Pregame: Illinois vs Arkansas, Thursday, March 16th, 3:30pm CT, TBS

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#477      
Back to the Arkansas-Illinois game portion of the thread, one big reason for optimism is that the advanced betting metrics as well as analytical outlets like kenpom favor Illinois covering the 2.5pt spread suggesting Illinois as 1-2 points better, meaning that while the majority of bettors will favor Arkansas, smart money will be on Illinois in this one as this will be a near pick 'em with Illinois getting 1.3:1 odds. Very good sign for us.
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#479      
I don’t want me defending my position to be taken as arguing BU is a bad coach, but since you brought up only losing two tournaments games - any team BU has been on the staff for has made the sweet 16 once in his entire career as assistant or head coach - 2010.

I agree with your comparisons to Duke, UNC, Kentucky; especially Kentucky since Calipari not only needs a stable of 5 star future NBA players but he also needs that future NBA all-pro HOF/MVP player. The difference is those teams have post-season highs to balance the losses.

A S16 maybe, and E8 definitely run this year would go a long way in negating my comments.
You should root for some team you like
 
#481      
He’s won more game in league play than anyone else the last 3 years….luck? Scheme? Playing hard? We won 20 games this year with a team that can’t shoot a lick. Luck? Naw we’re one of the unluckiest teams in college basketball. Can you tell us the scheme he employs? How many different offenses we’ve tried/ran? How many defensive adjustments we’ve made? There is some stuff I don’t agree with but I haven’t watched all the film of our practices/ games nor of the opener scouts soooo 🤷🏻‍♂️
This couldn't be more wrong...he's won more games in league play than anyone than else the last 4 years.
 
#482      
This couldn't be more wrong...he's won more games in league play than anyone than else the last 4 years.
The cancellation of the 2020 Tournament robbed a lot of programs big time, some more than us like Kansas and Rutgers … but damn, we’re up there. This whole “second weekend” monkey on our backs might literally have been null and void three whole years ago! That team was clicking.
 
#483      
Playing in the first window is high risk high reward, from a fans perspective. If we win, I get to sit back enjoy basketball for a couple days, and laugh at any rivals that fall (looking at you, Hawkeyes and Hoosiers). If we lose, I won't even feel like watching basketball for the rest of the weekend.

Anyone else have the same feeling?
 
#485      
I am going into this game with 0 expectations. I am going to root for them like crazy, and if they lose - going to enjoy the rest of the month of basketball. I was talking to a friend yesterday and I think what hurt us the most this season was Goode being hurt and missing most of the season, and the whole Skyy ordeal with us not really having a true point guard (RJ getting the yips did not help either). We could really make some noise in this thing, and I hope everything finally comes together and we can finally play up to our capabilities for an entire game VS just a half.
 
#486      
Playing in the first window is high risk high reward, from a fans perspective. If we win, I get to sit back enjoy basketball for a couple days, and laugh at any rivals that fall (looking at you, Hawkeyes and Hoosiers). If we lose, I won't even feel like watching basketball for the rest of the weekend.

Anyone else have the same feeling?
Yep. However, we haven’t played on the Thursday in a long time so I’m up for a change. If we can’t beat Arkansas, I get to abandon any delusion of a surprise run by Thursday afternoon and move on. If we win, as you said, Friday will be so fun just watching games and getting pumped for a HUGE game on Saturday!
 
#487      

Retro62

North Bethesda, Maryland
I am going into this game with 0 expectations. I am going to root for them like crazy, and if they lose - going to enjoy the rest of the month of basketball. I was talking to a friend yesterday and I think what hurt us the most this season was Goode being hurt and missing most of the season, and the whole Skyy ordeal with us not really having a true point guard (RJ getting the yips did not help either). We could really make some noise in this thing, and I hope everything finally comes together and we can finally play up to our capabilities for an entire game VS just a half.
I agree, no real expectations. Despite metrics and stats, we know what we are capable of...both good and bad. I really do feel we can compete with almost anyone when we play the right way, and I hope to see that team show up. I would love to see a healthy dose of Mayer, TSJ, Hawkins, and Dain doing work in the paint. And if we can get some of those Epps driving layups back, that would be fantastic. Let's throw in a couple of driving dunks from RJ as well. I really am looking forward to the game; no expectations is liberating.
 
