Any 6 seed will be licking their chops with a three seed St Mary’s. This is a team that lost to LMU a couple days ago..
Bracketology
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Any 6 seed will be licking their chops with a three seed St Mary’s. This is a team that lost to LMU a couple days ago..
Then it clearly looks like we want the 10 seed, since there is no past performance to keep us from winning it all!
We’d make a pretty imposing 16 seed, too.
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
BIG Tourney Scenario Selector for 2023 ??? - Does anyone have this link and spreadsheet from last year ready to go? It was AWESOME.
Is it too early to bring this out?
Is it too early to bring this out?
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Who would have thought NW would be approaching near lock status before Valentines Day?
Also the late double team adjustment against Edey will be used by a lot of teams down the stretch.
Also the late double team adjustment against Edey will be used by a lot of teams down the stretch.
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Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Yeah, I think the ceiling for St. Mary's is a 4 seed after LMU loss. I think they were a projected 5 seed before that loss. My guess is they end up a 5 or 6 seed when all is said and done...maybe even a 7 seed if Gonzaga beats them twice down stretch and they take another one or two losses.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
I get that todays game will move them up a seed line, but why is NW 3-4 seed lines below us (5-6 seed vs 8-10). When I look at the resumes, they seem so similar.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
Going into today, they have a very solid team, but the resume really lacked the very high end wins that we had on neutral sites (UCLA, Texas). This win might change things substantially, and makes the rematch in Champaign another resume building opportunity.
The non-conference schedule was also very soft. They would have been in a better position if they beat Auburn, but they lost the games to higher quality non-conference opponents.
There is a reason why they were on the "work left to do" portion of bubble watch vs "should be in"...
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They don't have a resume similar to us. No good non-con wins, lost to Rutgers, Michigan by 17, Pitt by 29, and OSU (yuck) all at home.
Look at their non-conf schedule. It was an absolute joke
IlliniMike_Aurora
Straight outta Champaign
Thanks Ayo !
I can't wait to check the torvik B1G standings odds tomorrow morning. It's going to be madness.
DB11Headband
- Chicago Burbs
They will
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
CBS Top 25 + 1 just updated.........
| Adama Sanogo missed 10 of the 17 shots he attempted in Saturday's 56-53 loss at Creighton. The Huskies' next game is Saturday against Seton Hall. | -- | 19-7 | ||
| 23 |
NC State | Jarkel Joiner finished with 26 points and six assists in Saturday's 92-62 win at Boston College. The Wolfpack's next game is Tuesday at Syracuse. | 1 | 20-6 |
| 24 |
Missouri | Kobe Brown finished with 21 points and five rebounds in Saturday's 86-85 win at Tennessee. The Tigers' next game is Tuesday at Auburn. | NR | 19-6 |
| 25 |
Nevada | Will Baker finished with 19 points and five rebounds in Friday's 77-66 win over Fresno State. The Wolf Pack's next game is Saturday at Utah State. | NR | 20-6 |
| 26 |
Illinois | Coleman Hawkins finished with 18 points and eight rebounds in Saturday's 69-60 win over Rutgers. The Illini's next game is Tuesday at Penn State. | NR | 17-7 |
Bigtex
- DFW
Maryland only B1G team undefeated at home
At this point, the ONLY thing that matters, is that the Illini win (out).
Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win.
Whatever else happens, happens.
Agreed, they only played Auburn and lost. Their next two tiered games were Pittsburgh, lost and GTown, win. They wont get better than a 8 seed
Torivk's top 4 odds are updated, and it's a doozy!
Conference Title Odds and T-Rank WinMatrix™ - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.www.barttorvik.com
We have a 45% chance at a double-bye. Obviously Purdue will get one, and Rutgers has a 95% chance. So that leaves 2 spots remaining, and those spots are wide open. There are 7 teams, including us, with anywhere between a 24%-56% chance at a double-bye. Maryland is at the top at 56% which is a little surprising, but their remaining schedule is pretty favorable. Northwestern is the bottom of that 7 team group with a 24% chance. Then you have Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, and Michigan St somewhere in between. Penn St and Wisconsin do still have an outside chance at 7% and 3%, respectively.
Conference Title Odds and T-Rank WinMatrix™ - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com
Our double-bye odds are up slightly, to 53.5% now. I think this is mainly due to PSU and Wisconsin's chances basically going down to 0. Still 8 teams (other than Purdue) fighting for that double-bye. It's wide open.
