Bracketology

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#2      
New thread, thought I'd look at the conference visavis the bracket matrix: [Seed & Team]

1 Purdue
5 Rutgers
5 Indiana
6 Illinois
8 MSU
9 Iowa
9 NW
10 Maryland

Bubble [Positions off & Team]
(1st) Wiscy
(4th) Penn State
(6th) OSU
 
#4      
Always aim for top 4 seed or higher!

We Can Do It Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
#6      

Chad Fleck

Eureka, IL
We will see how the rest of the season plays out, but I think our goal should be to aim for a 4 seed or better. If we keep in the trajectory we are on, that should be reasonable since that would put us in 2nd or 3rd in the B1G. Still lots of basketball left, though.
A 3 seed would be great as well. I just don't like the 4 v 5 match-up, then the 1. Usually a big jump from 1 to 2 to get out of the elite 8 from my observation.
 
#7      

OnlyOrange

Belleville, IL
A 3 seed would be great as well. I just don't like the 4 v 5 match-up, then the 1. Usually a big jump from 1 to 2 to get out of the elite 8 from my observation.
I hope you're right, but we have a brutal upcoming schedule. We've largely beaten up on the bottom of the conference as of late. Going to be tough to move up IMO.
 
#8      
A 3 seed would be great as well. I just don't like the 4 v 5 match-up, then the 1. Usually a big jump from 1 to 2 to get out of the elite 8 from my observation.
No doubt, look at the 2 seeds on bracket matrix right now. Kansas, Arizona, Texas and UCLA. Illinois has beaten two of those teams on neutral floors already. On average, Illinois would be about a 4.61 point underdog against the projected 2 seeds on a neutral floor per KenPom whereas they'd be a 9.115 point underdog on average against the projected 1 seeds. Stay away from those 1 seeds as long as you can! Maybe someone does you a favor and knocks them out before you match with them which just opens up the whole region.
 
#9      
Quick review of where we stand today with updated NET rankings:

Record: 16-6
NET Ranking: #25
SOS Ranking: #30
vs. Quad 1: 3-5
vs. Quad 2: 3-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0

A few notes on games we've already played:
- Of our 3 Q1 wins, two are VERY safe: vs. #5 UCLA (N) and vs. #9 Texas (N). However, vs. #29 OSU (H) is hanging by a thread ... we need them to stabilize a bit and stay in the top 30! On that note...
- Wisconsin just slipped to #77, so we lost a Q1 win today ... we need them at #75 or lower for that to be a Q1 win in Madison. It would also change our home win against them from Q3 to Q2, so root for the Badgers!

Upcoming Schedule:
at #32 Iowa (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #226 Minnesota (Q4 no matter what)
vs. #20 Rutgers (Q1 if they remain top 30)
at #56 Penn State (Q1 VERY likely, Q2 if they go below #75)
at #23 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #49 Northwestern (Q2 VERY likely)
at #29 Ohio State (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #83 Michigan (Q3 no matter what)
at #3 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)

So, we have...
6 games vs. Q1
1 game vs. Q2
1 game vs. Q3
1 game vs. Q4

So this is what I see as our recipe if we want to sneak into a 4-seed or higher, which is NOT as ambitious as it sounds, IMO:

1) Realistically, let's assume two Q1 losses at Indiana and at Purdue ... obviously, we could win either, but let's keep it simple.
2) Absolutely do NOT trip up at home vs. Minnesota and Michigan but also vs. Northwestern. A loss to Minnesota is disastrous, a loss to Michigan likely sets our ceiling lower and a loss to Northwestern is just not ideal at all. Win these three or die trying.
3) WIN AT OHIO STATE. I think we are significantly better than them, and there's no way they'll drop far enough for this not to be a Q1 win. We simply have to have this one!
4) Go 2-1 in these games, which will likely all be Q1 ... at Iowa, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State. All three will be tough, but it's not out of the question to go 2-1, and there is reason for optimism in each individual game ... we have owned Iowa lately and can hopefully force them to play our game rather than a 3-point contest. Rutgers is great, but it's at home and they've never won in Champaign. We SHOULD be up for some serious revenge at Penn State. Again, it's a lofty goal, but it's not that crazy.

If we did all that, we'd be looking at this before the BTT:

Record: 22-9
B1G Record: 13-7 (to determine our BTT seed, the Committee doesn't care)
vs. Quad 1: 6-8
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

To put that in perspective, our team last year - which lost its first BTT game - was 22-9 on Selection Sunday. Win one in the Big Ten Tournament, and I really think we could be looking at a 4-seed with that record.
 
