Bracketology

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 13, 2023

CleverHandle1 said:
Great stuff! Is Michigan State inching closer to a Q1 win? I believe their low 30's at this point.

Yeah, they skyrocketed up to #32 (from #41) after their win at Ohio State ... for some reason, the computers love OSU, so beating the crap out of them in Columbus really helps your NET ranking! Take note, Illini!!!! As for the MSU win, if they become top 30, it will be Quad 1; otherwise, it's Quad 2. This is MSU's remaining schedule, using NET rankings:

vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4)
at #68 Michigan (Q1)
vs. #17 Indiana (Q1)
at #39 Iowa (Q1)
at #100 Nebraska (Q2)
vs. #54 Ohio State (Q1)

Especially if they can nab that road win at Michigan (I think Iowa takes some brutal revenge in Iowa City) or beat Indiana at home, I actually think there's a decent chance that could end up being a Quad 1 win by the end of the year. As long as it doesn't negatively affect us in the Big Ten standings, we should be rooting for Sparty.

theNewGuy said:
I feel like this team is just not getting the respect it deserves. It's like everyone forgot we beat Texas and UCLA. Been on the verge of being ranked for so long.
I guess I just need to get used to it.

It kind of reminds me of last season when we were receiving votes from like late November until mid-January, even as we kept winning; it then only took us a month to shoot up to #12.

I think, if we keep winning, we could see a similarly fast/big jump for this year's team. We are currently #28, just behind Northwestern and Missouri. If we were to win at Penn State and look good in a loss at Indiana, I could honestly see us sneaking in at #25 if there are enough upsets. These are some relevant games this week to watch if you care about rankings like me!

#18 Creighton at #24 Providence ... go 'Jays!
#23 NC State at Syracuse ... TWO reasons to root for 'Cuse here!
#22 TCU at #19 Iowa State ... honestly could see the loser dropping out. TCU fell five spots and Iowa State fell EIGHT spots in the latest poll.
Seton Hall at #20 UConn ... never know, go Pirates!
#19 Iowa State at #12 Kansas State ... Iowa State is almost certainly out with two losses this week!
Oklahoma State at #22 TCU ... this is one to watch, you heard it here first!

Of course, if the Illini go 2-0 on the road this week, we will need absolutely no help from anybody and will almost certainly be inside the top 20. We'd be 19-7 (10-5), fresh off a win at #14 Indiana. Let's do it!

Mr. Roberts · Feb 13, 2023

theNewGuy said:
I feel like this team is just not getting the respect it deserves. It's like everyone forgot we beat Texas and UCLA. Been on the verge of being ranked for so long.
I guess I just need to get used to it.

I'm OK with this. Brad can use it to motivate, and other teams may be less focused on an "unranked" Illinois.

Snoopy · Feb 13, 2023

The last thing this team needs is recognition. Thankful for those early wins on the resume, but I feel the early season hype didn’t help a team that we learned had a number of things to work on. Both with respect to coaching and individual effort and play.

BackThatPassUp · Feb 13, 2023

theNewGuy said:
I feel like this team is just not getting the respect it deserves. It's like everyone forgot we beat Texas and UCLA. Been on the verge of being ranked for so long.
I guess I just need to get used to it.

It also seems that some teams just maintain respect no matter the results. Iowa state is top 20 despite 1 win in the last 5 games, uconn is 5-6 since the new year and still ranked and tcu appears to lose almost every other game but we're still paying interest on the late december/early January skid.

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 13, 2023

Count me in the rankings are objectively good camp ... I don't think our early rankings affected this team negatively at all ... we beat #8 UCLA and #2 Texas ranked in the top 20, and we lost to Northwestern and got punked by Indiana while we weren't ranked. I find it a weird exercise to prefer not to be ranked for psychological reasons, as I don't think the players play any differently one way or the other; we just needed time to come together again after a rough stretch in December and early January. Meanwhile, there are TV channels and social media accounts that practically only check the "top 25 scores" to report on, and your average college basketball fan (especially young ones) lazily assume that any program worth a crap has that number next to their name. I always want Illinois ranked every single week.

One Man Fast Break · Feb 13, 2023

Yeah rankings are pretty sticky, and being "not ranked" is pretty sticky as well. We were pretty close and then lost @ Iowa, which isn't even a bad loss, and so winning home vs. Rutgers doesn't get respect. You gotta do a big thing like beating Purdue or Tennessee to all of a sudden shoot up in votes. Missouri and Northwestern are both nipping at the top 25 heels, Illinois not far behind but probably won't get ranked even if they go 1-1 @ Penn State and @ Indiana.

