Bracketology

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#101      

danielb927

danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
danielb927
727ill said:
You aren't getting any easy opponents past the first round unless there is an upset (or you are a top 2 seed). I'd still take St. Mary's as an opponent over a comparable high-major school.

Also I'm probably in the minority here but I thought Loyola was properly seeded in 2021. They were just a bad matchup for us (mainly Krutwig).
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Well, sure, that's the key question - what's "comparable"?

I would argue that KP-23rd Xavier or KP-18th Iowa State are not comparable to KP-7th St. Mary's even though all three are projected 3-seeds on BracketMatrix. SMU would probably be favored by 2-3 points on a neutral floor over either of the other two. Not a huge difference, but not nothing.
 
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#102      

Goillinikobd

Goillinikobd
Southeastern US
Goillinikobd
Wow, when it comes to seeding BIG teams with a third of the season plus the BTT left, there has to be a lot of spit balling going on after you get past PU.
 
#105      

BretMyBeachHouse

B
BretMyBeachHouse
jrichisamazing said:
Purdue, Alabama, Houston, and Kansas are the 1 seeds on bracketmatrix right now. Obviously there is a lot of basketball left, but if the season ended today, which team would you want in our regional?

For me it is easily Kansas. IMO, there is a pretty clear top 3 right now. Bama, Purdue, and Houston. It would be nice to stay away from them. I could really see Hawkins slowing down Jalen Wilson, and then Kansas becomes very beatable.
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I could see a change in refereeing style hurting Purdue in the tournament.
 
#109      

Calvin

C
Calvin
illini55 said:
EVERYONE is a bad matchup for us if we play a Penn State/NW/Indiana/MIZZOU type game. We are a bad matchup for EVERYONE if we play a UCLA/Texas/Nebraska/MN type game. This team is the most erratic team I've followed in 50+ years of Illini fandom.
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When you know a team has a high ceiling and looks like some of the bad play is correctable, I think that breeds frustration. This is a pretty good team that we believe has a higher ceiling than other 6 or 7 seeds. IMO they're inconsistent, but not wildly so, especially given how many new faces have a big role this season. I think the inconsistency feeds worse because they played up against TX and UCLA, and looked really bad playing down in the 3 straight losses.
 
#110      

Bogey99

Bogey99
Bogey99
Calvin said:
When you know a team has a high ceiling and looks like some of the bad play is correctable, I think that breeds frustration. This is a pretty good team that we believe has a higher ceiling than other 6 or 7 seeds. IMO they're inconsistent, but not wildly so, especially given how many new faces have a big role this season. I think the inconsistency feeds worse because they played up against TX and UCLA, and looked really bad playing down in the 3 straight losses.
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We haven’t even lost two in a row, let alone three!
 
#113      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
I think even with todays win, we are still squarely on the 6 line for now. Creighton got a much needed win over Uconn, which is probably a better win right now. We can't jump them. Although SMC has some bad losses, and a similar quadrant record as us, this kill us in every advanced metric. Miami is a resume that I think we are much closer with than many may think. We have very similar advanced metrics, and their quad 1+2 record is 8-4 while we're 7-7, but they also have a quad 3 loss. We're still behind them. TCU also edges us due to their 5 quad 1 wins, but also have a quad 3 loss.

Now, with that being said, our advances metrics are our friends this year. We're top 25ish in NET/Kenpom/T-rank/Bartorv./Sargin etcc. We have 4 quad 1 opportunities left. We go 2-0 this coming week with 2 road wins, we're all of a sudden in the 4 seed discussion and feeling safe likely on the 5 line. With the way some teams like Marquette, Creighton, TCU, SMC, Iowa St, Uconn have shown they are capable of playing down to their compeition..we have a outside shot at a 3 seed.

If we were to win out (unlikely) we're 14-7 in quad1+2 games. That's a fantastic ratio. Which is really what is an underlooked aspect in all of this. Last year we were a 4 seed and were 12-8 in quad 1+2 games. With no win on the resume close to UCLA or Texas.

Let's go 2-0 this week and fight for a top 4 seed, with dreams of a 3.
 
#114      

DeonThomas

DeonThomas
South Carolina
DeonThomas
SkyysNotFalling said:
I think even with todays win, we are still squarely on the 6 line for now. Creighton got a much needed win over Uconn, which is probably a better win right now. We can't jump them. Although SMC has some bad losses, and a similar quadrant record as us, this kill us in every advanced metric. Miami is a resume that I think we are much closer with than many may think. We have very similar advanced metrics, and their quad 1+2 record is 8-4 while we're 7-7, but they also have a quad 3 loss. We're still behind them. TCU also edges us due to their 5 quad 1 wins, but also have a quad 3 loss.

Now, with that being said, our advances metrics are our friends this year. We're top 25ish in NET/Kenpom/T-rank/Bartorv./Sargin etcc. We have 4 quad 1 opportunities left. We go 2-0 this coming week with 2 road wins, we're all of a sudden in the 4 seed discussion and feeling safe likely on the 5 line. With the way some teams like Marquette, Creighton, TCU, SMC, Iowa St, Uconn have shown they are capable of playing down to their compeition..we have a outside shot at a 3 seed.

If we were to win out (unlikely) we're 14-7 in quad1+2 games. That's a fantastic ratio. Which is really what is an underlooked aspect in all of this. Last year we were a 4 seed and were 12-8 in quad 1+2 games. With no win on the resume close to UCLA or Texas.