I think it's important to note, tOSU is still ranked 55, which means torvik is expecting that game to be much tougher than it actually is. They are arguably worse than Nebraska right now. So any team with tOSU on their schedule is going to have better odds than torvik says.
And they’re out already in todays update having been replaced by NW.CBS Top 25 + 1 just updated.........
Adama Sanogo missed 10 of the 17 shots he attempted in Saturday's 56-53 loss at Creighton. The Huskies' next game is Saturday against Seton Hall. -- 19-7 23
NC StateJarkel Joiner finished with 26 points and six assists in Saturday's 92-62 win at Boston College. The Wolfpack's next game is Tuesday at Syracuse. 1 20-6 24
MissouriKobe Brown finished with 21 points and five rebounds in Saturday's 86-85 win at Tennessee. The Tigers' next game is Tuesday at Auburn. NR 19-6 25
NevadaWill Baker finished with 19 points and five rebounds in Friday's 77-66 win over Fresno State. The Wolf Pack's next game is Saturday at Utah State. NR 20-6 26
IllinoisColeman Hawkins finished with 18 points and eight rebounds in Saturday's 69-60 win over Rutgers. The Illini's next game is Tuesday at Penn State. NR 17-7
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Updated Illini resume time...
Record: 17-7
NET Ranking: #22
SOS Ranking: #26
Road Record: 3-3
Neutral Court Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-6
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0
Notes on Current Resume
- #5 UCLA and #7 Texas, both on neutral courts?! That is a DAMN fine non-conference resume, folks!
- #80 Wisconsin is screwing us ... ideally, we need them in the top 75. They play Michigan tomorrow, followed by Rutgers and Iowa all at home. It would be REALLY nice for them to stabilize.
- #67 Penn State is threatening to be a Quad 3 loss if they drop below 75; it also deprives us of a Quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if they keep dropping. After we beat them tomorrow , we need them to at least win at Minnesota to avoid tanking and probably at OSU later this month, as OSU is a lot higher in the rankings.
Upcoming Games:
at #67 Penn State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
at #17 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4 because they're #241 ... but they'll drop further)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2 likely no matter what)
at #54 Ohio State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
vs. #68 Michigan (Q2 if they're top 75, Q3 if they fall below 75)
at #4 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)
My head hurts trying to sort out who plays whom and how each team will rise/fall in the rankings, but we pretty much have these games left:
Q1 No Matter What - GOLDEN opportunities
at #17 Indiana
at #4 Purdue
Q1 For Now, Q2 at Worst - Need both for a truly good seed
at #67 Penn State
at #54 Ohio State
Likely Q2, Q3 at Worst - Cannot drop these games at home
vs. #44 Northwestern
vs. #68 Michigan
Q4 Territory - WIN OR DIE TRYING
vs. #241 Minnesota
According to most things I have seen, we are currently in 6-seed territory. I have to figure that our "par for the course" to stay right there is to go 5-0 in the bottom three categories and lose at Indiana and at Purdue, no? That kind of makes me think that, assuming no trip-ups anywhere else, a win in either Bloomington or West Lafayette is (in a vacuum) our ticket to a "protected" seed (I believe #4 and higher still get placed as close to home as logistically possible).
I know a lot of people think a #6 is better than a #4 or #5 because you only face a #3 seed in the Second Round, but in a year like this ... give me the #4. The main reason I say that is because if we have won all of our games until the last one at Purdue and are sitting comfortably on the 4 line, that game in Mackey is (A) likely for back-to-back Big Ten championships and (B) for a #3 seed. And who wouldn't want a #3 seed??
Record: 17-7
NET Ranking: #22
SOS Ranking: #26
Road Record: 3-3
Neutral Court Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-6
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0
Notes on Current Resume
- #5 UCLA and #7 Texas, both on neutral courts?! That is a DAMN fine non-conference resume, folks!
- #80 Wisconsin is screwing us ... ideally, we need them in the top 75. They play Michigan tomorrow, followed by Rutgers and Iowa all at home. It would be REALLY nice for them to stabilize.