21 in KP, 20 in ESPN's BPI thing, 22 in NET. Let's not talk about T-Rank...

blife · Feb 13, 2023

theNewGuy said:
I feel like this team is just not getting the respect it deserves. It's like everyone forgot we beat Texas and UCLA. Been on the verge of being ranked for so long.
I guess I just need to get used to it.

It is all about peaking at the right time. Don't care about the rankings, as long as we are consistent and playing our best basketball in March. We are going to be dangerous and a tough out.

urbanite · Feb 13, 2023

BackThatPassUp said:
It also seems that some teams just maintain respect no matter the results. Iowa state is top 20 despite 1 win in the last 5 games, uconn is 5-6 since the new year and still ranked and tcu appears to lose almost every other game but we're still paying interest on the late december/early January skid.

Agree about Connecticut, but B12 teams are always going to have an advantage in this regard due to the strength of the conference. The B12 has no bad teams, and the worst team (Oklahoma or Texas Tech) is somewhere in the range of Michigan/Penn St./Wisconsin in the B10. 70% of the conference is in the KenPom top 25 (compared to 29% for the B10). They're being rewarded for a more difficult schedule.

Iowa St., for example, has played 13 games since conference play started in late December. 11 of those are Quad 1, and they've gone 5-6 in those games. Illinois has played 11 games since conference play resumed in January. Only 4 of those are Quad 1, and we've gone 1-3 in those games.

pruman91 · Feb 13, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Count me in the rankings are objectively good camp ... I don't think our early rankings affected this team negatively at all ... we beat #8 UCLA and #2 Texas ranked in the top 20, and we lost to Northwestern and got punked by Indiana while we weren't ranked. I find it a weird exercise to prefer not to be ranked for psychological reasons, as I don't think the players play any differently one way or the other; we just needed time to come together again after a rough stretch in December and early January. Meanwhile, there are TV channels and social media accounts that practically only check the "top 25 scores" to report on, and your average college basketball fan (especially young ones) lazily assume that any program worth a crap has that number next to their name. I always want Illinois ranked every single week.

mysterio2525 · Feb 13, 2023

urbanite said:
Agree about Connecticut, but B12 teams are always going to have an advantage in this regard due to the strength of the conference. The B12 has no bad teams, and the worst team (Oklahoma or Texas Tech) is somewhere in the range of Michigan/Penn St./Wisconsin in the B10. 70% of the conference is in the KenPom top 25 (compared to 29% for the B10). They're being rewarded for a more difficult schedule.

Iowa St., for example, has played 13 games since conference play started in late December. 11 of those are Quad 1, and they've gone 5-6 in those games. Illinois has played 11 games since conference play resumed in January. Only 4 of those are Quad 1, and we've gone 1-3 in those games.

Also doesn't hurt that our 2 best players have won several games in the NCAA tourney already

Ga65 · Feb 13, 2023

Need to beat either Indiana or Purdue to be in top four for the BIG tournament. Would help to be rested. Don’t really give a rat’s ax what our seed is in the dance. Play well and we can beat anyone. Play crappy and we can lose to anyone, so what the hell difference does it make where we are seeded. JMHO (or maybe not so humble).

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 13, 2023

Ga65 said:
Need to beat either Indiana or Purdue to be in top four for the BIG tournament. Would help to be rested. Don’t really give a rat’s ax what our seed is in the dance. Play well and we can beat anyone. Play crappy and we can lose to anyone, so what the hell difference does it make where we are seeded. JMHO (or maybe not so humble).

I get what you mean after we just had the exact same result (in a similar, frustrating fashion) as both a #1 seed and a #4 seed, but the stats always say get the higher seed. While I think this team can do both extreme situations you mentioned, imagine us in a #3 seed spot. We might survive that first crappy game vs. the #14 if we have an off night (think Chattanooga last year!) whereas we might have gone down to the #10 seed as a #7.

I will say, however, I might almost rather be a #6 than a #4/5 in a year like this ... no one looks TRULY elite, but running into a #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen as a #4/5 just sucks (think 2004 Illini who were hot and just couldn't overcome #1 Duke), and I think there will be a significant dropoff from the #1 seeds to the #2/3 seeds this year. Hell, a lot of #3 vs. #6 matchups in the Sweet Sixteen might be pick 'ems.

RabidDawgClassic · Feb 13, 2023

Ga65 said:
Need to beat either Indiana or Purdue to be in top four for the BIG tournament. Would help to be rested. Don’t really give a rat’s ax what our seed is in the dance. Play well and we can beat anyone. Play crappy and we can lose to anyone, so what the hell difference does it make where we are seeded. JMHO (or maybe not so humble).

