College Hoops Coaching Carousel

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#728      

logjam

logjam
logjam
illini0440 said:
Sorry to disappoint
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What Are You Saying Schitts Creek GIF by CBC
/.s
 
#729      

Indy Illini Fan

Indy Illini Fan
Indy Illini Fan
AttentionDeficit said:
I think i'm seeing this different than most outsiders, so i want to offer a another scenario and wait for Indy to shoot me down.

I said in a Pre-Indybomb post
"Brad's sideline demeanor changed dramatically after Skyy left. There were no more back-from-commercial 'Look at Brad give it to them' segments. He yelled some, but he was different. He came out at halftime and sat on the bench. The coach-speak was there, but he usually wants us to believe him, and now he was just reciting the lines. ... I think that, while no coach could ever say it, NO ONE is more excited about this year being behind us than Brad Underwood."
At the time I attributed it to the not having player buy in, but the Indybomb puts it in a different perspective. I think Indy's info makes it plain that there is friction (at the very least) between Underwood and Whitman

Let's talk about the Indybomb first though.

I see Miller as a near fait accompli at this point. Not only did Indy come and spill a lot of beans, he (or she or they) stayed and answered questions and added details for hours! That just doesn't happen! It was awesome. (Thanks Indy!) Was it a psyop? If Indy does carry the imprimatur of the AD, then i think it was a psyop of the best kind. Lets look at what the Indybomb says to some different groups.

1: To Brad Underwood: Don't let the door hit ya.
2: To other ADs interviewing Brad Underwood: Don't overpay, there won't be a bidding war.
3: To Xavier's AD: Get your bag ready. Let's make this quick.
4: To our players: Don't put your name in the portal just yet.
5: To our fans: The jolt you will feel is not the floor dropping out, but the elevator starting to rise.
6: To EVERYONE: Josh Whitman is both the best boss you could hope to have and a stone cold killer.

Now Indy did say that there was still a chance that Underwood could be here next year, but assuming everything he says is true to the best of his knowledge (which i do), we have reached a point where the Athletic Department would like Underwood to leave. I think we can forgive him for looking at other gigs this year because it seems Whitman is encouraging him to. So how did we get here?

Underwood looking at jobs every year? Nah. It isn't endearing, but Josh is out here being the best boss he can be, he doesn't worry about that stuff. Our record / a disappointing tournament finish? Josh isn't sweating that. I think that Underwood's demeanor change marks the timing, and that the reason is... Skyy Clark.

Not Skyy Clark the individual though. Skyy Clark the idea. The highly rated player brought in with a generous NIL investment, with next to Zero ROI. Josh Whitman's basketball coach said 'I want that guy,' spent someone else's money on that guy, got that guy, and chased that guy away in half a season. I am pretty sure that there was mention of unhappy donors at some point (i don't remember if that was from Indy though), and i think the donor who covered Skyy's NIL would have had right to be upset.

We all know Underwood's style isn't for everyone - players and fans alike. That's never been a big deal - kids transfer out, so be it. But with NIL, when you scare off a kid, you risk scaring off a donor as well. If you were a donor who ponied up for Skyy Clark in 2023, how excited are you to be ponying up for his replacement in 2024? Whitman understands this well CANNOT run dry. CAN NOT!

For a coach with Underwood's style, you'd better know exactly who 'your guys' are when you are recruiting, because you can't afford to pay a kid like Skyy and be too aggro for them, but you also need the pool of 'your guys' to include enough high level players to take you to the next level, and to be lucky enough to win the recruiting battle to get 'your guy' to Illinois. This is stacking the deck against him. Most schools can spend their NIL money on the best available player, and end up with a lot more options.

I imagine the Clark situation highlighted this arithmetic for Whitman, Whitman shared those concerns with Brad, and I would wager that conversation went poorly. Very poorly. For the rest of the season Underwood poorly pantomimed positivity while we could see the team chucking their way to oblivion. "I wouldn't want to play us." "This team is built for March."

Underwood is eager to go, Whitman is ready when it happens, and Indy makes sure we all have our popcorn ready when the time comes.

(Note to insiders: if i am way off, feel free to correct me!)
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Game Show Applause GIF by ABC Network
 
#730      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
AttentionDeficit said:
I think i'm seeing this different than most outsiders, so i want to offer a another scenario and wait for Indy to shoot me down.

