IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
I appreciate the logistic struggle, but it's been like this thanks to TV scheduling for a while. You just gotta ask everyone to pick a weekend and clear the whole thing, inconvenient as it might be.
Pregame: Illinois vs Virginia, Saturday, September 10th, 3:00pm CT, ESPNU
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Exactly. If it was less than a week before it's announced, then I might seen an argument.
Analytics tells you to go for it every time in that situation….get it it virtually seals the deal….think it jumps winning probability up to 95-98% and if you don’t only drops win probability by 3ish %
All of us know that we gave the last game away. Looking at the upcoming schedule we just need to stay healthy the next two games. After the Virginia game on September 10th we have Chattanooga on September 22nd and than Wisconsin on October 1st. We have a little depth at positions but losing starters is always going to hurt. BB is looking to use more RB depth so Chase Brown can stay fresh and healthy the whole year.
I still think BB has us ahead of schedule. Few little things I have noticed in the first two games. TOP is going to keep us in a lot of games. Last year we were 83rd in the country with TOP at 29:19.
Our time of possession is great and almost identical both games. TOP vs Wyoming was 36:36 TOP vs Indiana was 36:33
Total Yards vs Wyoming 477 yards Total Yards vs Indiana 451 yards Last season we went over 400 Total Yards 3 times. Illinois averaged 329.8 yards/game last season(bottom 20).
I still think BB has us ahead of schedule. Few little things I have noticed in the first two games. TOP is going to keep us in a lot of games. Last year we were 83rd in the country with TOP at 29:19.
Our time of possession is great and almost identical both games. TOP vs Wyoming was 36:36 TOP vs Indiana was 36:33
Total Yards vs Wyoming 477 yards Total Yards vs Indiana 451 yards Last season we went over 400 Total Yards 3 times. Illinois averaged 329.8 yards/game last season(bottom 20).
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Illinois -4.5, on the other hand, is very surprising to me.
I know that per the Illinois law you are able to bet on in-state college games in person at sportsbooks but not on the app, but I've also read that they don't bother offering them at the sportsbooks either, does anyone have any experience or guidance in that regard?
This was what the metrics we’re saying.
While I’ll never fault aggressiveness (not foolhardy aggressiveness like never punting) I would have kicked for the points. And I said that real time as well, not just in hindsight.
We had just gotten to the 6th utilizing a a DPI when we were looking at 3rd and 13. We had gashed them for big yardage (16 or so yards per play) until we got to the red zone where IU got stiff and started to block up the running lanes.
When we got to the 6 and couldn’t put up more than 5 yards in 3 plays, my brain would say, “their D isn’t on their heals, they are locked in. I’m taking points since they are so hard to come by in this game”. It was 17-16 at that moment.
Stats and metrics are important and should be a factor but they are built with algorithms that utilize massive amounts of big data from thousands of teams/plays throughout many years. They don’t define our game/momentum/flow…they are simply numbers.
I would have looked at the above metric and instead of using the red numbers on the left, I would have used the black ones on the far right.
With how things had been going (5 yards in 3 plays) I would have assumed the IU D was going to get a stop regardless of our play call and chosen the FG. With that mentality, a FG puts our win % at 69 above a failure when going for it which is at 65.
But, that’s just me. I don’t fault the aggressiveness , like I said. And the real sin may be Lunney’s play calling. Seeing how he does in the red zone may be something to watch.
And just so nobody thinks I’m an anti-stats guy, I was 100% with the metrics last year when they said go for it against Maryland and Purdue. It’s a situation by situation thing.
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They should have the schedule set before they sell season tickets. Fans with a several hour drive shouldn't have a Thursday game sprung on them long after the tickets are bought.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Just to note: the NFL analytics are going to be different for a variety of reasons. Probably doesn't change the overall takeaway, but kicker quality is way different the NFL, the clock works differently in the NFL, etc etc.
And anyway, I agree and said it loudly the second we were stuffed on 3rd down, take the points and keep playing.
In a situation like that I would go for it 9 times out of 10. We score a TD and the way our defense is playing we pretty much put the game away. Also, you go for a FG in that situation and you basically tell your offense you have no faith in them. Not saying you are doing this, but I suspect a lot of people are using hindsight bias to color their opinion here.
I took that from somebody else who had posted in a chat.
Any chance there is a similar college product?
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The reason the Purdue and Maryland decisions were wrong wasn't some culture establishment thing, it's because 25 yards of field position was basically worthless in those situations, nowhere near as valuable as even a small chance at a first down. In any kind of football the 4th and 1 in plus territory thing is not even close, punting being the conventional wisdom there was ten times more irrational than anything traditional baseball managers were doing.