#10      
Quick review of where we stand today with updated NET rankings:

Record: 16-6
NET Ranking: #25
SOS Ranking: #30
vs. Quad 1: 3-5
vs. Quad 2: 3-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0

A few notes on games we've already played:
- Of our 3 Q1 wins, two are VERY safe: vs. #5 UCLA (N) and vs. #9 Texas (N). However, vs. #29 OSU (H) is hanging by a thread ... we need them to stabilize a bit and stay in the top 30! On that note...
- Wisconsin just slipped to #77, so we lost a Q1 win today ... we need them at #75 or lower for that to be a Q1 win in Madison. It would also change our home win against them from Q3 to Q2, so root for the Badgers!

Upcoming Schedule:
at #32 Iowa (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #226 Minnesota (Q4 no matter what)
vs. #20 Rutgers (Q1 if they remain top 30)
at #56 Penn State (Q1 VERY likely, Q2 if they go below #75)
at #23 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #49 Northwestern (Q2 VERY likely)
at #29 Ohio State (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #83 Michigan (Q3 no matter what)
at #3 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)

So, we have...
6 games vs. Q1
1 game vs. Q2
1 game vs. Q3
1 game vs. Q4

So this is what I see as our recipe if we want to sneak into a 4-seed or higher, which is NOT as ambitious as it sounds, IMO:

1) Realistically, let's assume two Q1 losses at Indiana and at Purdue ... obviously, we could win either, but let's keep it simple.
2) Absolutely do NOT trip up at home vs. Minnesota and Michigan but also vs. Northwestern. A loss to Minnesota is disastrous, a loss to Michigan likely sets our ceiling lower and a loss to Northwestern is just not ideal at all. Win these three or die trying.
3) WIN AT OHIO STATE. I think we are significantly better than them, and there's no way they'll drop far enough for this not to be a Q1 win. We simply have to have this one!
4) Go 2-1 in these games, which will likely all be Q1 ... at Iowa, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State. All three will be tough, but it's not out of the question to go 2-1, and there is reason for optimism in each individual game ... we have owned Iowa lately and can hopefully force them to play our game rather than a 3-point contest. Rutgers is great, but it's at home and they've never won in Champaign. We SHOULD be up for some serious revenge at Penn State. Again, it's a lofty goal, but it's not that crazy.

If we did all that, we'd be looking at this before the BTT:

Record: 22-9
B1G Record: 13-7 (to determine our BTT seed, the Committee doesn't care)
vs. Quad 1: 6-8
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

To put that in perspective, our team last year - which lost its first BTT game - was 22-9 on Selection Sunday. Win one in the Big Ten Tournament, and I really think we could be looking at a 4-seed with that record.

Always appreciate the analysis. I know last year was a different year but here were the Q1, Q2, and combined records for the 4 seeds last year:

UCLA: 6-5, 8-2 for 14-7 with 1 Q3 loss
Arkansas: 8-7, 8-1 for 16-8 with 1 Q3 loss
Illinois: 7-7, 6-3 for 13-10 with 0 Q3 or Q4 losses
Providence: 5-4, 11-2 for 16-6 with 0 Q3 or Q4 losses

I'm not sure a 11-10 Q1 + Q2 record (assuming we win 1 BTT game and lose the next) is good enough for a 4 seed. Of course resumes will be different this year.

Our resume looks much more like the 2022 6 seeds.

Texas: 7-11, 5-1 for 12-12 with no Q3 or Q4 losses
Alabama: 9-9, 4-3 for 13-12 with 2 Q3 losses
LSU: 5-10, 4-1 for 9-11 with 1 Q3 loss
Colorado State was the 4th 6-seed but being a non-Power 5 it's a little tougher to compare.

Like you said, Illini fans needs to become Wisconsin fans and let's hope we pull off an extra "upset" over the next 6 weeks.
 
#12      
Quick review of where we stand today with updated NET rankings:

Record: 16-6
NET Ranking: #25
SOS Ranking: #30
vs. Quad 1: 3-5
vs. Quad 2: 3-1
vs. Quad 3: 4-0
vs. Quad 4: 6-0

A few notes on games we've already played:
- Of our 3 Q1 wins, two are VERY safe: vs. #5 UCLA (N) and vs. #9 Texas (N). However, vs. #29 OSU (H) is hanging by a thread ... we need them to stabilize a bit and stay in the top 30! On that note...
- Wisconsin just slipped to #77, so we lost a Q1 win today ... we need them at #75 or lower for that to be a Q1 win in Madison. It would also change our home win against them from Q3 to Q2, so root for the Badgers!