- #67 Penn State is threatening to be a Quad 3 loss if they drop below 75; it also deprives us of a Quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if they keep dropping. After we beat them tomorrow
, we need them to at least win at Minnesota to avoid tanking and probably at OSU later this month, as OSU is a lot higher in the rankings.Upcoming Games:
at #67 Penn State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
at #17 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4 because they're #241 ... but they'll drop further)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2 likely no matter what)
at #54 Ohio State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
vs. #68 Michigan (Q2 if they're top 75, Q3 if they fall below 75)
at #4 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)
My head hurts trying to sort out who plays whom and how each team will rise/fall in the rankings, but we pretty much have these games left:
Q1 No Matter What - GOLDEN opportunities
at #17 Indiana
at #4 Purdue
Q1 For Now, Q2 at Worst - Need both for a truly good seed
at #67 Penn State
at #54 Ohio State
Likely Q2, Q3 at Worst - Cannot drop these games at home
vs. #44 Northwestern
vs. #68 Michigan
Q4 Territory - WIN OR DIE TRYING
vs. #241 Minnesota
According to most things I have seen, we are currently in 6-seed territory. I have to figure that our "par for the course" to stay right there is to go 5-0 in the bottom three categories and lose at Indiana and at Purdue, no? That kind of makes me think that, assuming no trip-ups anywhere else, a win in either Bloomington or West Lafayette is (in a vacuum) our ticket to a "protected" seed (I believe #4 and higher still get placed as close to home as logistically possible).
I know a lot of people think a #6 is better than a #4 or #5 because you only face a #3 seed in the Second Round, but in a year like this ... give me the #4. The main reason I say that is because if we have won all of our games until the last one at Purdue and are sitting comfortably on the 4 line, that game in Mackey is (A) likely for back-to-back Big Ten championships and (B) for a #3 seed. And who wouldn't want a #3 seed??
I know this is a long shot, but what if somehow Texas and UCLA both get 1 seeds and we beat Purdue but they maintain their 1 seed. Could be the first time ever someone has beaten 3 1 seeds in a season?
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
It has happened once in the NCAA Tournament. Over the course of a full season, not sure the statistics there.
In 1997, Arizona beat three 1 seeds in the tournament: #1 Kansas in Sweet 16, #1 North Carolina in Final Four Semi-Final, and #1 Kentucky in Championship Game.
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Great stuff! Is Michigan State inching closer to a Q1 win? I believe their low 30's at this point.Updated Illini resume time...
Record: 17-7
NET Ranking: #22
SOS Ranking: #26
Road Record: 3-3
Neutral Court Record: 2-2
vs. Quad 1: 3-6
vs. Quad 2: 4-1
vs. Quad 3: 3-0
vs. Quad 4: 7-0
Notes on Current Resume
- #5 UCLA and #7 Texas, both on neutral courts?! That is a DAMN fine non-conference resume, folks!
- #80 Wisconsin is screwing us ... ideally, we need them in the top 75. They play Michigan tomorrow, followed by Rutgers and Iowa all at home. It would be REALLY nice for them to stabilize.
- #67 Penn State is threatening to be a Quad 3 loss if they drop below 75; it also deprives us of a Quad 1 opportunity tomorrow if they keep dropping. After we beat them tomorrow
Upcoming Games:
at #67 Penn State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
at #17 Indiana (Q1 no matter what)
vs. #241 Minnesota (Q4 because they're #241 ... but they'll drop further)
vs. #44 Northwestern (Q2 likely no matter what)
at #54 Ohio State (Q1 as long as they're top 75)
vs. #68 Michigan (Q2 if they're top 75, Q3 if they fall below 75)
at #4 Purdue (Q1 no matter what)
My head hurts trying to sort out who plays whom and how each team will rise/fall in the rankings, but we pretty much have these games left:
Q1 No Matter What - GOLDEN opportunities
at #17 Indiana
at #4 Purdue
Q1 For Now, Q2 at Worst - Need both for a truly good seed
at #67 Penn State
at #54 Ohio State
Likely Q2, Q3 at Worst - Cannot drop these games at home
vs. #44 Northwestern
vs. #68 Michigan
Q4 Territory - WIN OR DIE TRYING
vs. #241 Minnesota
According to most things I have seen, we are currently in 6-seed territory. I have to figure that our "par for the course" to stay right there is to go 5-0 in the bottom three categories and lose at Indiana and at Purdue, no? That kind of makes me think that, assuming no trip-ups anywhere else, a win in either Bloomington or West Lafayette is (in a vacuum) our ticket to a "protected" seed (I believe #4 and higher still get placed as close to home as logistically possible).
I know a lot of people think a #6 is better than a #4 or #5 because you only face a #3 seed in the Second Round, but in a year like this ... give me the #4. The main reason I say that is because if we have won all of our games until the last one at Purdue and are sitting comfortably on the 4 line, that game in Mackey is (A) likely for back-to-back Big Ten championships and (B) for a #3 seed. And who wouldn't want a #3 seed??
- Status