I said in a Pre-Indybomb post
"Brad's sideline demeanor changed dramatically after Skyy left. There were no more back-from-commercial 'Look at Brad give it to them' segments. He yelled some, but he was different. He came out at halftime and sat on the bench. The coach-speak was there, but he usually wants us to believe him, and now he was just reciting the lines. ... I think that, while no coach could ever say it, NO ONE is more excited about this year being behind us than Brad Underwood."
At the time I attributed it to the not having player buy in, but the Indybomb puts it in a different perspective. I think Indy's info makes it plain that there is friction (at the very least) between Underwood and Whitman

Let's talk about the Indybomb first though.

I see Miller as a near fait accompli at this point. Not only did Indy come and spill a lot of beans, he (or she or they) stayed and answered questions and added details for hours! That just doesn't happen! It was awesome. (Thanks Indy!) Was it a psyop? If Indy does carry the imprimatur of the AD, then i think it was a psyop of the best kind. Lets look at what the Indybomb says to some different groups.

1: To Brad Underwood: Don't let the door hit ya.
2: To other ADs interviewing Brad Underwood: Don't overpay, there won't be a bidding war.
3: To Xavier's AD: Get your bag ready. Let's make this quick.
4: To our players: Don't put your name in the portal just yet.
5: To our fans: The jolt you will feel is not the floor dropping out, but the elevator starting to rise.
6: To EVERYONE: Josh Whitman is both the best boss you could hope to have and a stone cold killer.

Now Indy did say that there was still a chance that Underwood could be here next year, but assuming everything he says is true to the best of his knowledge (which i do), we have reached a point where the Athletic Department would like Underwood to leave. I think we can forgive him for looking at other gigs this year because it seems Whitman is encouraging him to. So how did we get here?

Underwood looking at jobs every year? Nah. It isn't endearing, but Josh is out here being the best boss he can be, he doesn't worry about that stuff. Our record / a disappointing tournament finish? Josh isn't sweating that. I think that Underwood's demeanor change marks the timing, and that the reason is... Skyy Clark.

Not Skyy Clark the individual though. Skyy Clark the idea. The highly rated player brought in with a generous NIL investment, with next to Zero ROI. Josh Whitman's basketball coach said 'I want that guy,' spent someone else's money on that guy, got that guy, and chased that guy away in half a season. I am pretty sure that there was mention of unhappy donors at some point (i don't remember if that was from Indy though), and i think the donor who covered Skyy's NIL would have had right to be upset.

We all know Underwood's style isn't for everyone - players and fans alike. That's never been a big deal - kids transfer out, so be it. But with NIL, when you scare off a kid, you risk scaring off a donor as well. If you were a donor who ponied up for Skyy Clark in 2023, how excited are you to be ponying up for his replacement in 2024? Whitman understands this well CANNOT run dry. CAN NOT!

For a coach with Underwood's style, you'd better know exactly who 'your guys' are when you are recruiting, because you can't afford to pay a kid like Skyy and be too aggro for them, but you also need the pool of 'your guys' to include enough high level players to take you to the next level, and to be lucky enough to win the recruiting battle to get 'your guy' to Illinois. This is stacking the deck against him. Most schools can spend their NIL money on the best available player, and end up with a lot more options.

I imagine the Clark situation highlighted this arithmetic for Whitman, Whitman shared those concerns with Brad, and I would wager that conversation went poorly. Very poorly. For the rest of the season Underwood poorly pantomimed positivity while we could see the team chucking their way to oblivion. "I wouldn't want to play us." "This team is built for March."

Underwood is eager to go, Whitman is ready when it happens, and Indy makes sure we all have our popcorn ready when the time comes.

(Note to insiders: if i am way off, feel free to correct me!)
Click to expand...
This is a layer deeper than I had really considered, but it makes a whole hell of a lot of sense. It's clear donors are the lifeblood of revenue sports now even moreso than they have been in the past, and alienating donors would be a death knell.

I guess the operative question, then, is how restless the donor class are. That has always dictated how hot a coach's seat gets, but now you have added incentives for donor anger to outpace fan anger because of the transfer ecosystem.

Very interesting rabbit hole here.
 
