Pregame: Illinois vs Chattanooga, Friday, March 18th, 5:50pm CT, TNT

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#326      
So let me get this straight we have a Chattanooga squad who only made it to the tourney by making a buzzer beater in OT to the beat the mighty Furman Paladins and haven't beaten one single quality opponent all year and all of a sudden a so called "expert" thinks they're going to beat a Co-regular season conference champion from one of the toughest conferences in the nation? Ok brah whatever you say.

We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.
 
#327      

sacraig

The desert
The only disappointment I'll feel after this season is disappointment that it's over. If we lay an egg at some point I'll be disappointed for a day or so, but I'm just so thrilled to be back where we belong as a program and nothing's going to take that feeling away for at least a couple more seasons.
 
#329      
Just got done watch Todd Fuhrman's Illinois/Chatanooga prediction on the CBS app. No surprise he picks Chatanooga, while saying we're a worse team when Curbelo is on the floor.
Well, if you look at record, he's right. If you toss out the games Curbelo played early on while dealing with the concussion (where we went 2-2), we were 7-6 with Curbelo and 13-1 without. Of course, that's completely ignoring opponent strength. The average opponent KenPom rank for the 13-1 was 119, while the average for the 7-6 was 45.
 
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#330      

the national

the Front Range
I think we beat Chatanooga handily. No answer for Kofi. I hope Curbelo just keeps himself under control and picks when he wants to do something amazing instead of trying for it every possession. I doubt Hawkins will shoot as well as he did against IU, but hopefully he keeps his effort on rebounding. He's had some huge putbacks and critical rebounds throughout the season. Houston maybe be tougher than expected. Their interior defense of the paint is really good. And they will swarm Kofi as soon as he gets the ball, so the guards have to knock shots down if both ILL and Houston play each other.

Playing Arizona again would be a dream. The first game was great, too bad Plummer messed up with that 5 second call at the end. If we get a hot shooting game from plummer, frazier and grandison, then we definitely have a chance to beat them.
I appreciate everyone’s desire to play AZ again. I’ll need to feed on your energy and appetite for that game - I’m totally nervous about it. We have to play better than we’ve shown in a while to even get there let along win. We certainly can but I’m just not sure we’ll be able to put it all together.
 
#331      
The only disappointment I'll feel after this season is disappointment that it's over. If we lay an egg at some point I'll be disappointed for a day or so, but I'm just so thrilled to be back where we belong as a program and nothing's going to take that feeling away for at least a couple more seasons.
Losing first round of the conf and national tourney is extremely painful not just for accolades, but the fact that a week ago I think we all would've expected at least 4 more games with this group of seniors+Kofi.

Last year was disappointing because we lost second round as a 1 seed. This year will be disappointing if we don't get a couple games with this group of seniors.
 
#332      
I like the first round matchup personally. They have one main guy we have to stop and he's 6'4". We've got a couple good guys to stop a player that size. If Smith was 6'7" then we have more of an issue.

Not sure how they stop Kofi unless their center goes back to his WWE roots.
I don't think that would end well for him, and bully boys tend to behave around those that are bigger and stronger.
 
#333      
Maaan I want to like this but some of the stats seem a little more retrofit-y than actually predictive. Like of course conference champs tend to win the tournament - because conference champs tend to be the best teams.
If you look at the comments someone points this out. This framework was done several years ago, and since then most of the champions have not fit these criteria as neatly as those that were champions prior to the framework. Baylor was 8/12. Seems like a correlation does not equal causation type deal.
 
#334      

sacraig

The desert
Curious why? (Honest question). I’ve only seen them in games where the looked good (3 or so games on ESPN). They have a few bad performances though
I've probably seen most of those bad games, haha.

I think they are as inconsistent as we are. They are capable of some really good play but also some really bad play. If they get and stay hot they can beat anyone. Of course, I feel essentially the same about us.
 
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#335      

the national

the Front Range
Let us begin the Illini revenge tour:

Round 1: Chattanooga (for 1997)
Round 2: Kelvin Sampson
Round 3: Arizona (for...any of the 8 times they beat Illinois since 2000)
Round 4: Loyola (for last year)
Round 5: Kansas (Self-inficted) or Auburn (a Pearl of a program)
Round 6: Purdue (for twice this year) or North Carolina (for 2005)
The Jordan approach - find ways to dislike the other team so you feel disrespected. It worked for him 😉
 
#336      
We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.
I totally get it, this team has been wildly inconsistent for most of the season and I even said in a previous post that I wasn't surprised when they were eliminated in the 1st round of the B10 Tournament, I'm just looking at the fact that Chattanooga hasn't beaten any quality opponents, at least PSU and Northwestern have posted upsets and giving every top B10 opponent a run for their money at least once.
 
#337      
I totally get it, this team has been wildly inconsistent for most of the season and I even said in a previous post that I wasn't surprised when they were eliminated in the 1st round of the B10 Tournament, I'm just looking at the fact that Chattanooga hasn't beaten any quality opponents, at least PSU and Northwestern have posted upsets and giving every top B10 opponent a run for their money at least once.