Upcoming Schedule:
at #32 Iowa (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #226 Minnesota (Q4 no matter what)
vs. #20 Rutgers (Q1 if they remain top 30)
at #56 Penn State (Q1 VERY likely, Q2 if they go below #75)
at #23 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #49 Northwestern (Q2 VERY likely)
at #29 Ohio State (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #83 Michigan (Q3 no matter what)
at #3 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)

So, we have...
6 games vs. Q1
1 game vs. Q2
1 game vs. Q3
1 game vs. Q4

So this is what I see as our recipe if we want to sneak into a 4-seed or higher, which is NOT as ambitious as it sounds, IMO:

1) Realistically, let's assume two Q1 losses at Indiana and at Purdue ... obviously, we could win either, but let's keep it simple.
2) Absolutely do NOT trip up at home vs. Minnesota and Michigan but also vs. Northwestern. A loss to Minnesota is disastrous, a loss to Michigan likely sets our ceiling lower and a loss to Northwestern is just not ideal at all. Win these three or die trying.
3) WIN AT OHIO STATE. I think we are significantly better than them, and there's no way they'll drop far enough for this not to be a Q1 win. We simply have to have this one!
4) Go 2-1 in these games, which will likely all be Q1 ... at Iowa, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State. All three will be tough, but it's not out of the question to go 2-1, and there is reason for optimism in each individual game ... we have owned Iowa lately and can hopefully force them to play our game rather than a 3-point contest. Rutgers is great, but it's at home and they've never won in Champaign. We SHOULD be up for some serious revenge at Penn State. Again, it's a lofty goal, but it's not that crazy.

If we did all that, we'd be looking at this before the BTT:

Record: 22-9
B1G Record: 13-7 (to determine our BTT seed, the Committee doesn't care)
vs. Quad 1: 6-8
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 5-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

To put that in perspective, our team last year - which lost its first BTT game - was 22-9 on Selection Sunday. Win one in the Big Ten Tournament, and I really think we could be looking at a 4-seed with that record.
Like the way you think but seems more likely that we end up 21-10 (my preseason prediction) or 20-11. Hope we are both wrong and we continue to figure things out and finish 25-6 and a 2 or 3 seed. If RJ finds himself, Goode comes back like he never left, and we can develop an effective strategy for dealing with a big like Edey, TJD and Dickless, a nice finish is a real possibility. We really don't have much of a ceiling with this team.
 
#13      

Bigtex

DFW
3 weeks ago my 24-7 preseason prediction looked like a pipe dream Not sure we will reach 24-7 but keep believing we will.
 
#15      
Like the way you think but seems more likely that we end up 21-10 (my preseason prediction) or 20-11. Hope we are both wrong and we continue to figure things out and finish 25-6 and a 2 or 3 seed. If RJ finds himself, Goode comes back like he never left, and we can develop an effective strategy for dealing with a big like Edey, TJD and Dickless, a nice finish is a real possibility. We really don't have much of a ceiling with this team.
Your last sentence is spot-on ... frustrating and exciting. I've seen enough lapses back into the negatives with this group to ever set expectations too high, but MAN we can beat anyone. I mean, we have literally already proven that. If this group could continue to get in a groove and have less variability from game to game, they really could go far.
 
#17      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
3 weeks ago my 24-7 preseason prediction looked like a pipe dream Not sure we will reach 24-7 but keep believing we will.
We can. 50-50 IMO.
50% chance! Wow, you need to run to Vegas or whatever Sports Book in area and place a bet. You can make a lot of money on that bet then.

I simply do not think we will win all 8 games before Purdue, and I think beating Purdue is about 10% at best. There is probably only a 25% chance at best that we can win two out of three of @ Iowa @ Indiana @ Purdue. After that you would need to run the table. I think we are more 50-50 in going 21-10, maybe 22-9 if I am feeling good.

But I love the optimism :)
 
#18      
50% chance! Wow, you need to run to Vegas or whatever Sports Book in area and place a bet. You can make a lot of money on that bet then.

