Pregame: Illinois vs Chattanooga, Friday, March 18th, 5:50pm CT, TNT

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#405      

CubsIlliniFan

C
CubsIlliniFan
BashCtIllini said:
Iowa is red hot. I've got them beating KU.
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Iowa will be spent. They played out of their minds this last weekend and a lot of the time, a conference winner who goes red hot loses steam when the tourney comes around. It could happen like UCONN did but its rare. We were emotionally spent after last year‘s B1G tourney. I doubt they have the same intensity this coming weekend.
 
#407      

21ChampaignSt

21ChampaignSt
21ChampaignSt
A couple trends I noticed when comparing Chattanooga and Houston to our other opponents this year. Not going to say there is any kind of predictive value here...just found it interesting. TIFWIW.

Most of my research was around roster make up since a popular theory about this team is that they struggle against long guards and bigs who can hold their own against Kofi. So, for each team, I counted the number of guards/wings over 6'4" that have a MIN% of 25+ (i.e. big guards who are in the regular rotation) and same for bigs who are over 6'9".

Chattanooga has 4 big guards/wings and 0 big PF/C's.
Houston has 1 big guard and 1 big PF/C.

In games that Kofi has played, Illinois is 6-0 against teams that have less than 3 big guards AND less than 2 big PF/C's.
In games that Kofi has played, Illinois is 17-3 against teams that have less than 2 big guards OR less than 2 big PF/C's. Rutgers, OSU, IND being the three losses.
Illinois is 9-2 against teams that have no regular rotation players taller than 6'9". OSU and IND being the two losses.
In games that Kofi has played, Illinois is 3-3 against teams with more than 3 big guards/wings. ND, Rutgers, and MD being the wins and Purdue x2 and Rutgers being the losses.

So what does it all mean? I don't know. Probably nothing. Maybe something. But I doubt Chattanooga or Houston are feeling overly confident about playing us.
 
#408      

BashCtIllini

BashCtIllini
BashCtIllini
CubsIlliniFan said:
Iowa will be spent. They played out of their minds this last weekend and a lot of the time, a conference winner who goes red hot loses steam when the tourney comes around. It could happen like UCONN did but its rare. We were emotionally spent after last year‘s B1G tourney. I doubt they have the same intensity this coming weekend.
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We are the only team to beat Iowa in their last 10 games. That includes wins over Purdue, Michigan State, and Ohio State, also @Michigan. They've only lost 2 of their last 15 games. They've got a 1st team All American and future lottery pick. That's not a team anyone wants to play.
 
#409      

fuggles

F
fuggles
BashCtIllini said:
We are the only team to beat Iowa in their last 10 games. That includes wins over Purdue, Michigan State, and Ohio State, also @Michigan. They've only lost 2 of their last 15 games. They've got a 1st team All American and future lottery pick. That's not a team anyone wants to play.
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And shooters everywhere on the floor. As a team 325 made 3pts. 10th in the nation. Bohannon has made 89 3pts. 2nd in the nation in scoring. 2932pts. And they are playing much better defense. We were lucky to beat them. They missed 12 FTs, 45%, averaging 75% on the year. Freakish.
 
#410      

Cook

Cook
Richmond, VA
Cook
danielb927 said:
I would be really interested if anyone has ever come across a rigorous statistical analysis of whether the bolded (which is certainly true) can be shown to be consistent with what you’d expect from random chance. The tournament is always a small sample size even in a long coaching career. You’re absolutely right that special “tournament coaching skill” would be huge from a program-building and revenue standpoint; it follows that every AD in the country should want our most accurate guess of whether it exists or not.
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Not the analysis requested, but some interesting data here
https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/indexb6a4.html?p=9088
 
#411      

ejam21

E
ejam21
727ill said:
We haven't done ourselves any favors to be honest. Not a single time this year have we taken care of business in a decisive fashion against a clearly inferior opponent (maybe only Minnesota?).

