Illini Football 2022

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#229      

Don’t know much about this guy but he seems to know more about the beloved than your average YouTube talking head. He likes analytics and gives his take on the season

Interesting video and cool tidbits of info. Thanks for the link. Illinois is favored in 7 games this year? Why is all the talk about them possibly going 4-8 or 5-7?
 
#230      

touper

'burbs
Interesting video and cool tidbits of info. Thanks for the link. Illinois is favored in 7 games this year? Why is all the talk about them possibly going 4-8 or 5-7?
Yep, was confused by that as well…
 
#231      
Historically I'd err on the side of pessimism. Orange koolaid evaporates pretty quickly in the middle of an Illinois rebuild. However, the one thing we have going for us that we haven't had for a while is a very solid staff. We've got a lot of questions (which is usually TERRIBLE for us) but hopefully there are a few pleasant surprises this year.
 
#233      
I completely understand what you're saying here. Predicting the Illini schedule is like predicting the NCAA tournament games. You think something seems obvious but it's not. Side note: I love the fact that we get Wyoming at home to get the jitters out before a conference opponent, who will not have played their first game. Wyoming won't be a slouch but they lose a LOT from a good team. Solid program though, expecting a dawg fight but we take the reigns in the second half.
It’s interesting….last year first game vs Nebby. Frost was surprised by defense and threw out half the plays. Beneficial with new coaching staff. Surprise defense a plus.

This year new offensive game plan. Would also be beneficial to hide before first game. But, maybe will be better to have 1 game played for a new offense..harder to get up to speed. Tom Allen a good defensive mind and likely better adjusting than frost I believe, and lunney has film from UTSA, so maybe IU will be less surprised anyways. Could go either way.
 
#234      
Oof. Michigan and Nebraska fans are probably miffed.

Also IU and NU are too high.

We've got work to do.

If you are a 17 year old high school kid Northwestern has been way more relevant in their life than we’d like to admit. First round picks big ten championship game appearances.
 
#236      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Two things jump out:

The school whose brand we're trying to replicate is only 7th.

Dear god Nebraska. Do we end up looking back on them as a program for whom their offensive system was their only reason to exist as a major power? I can't think of another reference point like that in college football history.

I'd love to see the hypothetical world where they stayed the course with Frank Solich. They would surely be better off, right?
 
#241      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Was just wondering about him.

Best of luck to him, he's surely making the right decision if he ever wants to be a starter.

We're in a scary place at a position on the field that's nearly as important as all the others combined, there's no sugarcoating it. If the 2023 starter is a name we currently know, our 2025 coach probably won't be.
 
#242      

217sports

Springfield
Was just wondering about him.

Best of luck to him, he's surely making the right decision if he ever wants to be a starter.

We're in a scary place at a position on the field that's nearly as important as all the others combined, there's no sugarcoating it. If the 2023 starter is a name we currently know, our 2025 coach probably won't be.
I’d bet an extremely large sum it will be a transfer next year. Hopefully one with atleast 2 years eligibility
 
#243      
I think a lot of it depends on how much Bielema will adapt as a coach. Outside of Russell Wilson(a transfer) Bielema's QBs have never really lit up defenses.

I think if he let's Barry do his thing we'll be fine. It's probably too early to judge but I think Barry has until 2024(Bielema year 3) to really put a high caliber QB on the field.
 
#244      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I think a lot of it depends on how much Bielema will adapt as a coach. Outside of Russell Wilson(a transfer) Bielema's QBs have never really lit up defenses.
Nobody is going to put up Mike Leach numbers, but Bielema's teams have always gone as their QB play has gone. What you need is solidity, consistency, accuracy, good decision making.

A Russell Wilson would be great, but you've gotta have a Joel Stave.

Sitkowski is simply not enough of a strike thrower to be that, end of story, we've seen all we needed to see there. Leary is toolsy but his HS number were pretty bad and he also had accuracy problems. Cal Swanson seems like a lottery ticket at best.

DeVito is another Brandon Peters on the field, I say that as a relative Peters fan, and one gets the sense he's a bit more of a natural leader and voice in the huddle than Peters was. It seemed like it was a bit awkward that Sitkowski, who is everything you want in a QB leftward of his right shoulder, seemed like more of the boss of the team than Peters did.

