Pregame: Illinois vs Toledo, Saturday, September 2nd, 6:30pm CT, BTN

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#426      
You're not wrong at all. A loss in this one in front of our home crowd will likely lead to fan response similar to 2002 where you're in a deep hole before you begin the season. Plus this in theory is the easiest of our first 3 games, so it'd be easy to see us at 1-2 or even 0-3 and by that point, the casual Illini fan (and even some of us hardened Illini fans) will say, yep, just another typical Illini season of failure and give up. So, yeah, winning this one is pretty huge.
Yep, exactly. It's easy for us to envision the Illini fan base as a whole as being represented by this board ... but we are the absolute diehards. What we represent is the 37,832 who bought tickets to see us play Wyoming last year because they believed in Bielema and were excited for the future. The additional 18,260 who helped us get a good crowd for the MSU game are fundamentally different types of fans ... and the remaining margin that gets our stadium sold out (much less that were getting us up above 70k pre-renovation) are even more pessimistic in general. We HAVE to prove that we are here to stay, and whether or not it is fair or how many logical reasons we can come up with why it "wasn't that big of a deal," a loss to Toledo at home to start the season SHATTERS that image. Period.

In fact, using those simplified numbers above, I would say group one (the diehards) is clearly on board and has apparently grown about 7k since last year! Group 2 (the folks who showed up for the MSU game and jumped ship when we lost) at the VERY least need to see us beat Toledo to show up for the hyped PSU game. To even tap into Group 3 at all, we need to start 2-0, and even that might not be enough (i.e., we might have to start 3-0 to pull that big of crowds the rest of the year). We bleed orange and blue, but it's totally understandable why casual Illini football fans view it as exhausting to invest into our program ... they need proof, and I am cautiously optimistic we can give it to them this year!
 
#427      
Much easier said than done but the key for Illinois will be to keep Finn in the pocket and not let him move the chains with his feet. You can gameplan for mobile QBs at any level but it will be the D's job to execute and make sure he doesn't take off on breakdown plays/QB draw. If we can keep Finn in the pocket and double on WR Newton effectively than Illinois can control this game.....TBD


Toledo 9-5 last season, 8-4 when Finn played (all 4 losses on the road)
Finn 23 passing TD 12 INT plus 9 Rushing TDs


In 8 wins 19 passing TD 2 INT 5 Rushing TDs

In 4 losses 4 passing TD 10 INT 4 Rushing TDs
 
#428      
I agree, if we want PSU to be the big moment it can be, we need to beat Toledo. It's a must win for fan enthusiasm. Kansas a lot less so though losing in a blowout wouldn't be great. 1-1 going into the PSU game would still garner a lot of hype, 2-0 even more. 0-2 and it's going to seem like same old Illinois to a lot of fans, rightly or wrongly. It would also help if PSU beats West Virginia too. A top five PSU coming to town against a buzzed about Illinois on Big Noon would be one of the bigger moments this program has had in a long time.
Yeah, if you look back at our last 20 seasons, there are really only a few contenders that would be close to the atmosphere for 2-0 Illinois vs. 2-0 (and likely top 5) Penn State for Big Noon Kickoff. Even the 2016 sellout vs. North Carolina had relatively low stakes (nobody thought we'd be THAT good that year), and even the home game vs. MSU last year where the stakes were high had a good-but-not-elite crowd due to a lag in fans buying back in. Really, I can only think of FIVE home games in my lifetime as a fan (since the 2002 season is what I really remember) that match the potential hype of this PSU game:

2011: Ohio State at #16 Illinois. We were 6-0, ranked and drew a crowd over 55k (pretty bad when you think about it, but Zook had done decently well at wearing down our fans' enthusiasm by this point, plus OSU wasn't great that year). Of course we lost 17-7 on national TV and went on to become the first FBS team ever to start 6-0 and finish 0-6. o_O

2009: #13 Penn State at Illinois. After starting 1-2 with losses to Mizzou in St. Louis and at Ohio State, I feel this was sort of the "last stand" of the post-Rose Bowl hype truly meaning we were "back" in any real sense. The 2009 team had so much hype and was disappointing so far, but we could all rationalize getting punched in the mouth by Mizzou and losing in Columbus ... but then we proceeded to lose 35-17 to Penn State at home in front of a sold out crowd of 62,870. After that, our losing streak would climb to 5, and we would finish the year 3-9, with Zook never really recovering.

2008: Minnesota at Illinois. By this point, we were still 3-2 and just came off of demolishing Michigan in the Big House. Our two losses were at #12 Penn State (whiteout game) and vs. #6 Missouri in St. Louis ... I think we could all forgive both of those. However, we proceeded to lose 27-20 to Minnesota in front of a sold out crowd, and I think it's when we all knew this season at the very least wouldn't be too special. Our only two wins the rest of the year were Indiana at home and (FINALLY) squeaking out a 3-point win vs. Iowa.

