if he is cleared he can still play in the NBA and his stock may drop some but he is projected as a first rounder, a couple of months off beating a rape charge wont be the end of his basketball career. There are actually bigger things at play here then the conference championship.
TSJ Thread
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So much of this is where he is projected in the draft. If he's a top 5 pick, sure, his stock drops but he still gets drafted and gets a payday. Problem is that he is projected more like 20-30ish, which if his stock drops he's completely SOL.
What Miller did was a clear violation of University of Alabama student code of conduct. A student cannot possess a firearm on university premises. He knowingly drove through campus with a gun in the vehicle that he was driving. Because it wasn't a crime, he never denied that he did it and it was confirmed based on texts between him and one of the accused (forget if shooter or someone else who was with the shooter). I could not believe he wasn't at least suspended.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Shouldn’t we only need to see (at least circumstantial) evidence that he IS guilty and not the other way around? The allegation appears ESPECIALLY weak, and that should count in Terrance’s favor if he’s also LEGALLY assumed to be innocent.
There's no actual odds
It's going to take me some time to read the entire U of I response, but the following gives key insight to the panel:
"The Panel’s decision is informed by submissions of any evidence or information the student-athlete chooses to submit. The Panel’s role is not to second-guess or judge whether the arrest, charges, or criminal prosecution were justified. Instead, its role pursuant to the DIA Policy is to assess whether the suspension remains appropriate, given the nature of the allegations, the circumstances of the case, and the information at hand; if so, the student-athlete’s athletic participation remains on hold until the criminal process concludes or other “new information” is provided to the Panel that warrants lifting the interim suspension. The DIA Policy reflects that an arrest and criminal felony charge do not occur without serious evidence (including probable cause attestations and judicial issuance of a warrant), and that for this reason, credible information of a major offense like an arrest and criminal charge must be taken seriously and may require interim action that continues while charges are pending. Even in such serious cases, the student-athlete is given an opportunity to be heard and to present evidence, if any exists, that an interim suspension is inappropriate, and the Panel will weigh that information in making its determination."
In other words, the panel took seriously the arrest and felony charge and are operating under the assumption that it is serious credible information as it would not occur without serious evidence. So, unless TSJ has direct evidence that were to prove he could not have committed said crime, this appears to be a barrier that will not be possible to overcome. As such, it's safe to same that the only way the panel would allow TSJ to play is if all charges were dropped, and thus the only real chance for TSJ to play again this season is for the courts to grant him this TRO.
Overall, I'm really not hopeful here. If the TRO isn't granted, I think there's likely a very low probability that TSJ suits up again. And man do I hope I'm wrong because it seems at worst that TSJ is not-guilty of all charges in this case based on the evidence leaked thus far if not outright innocent. Sigh...
"The Panel’s decision is informed by submissions of any evidence or information the student-athlete chooses to submit. The Panel’s role is not to second-guess or judge whether the arrest, charges, or criminal prosecution were justified. Instead, its role pursuant to the DIA Policy is to assess whether the suspension remains appropriate, given the nature of the allegations, the circumstances of the case, and the information at hand; if so, the student-athlete’s athletic participation remains on hold until the criminal process concludes or other “new information” is provided to the Panel that warrants lifting the interim suspension. The DIA Policy reflects that an arrest and criminal felony charge do not occur without serious evidence (including probable cause attestations and judicial issuance of a warrant), and that for this reason, credible information of a major offense like an arrest and criminal charge must be taken seriously and may require interim action that continues while charges are pending. Even in such serious cases, the student-athlete is given an opportunity to be heard and to present evidence, if any exists, that an interim suspension is inappropriate, and the Panel will weigh that information in making its determination."
In other words, the panel took seriously the arrest and felony charge and are operating under the assumption that it is serious credible information as it would not occur without serious evidence. So, unless TSJ has direct evidence that were to prove he could not have committed said crime, this appears to be a barrier that will not be possible to overcome. As such, it's safe to same that the only way the panel would allow TSJ to play is if all charges were dropped, and thus the only real chance for TSJ to play again this season is for the courts to grant him this TRO.
Overall, I'm really not hopeful here. If the TRO isn't granted, I think there's likely a very low probability that TSJ suits up again. And man do I hope I'm wrong because it seems at worst that TSJ is not-guilty of all charges in this case based on the evidence leaked thus far if not outright innocent. Sigh...
I have said this at least ten times-the TRO is not the end all be all here. I am very optimistic that he will be back on the court this year, and I have good reason to be. There are a number of things in the works, this is just the first effort to get him out there on the court. We will see what happens then go from there
This is what I feel is missed amongst many on here, these aren't allegations he is beating these are charges. They were apparently allegations previously these are now charges brought forth by a court. So, now you have to beat the argument that you did this act. Its not like you just sit there and they have to prove you did it. This is a real court case and its very serious. He needs the charges dropped for this to go away. I don't see that in the cards right now. Also "we" don't need anything. This is a court case and school policy. We don't know jack.