#488      
I agree, no real expectations. Despite metrics and stats, we know what we are capable of...both good and bad. I really do feel we can compete with almost anyone when we play the right way, and I hope to see that team show up. I would love to see a healthy dose of Mayer, TSJ, Hawkins, and Dain doing work in the paint. And if we can get some of those Epps driving layups back, that would be fantastic. Let's throw in a couple of driving dunks from RJ as well. I really am looking forward to the game; no expectations is liberating.
My confidence that this team “can compete” with any team in the field has honestly never waned, even through frustration and lows. However, the reason I’m bracing myself for any outcome on Thursday (including a double digit loss where we look lost) is the Tournament is often more mental than anything. This team will succeed if they DESPERATELY want to live to see another day. I haven’t seen consistent passion from game to game in a while, but I’ll never give up until it’s over and Thursday is a fantastic time for it to click!
 
#489      
I don’t want me defending my position to be taken as arguing BU is a bad coach, but since you brought up only losing two tournaments games - any team BU has been on the staff for has made the sweet 16 once in his entire career as assistant or head coach - 2010.

I agree with your comparisons to Duke, UNC, Kentucky; especially Kentucky since Calipari not only needs a stable of 5 star future NBA players but he also needs that future NBA all-pro HOF/MVP player. The difference is those teams have post-season highs to balance the losses.

A S16 maybe, and E8 definitely run this year would go a long way in negating my comments.
You're really working hard to find a pattern. When, other than two years ago, has he had a team that you'd expect to go far in the tournament.
 
#490      
Playing in the first window is high risk high reward, from a fans perspective. If we win, I get to sit back enjoy basketball for a couple days, and laugh at any rivals that fall (looking at you, Hawkeyes and Hoosiers). If we lose, I won't even feel like watching basketball for the rest of the weekend.

Anyone else have the same feeling?
I thought there were only games on Thursday and Saturday
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#491      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
The cancellation of the 2020 Tournament robbed a lot of programs big time, some more than us like Kansas and Rutgers … but damn, we’re up there. This whole “second weekend” monkey on our backs might literally have been null and void three whole years ago! That team was clicking.
Not only that, but you could argue our 1 seed team in 2021 plays better in the tourney with some experience under their belt.
 
#492      
I was searching for news update on Black's boot - didnt find anything but did see:
with emphasis on 'appears'
Arkansas doesn't have the size and strength to stop Illinois if the Illini are patient enough to keep working the ball inside. On top of the power and strength, Illinois is really good at securing good positioning for offensive rebounds that result in second and third cracks at lay-ups. Fortunately for the Razorbacks, Illinois does eventually get bored with dropping it down to the big men,
... but then says,
When it comes to guard play, Arkansas has a significant advantage. Overall, Illinois is the least athletic Power Five team Eric Musselman's team will face this year.
if Illinois players get in too big of a hurry, they look like giraffes on roller skates as limbs start heading in all kinds of unnatural direction
The X-factor will be officiating. Anyone who has watched a Big Ten game this year knows that if an SEC officiating crew were to call Thursday's game, all that power in the middle would be fouled five minutes into the second half, and that's after multiple trips to the monitor. Illinois is not a team built for a tightly called contest.

the 'can go inside' comments echos other's analysis, eg, A&M comeback was without a 3
Something I had seen in their box scores - they only go 7 deep: article: there's no one with significant experience or development coming off the bench. If Arkansas has to go more than seven deep for more than a minute or so, it could be lights out for the Hogs
 
#493      

OnlyOrange

Belleville, IL
The cancellation of the 2020 Tournament robbed a lot of programs big time, some more than us like Kansas and Rutgers … but damn, we’re up there. This whole “second weekend” monkey on our backs might literally have been null and void three whole years ago! That team was clicking.
You're absolutely right - the one that jumps out at me was Dayton. Who knows if they make a F4/title run, the one year that they're a top 5 team with Obi Toppin. Such a bummer for them
 