If you don’t think seeding is important in the NCAA Tournament, then you have clearly not watched many NCAA Tournaments.

BBlock24 · Feb 13, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
I get what you mean after we just had the exact same result (in a similar, frustrating fashion) as both a #1 seed and a #4 seed, but the stats always say get the higher seed. While I think this team can do both extreme situations you mentioned, imagine us in a #3 seed spot. We might survive that first crappy game vs. the #14 if we have an off night (think Chattanooga last year!) whereas we might have gone down to the #10 seed as a #7.

I will say, however, I might almost rather be a #6 than a #4/5 in a year like this ... no one looks TRULY elite, but running into a #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen as a #4/5 just sucks (think 2004 Illini who were hot and just couldn't overcome #1 Duke), and I think there will be a significant dropoff from the #1 seeds to the #2/3 seeds this year. Hell, a lot of #3 vs. #6 matchups in the Sweet Sixteen might be pick 'ems.

Yeah I remember they absolutely throttled Cincinnati in the second round that year. They were in the whole game against Duke but couldn’t get stops while also scoring.

Fighter of the Nightman · Feb 13, 2023

Lol, another random Bracketology thought, I was looking where the NCAA Tournament sites are for the next couple of years ... let's hope we are really good in 2026, because look at this potential path:

First Weekend: St. Louis, MO in an arena we play in every single year
Second Weekend: Chicago, IL in an arena we SHOULD play in every single year (again)
Final Four: Indianapolis, IN

sacraig · Feb 13, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Lol, another random Bracketology thought, I was looking where the NCAA Tournament sites are for the next couple of years ... let's hope we are really good in 2026, because look at this potential path:

First Weekend: St. Louis, MO in an arena we play in every single year
Second Weekend: Chicago, IL in an arena we SHOULD play in every single year (again)
Final Four: Indianapolis, IN

That's very similar to the NCAA Tournament from 2005, which was... pretty good to us.

One Man Fast Break · Feb 14, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Lol, another random Bracketology thought, I was looking where the NCAA Tournament sites are for the next couple of years ... let's hope we are really good in 2026, because look at this potential path:

First Weekend: St. Louis, MO in an arena we play in every single year
Second Weekend: Chicago, IL in an arena we SHOULD play in every single year (again)
Final Four: Indianapolis, IN

Damn, I better book my tickets now. Epps, Rodgers and Harris hopefully all here as Seniors. Nobody seems to really know Dainja's status, but throw him in as well. Final Four here we go.

Saturdaze · Feb 14, 2023

If anyone has questions regarding team selection and seeding this precisely spells it out:

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/images/2022/02/13/2021-22%20Principles%20and%20Procedures.pdf

Saturdaze · Feb 14, 2023

One Man Fast Break said:
Damn, I better book my tickets now. Epps, Rodgers and Harris hopefully all here as Seniors. Nobody seems to really know Dainja's status, but throw him in as well. Final Four here we go.

Redshirt sophomore, but he should get a 6th year to play 5 (3 more years after this season). See page 8, question 1 in link below:

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/compliance/d1/D1GOV_COVID-19QAGuide.pdf

Dain Dainja - 2023-24 - Men's Basketball - University of Illinois Athletics

Dain Dainja (42) F/C - NIL Opportunities Dainja's Career & Season Game-By-Game Stats (PDF) 2022-23 Sophomore One of six Illini to play in all 37 games

fightingillini.com

Illini in Italy · Feb 14, 2023

Fighter of the Nightman said:
Updated Illini resume time...

Record: 17-7
NET Ranking: #22
SOS Ranking: #26
Road Record: 3-3
Neutral Court Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-6
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0

Notes on Current Resume
- #5 UCLA and #7 Texas, both on neutral courts?! That is a DAMN fine non-conference resume, folks!
- #80 Wisconsin is screwing us ... ideally, we need them in the top 75. They play Michigan tomorrow, followed by Rutgers and Iowa all at home. It would be REALLY nice for them to stabilize.
- #67 Penn State is threatening to be a Quad 3 loss if they drop below 75; it also deprives us of a Quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if they keep dropping. After we beat them tomorrow , we need them to at least win at Minnesota to avoid tanking and probably at OSU later this month, as OSU is a lot higher in the rankings.

