Pregame: Illinois vs Nebraska, Tuesday, January 31st, 6:00pm CT, BTN

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#77      
Illinois wins in a good shooting night, 84-67.

I'll add Epps getting a new career high, which means he needs at least 22.

He's been in double figures a lot recently, 8 of the last 10 games, despite only shooting 31% from 3 during that stretch. I think he's a better shooter than that, and wouldn't be surprised if he starts showing it here soon.
 
#78      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
thinker01.jpeg
I've been pondering this game for a while now.........( not really , but it sounded good )..........nebby is a game we should win by double digits if we play anything close to our average game , especially at home.........

We need to keep on keepin on , as we overcome the terrible 0-3 start to the B$G........Many changes have been made this year on offense and defense that has refined our play to use our strength's to our best advantage........MM has been profusive in his praise of BU and staff for making said changes and our record shows the changes have been what we needed to get back in the thick of the B$G race........

The one thing I still have a problem with is the amount that the losses have been by , usually in double figures......is it because of the great play by our opponents or a lack of cohesion by the Illini players........2 games that I had counted before the season as wins were the loss to psu , at home , and the road loss to the mildcats.......Therefore , I am not overlooking any B$G game remaining in the season.................Pondering this subject has led me down that pondering wandering path and let's just get it out in public before i make my prediction of tonight's game ....therefore , the pondering rainbow as we know it .................................

rooks11.jpg


WOW................now my mind is focused on the task at hand and I believe............................

Illini 82
nebby 69

rooks16.jpg


pru , as usual I concur with your well thought out prediction and am looking forward to your dancing gifts post game .....I really really am .......................................

lv07.gif


The Illini are in good hands.................................I believe..............................

WMaa3IT.gif
 
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#79      

Goillinikobd

Southeastern US
Ok. Serious question here. Me = engineer, used probability distribution functions as part of work for some number of years. Wife = advanced degree in mathematics, PhD in physics, uses a lot of statistics. Neither of us has heard of "true mean". What is this? Who made this up? Why?
From internet
A3B80316-7B5F-4C59-8E2C-0B69CD6EF3AD.jpeg
 
#80      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
The one thing I still have a problem with is the amount the losses have been by , usually in double figures......is it because of the great play by our opponents or a lack of cohesion by the Illini players........2 games that I had counted before the season as wins were the loss to psu , at home , and the road loss to the mildcats.......Therefore , I am not overlooking any B$G game remaining in the season.................Pondering this subject has lead me down that pondering wanderingpath and let's just get it out in public before i make my prediction of tonight's game ....therefore , the pondering rainbow as we know it .................................

Brother Pru, I'm on your wavelngth. I, too, have pondered this. The NW, Miznoz and PSU losses I chalk up to poor cohesion. We're long past that, for whatever reason... Skyy stepping away from the team, MM and BU achieving an understanding, and, most importantly, IMO, the team learning to play together and defend relentlessly.

BU explained away the IU blowout with the "tired legs" and "MM sick" excuse. While the latter was certainly relevant, I'm not buying the former. We all recall some absolutely brutal stretches, in 2021 for example, when the boys had multiple 2- or 3-day turnarounds and kept winning.

Take a look at the stretch from Feb. 12 through Mar. 6, 2021, COVID season. Eight games in 23 days. Six of these on the road. Four of those road games at MSU, and at ranked teams Wisconsin (23), Michigan (2) and OSU (7). The final three of those four were after Sissoko assaulted Ayo in EL and broke his nose.

Here are the seven intervals between each of those eight games: 4-4-3-2-2-3-4. FROM MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

Brutal. And yet we were 7-1 over those eight games, including the epic destruction of asterisk-"champion" Michigan.

It was toughness, character, competitiveness, and desire to win. That's what the current team has lacked until recently. Doesn't surprise me at all. Preseason I assumed we'd be all over the place and jell in late January. That appears to be right on schedule. Unfortunately, we don't have Ayo, Trent and Damonte willing us to victory night after night no matter how battered they are or who/where they're playing. We need some of that to get through February.

BU's brand is toughness. Our guys are looking progressively tougher the past 3-1/2 weeks since vanquishing Bucky at home. They just need to keep at it.

:illinois: 🏀
 
#81      
I’ve always seen the stat that Final Four teams actually have minutes pretty “tight” with the starters and then about 3-4 bench guys who play … so putting the “deep is good” thing to the test. Maybe we’re trying to really settle into a routine?
What you want is a deep team during the season so your starters/main rotation guys don’t have to play tons of minutes and burn themselves out. Then, in the postseason, you shorten the rotation and let your well-rested core rotation guys play heavier minutes. It’s the same theory in the NBA.
 