#495      
Not only that, but you could argue our 1 seed team in 2021 plays better in the tourney with some experience under their belt.
Yep. Imagine our 2019-20 team, fresh off beating rival Iowa in an intense game to earn a double-bye in the BTT, earns a #4 or #5 seed. That team had most of the same pieces as 2021 but the veteran leadership/toughness of Felize. I really think they wind up in the Sweet Sixteen. If you had that experience under your belt, it's a lot easier to respond when Loyola starts pushing the lead to 6 and then 8 and then 10. Does the 2005 team come back vs. Arizona if that group didn't have experience making the Sweet Sixteen in 2004, let alone ZERO Tournament games under their belt ever?? I don't think so.
 
#498      
Henson>Self>Underwood>Kruger>Weber >Groce
FIFY, speaking strictly as Illini coaches
I love Henson, but my dad always talks about how people never really appreciated him until he was gone. There was AT LEAST as much of a "he can't win the big games" narrative about him as some have about Underwood all throughout the 1980s ... let's remember 1989 came near the end of our heyday. And who knows what Self does if he stays at Illinois or what Underwood does if he's at Kansas all this time? It's just hard to say.
 
#499      
I was searching for news update on Black's boot - didnt find anything but did see:
with emphasis on 'appears'
Arkansas doesn't have the size and strength to stop Illinois if the Illini are patient enough to keep working the ball inside. On top of the power and strength, Illinois is really good at securing good positioning for offensive rebounds that result in second and third cracks at lay-ups. Fortunately for the Razorbacks, Illinois does eventually get bored with dropping it down to the big men,
... but then says,
When it comes to guard play, Arkansas has a significant advantage. Overall, Illinois is the least athletic Power Five team Eric Musselman's team will face this year.
if Illinois players get in too big of a hurry, they look like giraffes on roller skates as limbs start heading in all kinds of unnatural direction
The X-factor will be officiating. Anyone who has watched a Big Ten game this year knows that if an SEC officiating crew were to call Thursday's game, all that power in the middle would be fouled five minutes into the second half, and that's after multiple trips to the monitor. Illinois is not a team built for a tightly called contest.

the 'can go inside' comments echos other's analysis, eg, A&M comeback was without a 3
Something I had seen in their box scores - they only go 7 deep: article: there's no one with significant experience or development coming off the bench. If Arkansas has to go more than seven deep for more than a minute or so, it could be lights out for the Hogs
I agree with the point about getting bored with going inside but the one about not being athletic is a puzzler. Illinois is an excellent fast break team-Shannon is one of the fastest players I've seen. I suppose he must be referring to Hawkins but as he is a 6'10" 4 or 5 that hardly seems relevant.
 
#500      
Playing in the first window is high risk high reward, from a fans perspective. If we win, I get to sit back enjoy basketball for a couple days, and laugh at any rivals that fall (looking at you, Hawkeyes and Hoosiers). If we lose, I won't even feel like watching basketball for the rest of the weekend.

Anyone else have the same feeling?
I think that we have to reevaluate expectations. Of course we're all totally engaged and want to win.

However, I honestly don't think that you'll feel that way because we're all going into this more bright eyed. If you're going into this with any other thoughts outside of....it is what it is, then you're not doing yourself any favors.

The lack of consistency had me down in the dumps after the Northwestern game, after the Michigan game and after the Purdue 2nd half. Each time, I felt like each amazing moment was a "this is what will get them going" moment. Then Ohio State came, the first half of Purdue came and Penn State in the BTT came.

I'm always completely stoked for the NCAA Tournament and I'll be in Des Moines to see it. I have zero expectations however. We can win by 20, lose by 20 or miss free throws and turn it over late in games to lose a tight one.

I love all of our teams and support them all to the end. That said, this has been one of my least favorite groups(not personally, but from a basketball standpoint) because it just hasn't clicked. If we win, it will be sweet, but if we completely lay another egg....I'll be ready for the season to be over. I'll enjoy the rest of the tournament, like always....then will await the journey that the portal and NIL will take us.

That's just my take with this particular squad. When we lost to Loyola....that was a whole different ordeal.
 
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