#734      

fuggles

F
fuggles
I'm not buying this narrative that Josh is worried the well will dry up because some donor is pissed that his NIL guy quit the team or is unhappy with the coach. Donors get pissed and say they won't donate anymore all the time. The well is not dry. There are plenty of rich donors who want Illinois to succeed and are willing to pay to help.
 
#737      

illinistephen

I
illinistephen
sacraig said:
This is a layer deeper than I had really considered, but it makes a whole hell of a lot of sense. It's clear donors are the lifeblood of revenue sports now even moreso than they have been in the past, and alienating donors would be a death knell.

I guess the operative question, then, is how restless the donor class are. That has always dictated how hot a coach's seat gets, but now you have added incentives for donor anger to outpace fan anger because of the transfer ecosystem.

Very interesting rabbit hole here.
Click to expand...
Years ago, I remember reading an article about SEC football coaches and how they knew their time was up at the school when the recruiting dried up because the bag-men "donors" stopped paying the players. If the donor class wants you gone, you are really in trouble.
 
#740      

IlliniCub 16

IlliniCub 16
IlliniCub 16
LvilleILL said:
Barring something unexpected happening, Brad Underwood will be the coach at Illinois next year
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Your updates and insight are always appreciated Lville, but at this point there is a lot of grey area between what would be considered "expected" or "unexpected" in this current coaching carousel.
Especially when comparing people who read this board and the average Illini fan, blissfully unaware of the behind the scenes scenarios being laid out here.

For example, would Texas hiring Rodney Terry full time be considered expected or unexpected? To us it might be unexpected, but to the average college hoops fan it probably makes a lot of sense. Obviously Texas is the major domino waiting to fall.

Anything involving Kansas and Self or Kentucky and Calipari would certainly fall under unexpected by anyone though.
 
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#742      

PizzaHutGM

P
PizzaHutGM
So are the players who are deciding whether or not to transfer waiting on if Brad stays or goes? Would there be more movement with Brad staying?
 
#746      

jmwillini

J
Tolono, IL
jmwillini
So...

Possible twists in As the Carousel Turns

Terry is interviewing for other jobs. Already told he won't be hired and Texas opens up.
KSU keeps winning and Tang strikes while the iron is hot.
Cal gets the Texas job and opens up UK.
Self retires and opens up KU.
Sampson moves up to larger conference or goes to work for Verizon.
Satan does something even Auburn can't stomach.
Arkansas or Alabama open up if Musselman or Oates move on.
Illini0440 or Tyler move on to wherever Brad ends up.
Previous poster's meteor finally hits and opens up an unexpected job
Or finally, this has been Much Ado About Nothing
 
#747      

jezzadownunder

J
jezzadownunder
jmwillini said:
So...

Possible twists in As the Carousel Turns

Terry is interviewing for other jobs. Already told he won't be hired and Texas opens up.
KSU keeps winning and Tang strikes while the iron is hot.
Cal gets the Texas job and opens up UK.
Self retires and opens up KU.
Sampson moves up to larger conference or goes to work for Verizon.
Satan does something even Auburn can't stomach.
Arkansas or Alabama open up if Musselman or Oates move on.
Illini0440 or Tyler move on to wherever Brad ends up.
Previous poster's meteor finally hits and opens up an unexpected job
Or finally, this has been Much Ado About Nothing
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Certainly doesn’t have the feeling like much ado about nothing. As others posted earlier, BUs demeanor completely changed half way through and the fire and intensity we usually see had subdued in my opinion. I also believe BU will move on this offseason.
 
#749      

Oldskoolkoach

O
Oldskoolkoach
jezzadownunder said:
Certainly doesn’t have the feeling like much ado about nothing. As others posted earlier, BUs demeanor completely changed half way through and the fire and intensity we usually see had subdued in my opinion. I also believe BU will move on this offseason.
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It most certainly did. Very interesting year to watch the body language of coaches, especially BU. He was definitely not the same on the sidelines after the 1st MM post-game comment game. At that point in time, it became a player led team instead of a coach led team. The assistant coaches didn't hardly make a move outside of Geoff occasionally. I don't recall CF or TA up and off the bench, or having in game player discussions more than a handful of times. Did it happen? I'm sure it did, but nothing like past years.
 
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