If not getting any Q1 wins might mean a 6/7 seed, then I am not too concerned. However, with some Q1 wins, it would show that the Illini can be a dangerous team come tournament time.need some Q1 wins. 2-6 Q1 record doesn't look great.
If not getting any Q1 wins might mean a 6/7 seed, then I am not too concerned. However, with some Q1 wins, it would show that the Illini can be a dangerous team come tournament time.need some Q1 wins. 2-6 Q1 record doesn't look great.
Nothing is keeping us afloat. We are 16-7 in one of the best conferences in the country. Going to have 20 plus wins again most likely. Not needing to worry about to tournament is always nice
But...you can't take away those wins, so we aren't.If you take away our wins over UCLA and Texas, we're definitely worrying about making the tournament.
That's not how this works lol. There have been multiple games we could/should have won, such as Iowa or MarylandIf you take away our wins over UCLA and Texas, we're definitely worrying about making the tournament.
To be fair, if most teams had their best wins taken away, they would be worried about making the tournament.If you take away our wins over UCLA and Texas, we're definitely worrying about making the tournament.
But...you can't take away those wins, so we aren't.
Funny the 2 closest games of the yearThat's not how this works lol. There have been multiple games we could/should have won, such as Iowa or Maryland
I think sometimes people forget this is all relative, and Illini resume is good vs many other teams this year. For example, there are looking to be 10-12 teams combined from the ACC, BigEast, and PAC10 this year who are all having terribly down years as conferences.Don't worry about the Quad stuff too much, it's shorthand but it's not the Tournament Committee's big focus. Every Big Ten game that is played not involving our team will be more or less a net neutral (technically it's better if team we play twice beat teams we play once if you really want to fine tune for margins). Our NET is a comfortable 26th. Those "Quad 2" wins are all "Quad 2-A", while 5 of the 8 "Quad 1" games we've played are in "Quad 1-A" if you want to get really nitty gritty on that sort of thing. Just don't mess up that home makeup game against Minnesota. Win at least some of your other games and keep pace in a competitive Big Ten.
Whether Wisconsin is a 1/2 or a 2/3 considering they're right near the cutoff line isn't meaningfully impactful. The cutoffs are arbitrary, and while people love their arbitrary cutoffs, the committee isn't going to do anything drastic with where a team like ours falls based on whether Wisconsin is NET 73 or NET 77.
I also don't see the point of "take away the two best wins on the season...." discussion, yeah most teams in the 5-6-7 range on bracketmatrix would be in the same boat and Illinois stands out for having 2 very marquee wins on neutral floors against teams that are bracketmatrix 2 seeds right now.
Do these in season brackets assume the positions if the season ended today, or anticipate the end of season result?
I think sometimes people forget this is all relative, and Illini resume is good vs many other teams this year. For example, there are looking to be 10-12 teams combined from the ACC, BigEast, and PAC10 this year who are all having terribly down years as conferences.
Exactly ... just watch the top 25 polls from week to week. A casual Illini fan might think we wouldn't be ranked on Monday if we beat #24 Rutgers, but it's not JUST about what we do ... it's about the absolute cluster**** that is college basketball this year. Just look at how much movement is possible this week alone:I think sometimes people forget this is all relative, and Illini resume is good vs many other teams this year. For example, there are looking to be 10-12 teams combined from the ACC, BigEast, and PAC10 this year who are all having terribly down years as conferences.
In case you're interested, barttorvik does T-Rank Bracket Projections
13-7 will most likely be a double bye this year. Don't think Iowa or Maryland get to 13, especially the latter. Also would not be surprised to see Rutgers drop a couple more as wellI just played around with that awesome BTT seed calculator/simulator for the rest of the season, with the following "upsets" or results that went against the simulator's assumed outcomes:
Michigan beats Indiana at home
Michigan State wins at Ohio State
Wisconsin beats Michigan at home
*** Maryland upsets Purdue at home ***
Iowa wins at Wisconsin
Penn State beats Maryland at home
It also assumes that our only losses down the stretch will be at Indiana and at Purdue, FWIW. That gets us these seeds (tie breakers are head-to-head or best round-robin record among the tied teams against each other):
1. Purdue (17-3)
2. Rutgers (14-6)
3. Iowa (13-7)
4. Maryland (13-7)
5. Illinois (13-7)
6. Indiana (12-8)
7. Michigan State (12-8)
8. Michigan (11-9)
9. Northwestern (8-12)
10. Penn State (8-12)
11. Wisconsin (8-12)
12. Nebraska (5-15)
13. Ohio State (5-15)
14. Minnesota (1-19)
And here would be the Illini BTT schedule at the UC in Chicago, where we'd have a nice little crowd advantage, getting more advantageous the further we advance!
Thursday 3/9: vs. winner of (12) Nebraska and (13) Ohio State
Friday 3/10: vs. (4) Maryland
Saturday 3/11: vs. winner of (1) Purdue and (8) Michigan/(9) Northwestern
Sunday 3/12: TBD ... hopefully vs. (3) Iowa!!
These are obviously just my random predictions really far out, but based on tie breakers ... if we want that double bye, I think we have to steal some revenge in Bloomington.
If we get a 6 seed and have to play 5 seed St Mary’s in the round of 32, I’m gonna lose my mind.
Would be the 3rd year in a row we take on a top 10 KenPom team in the second round.
Unless they win WAC regular season and postseason title, can't see them any higher than a 4 seed. I do think they end up as a 5 seed.I think you mean 3 seed St. Mary's.
Unless they win WAC regular season and postseason title, can't see them any higher than a 4 seed. I do think they end up as a 5 seed.
Sorry fast fingers on cell phone. I meant WCC.Would be impressive for St. Mary's to win the WAC since they're in the WCC.
We are not a bubble team. It's just the Dec poor string and our poor 3pt shooting left a bad taste in people's mouth. I think we will be OK but we really need to take care of the ball and find ways to be more efficient in offence if we want to do well in tournament. In our current shape, I think we are lucky if we can get to the 2nd week in tourney. Truthfully, I am very disappointed about our 3pt shooting. I thought this is the year we have lots of cannons on the perimeter. Now I wish we can have Trent back.Agreed, unless he just meant "afloat" for a top 6 seed ... but it really sounded like he was insinuating that we were close to being a Bubble team, and we are not. We've put together a pretty good resume with no bad losses, and we'll be favorites or in pick 'em games for at least 5 of our 8 remaining games. If we continue to play well, the wins will start to follow again and we'll be in a great spot on Selection Sunday.
If we get a 6 seed and have to play 5 seed St Mary’s in the round of 32, I’m gonna lose my mind.
Would be the 3rd year in a row we take on a top 10 KenPom team in the second round.
Ya'll are crazy..St Mary's is a good team but I'd take that second round matchup 100/100 times.
I'm pretty done with mid-major teams that are much better than their resume would suggest, thank you very much. Give me something like Xavier - a 6 seed with the team sheet of a 3 seed.
St Mary's and Loyola are not the same lol. Loyola is a couple bounces away from being irrelevant. St Mary's has been a really good program for a very long time. Even then, I'd take them in a second round matchup.