2007: #24 Michigan at Illinois. There were a lot of big home games in 2007, but this is the one that was the most hyped by far. We were still VERY unproven by the PSU game, and even the game hosting #5 Wisconsin the following week had a lot of fans in a "wait and see" mode, IIRC. This Michigan home game was coming off of the heels of a frustrating loss at Iowa, but we were still 5-2 (3-1) with an EXCELLENT opportunity for a statement win. Night game in Champaign on ABC, and I remember the hype being insane ... we all know what happened. :( Of course, the win at #1 Ohio State helped save this season as something special, but at the time this felt like a crushing loss.

2002: #14 Michigan at Illinois. We had such a weirdly rocky start in 2002 after the Sugar Bowl season, and this was such a must win ... I was SO young, and I still remember this feeling like a game where if you lost, we were officially "not good" that year, lol. We got stomped, and despite winning 4 of our last 6 that year, the early hole we dug (as referenced in a previous post) just killed the momentum for that season.

While I could have included the 2007 Wisconsin game, you will notice that Illinois lost EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE. We have spent 2+ decades reinforcing to our fans that if they buy back in, they will be crushed - that if things appear to be on the cusp of really changing, prepare for the dagger. These first three games of 2023 provide us with such a golden opportunity to FINALLY change that narrative ... I pray we do!
 
#429      

Krombopulos_Michael

Aurora, Illinois (that’s a suburb of Chicago)
Toledo is easier for different reasons. Toledo is tougher for different reasons. You'll have more trouble scoring on UT than Kansas. Kansas will score easier and quicker than Toledo could imagine. At least based on preseason projecting.
You might be right but:
Listen Ten Hag GIF by Manchester United
 
#430      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
(I don't what most of this stuff means right now)

I'm skeptical of whatever model produced those figures. Seems to me that none of them should be quoted to any degree finer than the nearest whole number, if not the nearest ten. Two decimal points makes me lol.

Regarding the game Saturday, we really don't know what we have at QB, the backfield, and the line until they hit the field. Feel pretty good about the wideouts but otherwise a lot of unknowns regarding individual capacity, unit cohesion, and ability to move the ball. Feel great about the D-line and LBs, less confident about the secondary. Perhaps those who pay closer attention and understand the game better have a more positive view.

For me, it's not quite the Forrest Gump box of chocolates, but nor is it a fully-baked masterpiece. I'll show up to watch and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I feel best about the guy running the show and BB's capacity to have these guys ready to hit hard. We definitely have the right man at the helm.
 
#432      
Yeah, if you look back at our last 20 seasons, there are really only a few contenders that would be close to the atmosphere for 2-0 Illinois vs. 2-0 (and likely top 5) Penn State for Big Noon Kickoff. Even the 2016 sellout vs. North Carolina had relatively low stakes (nobody thought we'd be THAT good that year), and even the home game vs. MSU last year where the stakes were high had a good-but-not-elite crowd due to a lag in fans buying back in. Really, I can only think of FIVE home games in my lifetime as a fan (since the 2002 season is what I really remember) that match the potential hype of this PSU game:

2011: Ohio State at #16 Illinois. We were 6-0, ranked and drew a crowd over 55k (pretty bad when you think about it, but Zook had done decently well at wearing down our fans' enthusiasm by this point, plus OSU wasn't great that year). Of course we lost 17-7 on national TV and went on to become the first FBS team ever to start 6-0 and finish 0-6. o_O

2009: #13 Penn State at Illinois. After starting 1-2 with losses to Mizzou in St. Louis and at Ohio State, I feel this was sort of the "last stand" of the post-Rose Bowl hype truly meaning we were "back" in any real sense. The 2009 team had so much hype and was disappointing so far, but we could all rationalize getting punched in the mouth by Mizzou and losing in Columbus ... but then we proceeded to lose 35-17 to Penn State at home in front of a sold out crowd of 62,870. After that, our losing streak would climb to 5, and we would finish the year 3-9, with Zook never really recovering.

2008: Minnesota at Illinois. By this point, we were still 3-2 and just came off of demolishing Michigan in the Big House. Our two losses were at #12 Penn State (whiteout game) and vs. #6 Missouri in St. Louis ... I think we could all forgive both of those. However, we proceeded to lose 27-20 to Minnesota in front of a sold out crowd, and I think it's when we all knew this season at the very least wouldn't be too special. Our only two wins the rest of the year were Indiana at home and (FINALLY) squeaking out a 3-point win vs. Iowa.

