These were the odds of a given seed to advance to the following rounds, pre-2023 NCAA Tournament:
#1% Seed
85.1% Sweet Sixteen
68.2% Elite Eight
40.5% Final Four
#2 Seed
62.8% Sweet Sixteen
45.3% Elite Eight
21.6% Final Four
#3 Seed
52.0% Sweet Sixteen
25.0% Elite Eight
11.5% Final Four
#4 Seed
47.3% Sweet Sixteen
14.9% Elite Eight
8.8% Final Four
#5 Seed
33.8% Sweet Sixteen
6.8% Elite Eight
4.7% Final Four
#6 Seed
29.1% Sweet Sixteen
10.1% Elite Eight
2.0% Final Four
#7 Seed
18.9% Sweet Sixteen
6.8% Elite Eight
2.0% Final Four
Two things jump out at me why I desperately want to be in the bottom half of the bracket for once:
1. While it looks like a #4 seed is more likely to make a Sweet Sixteen than a #5 seed by a decent margin, a #4 seed wins its First Round game 78% of the time whereas a #5 seed wins it 66% of the time ... so you are just running a higher risk of not even getting the chance to play for a Sweet Sixteen if you are a #5 seed. I still feel like an actual 4/5 game in the Second Round is more or less a tossup.
2. If you will notice, once you break through to the Sweet Sixteen, #7 seed actually has just as much of a chance to advance to the Elite Eight as a #5 seed, and the #6 seed is significantly more likely to! Again, I am surprised by how the #4 seed record is that much better than the #5, but either way ... especially in a year like this, I think most can agree it's preferable not to run into the buzz saw of a #1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen when you are playing well. Give our 2004 or 2002 teams a #3 seed, and we might have at least one more Final Four today...
