Dan
Bowl/Playoff Projections - Illinois #16 in CFB Playoff Top 25
- Status
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
there is really no way, if we win every single remaining game on the schedule and the B1G CG.
We'd be 12-1, with games over scUM and tO$U in the final two weeks
No chance - we beat 2 top 4 teams in 3 weeks and we are a lock
I just think they would take the SEC winner, a one loss SEC team, TCU and Clemson. I still think they would leave us out. They would take a one loss Michigan or Ohio State, but not us.
The committee can't leave us out because of our 2 top 5 wins. It just wouldn't happen. If either Clemson and/or TCU pick up a loss then they are the ones worried about 2 SEC teams getting in, because both of those schools would have zero top 10 wins. Clemson might not have any top 20 wins by the end of the year.
If this all pans out, which if we are being honest is still far-fetched, I hope you are right. But for us to even be having the conversation........wow!
I posted this in the last bowl thread, but since the BCS era, there have been 5 somewhat similar occurrences to the one you are suggesting in a 12-1B10 Champ Illinois vs. an at-large 12-1 OSU, or a 12-1 SEC team. In 3 of the 5 scenarios, the team most resembling Illinois was given the higher seed while in 2 of the 5 scenarios it has gone to a 12-1 OSU or 12-1 SEC team. It is entirely possible the committee puts an OSU team with wins (vND,@PSU, vMich) and loss (N-ILL) ahead of us with wins (@Mich, N-OSU) and loss (@Ind) (similar to 2008-09 Oklahoma over Texas). And as seen in 2011-12 Alabama over Oklahoma State, a 1 loss at-large SEC team can be selected over a 1 -loss Power 5 champion. And similarly, it may be possible that a 1 loss Pac10 Champ would get selected ahead of us. So based on historical evidence, I do not believe that a 12-1 Illinois is a clear cut playoff selection at this time (assuming an undefeated Clemson and TCU team). However, a ton can and likely will change in the next few weeks.
2008 OSU won the title game and went to BCS. That resembles us more than Texas.
Assuming we only lose to Michigan and OSU the rest of the way? I'd say 50%.
Probably us or PSU.
So I had 5 years on my shortlist of closest comparables ('00-'01 Wash (10-1) over OSU (10-1), '08-'09 OU (12-1) over Texas (11-1). '10-'11 Wisky (11-1) over OSU (11-1), '11-'12 Bama (11-1) over Ok. St. (11-1), and '14-'15 Baylor (11-1) over TCU (11-1)), but 2008 was not one of them. In the '07-'08 year you are referencing, OSU went 11-1 but the closest B10 team to them had a 9-3 record, so I wouldn't consider that a close comparable. An 11-1 team from a major conference should definitely be selected over a 9-3 team from that same conference. As well, as to why OSU was selected to appear in the title game that year at 11-1, there were zero teams from major conferences that went undefeated that year, and there was only one other 1 loss team from a major conference in Kansas at 11-1 and they didn't even make their conference championship. In any case, I don't think that year is a good comparable for what our situation would be.
That said, if you are looking for years that are historically favorable to Illinois,
'00-'01 Wash (10-1) over Or. St. (10-1)
'10-'11 Wisky (11-1) over OSU (11-1)
'14-'15 Baylor (11-1) over TCU (11-1)
Are all seasons where the Conference Champion with a win over their conference opponent has finished with a higher seeding than that opponent despite that opponent having a better loss/tougher schedule or both.
So overall, I'm not saying Illinois can't or wouldn't be selected if it were to happen that Illinois and OSU both went 12-1 with OSU's lone loss coming to Illinois in the B10 Championship, just that based upon history, it's unfortunately not clear cut Illinois would automatically be given a playoff spot.
Now would all hell break loose if say a 12-1 OSU were selected over a 12-1 Illinois immediately after losing to them in the Championship game? Yeah, for sure, but proponents will justify it by saying OSU played the tougher overall schedule and tougher nonconference schedule, had the much better loss, and that they are simply a more talented team based on the recruits they have on paper and preseason ranking (this part should not come into play but does).
And then for the SEC, can we really be certain they wouldn't take a 1 loss Tennessee team or a 1 loss Georgia team over us? I think that really, to be 100% assured of a playoff spot, we would need to not only do the tremendously difficult deed of winning out, but we'd also need a little help in both Clemson and TCU picking up a loss. That said, for us even to put ourselves into a conversation like this at this point is truly incredible.
Last edited:
Latest ESPN.com bowl projections:
-Schlabach: Capital One Orange vs. North Carolina
-Bonagura: Reliaquest vs. LSU
-Schlabach: Capital One Orange vs. North Carolina
-Bonagura: Reliaquest vs. LSU
I think the CFP nightmare scenario is:
Alabama beats LSU and goes to the SEC championship game with 1 loss.
The winner of TN / Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship
The SEC winds up with THREE 1 loss powerhouses, which have only lost to each other, and have to deal with the fallout of either putting all 3 in, or leaving one or two out.
Of course, it won't matter when they lose to Illinois.
Alabama beats LSU and goes to the SEC championship game with 1 loss.
The winner of TN / Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC championship
The SEC winds up with THREE 1 loss powerhouses, which have only lost to each other, and have to deal with the fallout of either putting all 3 in, or leaving one or two out.
