In general, we have had a tragic history in March Madness ... the fact that 5 Final Fours, 9 Elite Eights and 13 Sweet Sixteens is "tragic" shows just how great we have been during the regular season historically. Our NCAA Tournament pedigree might not even be top 30 all-time, whereas our regular season pedigree is borderline top 10 ... hence why you usually find the Illini in the top 20-25 programs all-time. We need another big Tournament run.
Going back to 1980, I looked where we had a top 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, as I think that's a reasonable cutoff for "having a decent chance" at a run. You set yourself up VERY reasonably to be in the Second Round and at least play a winnable game to make the Sweet Sixteen.
Impressively, of all of the NCAA Tournaments in this timeframe if you count what we were projected at for 2020 and what we are projected at for this year, the Illini have been a top 6 seed in over half of those years, even counting years we didn't make it at all like that terrible stretch under Groce! We have given ourselves many, many chances, and it has produced a lot of heartache for our Illini ... which I would sort into these categories.
MASSIVE DISAPPOINTMENT
1987: First Round loss as a #3 seed that finished #11 in the AP Poll. Honestly glad I was not alive for this one, my dad still doesn't like to talk about it, lol...
2021: Second Round loss to a smaller instate school as a #1 seed that finished #2 in the AP Poll ... ugh, still haunts me.
DISAPPOINTMENT
1981: Sweet Sixteen as a #4 seed is nice, but we lost to a #8 seed there. Elite Eight was there for the taking.
1988: Second Round loss as a #3 seed to the #6 seed.
1990: First Round loss as a #5 seed.
1997: Second Round loss as a #6 seed might seem like the default, but as you noted we lost to #14 seed Chattanooga, and #10 Providence had just upset #2 Duke ... missed chance to finally go on a SURPRISE NCAA Tournament run.
2003: Second Round loss as a #4 seed to a #5 seed might seem reasonable, but this is the first ENTIRE season I remember ... we came out so flat vs. Notre Dame, and I really thought that team could go further in Cook's senior year.
2009: First Round loss as a #5 seed is always a disappointment, but I also will say that we all had very little confidence in this squad without Chester out there.
ARGUABLY MET EXPECTATIONS BUT IN A DISAPPOINTING WAY
1986: Second Round loss as a #4 seed to the #5 seed (and by 2 points) ... you're theoretically the favorite, but it's a toss-up (and we were only #19 in the AP Poll that year so maybe even over-seeded?).
2001: Elite Eight loss as a #1 seed to a #2 seed. Arguably our goal was a Final Four, but that Arizona team was really tough ... it's obviously beyond frustrating the way we lost with an NCAAT-record number of fouls...
2006: Second Round loss as a #4 seed to a #5 seed. Some might see this as a disappointment given the incredibly high status of the program at this time, but I just remember not really thinking this team was going far ... we were within a missed 3-pointer of the Sweet Sixteen. Disappointing but not a flop.
MET REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS IN A SATISFACTORY WAY
1984: Elite Eight as a #2 seed, and we lost to a #1 seed. Yes, the WAY we lost (BS call playing Kentucky on their literal home floor) I'm sure was massively disappointing, but a successful postseason nonetheless.
1985: Sweet Sixteen as a #3 seed is reasonable if you lose to the #2 seed.
1989: Final Four as a #1 seed is all you can ask for, IMO. That team was good enough to win it all so it's disappointing (especially losing to Michigan), but this is still a season where we did what we set out to do - make it to the Final Four.
1993: Second Round loss as a #6 seed to the #3 seed. Plus, we got smoked, lol, so we weren't going anywhere.
1998: Second Round loss as a #5 seed to the #4 seed.
2000: Second Round loss as a #4 seed to a #5 seed - and that #5 seed Florida team would make its way all the way to the National Championship Game. Plus, I feel like we were still "learning to be good" again as a program with all of those young guys.
2002: Sweet Sixteen as a #4 seed, and we lost to a #1 seed. We were also coming off of an Elite Eight run where we lost some key players, so it really spoke to the health of the program that we were right back in the Second Weekend the next year.
2022: Second Round loss as a #4 seed to a #5 seed. Similarly to 2006, our record earned us a top 4 seed, but we weren't really playing like it. The difference from 2006, IMO, was that Houston was very under-seeded and we'd just hung a Big Ten Championship banner, so this one was easier to take, at least for me ... the only disappointment is that the whole "not making the Second Weekend" narrative REALLY gained steam here.
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
2004: Sweet Sixteen as a #5 seed, and we lost to a #1 seed. The real travesty here is that this team was not a higher seed, but the way we pummeled #4 seed Cincinnati in the Second Round and the fact that we had everyone returning gave me a good feeling as we exited this Tournament.
2005: National Championship Game loss as a #1 seed to another #1 seed. Yes, the goal was to win it all ... but if you are one of the last TWO teams standing playing for a National Title down to the final seconds, you have had an incredible year ... March Madness is a single-elimination crapshoot, after all.
YET TO BE
2024: #13 AP - #4 seed projected - Sweet Sixteen expectation, given everything?
P.S. Before my time gets audited by the board, no I am not working today!
Very nicely done. Sucks that you had to do it on your own time, though.