If you look around college football, just stringing along transfers at QB forever is actually a relatively popular and viable option. But whether its transfers or HS recruits, high quality and depth remain essential and we're getting neither at the moment. We're okayish for 2022, but after DeVito there's nothing.
 
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#245      
Nobody is going to put up Mike Leach numbers, but Bielema's teams have always gone as their QB play has gone. What you need is solidity, consistency, accuracy, good decision making.

A Russell Wilson would be great, but you've gotta have a Joel Stave.

Sitkowski is simply not enough of a strike thrower to be that, end of story, we've seen all we needed to see there. Leary is toolsy but his HS number were pretty bad and he also had accuracy problems. Cal Swanson seems like a lottery ticket at best.

DeVito is another Brandon Peters on the field, I say that as a relative Peters fan, and one gets the sense he's a bit more of a natural leader and voice in the huddle than Peters was. It seemed like it was a bit awkward that Sitkowski, who is everything you want in a QB leftward of his right shoulder, seemed like more of the boss of the team than Peters did.

If you look around college football, just stringing along transfers at QB forever is actually a relatively popular and viable option. But whether its transfers or HS recruits, high quality and depth remain essential and we're getting neither at the moment. We're okayish for 2022, but after DeVito there's nothing.

If stringing along transfers is fine, which I agree it probably is, I think I'd worry a lot more if this season goes historically bad. I don't think it will.
 
#246      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
If stringing along transfers is fine, which I agree it probably is, I think I'd worry a lot more if this season goes historically bad. I don't think it will.
The trouble we run into is that yes, just kinda staying competent via the transfer market should be good enough, but because we ultimately don't ask our QB's to do that much, we aren't a particularly appealing QB destination. Turning around and giving Josh McCray the ball 30 times a game isn't what these guys are dreaming of.

My expectation is that the transition to Lunney is going to be more tweak than overhaul. We'll see.
 
#249      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
A good portion of the change is a function of what the QB brings. If DeVito is an adept passer, I think we'll see more than tweaks.
I doubt that's the shift. To quote our former coach, I think we're gonna get off the bus running the football for as long as Bielema is here.

We were 31st nationally at 57.39% running plays last year. UTSA was 51st at 54.69%.

The difference with Lunney is tempo.

We were 93rd nationally at 67.7 plays per game last year. UTSA was 30th at 73.8.

I am scared of tempo, frankly. Even teams that do it well are often robbing Peter to pay Paul in terms of keeping their defense rested. Our commitment to slow, methodical offensive football last year gave Ryan Walters the opportunity to do what he did.

That's my lingering concern with Lunney, who is in a vacuum a super exciting young coach and a grand slam hire. Either that he's going to have us playing too fast to maintain the Bielema-ian game control we were so successful with last year, or that Bielema is going to impose a tempo that takes Lunney out of his natural rhythm.

Rod and Lovie Smith were basically coaching against one another throughout their tenure. This is a more thoughtful administration than that was (and it would be incorrect to view Lunney as a blitzkrieg Holgorsen type, he isn't), but the same tension is there.
 
#250      

mhuml32

Cincinnati, OH
I am scared of tempo, frankly. Even teams that do it well are often robbing Peter to pay Paul in terms of keeping their defense rested. Our commitment to slow, methodical offensive football last year gave Ryan Walters the opportunity to do what he did.

This is my concern. I am also in the camp that doesn't want us to revert back to tempo similar to Rod Smith. Generally speaking I like offensive tempo but you need the talent to take advantage of the matchups/poor personnel it creates. I'm hoping Lunney splits the difference in the 2021 Illinois and UTSA's numbers and settles into a ~70 offensive plays/game. I'm almost hoping for something similar to Fleck's offensive philosophy of quick setup, decide if you like your matchups, then (a) go immediately if you do or (b) swap out personnel and slow down if you don't.

The hedge is that IW1 quotes from B1G media days, which is making it sound like this year's offense is going to be moving really quick. That might be fodder for media days or real insight into how things are going to be different.
 
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