there is really no way, if we win every single remaining game on the schedule and the B1G CG.In all seriousness, and I know this is far-fetched still at this point, but would they leave us out of the final four if we win out against Mich, OSU, etc? I have a feeling that they would.
No chance - we beat 2 top 4 teams in 3 weeks and we are a lockIn all seriousness, and I know this is far-fetched still at this point, but would they leave us out of the final four if we win out against Mich, OSU, etc? I have a feeling that they would.
I just think they would take the SEC winner, a one loss SEC team, TCU and Clemson. I still think they would leave us out. They would take a one loss Michigan or Ohio State, but not us.No chance - we beat 2 top 4 teams in 3 weeks and we are a lock
I just think they would take the SEC winner, a one loss SEC team, TCU and Clemson. I still think they would leave us out. They would take a one loss Michigan or Ohio State, but not us.
If this all pans out, which if we are being honest is still far-fetched, I hope you are right. But for us to even be having the conversation........wow!The committee can't leave us out because of our 2 top 5 wins. It just wouldn't happen. If either Clemson and/or TCU pick up a loss then they are the ones worried about 2 SEC teams getting in, because both of those schools would have zero top 10 wins. Clemson might not have any top 20 wins by the end of the year.
I posted this in the last bowl thread, but since the BCS era, there have been 5 somewhat similar occurrences to the one you are suggesting in a 12-1B10 Champ Illinois vs. an at-large 12-1 OSU, or a 12-1 SEC team. In 3 of the 5 scenarios, the team most resembling Illinois was given the higher seed while in 2 of the 5 scenarios it has gone to a 12-1 OSU or 12-1 SEC team. It is entirely possible the committee puts an OSU team with wins (vND,@PSU, vMich) and loss (N-ILL) ahead of us with wins (@Mich, N-OSU) and loss (@Ind) (similar to 2008-09 Oklahoma over Texas). And as seen in 2011-12 Alabama over Oklahoma State, a 1 loss at-large SEC team can be selected over a 1 -loss Power 5 champion. And similarly, it may be possible that a 1 loss Pac10 Champ would get selected ahead of us. So based on historical evidence, I do not believe that a 12-1 Illinois is a clear cut playoff selection at this time (assuming an undefeated Clemson and TCU team). However, a ton can and likely will change in the next few weeks.In all seriousness, and I know this is far-fetched still at this point, but would they leave us out of the final four if we win out against Mich, OSU, etc? I have a feeling that they would.
2008 OSU won the title game and went to BCS. That resembles us more than Texas.I posted this in the last bowl thread, but since the BCS era, there have been 5 somewhat similar occurrences to the one you are suggesting in a 12-1B10 Champ Illinois vs. an at-large 12-1 OSU, or a 12-1 SEC team. In 3 of the 5 scenarios, the team most resembling Illinois was given the higher seed while in 2 of the 5 scenarios it has gone to a 12-1 OSU or 12-1 SEC team. It is entirely possible the committee puts an OSU team with wins (vND,@PSU, vMich) and loss (N-ILL) ahead of us with wins (@Mich, N-OSU) and loss (@Ind) (similar to 2008-09 Oklahoma over Texas). And as seen in 2011-12 Alabama over Oklahoma State, a 1 loss at-large SEC team can be selected over a 1 -loss Power 5 champion. And similarly, it may be possible that a 1 loss Pac10 Champ would get selected ahead of us. So based on historical evidence, I do not believe that a 12-1 Illinois is a clear cut playoff selection at this time (assuming an undefeated Clemson and TCU team). However, a ton can and likely will change in the next few weeks.
Assuming we only lose to Michigan and OSU the rest of the way? I'd say 50%.If scUM and OSU somehow end up in the playoffs, what would our Rose Bowl chances be?
So I had 5 years on my shortlist of closest comparables ('00-'01 Wash (10-1) over OSU (10-1), '08-'09 OU (12-1) over Texas (11-1). '10-'11 Wisky (11-1) over OSU (11-1), '11-'12 Bama (11-1) over Ok. St. (11-1), and '14-'15 Baylor (11-1) over TCU (11-1)), but 2008 was not one of them. In the '07-'08 year you are referencing, OSU went 11-1 but the closest B10 team to them had a 9-3 record, so I wouldn't consider that a close comparable. An 11-1 team from a major conference should definitely be selected over a 9-3 team from that same conference. As well, as to why OSU was selected to appear in the title game that year at 11-1, there were zero teams from major conferences that went undefeated that year, and there was only one other 1 loss team from a major conference in Kansas at 11-1 and they didn't even make their conference championship. In any case, I don't think that year is a good comparable for what our situation would be.2008 OSU won the title game and went to BCS. That resembles us more than Texas.
I think if Alabama wins the SEC championship. They take Alabama and the winner of TN and GA (championship loser). If Alabam loses the SEC championship, they take TN and GA.I think the CFP nightmare scenario is:
Alabama beats LSU and goes to the SEC championship game with 1 loss.
The winner of TN / Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship
The SEC winds up with THREE 1 loss powerhouses, which have only lost to each other, and have to deal with the fallout of either putting all 3 in, or leaving one or two out.
Of course, it won't matter when they lose to Illinois.
Wow, that's a pretty feasible scenario in the SEC. (Good one Cal!)I think the CFP nightmare scenario is:
Alabama beats LSU and goes to the SEC championship game with 1 loss.
The winner of TN / Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship
The SEC winds up with THREE 1 loss powerhouses, which have only lost to each other, and have to deal with the fallout of either putting all 3 in, or leaving one or two out.
Of course, it won't matter when they lose to Illinois.