If we had beaten a few inferior teams handily (Cincinnati, Penn State, Northwestern) then I think the narrative changes.
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Didnt we beat IU by 17, rutgers by 30+? maryland by 13?, michigan by 15?

we have the third highest avg margin in the b10 (iowa first, purdue 2nd).

We had more double digit victories in b10 play than everyone in the league except iowa i believe

Penn state and NW played a lot of people close, as did neb (and beat some top teams). I dont htink not blowing out penn state, NW, etc is that huge a deal imo
 
#412      

Hopingfor500

H
Hopingfor500
ejam21 said:
Didnt we beat IU by 17, rutgers by 30+? maryland by 13?, michigan by 15?

we have the third highest avg margin in the b10 (iowa first, purdue 2nd).

We had more double digit victories in b10 play than everyone in the league except iowa i believe

Penn state and NW played a lot of people close, as did neb (and beat some top teams). I dont htink not blowing out penn state, NW, etc is that huge a deal imo
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The games you noted were pretty much in January, maybe the beginning of February. IU was our last convincing win. I can't think of a game otherwise where my pulse wasn't racing late.

As a sidenote, we also lost by double digits to that same Rutgers team, that same Maryland team, we lost to that Indiana team that we beat and thankfully Iowa went 9-21 from the foul line. From a results perspective, it's been bumpy over the last month. We started 10-2 and since then have gone 5-4. There's plenty of reason to question what team shows up.
 
#413      

Illini_1979

Illini_1979
Oregon
Illini_1979
This is the only Chattanooga fan forum that came up with a quick Google search. Minimal activity. Anybody know of another one?
 
#414      

ejam21

E
ejam21
Hopingfor500 said:
The games you noted were pretty much in January, maybe the beginning of February. IU was our last convincing win. I can't think of a game otherwise where my pulse wasn't racing late.

As a sidenote, we also lost by double digits to that same Rutgers team, that same Maryland team, we lost to that Indiana team the we beat and thankfully Iowa went 9-21 from the foul line. From a results perspective, it's been bumpy over the last month. We started 10-2 and since then have gone 5-4. There's plenty of reason to question what team shows up.
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Yeah its been bumpy, but htats the b10. Our schedule got much harder back half. 6 of those last 9 games were quad 1s and7 of them were tourney teams. My point is this league is a grind and itl be up and down usually unless we are elite elite. Plus we had personnel issues pretty much all year with players having to make up for the missing ppl..probably causes some wear down.

who hasnt been up and down in our league last 10 or so besdies iowa (who we beat)? Our cochampion has lost to rutgers/nebby at home and MSU in their back 9.
 
#416      

KnoxIllini2

KnoxIllini2
KnoxIllini2
Hopingfor500 said:
The games you noted were pretty much in January, maybe the beginning of February. IU was our last convincing win. I can't think of a game otherwise where my pulse wasn't racing late.

As a sidenote, we also lost by double digits to that same Rutgers team, that same Maryland team, we lost to that Indiana team that we beat and thankfully Iowa went 9-21 from the foul line. From a results perspective, it's been bumpy over the last month. We started 10-2 and since then have gone 5-4. There's plenty of reason to question what team shows up.
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Maryland was without Kofi so we weren’t the same team.

You’re exactly right though, which team is going to show up? We all enjoy the one that plays hard edgy defense, makes 3’s, and throws down a dunk or two.

If that team shows up, and not the one that’s timid and tense, bricking open looks, fumbling clear dunks, we will be partying like Pru Friday night.
 
#417      

BfosterL

BfosterL
BfosterL
danielb927 said:
Kerr Kriisa. He's the one out injured with an ankle. Check out the end of Robert's latest article if you want to see a photo of how it's recovering (no blood but you'd better not hate to see bruising).

illiniboard.com

Selection Sunday - Part II

I'm still trying to finalize my travel plans. I'll maybe take a break here and write for a bit and then get back to finalizing. Still have so many thoughts spinning through my head. I know I should probably talk about the matchups, and I will, but first I want to talk about where we stand on the...
illiniboard.com illiniboard.com
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Lots of pooled blood, would lead me to believe definite muscle and ligament damage.
 