2007: #24 Michigan at Illinois. There were a lot of big home games in 2007, but this is the one that was the most hyped by far. We were still VERY unproven by the PSU game, and even the game hosting #5 Wisconsin the following week had a lot of fans in a "wait and see" mode, IIRC. This Michigan home game was coming off of the heels of a frustrating loss at Iowa, but we were still 5-2 (3-1) with an EXCELLENT opportunity for a statement win. Night game in Champaign on ABC, and I remember the hype being insane ... we all know what happened. :( Of course, the win at #1 Ohio State helped save this season as something special, but at the time this felt like a crushing loss.

2002: #14 Michigan at Illinois. We had such a weirdly rocky start in 2002 after the Sugar Bowl season, and this was such a must win ... I was SO young, and I still remember this feeling like a game where if you lost, we were officially "not good" that year, lol. We got stomped, and despite winning 4 of our last 6 that year, the early hole we dug (as referenced in a previous post) just killed the momentum for that season.

While I could have included the 2007 Wisconsin game, you will notice that Illinois lost EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE. We have spent 2+ decades reinforcing to our fans that if they buy back in, they will be crushed - that if things appear to be on the cusp of really changing, prepare for the dagger. These first three games of 2023 provide us with such a golden opportunity to FINALLY change that narrative ... I pray we do!
Yeah 2011 ASU had a lot of hype on campus, less so from maybe the fans driving down, but that was a #22 ASU. This would be closer to the 1990 Colorado game. What's a little funny, or maybe more sad, when it comes to pure stakes of winning the division and consequently maybe the conference, it would be hard to top last years Purdue game which was for the West title. But we lost to MSU the week before and the hype died down a ton.
 
#433      

altgeld88

Arlington, Virginia
Yeah 2011 ASU had a lot of hype on campus, less so from maybe the fans driving down, but that was a #22 ASU. This would be closer to the 1990 Colorado game. What's a little funny, or maybe more sad, when it comes to pure stakes of winning the division and consequently maybe the conference, it would be hard to top last years Purdue game which was for the West title. But we lost to MSU the week before and the hype died down a ton.
As long as it's not the 1989 Colorado game. :eek: Though if we proceed to win every game but one the rest of the way as we did that season, I won't complain.
 
#435      
Yeah 2011 ASU had a lot of hype on campus, less so from maybe the fans driving down, but that was a #22 ASU. This would be closer to the 1990 Colorado game. What's a little funny, or maybe more sad, when it comes to pure stakes of winning the division and consequently maybe the conference, it would be hard to top last years Purdue game which was for the West title. But we lost to MSU the week before and the hype died down a ton.
I remember being really hyped for the 2011 ASU game myself, but yeah ... it was on BTN, and I think a lot of fans had already soured on Zook for good by this point. I mean, a couple games later we had a 6-0 record for Ohio State coming to town, and we sold fewer tickets than we did for the MSU game last year! I think that really spoke to fans struggling to buy into the hype for a Zook team as late as 2011. :(

As for the Purdue game last year, I was there ... the feeling of watching it slip away in the freezing cold was so awful, haha. I do wonder how good the attendance would have been for it if we beat MSU, though. We drew our biggest crowd in years for the MSU game (over 56k), and attendance for the Purdue game the following week was down over 10k fans! Say what you want about Dad's Day or weather, but that REALLY speaks to Illini fans hopping back off the bandwagon if you ask me.
 
#436      
Much easier said than done but the key for Illinois will be to keep Finn in the pocket and not let him move the chains with his feet. You can gameplan for mobile QBs at any level but it will be the D's job to execute and make sure he doesn't take off on breakdown plays/QB draw. If we can keep Finn in the pocket and double on WR Newton effectively than Illinois can control this game.....TBD


Toledo 9-5 last season, 8-4 when Finn played (all 4 losses on the road)
Finn 23 passing TD 12 INT plus 9 Rushing TDs


In 8 wins 19 passing TD 2 INT 5 Rushing TDs

In 4 losses 4 passing TD 10 INT 4 Rushing TDs
I don't think those stats are exactly correct.

He played 2 quarters vs. SDSU.
Was pulled in the 4th vs. Ohio State (this counts as the blowout made coaches get him outta there.)
He missed two drives vs. NIU (Gleason came in and led UT right down the field for a TD).
He missed all of the EMU game which Toledo won on backup Gleason.
Finn missed all of BGSU.
He played one drive vs. Wmu in a meaningless game as the MAC West was wrapped up, so he sat after the first drive.


He basically missed 3 full games. Missed a legit half of another. Toledo was 1-2 without him at all. And lost the half game, where he led a comeback but the D didn't hold as time ran out.
I'd say Toledo was 8-2 with a healthy QB1.
 
