If not getting any Q1 wins might mean a 6/7 seed, then I am not too concerned. However, with some Q1 wins, it would show that the Illini can be a dangerous team come tournament time.
Bracketology
- Status
If you take away our wins over UCLA and Texas, we're definitely worrying about making the tournament.
mattcoldagelli
- The Transfer Portal
But...you can't take away those wins, so we aren't.
That's not how this works lol. There have been multiple games we could/should have won, such as Iowa or Maryland
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
To be fair, if most teams had their best wins taken away, they would be worried about making the tournament.
Good news is that there are plenty of opportunities to improve upon our Q1 resume and get up to/remain at the 4/5 seed line.
Huh? The original point was that our resume was being propped up by those wins, which it is.
Bigtex
- DFW
Funny the 2 closest games of the year
Don't worry about the Quad stuff too much, it's shorthand but it's not the Tournament Committee's big focus. Every Big Ten game that is played not involving our team will be more or less a net neutral (technically it's better if team we play twice beat teams we play once if you really want to fine tune for margins). Our NET is a comfortable 26th. Those "Quad 2" wins are all "Quad 2-A", while 5 of the 8 "Quad 1" games we've played are in "Quad 1-A" if you want to get really nitty gritty on that sort of thing. Just don't mess up that home makeup game against Minnesota. Win at least some of your other games and keep pace in a competitive Big Ten.
Whether Wisconsin is a 1/2 or a 2/3 considering they're right near the cutoff line isn't meaningfully impactful. The cutoffs are arbitrary, and while people love their arbitrary cutoffs, the committee isn't going to do anything drastic with where a team like ours falls based on whether Wisconsin is NET 73 or NET 77.
I also don't see the point of "take away the two best wins on the season...." discussion, yeah most teams in the 5-6-7 range on bracketmatrix would be in the same boat and Illinois stands out for having 2 very marquee wins on neutral floors against teams that are bracketmatrix 2 seeds right now.
Whether Wisconsin is a 1/2 or a 2/3 considering they're right near the cutoff line isn't meaningfully impactful. The cutoffs are arbitrary, and while people love their arbitrary cutoffs, the committee isn't going to do anything drastic with where a team like ours falls based on whether Wisconsin is NET 73 or NET 77.
I also don't see the point of "take away the two best wins on the season...." discussion, yeah most teams in the 5-6-7 range on bracketmatrix would be in the same boat and Illinois stands out for having 2 very marquee wins on neutral floors against teams that are bracketmatrix 2 seeds right now.
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I think sometimes people forget this is all relative, and Illini resume is good vs many other teams this year. For example, there are looking to be 10-12 teams combined from the ACC, BigEast, and PAC10 this year who are all having terribly down years as conferences.
Another thing I think people miss is how quickly you can move up or down. As you point out, the entire bracket is relative, and the further down the bracket you are, the easier it is to move up, since a single win over a top team can all of a sudden make your resume look better than a half dozen teams around you.
Illinois is currently looking at 6/7 seeding, but I think it could easily move up a couple seeds. Would love to see them get up to the 4 line --will need to play a lot more consistently to get there.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Exactly ... just watch the top 25 polls from week to week. A casual Illini fan might think we wouldn't be ranked on Monday if we beat #24 Rutgers, but it's not JUST about what we do ... it's about the absolute cluster**** that is college basketball this year. Just look at how much movement is possible this week alone:
MONDAY
Duke (RV #26) loses by 22 to #19 Miami (FL)
TUESDAY
#24 Rutgers loses to #18 Indiana
#22 NC State loses to #8 Virginia
WEDNESDAY
#23 Creighton plays at Seton Hall
#25 San Diego State plays at Utah State
SATURDAY
#24 Rutgers plays at Illinois (RV #31)
#22 NC State plays at Boston College
#21 UConn plays at #23 Creighton
#18 Indiana plays at Michigan
This is the top 25 and just for illustrative purposes, but the same thing holds true for the NCAAs, in that it will likely continue to be a CRAZY year and someone has to fill up those top 6 seeds ... and we have a VERY realistic path in front of us to achieve that. We can't sleep walk to it by any means, but if we bring intensity and effort every night, the wins will follow.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I just played around with that awesome BTT seed calculator/simulator for the rest of the season, with the following "upsets" or results that went against the simulator's assumed outcomes:
Michigan beats Indiana at home
Michigan State wins at Ohio State
Wisconsin beats Michigan at home
*** Maryland upsets Purdue at home ***
Iowa wins at Wisconsin
Penn State beats Maryland at home
It also assumes that our only losses down the stretch will be at Indiana and at Purdue, FWIW. That gets us these seeds (tie breakers are head-to-head or best round-robin record among the tied teams against each other):
1. Purdue (17-3)
2. Rutgers (14-6)
3. Iowa (13-7)
4. Maryland (13-7)
5. Illinois (13-7)
6. Indiana (12-8)
7. Michigan State (12-8)
8. Michigan (11-9)
9. Northwestern (8-12)
10. Penn State (8-12)
11. Wisconsin (8-12)
12. Nebraska (5-15)
13. Ohio State (5-15)
14. Minnesota (1-19)
And here would be the Illini BTT schedule at the UC in Chicago, where we'd have a nice little crowd advantage, getting more advantageous the further we advance!
