Illini Basketball 2023-2024

[Calvin]

I'll answer my own question.

Less (but not by much)

I didn't buy into the Ty as PG narrative, but I also didn't see PG by committee working this well (and it has its issues). I pegged Illini for top-25, outside the top 10. I've always been high on TSJ, not just as a leader, but I really like his game. I could go on and on about how he asserts himself in transition, jumps the passing lanes, hits the occasional deep 3 (and legitimately spreads the floor), and hits his frickin FTs. Great athlete --already has what I expect to be the best block of the year. Think we have many other solid pieces. But is the rest of roster, especially at the guard spots, next level/difference makers? Not so sure, especially when I'm watching the best teams.

I think this team will do better than last year's, but I'm expecting Purdue to win the conference and it won't be close. I like this group --easy team to root for. Just not seeing a top 4 seed yet based on my personal eye test. Next couple weeks are going to change minds one way or the other. Hopefully this post doesn't age well.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

When the game is on the line the ball will be going to this guy:
View attachment 29069
It doesn't matter who else we might have brought in. We are going as far as this guy takes us.

While I agree and definitely support this, what made MJ the GOAT was he’d sometimes pass it when they collapsed on him. I want Shannon with the ball whenever we need points late, but I hope he at least has in the back of his mind that Goode might just be wide open for a three if defenders are on all sides!

 

[Tyrone HoggLegg]

Question:

This far into the season, if you had to pick one, you are (more/less) confident we make the S16?

Way Less. Team is reminding me of last years, but then again we are not that deep into the season. Still hoping.

 

[BBIQ]

Smart move for all parties. BU can't play 11 guys once the Big10 season rolls around.

Harris likely stays in the program. He practices against a Top 25 team for a year, and he makes us better in the future. And perhaps he perfects his outside shot during the year off.

Thanks for the update. I was worried this meant he was leaving.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

While I agree and definitely support this, what made MJ the GOAT was he’d sometimes pass it when they collapsed on him. I want Shannon with the ball whenever we need points late, but I hope he at least has in the back of his mind that Goode might just be wide open for a three if defenders are on all sides!

For sure... If a nobody like me can figure out Shannon will have the ball, then Tom Izzo, et al, have gotten the memo. He's good enough to get the job done on his own, but you can't have tunnel vision either. If all the lanes collapse, someone is open.

 

[Illini IndyCar Fan]

For those who don’t have a Peacock subscription yet and want to be able to watch the OSU/Michigan/Purdue games later this season, it’s on sale right now: $19.99 for an annual subscription with promo code YEARLONG or BIGDEAL.

 

[dbeverly26]

And I know some people on here are fond of saying “too much luck involved,” “tourney is a crap shoot,” we’ve been facing teams that were under seeded,” etc.. You know who says things like that? Fans of teams not going far in tourney. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a fan of a team making E8 saying we got lucky and finally beat the crap shoot because we didn’t face any under seeded teams.

The world is full of people who mistake their good fortune for having 'earned' something. It can be true that you both did everything in your power to succeed but that you also got some good luck along the way.

We're talking about a single elimination tournament full of 50-50 games. Do you seriously believe that just because the teams who won the coin flip don't say 'we got lucky' that there's no luck involved? It pisses some people off for some reason but luck is always a massive factor in March, or in any other game where the teams are evenly matched. The real key to getting to the second weekend is avoiding those even matchups as much as you can by getting high seeds and a good draw.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

The world is full of people who mistake their good fortune for having 'earned' something. It can be true that you both did everything in your power to succeed but that you also got some good luck along the way.

We're talking about a single elimination tournament full of 50-50 games. Do you seriously believe that just because the teams who won the coin flip don't say 'we got lucky' that there's no luck involved? It pisses some people off for some reason but luck is always a massive factor in March, or in any other game where the teams are evenly matched. The real key to getting to the second weekend is avoiding those even matchups as much as you can by getting high seeds and a good draw.

Sure there is some luck involved within each game, but good teams overcome bad luck. You play who is put in front of you. One year of not being able to overcome bad luck to get to second week I can buy. Multiple years of “it” and it’s just a poor excuse. In all the reminiscing on here about the great teams we’ve had, can’t remember many posts about how lucky those teams were. But plenty of mention of luck when we go out earlier than expected. Hmmmm

 

[21ChampaignSt]

We're talking about a single elimination tournament full of 50-50 games. Do you seriously believe that just because the teams who won the coin flip don't say 'we got lucky' that there's no luck involved? It pisses some people off for some reason but luck is always a massive factor in March, or in any other game where the teams are evenly matched. The real key to getting to the second weekend is avoiding those even matchups as much as you can by getting high seeds and a good draw.