Krombopulos_Michael
- Aurora, Illinois (that’s a suburb of Chicago)
Has the request for a TRO changed the tune or mindset of members of the DIA that have behind the scenes supported TSJ? My worry is that this process will make things get ugly fast regardless of what happens today.
Wondering if it's interesting that UIMBB social media team (university employees) used Shannon's presence at the football game to promote Illini Athletics by posting that photo to insta/twitter.
theNewGuy
- Dallas, TX
I'm not an expert on NBA contracts by any means but being drafted guarantees you a 4 year contract and I'll estimate TJ would get at least $2.5M per year.
If he does not get drafted, He will sign a much less lucrative contract with less guaranteed money and years. With a bigger contract comes more pressure to play, which could lead to a second contract.
Having an inexpensive, short term deal, could mean a lot of things. Easy to cut if TJ goes through a cold streak. Easy to replace if not playing up to expected. No backlash to the coach if the coach plays him less. Basically no second chances.
Being drafted vs not drafted is a HUGGEEEE deal
This isn't a commentary on TSJ's guilt or innocence and not singling you out specifically, Chief. But many people are completely overlooking the fact that a victim's testimony can be a preponderance of evidence in and of itself.
Whether we like it or not, as soon as a victim accuses someone of a sexual crime, the prosecution has ~50% of the evidence they need for a conviction. Which shifts a lot of burden over to the defense to prove their innocence. That's just the way it is.
Here is a decision from 2021 in Massachusetts (Lawrence, MA of all places). A man was found guilty of assaulting a 13 year old girl based fully on the girl's testimony. The defendant later appealed claiming that the prosecution didn't present any evidence of his guilt.
The court rejected the appeal stating, "We reject the defendant's contention that corroborative, extrinsic, or forensic evidence, or expert or third-party witness testimony is required to support a conviction of rape or sexual assault where the victim testified as a witness at the trial."
For his own sake, TSJ needs to supply evidence that he's not guilty or find a way to undermine the accuser's credibility. Otherwise, I'd be very nervous if I were him and this thing goes to a jury trial.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Change my word “allegation” to “DA’s charge,” and nothing else would change. The DA DOES have to do all of the heavy lifting. If she walks into that courtroom with nothing but what’s been released so far, TSJ’s defense indeed could just sit back and let that crappy evidence (not) speak for itself … because as of now, there isn’t actually evidence of anything as far as I can tell.
Without all this dancing around, it appears you’re saying being charged with something implies at least something in and of itself as far as allowing him to play. I disagree (as in I don’t support that outlook), and I think the DIA should look at each case individually and decide if it will allow an athlete to play based on what the details available are … I think these details look incredibly weak.
IANAL, but is apparent (yes, I read the first 20 or so pages of the document) is that lawyers get paid by the word . . .
Of course, and I agree with you. But it's been floated here several times the idea that this is the team's lifeline to get out from under their own policy. It's a ridiculous notion, and only something a school like Alabama would go for. If he is let back onto the court again without charges being dropped or the court literally ordering him back on the court, the reputational damage and media scrutiny would be far worse than anything we got during the Beckman scandal.
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
And here I thought brevity is the soul of wit.
Sounds like the Kendrick Nunn blueprint
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
If charges were dropped tomorrow, there’d be at least one poster here nervous about the immaculate University of Illinois letting a player who WAS charged on the court, even if the charges were dropped.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
How many funny lawyers do you know?
. . . and the University will be just fine . . . .
You're over-estimating the media and the attention span of the American public. Sure Berstein will kvetch but he always does.
You mentioned Miller, did it devestate their athletic program? Did they become the pariahs of NCAA Basketball? It's ancient history and their program and instituion didn't miss a beat.
What will the CPL say if they view us as the reason TSJ's career was torpedoed?
This is a problematic assumption that is skewing the views of many on here.
I think your point is fair, but I think it is pretty clear from the people that I have talked to that she does not seem to have much else. This is more about pride at this point, which if true is really sad
Why is a suspension merited only on the court? I assume he still goes to class. If the panel has no investigatory authority what is its purpose.? Seems like its to cover the University's !!!, without consideration of the harm that might ensue to Shannon. Did Whitman implement this nonsense knowing it would never hold up in Court.
"The court weighs the irreparable harm that the moving party would endure without the protection of the preliminary injunction against any irreparable harm the nonmoving party would suffer if the court were to grant the requested relief." The purpose is to maintain the status quo.
The Seventh Circuit recently clarified how likely success on the merits must be in order to satisfy the standard. Ill. Republican Party v. Pritzker, 973 F.3d 760, 762 (7th Cir. 2020). The Court explained that a "possibility of success is not enough" and "[n]either is a better than negligible chance."
But the moving party "need not show that it definitely will win the case." Id. at 763. "So when you say conclusively Title IX does not apply Shannon doesn't have to prove at this stage it definitely does.
In rape cases, you are guilty until proven innocent unfortunately. There doesn't have to be any other evidence other than the believability of the accuser's story. Your life is in the hand's of a jury. Be careful out there!
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