Of course, it won't matter when they lose to Illinois.
I think if Alabama wins the SEC championship. They take Alabama and the winner of TN and GA (championship loser). If Alabam loses the SEC championship, they take TN and GA.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Wow, that's a pretty feasible scenario in the SEC. (Good one Cal!)
12-1 ALA - conf champ (loss to TENN)
12-1 UGA (loss to ALA)
11-1 TENN (loss to UGA)
13-0 CLEM - conf champ
13-0 TCU - conf champ
12-1 ILL - conf champ (loss to IND)
12-1 OSU (loss to ILL)
12-1 OREG - conf champ (blow out loss to UGA)
Good luck to the Committee!!
My point is that OSU went over Texas because they won the conference title game. That would be us.
Texas was 9-3 in the '07-'08 season. They were never in consideration for a playoff spot. I just don't see the comparison. In '07-'08, OSU had 1 loss and every other Power 5/6 team had at least 2 losses aside from Kansas who didn't even make it to their conference championship. It's just not a similar comparison to two Power 5/6 teams with only 1 loss which is what we'd be talking about in this case.
Illinir1
- Camdenton, MO
The Rose Bowl is obligated to take the B1G Champ, unless they are in the College Football Playoffs. In that case the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the next highest ranked team. If both OSU and scUM are in the CFP, the next highest ranked team goes to the Rose Bowl.
I'm talking about the 08-09 season that you referenced in your original post. You suggested that osu over Texas was an example that went against illinois. I think it's an example that goes for illinois because the bcs bid went to the winner of the conference championship game.
That would be an absolute nightmare, but I'll try out what I think the committee would pick:
1. TCU (No 0 loss team from a major conference has ever been left out, also their SOS and wins are quite good)
2. Clemson (No 0 loss team from a major conference has ever been left out, despite the extremely weak schedule, they're in)
3. Alabama (Would be considered best team in strongest conference, and their SOS would be strongest of the 1 loss champs)
4. Georgia (Selection would upset a ton of people, but I think their wins over Oregon and Tennessee would be considered the tiebreaker despite not being a conf. Champion and them possibly considering Illinois and OSU cancelling each other out)
Rose Bowl: Illinois vs. Oregon (the game between the 2 teams thinking they were straight up snubbed)
Sugar Bowl: OSU vs. Tennessee (Tenn would be out of playoffs because they didn't make their championship game, OSU out of playoffs as committee would have to justify taking them over Illinois)
redwingillini11
White and Sixth
- North Aurora
2023 College Football Bowl Predictions - NCAA Bowl Game Projections
CBS Sports bowl expert Jerry Palm picks the teams he feels will comprise the National Semi-final at the end of the season along with bowl projections for every single game.
www.cbssports.com
College Football Bowl Projections 2022: Illinois Fighting Illini Instigate Postseason Party in Pasadena
The Illinois Fighting Illini book a postseason berth in Pasadena in our latest college football bowl projections following Week 9 of the 2022 season.
www.profootballnetwork.com
Rose Bowl | Oregon vs. Illinois
Bowl projections: How this weekend's results impact all the matchups
The teams at the top solidified their standing, but the rest of the bowl picture gets its weekly shakeup.
-Bonagura: Reliaquest vs. LSU
College football Week 10 bowl projections: Illinois, North Carolina move into New Year's Day Six | Sporting News
Three surprise one-loss teams moved into the New Year’s Day Six in our Week 10 bowl projections.
www.sportingnews.com
| Dec. 30 | Capital One Orange Bowl | Illinois vs. North Carolina |
Week 10 College Football Bowl Predictions: Brett McMurphy's Updated Projections With Projected Spreads
Read on for Brett McMurphy's updated college football bowl projections, along with projected spreads, ahead of Week 10.
www.actionnetwork.com
ReliaQuest Bowl
Monday, Jan. 2⋅
Tampa, FL
Illinois
PK
Kentucky
PK
Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 9
What are the bowl projections and the College Football Playoff calls after Week 9 of the college football season?
sports.yahoo.com
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Monday, January 2, 20231:00, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Last Year: Kentucky 20, Iowa 17
Bowl Ties: Big Ten vs SEC
Bowl Projection: Illinois vs Ole Miss
College Football Bowl Projections for 2022-23
Projecting every bowl and playoff games for 2022-23 college football season.
athlonsports.com
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 2)
Tie-In: Big Ten vs. SECProjection: Illinois vs. LSU
College football bowl projections, Playoff after Week 9 - Sports Illustrated
Little changed at the top of the sport this past weekend, but that doesn’t mean things won’t change a lot going forward.
www.si.com
SEC vs. Big Ten
Ole Miss vs. Illinois
B1G bowl projections following Week 9
In our B1G bowl projections following Week 9, we still have 9 of the 14 league teams reaching the postseason.
saturdaytradition.com
From the same article.
Realistically, the CFP field has been whittled to 13 teams—the group of Power 5 programs that have one loss or fewer. That list: Clemson, North Carolina, TCU, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Oregon, USC, UCLA, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi.
Even if getting into the CFP doesn't (and probably won't) happen, what a special season. Before the season I said 7-5 is the ceiling and 4-8 is the floor.
Astounding.
- Status