Going from a 1 point lead to 4 on the other hand was quite valuable in the Indiana situation. Not valuable enough though, alas.
There might be, but college is a more diverse game so it's a bit harder to make apples-to-apples comparisons.
Incidentally that's why college football is more fun to watch than the NFL.
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Your fourth paragraph summarizes the issue I have following analytics blindly. They are a tool, but they can’t incorporate the exact game situation/flow that is taking place nor the quality of the teams. I realize that by using great amounts of data you try to minimize the impact of those things, but I still believe analytics are a tool that need to be used within the framework of your team, your opponent and the flow and how the game has played out thus far.
Live I was advocating to take the points. That doesn’t mean that given similar circumstances in a different game I would be against going for it. I just felt in that game, the way it was being played, and the way the Illini were playing, taking the points at that time was the best thing to do.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Right, though I think that's where you also have to know the difference between the numbers revealing one thing being an advantage versus there being just no comparison between two options whatsoever.
No game flow "feel" exists where you punt on a 4th and 1 in plus territory. Wrong in absolutely every circumstance. The decision in that Indiana game was a closer call and had more inputs to it.
I’d like to agree, but I really want the flexibility to get a 3:30 slot if we happen to be 4-1 playing a 3-2 Iowa rather than just get locked into all 11am kicks all season because we’ve been so bad
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I believe all the weeknight games are set before the season for exactly that reason.
And homecoming is always set as 11AM because that's the only timeslot you can "guarantee", which they want in order to set other homecoming-related events in stone several months out.
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
One thing that Bielema has corrected is that at least physically/athletically we are not overmatched on a weekly basis, which often happened under the previous two administrations.
This is the biggest thing we look like a team that is supposed to be on the field at least physically. All that while recruiting the same *level as Lovie and Beans and Weenies where we looked like a MAC team. BB and his staff seem to be able develop players.
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
I was very concerned this was going to be a problem considering the massive turnover and the number of guys with the the extra covid years that were lost from last season but I've been very impressed with the physicality of the Illini so far.
Close call I agree but I was in the camp of going for it. Felt it would be too deflating for us to settle for 3 and would fire up Indiana (yes, our getting zero points also fired them up).
My problem was the absolute lack of any creative or diversionary play calling. Basically ran the same play three times, and as others have said, the entire planet knew where the ball was going. Chase is our best, yes, but we have to be able to do more than straight up the middle again and again.
Epsilon
M tipping over
- Pdx
One of the most misunderstood things about stats is the assumptions going into a model. Like you said, there is hopefully enough data to make a model valid, but that doesn’t mean that those percentages apply equally to any one specific situation. It applies to all situations that went into the data building the model. In other words, each situation has an inherent bias vs all other data and its contingent probability (based on those specific circumstances) may be different than that of the rest of the data. For example, those percentages of success also include situations where your team has been ramming it down their throat in the red zone repeatedly, etc. All this is to say that game flow does matter, because your situation may be one of those areas that ‘stresses’ a model more than others.
Finally, I get to put my Masters in Predictive Analytics to work lol.
I think one issue of having an entirely new scheme and OC is that by start of season only basics are in and new OC hasn't had time to develop wrinkles for specific situations like this. Maybe end of season we have confidence and plays that play off our tendencies at the goal line, but right now with the personnel available (no McCray) we didn't have as many options as we would have needed for that scenario.
OK fine. I was just trying to get feedback from people with more acuity than I have about possibilities for game time not officially announced. Basically, I was trying to determine if there was any possibility it could be an evening game?
It is funny because one of the reasons I thought they should take the points is because if they get stuffed that is a huge “live ball” lift for Indiana versus a much milder lift they’d get by holding Illini to a field goal. Given how the game was going and the play of D, I didn’t want IU getting any huge lifts getting crowd riled up. I agree wholeheartedly that if you’re going to go for it — likely knew you were going to go for it when series started — the play calling for the whole series not just the last play wasn’t good at all.
The other thing I think is overlooked in situations like this is what it impact it has on our D. Somebody in this thread mentioned by not going for it you’re telling your offense you don’t have faith in it (which I think is often over exaggerated). But by going for it and not making it, are you telling your D, looks like you’re in this alone? And in the fact that D holds them and then offense turns the ball over next possession. Going for the points gives D a little breathing room and acts almost as a “reward.”
This is what I’ve wanted to say — but had no idea how to — every time analytics are brought up. Thank you.
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