#82      
I think more than a little of the inconsistency can be attributed to having a roster full of guys who have never had to be "the guy" in their college careers.

It's one thing to be counted on by your teammates to provide a spark off the bench or to score 8-10 points in a supporting role. It's a different thing to be counted on to be the leading scorer every night or to be the one who makes the offense/defense go.

I think we're starting to come into our own nicely. But there will probably be more bumps in the road along the way. This will not be one of them.
 
#83      
View attachment 23232I've been pondering this game for a while now.........( not really , but it sounded good )..........nebby is a game we should win by double digits if we play anything close to our average game , especially at home.........

We need to keep on keepin on , as we overcome the terrible 0-3 start to the B$G........Many changes have been made this year on offense and defense that has refined our play to use our strength's to our best advantage........MM has been profusive in his praise of BU and staff for making said changes and our record shows the changes have been what we needed to get back in the thick of the B$G race........

The one thing I still have a problem with is the amount that the losses have been by , usually in double figures......is it because of the great play by our opponents or a lack of cohesion by the Illini players........2 games that I had counted before the season as wins were the loss to psu , at home , and the road loss to the mildcats.......Therefore , I am not overlooking any B$G game remaining in the season.................Pondering this subject has led me down that pondering wandering path and let's just get it out in public before i make my prediction of tonight's game ....therefore , the pondering rainbow as we know it .................................

View attachment 23236

WOW................now my mind is focused on the task at hand and I believe............................

Illini 82
nebby 69

View attachment 23237

pru , as usual I concur with your well thought out prediction and am looking forward to your dancing gifts post game .....I really really am .......................................

View attachment 23238

The Illini are in good hands.................................I believe..............................

View attachment 23239
Ponder on my friend.......I will be there cheering....and extra loud on each RJM hoop(s)
 
#85      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
Brother Pru, I'm on your wavelngth. I, too, have pondered this. The NW, Miznoz and PSU losses I chalk up to poor cohesion. We're long past that, for whatever reason... Skyy stepping away from the team, MM and BU achieving an understanding, and, most importantly, IMO, the team learning to play together and defend relentlessly.

BU explained away the IU blowout with the "tired legs" and "MM sick" excuse. While the latter was certainly relevant, I'm not buying the former. We all recall some absolutely brutal stretches, in 2021 for example, when the boys had multiple 2- or 3-day turnarounds and kept winning.

Take a look at the stretch from Feb. 12 through Mar. 6, 2021, COVID season. Eight games in 23 days. Six of these on the road. Four of those road games at MSU, and at ranked teams Wisconsin (23), Michigan (2) and OSU (7). The final three of those four were after Sissoko assaulted Ayo in EL and broke his nose.

Here are the seven intervals between each of those eight games: 4-4-3-2-2-3-4. FROM MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

Brutal. And yet we were 7-1 over those eight games, including the epic destruction of asterisk-"champion" Michigan.

It was toughness, character, competitiveness, and desire to win. That's what the current team has lacked until recently. Doesn't surprise me at all. Preseason I assumed we'd be all over the place and jell in late January. That appears to be right on schedule. Unfortunately, we don't have Ayo, Trent and Damonte willing us to victory night after night no matter how battered they are or who/where they're playing. We need some of that to get through February.

BU's brand is toughness. Our guys are looking progressively tougher the past 3-1/2 weeks since vanquishing Bucky at home. They just need to keep at it.

:illinois: 🏀
rooks12.gif


altgeld , being on pru's wavelength is exciting but could be detrimental to your longevity of being of a sound mind , according to the status quo in societies norm today..........I found pru's wavelength a while back and will never go back to the foggy mindscape I had before........JMHO ......it really really is ............see , I can't stop talking about it .......I really really can't.......

psyc60.jpg
 
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#88      

Big Jack

Decatur
View attachment 23232I've been pondering this game for a while now.........( not really , but it sounded good )..........nebby is a game we should win by double digits if we play anything close to our average game , especially at home.........

We need to keep on keepin on , as we overcome the terrible 0-3 start to the B$G........Many changes have been made this year on offense and defense that has refined our play to use our strength's to our best advantage........MM has been profusive in his praise of BU and staff for making said changes and our record shows the changes have been what we needed to get back in the thick of the B$G race........

The one thing I still have a problem with is the amount that the losses have been by , usually in double figures......is it because of the great play by our opponents or a lack of cohesion by the Illini players........2 games that I had counted before the season as wins were the loss to psu , at home , and the road loss to the mildcats.......Therefore , I am not overlooking any B$G game remaining in the season.................Pondering this subject has led me down that pondering wandering path and let's just get it out in public before i make my prediction of tonight's game ....therefore , the pondering rainbow as we know it .................................

