Pregame: Illinois vs Arkansas, Thursday, March 16th, 3:30pm CT, TBS

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#429      

PizzaHutParkingLot

PizzaHutParkingLot
McPherson, KS
PizzaHutParkingLot
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I know there's been a lot of gripes about our late game execution, but I really hope that if it goes down to the wire our senior leaders can carry us to the finish line.
 
#431      

CleverHandle1

C
CleverHandle1
Not sure if this was covered, but Arkansas 1.5 favorite? I thought I heard that on Kap & Waddle twenty minutes ago.

Maybe this game will be a lot closer than I think.
 
#436      

FromTheLogo

F
FromTheLogo
IMO, defensively, this is all about how much Nick Smith scores. He is gunna fire up 16-20 shots. Hero ball. NBA tryout time.

Offensively, if we attempt less than 20 three's and make 7, we win.
 
#439      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
alaskaillini said:
He has beat a 3 seed as a 14, and a 5 seed as a 12.
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Wow, not taking anything away from Arkansas' great postseason success the last two years, but they have indeed had some luck in their paths. In 2021, they got to play #15 seed Oral Roberts in the Sweet Sixteen and won by two. In 2022, they got to play #12 seed New Mexico State (after barely surviving #13 seed Vermont, something we know all about!) in the First Round and won a super close game. Major props for knocking off #1 seed Gonzaga last year, but it's still interesting.

Rap47 said:
A lot of posters here are fair weather fans
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Eh, I'd say more completely neurotic and totally lacking in any self confidence as an Illini fan, haha. To me, "fair weather" indicates they abandon the team when we aren't doing well and maybe even root for someone else ... even the biggest "Chicken Little" Illini fans are damn loyal, IMO.
 
#440      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
AyoDos11 said:
They will announce the time for our game against Howard on Friday morning I'm guessing.
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Oh my God, can you imagine? :ROFLMAO: Given KU fans wanting to sell their tickets, the fact that we just beat a good Arkansas team in this scenario and that the game would be on as Saturday, Des Moines would be Vegas 2.0 here, IMO.

A guy can dream! Now that I think about it, the true Illini scenario would be for our Fake Comeback to come up two points short against Arkansas after we have already seen the result come through that KU was stunned and lost, and Arkansas strolls to the Sweet Sixteen. :ROFLMAO: :cry: I'll see myself out.
 
#441      

AyoDos11

AyoDos11
Southern Illinois
AyoDos11
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Oh my God, can you imagine? :ROFLMAO: Given KU fans wanting to sell their tickets, the fact that we just beat a good Arkansas team in this scenario and that the game would be on as Saturday, Des Moines would be Vegas 2.0 here, IMO.

A guy can dream! Now that I think about it, the true Illini scenario would be for our Fake Comeback to come up two points short against Arkansas after we have already seen the result come through that KU was stunned and lost, and Arkansas strolls to the Sweet Sixteen. :ROFLMAO: :cry: I'll see myself out.
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And if we did get to play Howard, we would obviously lose, because it's Illinois. 🤣
 
#445      

Rap47

R
Rap47
One Man Fast Break said:
I've never seen an underachieving Illini team put it together and go deeper than expected in the NCAA Tournament, nobody has. But it's theoretically possible since other teams do it, so here's to hoping it's our turn.
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It seems like net rating is exactly as expected. Why is that underachieving?
 
#447      

WyattEarp

WyattEarp
WyattEarp
Fighter of the Nightman said:
That stat about A&M coming back without any 3-pointers is crazy ... and it made me want to look at our games vs. Power Five opponents this year. In these games, we averaged 7 3-pointers made on 24 3-point attempts for a percentage of 29%.

FEWEST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 78-60 at Minnesota: 5-16 (31%)
W 75-66 vs. Michigan State: 6-18 (33%)
W 97-87 vs. Michigan (2OT): 5-18 (28%)
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%)

MOST 3-POINT ATTEMPTS
W 73-44 vs. Syracuse: 11-39 (28%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)

HIGHEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 79-69 vs. Wisconsin: 10-19 (53%) ... almost all CoHawk
W 79-70 vs. UCLA (Las Vegas): 12-25 (48%) ... almost all Shannon
W 10-23 vs. Texas (NYC): 10-23 (43%)
L 80-65 vs. Indiana: 8-19 (42%) ... goes to show what TJD did to us!

LOWEST 3-POINT PERCENTAGE
W 72-56 vs. Nebraska: 5-29 (17%)
W 69-60 vs. Ohio State: 5-28 (18%)
L 72-60 at Ohio State: 6-29 (21%)
L 93-71 vs. Missouri (St. Louis): 7-31 (23%)

Some pretty telling things here:
- In the four games where we shot the most threes, we did not shoot above our season average ONE time. Our only two wins were at home against objectively bad teams, and the other two outings were embarrassments.
- In the four games where we shot the least threes, we shot above our season average in every single one except for Michigan. Wisconsin was pretty clearly a fluke shooting-wise, but recall the wins against MSU and at Minnesota; they were two of our best performances all year, and some of the few times our offense seemed to really flow.
- All in all, when we take fewer than 24 3-pointers (below our season average), we shoot 33%. When we take more than 24 3-pointers (above our season average), we shoot 28%. Obviously BU and the staff analyze this way more than my novice Excel exercise, but it's pretty clear he's right that it is likely the TYPES of threes we are taking in the games where we are jacking them up the most often.
- We took more threes than our season average in every one of our worst 3-point percentage games. Conversely, we took FEWER than our season average in all four games where we shot it the best.
- With that said, there isn't a huge correlation with wins on either end of this spectrum, which probably doesn't surprise us. We can get hot from three and beat REALLY good teams, or we can (wisely) not rely on the three and beat teams in other ways that suit our strengths. It's when we ARE NOT hot from three and yet keep taking a lot of them that we have looked our absolute worst.

One last thing to maybe give us some optimism!

Away Games: 70-262 (27%);
Home Games: 74-234 (32%)
Neutral Games: 44-126 (35%)

Even against PSU in the BTT, we shot better than our season average on fewer attempts than we average. Here's to hoping this team just likes to play in a neutral gym on a big stage, PSU is actually really good right now and we play loose/relaxed against Arkansas and know that the way to beat them is NOT to shoot too many 3-pointers ... especially contested ones!
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Good work!

I’d say that’s some validation for what a lot of us have been saying pretty much the whole year…and it follows common sense and conventional wisdom as well.
It’s funny how that works out like that sometimes. Lol

-Forced/Contested 3’s Outside of the Offensive Flow-BAD

-3’s within the Flow of the Offense-GOOD

-Looking to attack-GOOD

-Getting Lazy/Complacent/Selfish-BAD

-Running Offense-GOOD

-Not Running Offense-BAD

It’s pretty simple stuff…and this proves it.
 
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#448      

IlliniTime

IlliniTime
IlliniTime
I've been as up and down about our team as anybody who posts here, but I keep thinking that we've been without all of our players for almost all of our games this year. Goode out for most of the year, Shannon out for a few games, Mayer out for a game, Melendez out for a game, Epps in concussion mode, the Skyy going dark on us. We may be in a particularly strange situation where we have all committed players ready to go into action in the tournament.

I have us beating Arkansas and then getting totally jacked up for Kansas and beating them too. After that I dare not make any predictions. Let's not get too down on these guys. I think being a team nobody really talks about is good for us. The opposite sure as hell wasn't very good for us the past few years. I'm liking the current vibe!!!
 
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