#437      
I'd be curious on an updated ticket tracker in the next couple days. The horseshoe seemed to be approaching under a few hundred seats not sold. 48k might look promising? Getting the most fans to a home opener in well over a decade would be awesome!
I'll shoot to get an official update out there tomorrow evening. Based on what I'm seeing out there today, 48,000+ should be within reach.
 
#438      

Dan

Admin
#439      
I don't think those stats are exactly correct.

He played 2 quarters vs. SDSU.
Was pulled in the 4th vs. Ohio State (this counts as the blowout made coaches get him outta there.)
He missed two drives vs. NIU (Gleason came in and led UT right down the field for a TD).
He missed all of the EMU game which Toledo won on backup Gleason.
Finn missed all of BGSU.
He played one drive vs. Wmu in a meaningless game as the MAC West was wrapped up, so he sat after the first drive.


He basically missed 3 full games. Missed a legit half of another. Toledo was 1-2 without him at all. And lost the half game, where he led a comeback but the D didn't hold as time ran out.
I'd say Toledo was 8-2 with a healthy QB1.
Actually the stats are correct lol

As I mentioned Toledo went 8-4 in the games he played in and also the stats that I listed from those games. I am aware he didn't play in 2 games so there are no stats nor win/loss for him thrown into those numbers.

He actually threw 2 INTs in the WMU game so wasn't one drive

Main point from the stats I made is keeping him in the pocket and making him beat you with his arm. I would much rather see Finn trying to pass for 250 yards than passing for 150 yards and rushing for 75 yards.
 
#440      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
I'm skeptical of whatever model produced those figures. Seems to me that none of them should be quoted to any degree finer than the nearest whole number, if not the nearest ten. Two decimal points makes me lol.

Regarding the game Saturday, we really don't know what we have at QB, the backfield, and the line until they hit the field. Feel pretty good about the wideouts but otherwise a lot of unknowns regarding individual capacity, unit cohesion, and ability to move the ball. Feel great about the D-line and LBs, less confident about the secondary. Perhaps those who pay closer attention and understand the game better have a more positive view.

For me, it's not quite the Forrest Gump box of chocolates, but nor is it a fully-baked masterpiece. I'll show up to watch and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I feel best about the guy running the show and BB's capacity to have these guys ready to hit hard. We definitely have the right man at the helm.
That sentence sounds a lot like a first game of the season to me..........No one knows what we have till we start playing some games........I think we have a good chance to go bowling this season especially with our defense and it seems to me we have some future NFL players on the D again this year........

my main concern is how our QB1 performs and if we have enough RB's to replace what CB did for us last year........BB seems happy with the structure of the roster this season , so I say " Let's git it on ".............Only after playing this season opener will I be able to form an opinion of what our ceiling is at the basic start of the season ....................

I guess I will offer my hopeful prediction of ..................................

Fighting Illini 31
mud hens 14

LETS GO ILLINI !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
#443      

turnaround3

1st & Daniel
2007: #24 Michigan at Illinois. There were a lot of big home games in 2007, but this is the one that was the most hyped by far. We were still VERY unproven by the PSU game, and even the game hosting #5 Wisconsin the following week had a lot of fans in a "wait and see" mode, IIRC. This Michigan home game was coming off of the heels of a frustrating loss at Iowa, but we were still 5-2 (3-1) with an EXCELLENT opportunity for a statement win. Night game in Champaign on ABC, and I remember the hype being insane ... we all know what happened. :( Of course, the win at #1 Ohio State helped save this season as something special, but at the time this felt like a crushing loss.

This was my freshmen year and man there was just not a ticket to be found. I remember hearing the flyover from six pack. To me there just hasn't been that kind of buzz leading up to a game at Memorial in the sixteen years since (including the OSU game four years later). But I'm in agreement that 2-0 Illini vs 2-0 PSU could be that game.

 
#444      
This was my freshmen year and man there was just not a ticket to be found. I remember hearing the flyover from six pack. To me there just hasn't been that kind of buzz leading up to a game at Memorial in the sixteen years since (including the OSU game four years later). But I'm in agreement that 2-0 Illini vs 2-0 PSU could be that game.

What was up with Michigan entering the field behind our sideline at the 1:15 mark?
 
#447      
Am I missing something or is the Illinois -9.5 line the easiest money of the weekend?

I expect us to dominate at the point of attack & Toledo apparently has horrible special teams.

Is anyone here going to talk me out of betting the beach house?
 
#450      
Am I missing something or is the Illinois -9.5 line the easiest money of the weekend?

I expect us to dominate at the point of attack & Toledo apparently has horrible special teams.

Is anyone here going to talk me out of betting the beach house?
The three unknowns are the Illinois Passing game, the Toledo Dline and the Illinois secondary. If 2 out of 3 of those don't go Illinois way do they cover still?

I'd play -9.5 if you're that confident in the offense.
 
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