View attachment 23236

WOW................now my mind is focused on the task at hand and I believe............................

Illini 82
nebby 69

View attachment 23237

pru , as usual I concur with your well thought out prediction and am looking forward to your dancing gifts post game .....I really really am .......................................

View attachment 23238

The Illini are in good hands.................................I believe..............................

View attachment 23239
How Are You Sharknado 4 GIF by SYFY
 
#90      
When you roll a die or flip a coin over a long enough period of time the actual outcomes should approach the calculated outcomes. But in basketball there is not a specific natural average for a team's winning percentage or three point percentage.

I think there is a specific natural average for a player’s three point percentage.

Just for a rough example... Player X is going to take 10,000 shots from Three in his lifetime (including practice). He’s going to hit on 3,000 of them for a 30% success rate. That’s his personal natural average for his career. A total and complete sample size. Each season will have its deviations from that marker.

Add the other players on the team and their personal percentages from Three. That’s your Team percentage average from Three Land. Again, a complete sample size. (We just don’t know that final sample size during their careers – but it’s there and will arrive one day.)

In other words... it APPEARS along the way that a player doesn’t have a ‘natural average’ when in fact he really does.

A specific natural average for a team's winning percentage is a bit more etheric.
There seems too many variables to calculate a team’s percentage because you don’t know who is playing for your side or the other from year to year. And of course, all the variables on the floor that cause game fluctuations. But I suspect that, again... given the full sample size all the seasons and all the players that you actually had you could arrive at a natural average for winning as well for all Teams. Under the same formula done with Threes.

Or we could all just make this simple. How about the Illini just every Three they take and win every game they play? That would simply things.
 
#91      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
View attachment 23241

altgeld , being on pru's wavelength is exciting but could be detrimental to your longevity of being of a sound mind , according to the status quo in societies norm today..........I found pru's wavelength a while back and will never go back to the foggy mindscape I had before........JMHO ......it really really is ............see , I can't stop talking about it .......I really really can't.......

View attachment 23242


1675188847511.png
1675188883471.png
 
#92      
BU explained away the IU blowout with the "tired legs" and "MM sick" excuse. While the latter was certainly relevant, I'm not buying the former. We all recall some absolutely brutal stretches, in 2021 for example, when the boys had multiple 2- or 3-day turnarounds and kept winning.

Take a look at the stretch from Feb. 12 through Mar. 6, 2021, COVID season. Eight games in 23 days. Six of these on the road. Four of those road games at MSU, and at ranked teams Wisconsin (23), Michigan (2) and OSU (7). The final three of those four were after Sissoko assaulted Ayo in EL and broke his nose.

Here are the seven intervals between each of those eight games: 4-4-3-2-2-3-4. FROM MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY MARCH.

Brutal. And yet we were 7-1 over those eight games, including the epic destruction of asterisk-"champion" Michigan.
Weren't most of our opponents during the COVID year playing on similar intervals? My foggy memory is that some of them had it worse than we did. The tired legs excuse does not apply where both teams have tired legs.
 
#93      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Weren't most of our opponents during the COVID year playing on similar intervals? My foggy memory is that some of them had it worse than we did. The tired legs excuse does not apply where both teams have tired legs.
That's a good point. For both of our Nebraska games they clearly had it worse than we did. Other teams not so much. And (#23) Wisconsin and (#7) OSU had six days off before hosting us and losing (each by 5). Our margin of victory in three of those seven wins (MN, NE, MI, each on the road) was quite large: 5, 7, 31, 16, 5, 23, 5.
 
#94      
Ex-engineer/longtime investment finance guy here. I haven't taken or applied stats at work in probably 25 years but dimly recall that true mean is the population mean, which can't be apprehended b/c the population can't be apprehended. We're always dealing with a sampled subset of the population.

Happy to be corrected by someone who has more than a dozen synapses to rub together after a 14-hour day.

You forgot writer……one of the best written posts ever on Loyalty.

altgeld88
Arlington, Virginia

It’s so nice to see our basketball coach so comfortable in his role and confident in his team, but damn sure not content.
In 1994, after working abroad for three years, I spent a summer on trains around Europe before moving to Chicago. By the time I got to the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland in mid-July it was hot as Hades, and the humidity was stifling. No a/c anywhere, the hangover of the Soviet collapse omnipresent, grown men having fistfights in the street in broad daylight over trivialities, palpable desperation and resignation everywhere I went (except Prague, which was a complete party), roach-infested dirty hostels. Just a rough, unpleasant environment in so many places and ways.

