Updated Illini resume time...
Record: 17-7
NET Ranking: #22
SOS Ranking: #26
Road Record: 3-3
Neutral Court Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-6
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0
Notes on Current Resume
- #5 UCLA and #7 Texas, both on neutral courts?! That is a DAMN fine non-conference resume, folks!
- #80 Wisconsin is screwing us ... ideally, we need them in the top 75. They play Michigan tomorrow, followed by Rutgers and Iowa all at home. It would be REALLY nice for them to stabilize.
- #67 Penn State is threatening to be a Quad 3 loss if they drop below 75; it also deprives us of a Quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if they keep dropping. After we beat them tomorrow
, we need them to at least win at Minnesota to avoid tanking and probably at OSU later this month, as OSU is a lot higher in the rankings.
Upcoming Games:
at #67 Penn State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
at #17 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4
because they're #241 ... but they'll drop further)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2
likely no matter what)
at #54 Ohio State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
vs. #68 Michigan (Q2 if they're top 75, Q3 if they fall below 75)
at #4 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)
My head hurts trying to sort out who plays whom and how each team will rise/fall in the rankings, but we pretty much have these games left:
Q1 No Matter What - GOLDEN opportunities
at #17 Indiana
at #4 Purdue
Q1 For Now, Q2 at Worst - Need both for a truly good seed
at #67 Penn State
at #54 Ohio State
Likely Q2, Q3 at Worst - Cannot drop these games at home
vs. #44 Northwestern
vs. #68 Michigan
Q4 Territory - WIN OR DIE TRYING
vs. #241 Minnesota
According to most things I have seen, we are currently in 6-seed territory. I have to figure that our "par for the course" to stay right there is to go 5-0 in the bottom three categories and lose at Indiana and at Purdue, no? That kind of makes me think that, assuming no trip-ups anywhere else, a win in either Bloomington or West Lafayette is (in a vacuum) our ticket to a "protected" seed (I believe #4 and higher still get placed as close to home as logistically possible).
I know a lot of people think a #6 is better than a #4 or #5 because you only face a #3 seed in the Second Round, but in a year like this ... give me the #4. The main reason I say that is because if we have won all of our games until the last one at Purdue and are sitting comfortably on the 4 line, that game in Mackey is (A) likely for back-to-back Big Ten championships and (B) for a #3 seed. And who wouldn't want a #3 seed??