This is why I'll never be able to get on the "tournament is luck" wagon. If luck were such a huge factor, you'd expect championships to be more evenly dispersed across seeds. But they aren't.

The higher the seed, the higher the chance is of going further in the tournament. How do you get a high seed? Being consistently good all year. Therefore, championships aren't a product of luck but of skill.

Fortunately, the NCAA hasn't started giving out participation trophies (yet) so only one team leaves the tournament satisfied. In that regard, there will always be a handful of teams who were probably legitimately good enough to win but had one off night, one bad bounce, one bad call, etc. prevent them from advancing. But that's why they play the game.

 

[dbeverly26]

Sure there is some luck involved within each game, but good teams overcome bad luck. You play who is put in front of you. One year of not being able to overcome bad luck to get to second week I can buy. Multiple years of “it” and it’s just a poor excuse. In all the reminiscing on here about the great teams we’ve had, can’t remember many posts about how lucky those teams were. But plenty of mention of luck when we go out earlier than expected. Hmmmm

The world is full of people who mistake their good fortune for having 'earned' something. It can be true that you both did everything in your power to succeed but that you also got some good luck along the way.

Can you imagine flipping a coin four times and getting three tails? Doesn't require much imagination.

And, yes, good teams win more than bad teams. What a lot of folks miss is that aside from maybe ten at the very top and ten at the very bottom, the rest of the field is made up of really even competition so the majority of games are like 60/40 toss-ups. That's why it's the greatest sporting event on Earth, but that also introduces a ton of luck into the equation.

Anyway, believe what you want to believe, but if you think that luck isn't a thing that can get you a couple of bad years in a row I don't know what else to tell you, and frankly I should probably not waste my time trying. It's good practice for dinner tomorrow, I guess.

 

[Boskydell]

About the same. TJ looks a little bit better, Luke’s shooting is a piece we were missing from last year. But we are still building connectivity on defense and guys are still finding their roles. Hard to remember, but that 20-21 team started off so so and didn’t really take off until Grandi found his role and moved into the starting lineup.

Think we will take a jump when ~2 of the following things happen:
Domask settles into a clear # 2/consistent 13-15 ppg scorer
We get good Coleman more than bad Coleman
Quincy’s wrist heals and he gets back to knocking down 3’s at 35%+
Harmon settles into a Feliz-lite role
The lightbulb goes on for DGL
The lightbulb goes on for Amani

I am cautiously optimistic we will take a leap at some point this year. It’s just a question of seeding and if we get stuck on the 8/9 line again. Really need TN or FAU, probably Tenn more so.

And just as an aside I still contend we sweep Purdue this year if Sencire plays. Purdue’s guards did not look comfortable at all against Tenn. Took a transcendent Loyer game to win that one.

#7. Moretti gets healthy.

 

[lstewart53x3]

This is why I'll never be able to get on the "tournament is luck" wagon. If luck were such a huge factor, you'd expect championships to be more evenly dispersed across seeds. But they aren't.

The higher the seed, the higher the chance is of going further in the tournament. How do you get a high seed? Being consistently good all year. Therefore, championships aren't a product of luck but of skill.

Fortunately, the NCAA hasn't started giving out participation trophies (yet) so only one team leaves the tournament satisfied. In that regard, there will always be a handful of teams who were probably legitimately good enough to win but had one off night, one bad bounce, one bad call, etc. prevent them from advancing. But that's why they play the game.

Of course skill plays a role, no here is saying it doesn’t.

But what if you played the entire tournament twice, would you get the same outcome? Would the same teams be in the sweet 16 / elite 8 / final 4? If not, why?

 

[BWA]

Of course skill plays a role, no here is saying it doesn’t.

But what if you played the entire tournament twice, would you get the same outcome? Would the same teams be in the sweet 16 / elite 8 / final 4? If not, why?

Probably depends on the year, but likely less than 50% would be the same just based on statistical modelling/probability for each game. Especially true in a year when there are a lot of upsets.