My point is that OSU went over Texas because they won the conference title game. That would be us.So I had 5 years on my shortlist of closest comparables ('00-'01 Wash (10-1) over OSU (10-1), '08-'09 OU (12-1) over Texas (11-1). '10-'11 Wisky (11-1) over OSU (11-1), '11-'12 Bama (11-1) over Ok. St. (11-1), and '14-'15 Baylor (11-1) over TCU (11-1)), but 2008 was not one of them. In the '07-'08 year you are referencing, OSU went 11-1 but the closest B10 team to them had a 9-3 record, so I wouldn't consider that a close comparable. An 11-1 team from a major conference should definitely be selected over a 9-3 team from that same conference. As well, as to why OSU was selected to appear in the title game that year at 11-1, there were zero teams from major conferences that went undefeated that year, and there was only one other 1 loss team from a major conference in Kansas at 11-1 and they didn't even make their conference championship. In any case, I don't think that year is a good comparable for what our situation would be.
That said, if you are looking for years that are historically favorable to Illinois,
'00-'01 Wash (10-1) over Or. St. (10-1)
'10-'11 Wisky (11-1) over OSU (11-1)
'14-'15 Baylor (11-1) over TCU (11-1)
Are all seasons where the Conference Champion with a win over their conference opponent has finished with a higher seeding than that opponent despite that opponent having a better loss/tougher schedule or both.
So overall, I'm not saying Illinois can't or wouldn't be selected if it were to happen that Illinois and OSU both went 12-1 with OSU's lone loss coming to Illinois in the B10 Championship, just that based upon history, it's unfortunately not clear cut Illinois would automatically be given a playoff spot.
Now would all hell break loose if say a 12-1 OSU were selected over a 12-1 Illinois immediately after losing to them in the Championship game? Yeah, for sure, but proponents will justify it by saying OSU played the tougher overall schedule and tougher nonconference schedule, had the much better loss, and that they are simply a more talented team based on the recruits they have on paper and preseason ranking (this part should not come into play but does).
And then for the SEC, can we really be certain they wouldn't take a 1 loss Tennessee team or a 1 loss Georgia team over us? I think that really, to be 100% assured of a playoff spot, we would need to not only do the tremendously difficult deed of winning out, but we'd also need a little help in both Clemson and TCU picking up a loss. That said, for us even to put ourselves into a conversation like this at this point is truly incredible.
Texas was 9-3 in the '07-'08 season. They were never in consideration for a playoff spot. I just don't see the comparison. In '07-'08, OSU had 1 loss and every other Power 5/6 team had at least 2 losses aside from Kansas who didn't even make it to their conference championship. It's just not a similar comparison to two Power 5/6 teams with only 1 loss which is what we'd be talking about in this case.My point is that OSU went over Texas because they won the conference title game. That would be us.
The Rose Bowl is obligated to take the B1G Champ, unless they are in the College Football Playoffs. In that case the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the next highest ranked team. If both OSU and scUM are in the CFP, the next highest ranked team goes to the Rose Bowl.If scUM and OSU somehow end up in the playoffs, what would our Rose Bowl chances be?
I'm talking about the 08-09 season that you referenced in your original post. You suggested that osu over Texas was an example that went against illinois. I think it's an example that goes for illinois because the bcs bid went to the winner of the conference championship game.Texas was 9-3 in the '07-'08 season. They were never in consideration for a playoff spot. I just don't see the comparison. In '07-'08, OSU had 1 loss and every other Power 5/6 team had at least 2 losses aside from Kansas who didn't even make it to their conference championship. It's just not a similar comparison to two Power 5/6 teams with only 1 loss which is what we'd be talking about in this case.
That would be an absolute nightmare, but I'll try out what I think the committee would pick:Wow, that's a pretty feasible scenario in the SEC. (Good one Cal!)
12-1 ALA - conf champ (loss to TENN)
12-1 UGA (loss to ALA)
11-1 TENN (loss to UGA)
13-0 CLEM - conf champ
13-0 TCU - conf champ
12-1 ILL - conf champ (loss to IND)
12-1 OSU (loss to ILL)
12-1 OREG - conf champ (blow out loss to UGA)
Good luck to the Committee!!
While our bowl projections see the Pac-12 miss out on the College Football Playoff once more, if Oregon continues on their current trajectory, they will prove a very difficult program for the committee to ignore. Since their Week 1 beatdown at the hands of the Bulldogs, the Ducks have been dominant as Bo Nix has established himself as a genuine Heisman Trophy contender. Will the nature of that defeat prevent them from ascending?
While that could be debated for weeks to come, there’s no denying the Ducks’ Rose Bowl candidacy. The same can be said for Illinois, who ascend into the third-ranked Big Ten spot vacated by Penn State following the Nittany Lions’ second defeat of the season. With Chase Brown and Tommy DeVito playing offense at a high level and a defense that leads the nation in several metrics, Bret Bielema’s team returns to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2007.
This game would present an interesting contrast of styles. Under coach Bret Bielema, Illinois played a hard-nosed style of football perfect for the Big Ten West. The offense takes a run-first approach and the defense is aggressive and elite at forcing turnovers. Ole Miss is known for its speed on offense with Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo approach and an exotic three-down linemen defense that gets creative with blitzes and coverage schemes. Those juxtaposed ideologies would make this game well worth watching.
Dec. 30 | Capital One Orange Bowl | Illinois vs. North Carolina |
[T]hough No. 17 Illinois will have some words about that one. The Fighting Illini looked good defeating Nebraska to earn their 7th win of the year. Illinois’ matchup against Michigan in mid-November would catapult the Illini over Penn State’s tougher schedule. There seems to be little chance Illinois falls lower than a Citrus Bowl selection barring a major collapse.