Toledo is a talented well coached team. Plus it's week 1(if this game was week 4 or 5 I would take ILL -9.5)Anxiety meter
Pregame: Illinois vs Toledo, Saturday, September 2nd, 6:30pm CT, BTN
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I said earlier in the thread and I will say it again, Illinois 38-10.
Doesn't mean they won't cover.....but no not the easiest at all
Go ahead and post that ticket before the game starts
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
There's the brother vs. brother storyline which will gas players up a little bit and Toledo will have a chip on their shoulder. I'd bet they make it close at first and we pull away in the second half.Anxiety meter
I think it's going to be a good old fashioned Bret Bielema beat down.
Toledo can't come close to competing in the trenches. Some rushing TD's, a TE TD, one of the tall wr's catches a fade route TD, williams returns a punt, all-american dl pad their stats. Badda Bing Badda Boom...We are all that much richer
Toledo can't come close to competing in the trenches. Some rushing TD's, a TE TD, one of the tall wr's catches a fade route TD, williams returns a punt, all-american dl pad their stats. Badda Bing Badda Boom...We are all that much richer
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
You are definitely missing something. Did you read the last 10-15 pages of this thread? Far from the easiest money of the weekend. Toledo happens to be the reigning MAC champs, though it is always hard to judge how a team will perform year over year (Illini included).
From a betting standpoint, I would feel much more confident at -6.5. As I stated earlier, I expect Illini to win and cover the spread, but that is purely from a fan viewpoint (I would never risk actual money and definitely not my non-existent beach house). As a general rule: Week 0 and 1 are always the most difficult to project, which is why there are very few bets where I would feel there is easy money. There are so many unknowns with virtually every team and the first game tends to be sloppy.
This is going to be a close game going into the 4th quarter. I hope I am wrong and the Illini have a huge lead allowing 2nd string reps, but I don't expect that to be the case.
Sure. IlliniLifer doesn't really own a beach house, but will definitely be wagering some amount in the next few days.Ill probably make it a weekly thing. I'm expecting a great, fun-filled season.
Is it ok to talk betting here? It's legal were I live.
Very insightful.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
yea
with so many unknowns , there is RARELY easy money on opening weekend . that line hasn’t moved much if at all , so there is as much money betting against us covering as there is thinking we do
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
I mentioned the game in an earlier comment, but who wouldn't have taken the line, the over, etc. etc. when Appy State played at scUM in 2007?
Strange things happen on opening weekend. I have every confidence that Illinois can cover, but we're possibly 2 bad calls or a signficant injury from an outright loss, let alone not covering.
Strange things happen on opening weekend. I have every confidence that Illinois can cover, but we're possibly 2 bad calls or a signficant injury from an outright loss, let alone not covering.
the national
- the Front Range
Ah yes, was dubbed as the toast of Champaign…. Why did Kyle Hudson have to fumble that ball? He was so sure-handed.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I remember being at the game, and every time the ball was punted we would have a collective holding of breaths. Somehow, I still think we hold our breaths every time the ball is punted to us. We as fans have been burned by muffed punts so often in the last couple decades (or at least at very inopportune times).
Toledo is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 season openers.
Toledo is a good team with a lot of quality returning. As well, we have a big question mark when it comes to our qb play and our qb-center exchange, communication, and recognition. While early data is questionable, the majority of models suggest a Toledo cover and the Under. Personally, I'd stay away from betting the line on this one, though I would lean Toledo if I did. Betting the Under on the other hand seems like good value to me. Our defense would need to be significantly worse and our offense significantly better than expected for the over to happen.
If Illinois does win by double digits it will likely be due to an elite defense and some Toledo special teams blunders, along with being able to run the ball effectively, but that's not a given. Most importantly though we need to avoid going down early. As it'll be a dogfight to get back in and win it without decent qb play.
Legal to talk sports wagering whether it is legal where you live or not. Little surprised there isn't a wagering topic started on the Sports Talk area.
Just make sure if wagering over/under this season you throw in the running clock on 1st downs during college football games....except for last 2 minutes of 2nd and 4th quarter
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This needs context, because it makes it seem like Toledo does not perform to expectations in first week.
2022: Toledo (-47) - W 37-0 over Long Island (tough to cover that many points no matter who you are playing)
2021: Toledo (-39.5) - W 49-10 over Norfolk St (see above) -> did not cover by .5 points
2020: Toledo (-24) - W 38-3 over Bowling Green
2019: Toledo (+11.5) - L 38-24 @ Kentucky -> This is the closest equivalent game to Saturday
2018: Toledo (Could not find a line) - W 66-3 over VMI -> though likely would have been a cover
Based on these 5 openers, by my count, Toledo is likely 2-3 against the spread (assuming 2018 was a cover if there was a line). The only game that is truly comparable is 2019 vs Kentucky where they barely lost to the spread. Three of the other four games are against nominal competition. Two of the three lack of covers were because of very large spreads. It is very hard to cover 40 points no matter who you are playing, especially if you decide to play your backups for a quarter or half.
If we are being honest, the above makes it appear that Toledo will be very competitive to the +9.5 line.
I was watching a YouTube channel that was previewing the match up. They said that Toledo was 1-4 ATS in their last 5 season openers. I guess I should have fact checked them before I posted.
On a positive note- one of the analysts said he has us winning by 14 points.
I personally don't bet, but definitely wouldn't bet on the first game of the season. There are just too many unknowns.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
There is a Michigan channel on YouTube that has highlights of this game. While the channel obviously has a bias toward Michigan, the highlights are "neutral" and actually show the good and the bad from both sides. When we score our first touchdown, Memorial Stadium is LOUD. There is actually a comment on the video that I remember (paraphrasing here) that said, "I have never heard 57k people be so loud."
I would agree that Memorial has not even gotten close to that since that game ... but it shows that the acoustics of our stadium allow for a VERY loud crowd with only 57k in attendance ... so we better be rockin' vs. PSU!!
I was there in the horseshoe with my $77 season tickets (in honor of Red Grange), and it was absolutely nuts after the first TD. The only time I have heard the stadium louder was against Michigan in 2000 (I'm also only in my mid-30s, so my Illini football life has been full of a lot of pain).
cuillini
- San Bernardino, Ca.
I'm thinking we'll a close first half, but the Illini prevail, 27-13.
And as I have mentioned to Toledo fans on our board numerous times. Candle gets a knock for his lack of P5 wins. That Kentucky game was knotted 14-14 at half, and the first drive of the 2nd half Toledos QB was knocked out. Toledo probably didn't muster more than 40 yards then out. Toledo would likely see a similar fate if Finn missed any snaps due to injury Saturday night. The backup has at least played some though, and played well vs. EMU and BGSU (with broken left hand).
I am torn a little bit......
Illinois will rely on good D, ground the ball and wear the D down whether it is for 1 or 7 yards a gain and tends to keep the playbook more basic to break in the season
Altmyer has a real nice deep ball and think they might try to take some shots starting week 1. Maybe I am overhyped but this might be the most depth at WR I remember having.......
Illinois will rely on good D, ground the ball and wear the D down whether it is for 1 or 7 yards a gain and tends to keep the playbook more basic to break in the season
Altmyer has a real nice deep ball and think they might try to take some shots starting week 1. Maybe I am overhyped but this might be the most depth at WR I remember having.......
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