If you replayed the tournament, I would think it would be extremely unlikely that last years final four consisting of seeds 2,5,5, and 6 would have even two of the same four teams.

Purdue beats FDU like 19/20 times.
Arizona beats Princeton like 9/10 times.
Those two games alone completely change the Matchups the rest of the way.

Plus, injuries, exhaustion due to overtime, game times, etc.

 

[Combo]

Question:

This far into the season, if you had to pick one, you are (more/less) confident we make the S16?

I wouldn't bet on it. I think we (again) lose in the second round. We've got some nice pieces, but they really don't fit together well. The said, the season is young and I reserve the right to change my opinion.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Of course skill plays a role, no here is saying it doesn’t.

But what if you played the entire tournament twice, would you get the same outcome? Would the same teams be in the sweet 16 / elite 8 / final 4? If not, why?

Not only does skill play a role, but it is the variable with the strongest influence over how far a team advances. Much more so than luck.

Luck does play a role but it's a small role and it becomes even smaller the better a team is relative to their competition. Which is to say, if you're good enough, you don't need luck. If you need luck, you're just not good enough relative to the team you're playing. And that brings us back to skill.

Would the tournament produce the same outcome twice in a row? Of course not. Teams have occasional bad games. Players have occasional bad games. Coaches have occasional bad games. You can't have many bad games in the tournament and live to tell about it. But the best teams have the least amount of bad games. So they advance furthest. Which brings us back to skill again.

I will give you credit, it's an interesting hypothetical. But it is still a hypothetical. What I'm talking about is backed by a large sample of actual results though. It's undeniably true that higher seeds do well in the tournament. A #1 or #2 seed has won the tournament 29 out of 38 times since the 64 team field began.

Now, people can laugh that off as a random product of luck akin to rolling the same number on a die 76 times out of 100, but I think maybe it has more to do with the skill level of higher seeded teams vs lower seeded teams.

 

[Bigtex]

This is why I'll never be able to get on the "tournament is luck" wagon. If luck were such a huge factor, you'd expect championships to be more evenly dispersed across seeds. But they aren't.

The higher the seed, the higher the chance is of going further in the tournament. How do you get a high seed? Being consistently good all year. Therefore, championships aren't a product of luck but of skill.

Fortunately, the NCAA hasn't started giving out participation trophies (yet) so only one team leaves the tournament satisfied. In that regard, there will always be a handful of teams who were probably legitimately good enough to win but had one off night, one bad bounce, one bad call, etc. prevent them from advancing. But that's why they play the game.

So Illinois must really be unlucky

History of ncaat Illinois has beaten one team when we were the higher seed. We won as a 9 over an 8. It has nothing to do with game prep and execution. Just extremely unlucky as a 1 vs Loyola as a 3 vs austin pea, 5 vs 12 Dayton, etc etc

 

[lstewart53x3]

Not only does skill play a role, but it is the variable with the strongest influence over how far a team advances. Much more so than luck.

Luck does play a role but it's a small role and it becomes even smaller the better a team is relative to their competition. Which is to say, if you're good enough, you don't need luck. If you need luck, you're just not good enough relative to the team you're playing. And that brings us back to skill.

Would the tournament produce the same outcome twice in a row? Of course not. Teams have occasional bad games. Players have occasional bad games. Coaches have occasional bad games. You can't have many bad games in the tournament and live to tell about it. But the best teams have the least amount of bad games. So they advance furthest. Which brings us back to skill again.

I will give you credit, it's an interesting hypothetical. But it is still a hypothetical. What I'm talking about is backed by a large sample of actual results though. It's undeniably true that higher seeds do well in the tournament. A #1 or #2 seed has won the tournament 29 out of 38 times since the 64 team field began.

Now, people can laugh that off as a random product of luck akin to rolling the same number on a die 76 times out of 100, but I think maybe it has more to do with the skill level of higher seeded teams vs lower seeded teams.

You’re confusing luck with probability.

If you have an 80% chance of winning a basketball game based on your skill vs the other team’s skill, you’re more likely to win that game.

But if you played 10x, you’d still lose twice.

In a single elimination tournament, you just stumble into one of those two losses.

Which is why there are dozens of upsets every single year and out of millions of brackets submitted, no one gets a perfect.

It’s impossible to predict how a team will perform in the tourney until they get there.