Thursday 3/9: vs. winner of (12) Nebraska and (13) Ohio State
Friday 3/10: vs. (4) Maryland
Saturday 3/11: vs. winner of (1) Purdue and (8) Michigan/(9) Northwestern
Sunday 3/12: TBD ... hopefully vs. (3) Iowa!!
These are obviously just my random predictions really far out, but based on tie breakers ... if we want that double bye, I think we have to steal some revenge in Bloomington.
Michigan beats Indiana at home
Michigan State wins at Ohio State
Wisconsin beats Michigan at home
*** Maryland upsets Purdue at home ***
Iowa wins at Wisconsin
Penn State beats Maryland at home
It also assumes that our only losses down the stretch will be at Indiana and at Purdue, FWIW. That gets us these seeds (tie breakers are head-to-head or best round-robin record among the tied teams against each other):
1. Purdue (17-3)
2. Rutgers (14-6)
3. Iowa (13-7)
4. Maryland (13-7)
5. Illinois (13-7)
6. Indiana (12-8)
7. Michigan State (12-8)
8. Michigan (11-9)
9. Northwestern (8-12)
10. Penn State (8-12)
11. Wisconsin (8-12)
12. Nebraska (5-15)
13. Ohio State (5-15)
14. Minnesota (1-19)
And here would be the Illini BTT schedule at the UC in Chicago, where we'd have a nice little crowd advantage, getting more advantageous the further we advance!
Thursday 3/9: vs. winner of (12) Nebraska and (13) Ohio State
Friday 3/10: vs. (4) Maryland
Saturday 3/11: vs. winner of (1) Purdue and (8) Michigan/(9) Northwestern
Sunday 3/12: TBD ... hopefully vs. (3) Iowa!!
These are obviously just my random predictions really far out, but based on tie breakers ... if we want that double bye, I think we have to steal some revenge in Bloomington.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Clarifying note - these are cool because it's trying to predict the end of year, not "if the season ended today". I think most other bracketology projections are the latter.
13-7 will most likely be a double bye this year. Don't think Iowa or Maryland get to 13, especially the latter. Also would not be surprised to see Rutgers drop a couple more as well
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
If we get a 6 seed and have to play 5 seed St Mary’s in the round of 32, I’m gonna lose my mind.
Would be the 3rd year in a row we take on a top 10 KenPom team in the second round.
Would be the 3rd year in a row we take on a top 10 KenPom team in the second round.
I think you mean 3 seed St. Mary's.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Unless they win WAC regular season and postseason title, can't see them any higher than a 4 seed. I do think they end up as a 5 seed.
So...I do not think we have to worry about playing them in round of 32 if we are a 6 seed
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Would be impressive for St. Mary's to win the WAC since they're in the WCC.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Sorry fast fingers on cell phone. I meant WCC.
I will say, if St. Mary's wins in Spokane and then the WCC Tourney (likely beating Gonzaga for third time), I do see a path for them getting a 3 seed. I think their loss to Colorado State might ceiling them at a 3 seed tops. In that event, we very well could face up with them in the tourney if we are a 6 seed.
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We are not a bubble team. It's just the Dec poor string and our poor 3pt shooting left a bad taste in people's mouth. I think we will be OK but we really need to take care of the ball and find ways to be more efficient in offence if we want to do well in tournament. In our current shape, I think we are lucky if we can get to the 2nd week in tourney. Truthfully, I am very disappointed about our 3pt shooting. I thought this is the year we have lots of cannons on the perimeter. Now I wish we can have Trent back.
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Ya'll are crazy..St Mary's is a good team but I'd take that second round matchup 100/100 times.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I'm pretty done with mid-major teams that are much better than their resume would suggest, thank you very much. Give me something like Xavier - a 6 seed with the team sheet of a 3 seed.
St Mary's and Loyola are not the same lol. Loyola is a couple bounces away from being irrelevant. St Mary's has been a really good program for a very long time. Even then, I'd take them in a second round matchup.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Agreed that they're different programs, but why do I care in 2023? In a single-elimination tournament, I want the easiest opponents, period.
I'm counting Houston in this category too. "Mid-major" was just a quip, I don't care what conference they're in, although it seems easier for teams from smaller conferences to be under-seeded.
A 5 seed that should have been a 1 or 2 last year, and an 8 seed that should have been a 3 or 4 in 2021. No thank you on the three-peat for under-seeded opponents*.
* Edit - I guess they wouldn't be that bad as a 3 seed. I was thinking of a 4/5 matchup...
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- Status