Upcoming Games:
at #67 Penn State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
at #17 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4 because they're #241 ... but they'll drop further)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2 likely no matter what)
at #54 Ohio State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
vs. #68 Michigan (Q2 if they're top 75, Q3 if they fall below 75)
at #4 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)

My head hurts trying to sort out who plays whom and how each team will rise/fall in the rankings, but we pretty much have these games left:

Q1 No Matter What - GOLDEN opportunities
at #17 Indiana
at #4 Purdue

Q1 For Now, Q2 at Worst - Need both for a truly good seed
at #67 Penn State
at #54 Ohio State

Likely Q2, Q3 at Worst - Cannot drop these games at home
vs. #44 Northwestern
vs. #68 Michigan

Q4 Territory - WIN OR DIE TRYING
vs. #241 Minnesota

According to most things I have seen, we are currently in 6-seed territory. I have to figure that our "par for the course" to stay right there is to go 5-0 in the bottom three categories and lose at Indiana and at Purdue, no? That kind of makes me think that, assuming no trip-ups anywhere else, a win in either Bloomington or West Lafayette is (in a vacuum) our ticket to a "protected" seed (I believe #4 and higher still get placed as close to home as logistically possible).

I know a lot of people think a #6 is better than a #4 or #5 because you only face a #3 seed in the Second Round, but in a year like this ... give me the #4. The main reason I say that is because if we have won all of our games until the last one at Purdue and are sitting comfortably on the 4 line, that game in Mackey is (A) likely for back-to-back Big Ten championships and (B) for a #3 seed. And who wouldn't want a #3 seed??

Second place is 1st loser · Feb 14, 2023

theNewGuy said:
I feel like this team is just not getting the respect it deserves. It's like everyone forgot we beat Texas and UCLA. Been on the verge of being ranked for so long.
I guess I just need to get used to it.

To be fair, this team also lost to Missouri, Northwestern and Penn State....all by double digits. We were down almost 40 to Missouri. Can't cherry pick two games in November, then ignore that rough patch in December. It all counts.

mysterio2525 · Feb 14, 2023

Second place is 1st loser said:
To be fair, this team also lost to Missouri, Northwestern and Penn State....all by double digits. We were down almost 40 to Missouri. Can't cherry pick two games in November, then ignore that rough patch in December. It all counts.

That Mizzou game was rough. I went out with non illini friends and made them move to a bar that had the sec network to watch the game. Yikes, that didn't work out so well.

My friend alcohol helped eased the pain that night but even that can't erase being down 30+

SCMART Illini · Feb 14, 2023

Second place is 1st loser said:
To be fair, this team also lost to Missouri, Northwestern and Penn State....all by double digits. We were down almost 40 to Missouri. Can't cherry pick two games in November, then ignore that rough patch in December. It all counts.

I know it's still hard to imagine, but Northwestern is in 2nd place in the conference and Missouri is 4th in the SEC. So those aren't horrible losses. Penn St. was obviously playing much better back then, they beat Indiana and Michigan by 20 each. So if you want to concentrate on the double digit part, ok, but all three of these teams have won some big games.

Illini2010-11 · Feb 14, 2023

SCMART Illini said:
I know it's still hard to imagine, but Northwestern is in 2nd place in the conference and Missouri is 4th in the SEC. So those aren't horrible losses. Penn St. was obviously playing much better back then, they beat Indiana and Michigan by 20 each. So if you want to concentrate on the double digit part, ok, but all three of these teams have won some big games.

At this point, only the Penn State loss looks bad from a resume standpoint, but being blown out in all three of those games remains valid. Those three losses never felt competitive in the second half, and I turned off the game with multiple minutes left for all of them (which means it was terrible to watch). We have two marquee wins and three big clunker games. When you put all of this together, this team is ranked exactly where they should be (considering the fully body of work). All I care about is having the best on-court product when it matters (late February through early April). A little ranking number in front of the name does not mean much to me until close to tournament time.

Roundball Sage · Feb 14, 2023

Regardless of where the Illini are seeded they have to be ready to play anyone and everyone. There is no easy road to winning consecutive games against the best teams in the country.

The big concern that has emerged once again this Season are those five minute stretches with no points scored. It’s happened too many times already. And in Tourney Time when you are not allowed a single slip-up, a stretch like that can prove fatal to the hopes of the Season. The lllini simply have to learn how to play better Tournament ball. And you can only gain that experience by playing that kind of game-pressure ball.

The Orange seem to lurk around that 25 spot in the rankings. Which seems fair for how the Season has gone. A nice place to hide while everyone else is centering on the top 8 or so.

Illini need to come out strong and confident and start seizing these games instead of playing tight and playing catch-up. No one outside of Illini Nation expects the Orange to win the National Championship so the team is playing with house money in March and can play fast and loose.