I simply do not think we will win all 8 games before Purdue, and I think beating Purdue is about 10% at best. There is probably only a 25% chance at best that we can win two out of three of @ Iowa @ Indiana @ Purdue. After that you would need to run the table. I think we are more 50-50 in going 21-10, maybe 22-9 if I am feeling good.

But I love the optimism :)

KP gives us a 21% chance of beating Purdue ;)

The cumulative probability of winning all 8 other games: 0.8% (less than 1%) :LOL:

I'm with Illini2010-11 though. Love the optimism!
 
#19      
New thread, thought I'd look at the conference visavis the bracket matrix: [Seed & Team]

1 Purdue
5 Rutgers
5 Indiana
6 Illinois
8 MSU
9 Iowa
9 NW
10 Maryland

Bubble [Positions off & Team]
(1st) Wiscy
(4th) Penn State
(6th) OSU
Can't figure out how Illinois is below Indiana here with a better Q1 record, Q2 record, road record, and 2 top 10 wins on neutral courts. They don't currently own a ranked win.
 
#20      
Since past performance is an indicator of future performance (/s), here is our past performance as a function of top 4 seeds in the big dance.

#1 Final 4, Elite 8, NC game, 2nd round
#2 E8
#3 Sweet 16, 1st rd, 2nd rd
#4 S16, 2nd, 2nd, S16, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
5,6,7,8,9 and 11 seeds are all bad with one exception as a 5 (1 out of 4) we went to the Sweet 16.

Clearly we want a 1 or 2 seed. 3 and 4 seeds are disappointing. :unsure:
 
#21      

Illini2010-11

Sugar Grove
Since past performance is an indicator of future performance (/s), here is our past performance as a function of top 4 seeds in the big dance.

#1 Final 4, Elite 8, NC game, 2nd round
#2 E8
#3 Sweet 16, 1st rd, 2nd rd
#4 S16, 2nd, 2nd, S16, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
5,6,7,8,9 and 11 seeds are all bad with one exception as a 5 (1 out of 4) we went to the Sweet 16.

Clearly we want a 1 or 2 seed. 3 and 4 seeds are disappointing. :unsure:
Then it clearly looks like we want the 10 seed, since there is no past performance to keep us from winning it all! ;)
 
#22      
50% chance! Wow, you need to run to Vegas or whatever Sports Book in area and place a bet. You can make a lot of money on that bet then.

I simply do not think we will win all 8 games before Purdue, and I think beating Purdue is about 10% at best. There is probably only a 25% chance at best that we can win two out of three of @ Iowa @ Indiana @ Purdue. After that you would need to run the table. I think we are more 50-50 in going 21-10, maybe 22-9 if I am feeling good.

But I love the optimism :)

My UoI Stat Prof told me, in the 70s, that there is a huge difference between "can" and "will". :)
 
#23      
Since past performance is an indicator of future performance (/s), here is our past performance as a function of top 4 seeds in the big dance.

#1 Final 4, Elite 8, NC game, 2nd round
#2 E8
#3 Sweet 16, 1st rd, 2nd rd
#4 S16, 2nd, 2nd, S16, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
5,6,7,8,9 and 11 seeds are all bad with one exception as a 5 (1 out of 4) we went to the Sweet 16.

Clearly we want a 1 or 2 seed. 3 and 4 seeds are disappointing. :unsure:

I'm pushing my chips in on fully supporting a 6 seed. I like the 11/3/2 path and obviously our talent ceiling is much higher than a 6.

It would be fun to finally win a game or two as the lower seed. (and I'm not talking a 9 over an 8)
 
#24      
I'm pushing my chips in on fully supporting a 6 seed. I like the 11/3/2 path and obviously our talent ceiling is much higher than a 6.

It would be fun to finally win a game or two as the lower seed. (and I'm not talking a 9 over an 8)
I would agree. 11 seeds tend to be decent low major, or not very good high major teams. We've been a 6 twice and beat the 11 seed both times. Lost to a 3 seed and a 14 seed in the second round. fwiw. :)

This season my bet is we get higher than a six. Most likely a 4. Which is the seed we've gotten the most for whatever reason.
 
#25      
New thread, thought I'd look at the conference visavis the bracket matrix: [Seed & Team]

1 Purdue
5 Rutgers
5 Indiana
6 Illinois
8 MSU
9 Iowa
9 NW
10 Maryland

Bubble [Positions off & Team]
(1st) Wiscy
(4th) Penn State
(6th) OSU
The greatest part of this list is Michigan is not on it
 
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