It's fair to say Chattanooga could probably win a couple B10 games if they played a 20 game slate. I view this game no differently than us going up against a lower-tier Big 10 team.
 
#339      
UCLA had them on the ropes last night. They are definitely beatable. Every game we have on out will require our best...
Kriisa didn’t play and his backup got into foul trouble. If Kriisa can’t play against the Illini should they meet, that will really help us.
 
#340      
It is hard to judge the Mocs. They have not played a single power 5 team all year. The best team they played most likely is Murray st and they lost. I think we smoke em. Take a look at their schedule and the results.
 
#342      

Cook

Richmond, VA
If y’all are basing coaching prowess on the outcomes of a single elimination tournament (referred to as madness) I don’t know what to tell you other than that’s the kind of thinking that leads to hiring John Groce.
Tourney coaching prowess, there is definitely a special art to tourney coaching. Some great coaches have mostly underperformed come tourney time. Keady might be a good example, Rick Barnes shows up on a lot of lists. I agree it shouldn't be the primary factor in hiring decisions. However, tournament results are a huge factor/metric in defining coaching and program success (and tied to $ bonuses for the coaches).

I think BU, who I fully believe is a great coach, still has some tourney success yet to prove. I think he will...
 
#343      
We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.
Didn’t the same guy say they’d beat Houston/UAB winner too though?
 
#344      

blackdog

Champaign
We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.

Notre Dame, Rutgers, Missouri, the first Maryland game, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana. All games decided by double digits or a lot more in some cases. I think they are more than capable of taking care of a business but they need to find that form they had in Dec/Jan
 
#345      
So let me get this straight we have a Chattanooga squad who only made it to the tourney by making a buzzer beater in OT to the beat the mighty Furman Paladins and haven't beaten one single quality opponent all year and all of a sudden a so called "expert" thinks they're going to beat a Co-regular season conference champion from one of the toughest conferences in the nation? Ok brah whatever you say.
De Souza is no slouch. Was 32nd ranked recruit out of high school. Went to Kansas a few years and had some attitude and off the court issues, transferred to Chattanooga at that point but the talent is still there. They are also a very old team with a lot of experience. Let’s not sell that team short.
 
#346      

danielb927

Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Tourney coaching prowess, there is definitely a special art to tourney coaching. Some great coaches have mostly underperformed come tourney time. Keady might be a good example, Rick Barnes shows up on a lot of lists. I agree it shouldn't be the primary factor in hiring decisions. However, tournament results are a huge factor/metric in defining coaching and program success (and tied to $ bonuses for the coaches).

I think BU, who I fully believe is a great coach, still has some tourney success yet to prove. I think he will...

I would be really interested if anyone has ever come across a rigorous statistical analysis of whether the bolded (which is certainly true) can be shown to be consistent with what you’d expect from random chance. The tournament is always a small sample size even in a long coaching career. You’re absolutely right that special “tournament coaching skill” would be huge from a program-building and revenue standpoint; it follows that every AD in the country should want our most accurate guess of whether it exists or not.
 
#347      
De Souza is no slouch. Was 32nd ranked recruit out of high school. Went to Kansas a few years and had some attitude and off the court issues, transferred to Chattanooga at that point but the talent is still there. They are also a very old team with a lot of experience. Let’s not sell that team short.
Payne was fairly high ranked in the 40's...nothing against him/you....just saying.
 
#348      
De Souza is no slouch. Was 32nd ranked recruit out of high school. Went to Kansas a few years and had some attitude and off the court issues, transferred to Chattanooga at that point but the talent is still there. They are also a very old team with a lot of experience. Let’s not sell that team short.
Payne was fairly high ranked in the 40's...nothing against him/you....just saying.
Agree. De Souza definitely has talent, but he doesn’t appear overly quick, not a crazy leaper and doesn’t stretch the floor. Those are the bigs that seem to give Kofi problems. He looks to play a similar style to Kofi, only he’s 3 inches shorter and about 40 pounds lighter. Should be a favorable matchup for us.
 
#349      

The Galloping Ghost

Washington, DC
Sure we can, but the probability of beating Houston is much lower than beating a team around 20th in the quantitative rankings. If we get to the next round, Houston will be favored. We should be slight favorites versus a 5 seed if we are a 4.
At this point, the bracket isn't changing. The path is what it is. Why waste even a second fretting about possible matchups when you can enjoy the fact we're back and relevant.

Personally, all I see in front of us is opportunity. If Houston wins their first-round game, great. It gives us a chance to beat Kelvin Sampson's cheating a$$, which will make getting to the sweet sixteen that much sweeter.

I don't care who we have to play. If we gotta face three number 1 seeds like Arizona did when they won in 1997 as a 4 seed, great. Bring it all the way on. As crazy people that spend their free time on a college message board, this is the best time of year. This is what it's all about. It's exciting and I can't wait to see how far we go.
 
#350      
I'm not worried about De Sousa. He didn't even make an All-Conference team.

Smith was the player of the year in the conference. we should absolutely be selling out on taking him away and make others beat us.
 
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