#418      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
Cook said:
Tourney coaching prowess, there is definitely a special art to tourney coaching. Some great coaches have mostly underperformed come tourney time. Keady might be a good example, Rick Barnes shows up on a lot of lists. I agree it shouldn't be the primary factor in hiring decisions. However, tournament results are a huge factor/metric in defining coaching and program success (and tied to $ bonuses for the coaches).

I think BU, who I fully believe is a great coach, still has some tourney success yet to prove. I think he will...
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Wish I could double like this. So many unpredictable things can happen in the tournament which Is great for us fans, but some coaches’ style prevents them from rolling with it.
 
#420      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
The Galloping Ghost said:
At this point, the bracket isn't changing. The path is what it is. Why waste even a second fretting about possible matchups when you can enjoy the fact we're back and relevant.

Personally, all I see in front of us is opportunity. If Houston wins their first-round game, great. It gives us a chance to beat Kelvin Sampson's cheating a$$, which will make getting to the sweet sixteen that much sweeter.

I don't care who we have to play. If we gotta face three number 1 seeds like Arizona did when they won in 1997 as a 4 seed, great. Bring it all the way on. As crazy people that spend their free time on a college message board, this is the best time of year. This is what it's all about. It's exciting and I can't wait to see how far we go.
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This is why it’s important to make the tourney as much as possible because sometimes you get a good draw and sometimes it’s a bad draw. I’ll be surprised if we miss the tourney again under BU watch.
 
#421      

Saturdaze

S
Saturdaze
chrisRunner7 said:
I am totally nervous about every game, let alone a potential rematch with Arizona, and Arizona is a great team. HOWEVER...

I watched the extended highlights (i.e., MatthewLovesBall) of the Arizona game from December last night on YouTube, and I feel much better about a potential rematch. I recommend you watch it unless you don't feel like "looking past" the first weekend.

#1 - We were actually up by 13 in the first half, which I had totally forgotten about
#2 - Kofi played pretty bad in the first half (looked flustered, throwing up wild shots) but played a little better down the stretch, so I know he can do it against them
#3 - We will have Curbelo this time and they might possibly not have their starting PG
#4 - We gave up at least 10 or 15 points by having really dumb turnovers that they converted into fast break layups
#5 - Mathurin was hitting some ridiculous shots; I guess credit to him if he does it again

What we would need to do differently next time:

#1 - Limit those dumb turnovers
#2 - Kofi more composed for the whole game, and with enough rest that he doesn't look exhausted and fumbling the ball
#3 - On pick and roll defense, Kofi was sagging so far back that Kriisa was getting uncontested jumpers at the free throw line... I think this has to be fixed somehow but I'm not the coach
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Shout out for the MatthewLovesBall reference… he and WarrenNolan are two of CBBs unsung heroes.
 
#422      

1Illinifan

1
1Illinifan
To the Iowa lovers, I realize they are very good right now. We were better at this point last year though. The "March Mentality" started for us far too early last year, because, as Brad has said, we had something to prove in the Big Ten Tourney. "March" has started far too early for Iowa this year, because they were on the bubble, and they wanted to obviously play off that, and into a competitive position. My prediction: they get bounced early in a shootout, or the scoring disappears and they lose. This happens to someone every year.
 
#423      

zentrails

Z
zentrails
RabidDawgClassic said:
I’m so glad I’m not the only one who doesn’t remember anything about this guy. It’s as if the UI athletic department is gaslighting us to believe that Khalid Lewis was, in fact, a real person who played point guard for the men’s basketball team.
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I remember him. Groce was desperate for a PG that season (because Tracy Abrams ruptured his Achilles tendon) and signed him at the last minute as the best he could get at a late date. He had cool tattoos.
 
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