Let's go 2-0 this week and fight for a top 4 seed, with dreams of a 3.
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Your seeding scenarios are spot-on. #21 KenPom this morning, so I'd (optimistically) argue we're already a 5 seed. Lunardi might have us there tomorrow.

We have five extremely winnable games remaining in the regular season, plus Purdue & Indiana on the road.......with great opportunities for some huge wins.
 
#115      

battle

battle
battle
in comparing quad 1/2 records - its just an organizational tool, without looking at details (which 1/2 teams), "comparable records" can be misleading. first, not all quad 1/2 wins/losses are equal - beating a top 5 on neutral site is not close to being same as beating a 30 at home, a 50 at neutral or a 75 on road. Second, there are always weird anomalies in net rankings which shows the algorithm is flawed (not just 5-10 spots in rankings/metrics/... but arguably 10-30 spots). Optimistic we hit our stride, take care of business the next 2 weeks at PSU, OSU, home, revenge IU plus UT and UCLA wins keep getting better and better - no one else has what could be two top 5 wins. I think committee generally gives significant weight to high-quality wins. hope we get good matchups, get to S16 and anything can happen.
 
#117      

SCMART Illini

S
SCMART Illini
Is SMC supposed to be a 3 seed at this point? They have 5 losses, which some of those are to nonconference powerhouses such as Washington, New Mexico, and Colorado St. Just my prediction, but if they were in the big ten, they would have added around 7 conference losses to their 4 non conference losses. This would leave them with 11 losses and sitting on the bubble, probably on the outside.

In my opinion, this is why the big ten ends up seeded to low and as a result, has been underperforming in the tournament. You can use the metrics all you want, but look at how quad 1 wins turn to quad 2, 2 to 3 in the big ten. They all have to play good teams every night.
 
#118      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
SCMART Illini said:
Is SMC supposed to be a 3 seed at this point? They have 5 losses, which some of those are to nonconference powerhouses such as Washington, New Mexico, and Colorado St. Just my prediction, but if they were in the big ten, they would have added around 7 conference losses to their 4 non conference losses. This would leave them with 11 losses and sitting on the bubble, probably on the outside.

In my opinion, this is why the big ten ends up seeded to low and as a result, has been underperforming in the tournament. You can use the metrics all you want, but look at how quad 1 wins turn to quad 2, 2 to 3 in the big ten. They all have to play good teams every night.
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St. Mary’s is in the top 10 in almost every advanced metric. They also have quite a few quad 1 wins, even if they don’t blow you away…their resume is what a team like Houston or Loyola was missing when they were “under seeded” which is quantity of quad 1 wins. And to your point, the WCC is as deep as it’s ever been this year, not just saying that…
 
#119      

SCMART Illini

S
SCMART Illini
SkyysNotFalling said:
St. Mary’s is in the top 10 in almost every advanced metric. They also have quite a few quad 1 wins, even if they don’t blow you away…their resume is what a team like Houston or Loyola was missing when they were “under seeded” which is quantity of quad 1 wins. And to your point, the WCC is as deep as it’s ever been this year, not just saying that…
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Just compare Wisconsin and their season. Came into the big ten with 2 losses, one to Kansas, the other to Wake Forest, look at them now. How does Kansas and Wake Forest compare to Washington, New Mexico, and Colorado St.?

At this point, playing Wisconsin lowers your SOS. I'm guessing that would be in comparison to playing mid-level WCC teams.
 
#120      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
SCMART Illini said:
Just compare Wisconsin and their season. Came into the big ten with 2 losses, one to Kansas, the other to Wake Forest, look at them now. How does Kansas and Wake Forest compare to Washington, New Mexico, and Colorado St.?

At this point, playing Wisconsin lowers your SOS. I'm guessing that would be in comparison to playing mid-level WCC teams.
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I’m not saying SMC would be world beaters in the B1G. It’s just that, they have some decent wins, and they’re top 10 in just about everything. I think they’re prettt safe on a top 5 seed line if the season ended today…Something teams like Loyola or Wichita St a few years ago was missing!
 
#121      

SCMART Illini

S
SCMART Illini
SkyysNotFalling said:
I’m not saying SMC would be world beaters in the B1G. It’s just that, they have some decent wins, and they’re top 10 in just about everything. I think they’re prettt safe on a top 5 seed line if the season ended today…Something teams like Loyola or Wichita St a few years ago was missing!
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I just don't see it. They have 2 quad 1 wins, which neither of those teams play in p5 conferences, so they're potentially boosted for the same reason.

Just my opinion, which isn't worth much. Not a big deal either way. If they get a 3 seed, good for them.
 
#122      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
SCMART Illini said:
I just don't see it. They have 2 quad 1 wins, which neither of those teams play in p5 conferences, so they're potentially boosted for the same reason.

Just my opinion, which isn't worth much. Not a big deal either way. If they get a 3 seed, good for them.
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#124      

Navy_illini

N
Navy_illini
Here is how I see you it best case for a team win the remaining worst case lose every game and most likely is how I think it will go

Team. Best. Worst most likely
PU 1. 3. 1
IU. 3. 10. 4
Illini. 3. 10. 5
RU. 4. Out. 6
Iowa. 4. Out. 6
MD. 4. Out. 5
MSU. 6. Out. 7
NW. 4. Out. 9
Wisky. 9. Out. Out
scUM. 10. Out. Out

I think MD and NW have the hardest schedules left and could move up. I think PU IU and us are locks. RU is close to being a lock
 
#125      

BBlock24

B
BBlock24
Sucks that Bucky Badger keeps crapping the bed. Takes away an additional quad 1 win. Hopefully they can squeak back into the top 75 by bracket release time.
 
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