I finally got out of there and headed north to Sweden to end my trip. Took a daytime train from Krakow through balls-hot Silesia in southern Poland. I still remember rolling through the steel mill town of Katowice, where the complexion of everyone I saw was literally gray from decades of unmitigated Soviet steel mill pollution and many probably died before they turned 60. (Years later I had a colleague who worked in the Peace Corps in Katowice and confirmed just how horrible a place it was.) Ended up in Wroclaw, where I stood nearly alone on a platform awaiting my night train. On the neighboring platform, which was packed, a train pulled up and a wave of humanity tried to board it, climbing in through windows, people pushing, shoving and fighting for seats. It was anarchy, a bad dream.

I fell asleep not long after the overnight train departed for Dresden and the Baltic coast. I'd been relentlessly sweating, staying in hovels, and surrounded by social misery for the better part of two weeks. At one point the Polish transit police shook me down for $20 in cash and threatened to jail me. In the Czech Republic a very, very strong drunk tried to assault the two mothers and their three young daughters I happened to be sharing a train carriage with and I (not anywhere near the strapping lad I am today at 56) had to fend him off for an hour.

I wondered why the he!! I'd ever left Switzerland and Austria and veered into Eastern Europe to begin with.

In the morning I woke up as the train rolled onto a ferry headed for Trelleborg on the Swedish coast. It was much cooler but overcast. By the time I'd had sufficient coffee and a good meal, I was on a train headed north for Gothenberg and the clouds had dissipated. When I got there, I dumped my bags in the local hostel. It was clean, spacious, and every conceivable surface was covered with smooth blond wood. The clerk at check-in was friendly and offered advice about the city. They had a sauna out back.

I showered. I ate Nutella, and had some sort of scone with lingonberry jam. The coffee, freshly-brewed, was dark and strong. I walked outside and there was not a cloud in the sky. The humidity was low. It was perhaps 75 degrees. I took a tram to the end of the line at a seaside suburb. I sat on the rocks by the harbor. Everyone looked healthy, radiant and happy. All the women were beautiful. I felt as if I had entered nirvana.

When I watch a presser that BU or BB give these days, I'm mindful of how long Illini fans have inhabited Eastern Europe c. 1994. And that we are now in Sweden, basking in the late July sun. Cleanliness, good food and drink, beautiful women (and men) everywhere, a cold beer in hand. And dark, relentless winter nowhere on the horizon.
 
#96      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
You're very kind. I have fun here. I do wonder, however, what will happen what ChatGPT-style AI bots arrive at Loyalty and begin posting. Perhaps they're already here among us?! :unsure: :eek::ROFLMAO:

We'll suss 'em out. The posts deploring Bruce Weber's recruiting will inevitably include one about the hugely talented and underperforming Jereme Richmond, but will spell his name like it's pronounced "Jereem."
 
#97      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Thanks. I can google. ;) Was looking for something more than this. The above is not exactly a mathematical definition.
An example that I can think of would be number of Illini fans (or % of people who are Illini fans) in the US Population:

If you had a master database of the entire US population's demographic information down to person, you would be able to identify the true mean, also known as the population mean.

Almost every number that we are presented on a daily basis are sample means (generally through surveys meant to reflect the population, since it is too expensive/time consuming to pull in the data from the entire population). You will generally see this as a number then +/- some level of error. This sample mean is an estimate of the true mean.

When possible, it is best to get population means (true means), but it is almost always impractical. I think we are most used to sample means when looking at political polling data.
 
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#98      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
An example that I can think of would be number of Illini fans (or % of people who are Illini fans) in the US Population:

If you had a master database of the entire US population's demographic information down to person, you would be able to identify the true mean, also known as the population mean.

Almost every number that we are presented on a daily basis are sample means (generally through surveys meant to reflect the population, since it is too expensive/time consuming to pull in the data from the entire population). You will generally see this as a number then +/- some level of error. This sample mean is an estimate of the true mean.

When possible, it is best to get population means (true means), but it is almost always impractical. I think we are most used to sample means when looking at political polling data.
Looks like mathematical formulas were requested.

The mathematical definition of true mean (population mean):

μ = ( Σ Xi ) / N

Sample Mean:

x_bar = ( Σ xi ) / n
 
#100      
Well, we'll be in 3rd place entering the NEB game. A pretty good turnaround following our 0-3 start. And NW is not going to sustain their stranglehold on 2nd place.

We've been red hot since I quit making projections on here. No sense in changing that.

ILL !!!!
INI !!!
 
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