 

[BRucks]

At least the Marquette loss is a bit better...they seem to be the best team right now.

I see the Kolek kid hasn't come close to matching the 24 points that he scored vs. us in their other games thus far. He's had 14, 9 and 6 points in his other outings. For some reason we seem to bring out the best in some players.

 

[Illiniprime]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1727466035110891725

Interesting tweet from Sencire, has he changed his mind?

 

[21ChampaignSt]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1727466035110891725

Interesting tweet from Sencire, has he changed his mind?

Probably watching this Maui game.

 

[The Galloping Ghost]

I see the Kolek kid hasn't come close to matching the 24 points that he scored vs. us in their other games thus far. He's had 14, 9 and 6 points in his other outings. For some reason we seem to bring out the best in some players.

He's working through an ankle injury. Currently has 20 on 7-10 shooting against the #2 team in the country with 7 minutes left. He's legit.

 

[Goillinikobd]

You’re confusing luck with probability.

If you have an 80% chance of winning a basketball game based on your skill vs the other team’s skill, you’re more likely to win that game.

But if you played 10x, you’d still lose twice.

In a single elimination tournament, you just stumble into one of those two losses.

Which is why there are dozens of upsets every single year and out of millions of brackets submitted, no one gets a perfect.

It’s impossible to predict how a team will perform in the tourney until they get there.

It’s impossible to accurately predict how a team will perform in the tourney until the tourney is over. )

 

[Point-Illinois]

For the whole luck conversation, a great and perfectly recent/relevant example of having just a little luck in 50/50 games is this Marquette/Purdue game.

End of the half Purdue throws up a 75 footer and drains it. No way anyone can honestly say that those 3 points were earned by skill. Maybe you practice that shot here/there but it’s probably less than a 1% shot. Lucky it went in.

Purdue won by 3.

In a less extreme example, Marquette is down 3 and puts Purdue at the line with like 12 seconds left.

They miss the FT and the ball bounces directly to Edey. Not that Edey got good position (he was being careful not to foul) just that the ball literally bounced directly in his direction and arced in a way that it could only find his hands.

That isn’t skill or bball IQ (he was forced to be in that spot due to it being a FT), just luck that Fletcher Loyer missed a FT and it came right to him and forced Marquette to foul again.

In these close games, where skill levels are matched, luck can be a huge factor in a game winning play even if not a huge variable throughout the entire game.

 

[chudaman]

About the same. TJ looks a little bit better, Luke’s shooting is a piece we were missing from last year. But we are still building connectivity on defense and guys are still finding their roles. Hard to remember, but that 20-21 team started off so so and didn’t really take off until Grandi found his role and moved into the starting lineup.

Think we will take a jump when ~2 of the following things happen:
Domask settles into a clear # 2/consistent 13-15 ppg scorer
We get good Coleman more than bad Coleman
Quincy’s wrist heals and he gets back to knocking down 3’s at 35%+
Harmon settles into a Feliz-lite role
The lightbulb goes on for DGL
The lightbulb goes on for Amani

I am cautiously optimistic we will take a leap at some point this year. It’s just a question of seeding and if we get stuck on the 8/9 line again. Really need TN or FAU, probably Tenn more so.

And just as an aside I still contend we sweep Purdue this year if Sencire plays. Purdue’s guards did not look comfortable at all against Tenn. Took a transcendent Loyer game to win that one.

The light bulb is already on for Amani. He just needs to get stronger plus it will help when all of the 24 yr. olds have used up their eligibility.

 

[PepeSilvia]

To put that much emphasis on two games, what you're saying is that, less Purdue, the entire conference sucks, which pretty much puts every team, other than Purdue, in the same boat as us.

The bulk of "resume building wins" generally comes within conference. There should be 14 to 15 chances at "quality wins". Those should be there. There might not be a marquee win on the schedule, but there should be a bunch of good ones. Just avoid bad losses and they'll be fine.

P.s...Beating UT would be great, but we're going to be significant dogs in that game and we're probably going to get curb stomped.

Tennessee isn't exactly the type of team that should stomp us.

It will likely end up being a slugfest. Tennessee is a lot more dynamic offensively than last year but still the Illini will play them tough.

Let Shannon match up 1 on 1 vs Knecht. Then use your rotation and run Vescovi and Gainey off the 3pt line. They only really have one big in Aidoo.