danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Hoping to make it up on Saturday if we can take care of business in the quarters!
Bracketology
- Status
Hoping to make it up on Saturday if we can take care of business in the quarters!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I feel like you are not alone in that thought process and thus attendance will be really interesting this year! Minneapolis will provide a unique environment.
- If Illinois is ever TRULY rolling, we have a significant home court advantage at the United Center. It was a 85%+ orange crowd vs. PSU last year in a disappointing season, and in years like 2005 we have had the place looking no different than SFC. However, if we suck or get knocked out early, schools like MSU, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, etc. can help to carry attendance.
- Same story with Indiana and to a lesser extent Purdue in Indianapolis. They obviously have a home court advantage, but I have seen games there where the significant majority of the crowd was Illini fans, and you have schools like the Michigan schools and OSU that also bring good crowds.
- I imagine if Rutgers were ever Big Ten champs, they would bring out a large contingent at Madison Square Garden. However, you have multiple schools like Penn State (although their basketball fan base is pretty weak), Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, etc. with large alumni bases in the NYC area, and Maryland is not that far away.
However, I really feel like Minneapolis' "base" attendance REALLY relies on the Gophers and the Badgers. If you leave the BTT seed calculator alone with the default results, these are the teams on each day:
Wednesday: Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, Rutgers. IU fans traditionally "travel well," but Minneapolis is quite far away, and the Hoosiers suck this year. I have to imagine attendance for these first two games would be pretty awful.
Thursday: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State. You have the three teams most likely to bring a large contingent all possibly losing on the Thursday - Minnesota playing a surging OSU team, Wisconsin in a bit of a free fall and Iowa playing PSU. If all three teams lost, I think you would see ticket prices plummet a bit for Friday, and a lot of Purdue and Illini fans would snag them up, with some waiting to see if their team made it to Saturday before pulling the trigger.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
You forgot Sunday at 2:30 PM
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
If you just use the current/default bracket, this is our path:
Quarterfinals: vs. #7 Iowa or #10 Penn State
Semifinals: vs. #3 Nebraska or #6 Michigan State/#11 Maryland/#14 Michigan
Other than my weird psychological fear of playing Maryland, I would LOVE this bracket:
1. I do NOT see us having a letdown game vs. PSU after that collapse, if they were to get past Iowa. Similarly, I would relish at the opportunity to play our biggest rival Iowa in the BTT semifinals for the second time in four years.
2. Then from the bottom of the bracket, I will take my chances that Nebraska doesn't shoot QUITE as lights out against us again, and I think we can take them on a neutral floor. I would also really like another shot at Michigan State, and we have at least proven we CAN beat Maryland, so a bit of that "curse" is theoretically broken! Of course, if Michigan is lucky enough to win two to get to us, they'd probably be gassed and it's like clockwork that we beat them, so...
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I fully expect to be watching our Illini then, but I left it off because it's at the same time no matter your seed.You forgot Sunday at 2:30 PM
Does MSU have to win against Indiana to make the tourney? Or are they already in?
As of now, I'm thinking
Purdue
Illinois
Nebraksa
Wisconsin
are locks
Iowa & MSU on the bubble
As of now, I'm thinking
Purdue
Illinois
Nebraksa
Wisconsin
are locks
Iowa & MSU on the bubble
biglug58
- Chicago, IL
Northwestern
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
I want 3 things:
- MSU as the 7 seed so we can play them in the quarters. That's Q1 bordering on Q1a.
- Wisconsin in the semis for another borderline Q1a (Nebraska OK there too).
- Minnesota as the 8/9 seed - guarantees either they or Purdue will miss the semis (my gut says they'll have the biggest impact on ticket prices)
- MSU as the 7 seed so we can play them in the quarters. That's Q1 bordering on Q1a.
- Wisconsin in the semis for another borderline Q1a (Nebraska OK there too).
- Minnesota as the 8/9 seed - guarantees either they or Purdue will miss the semis (my gut says they'll have the biggest impact on ticket prices)
Bigtex
- DFW
You left off northwestern as a lock
Mich st with good net is in
Iowa on the outside. We can eliminate them with a win Sunday in Iowa
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think this all sounds perfect. I would bet the fan bases break down somewhat like this:
- Wisconsin and especially Minnesota will have large contingents as long as they are in.
- Iowa will have the next largest in isolation, but it would depend on game time, if they make it to Friday, etc.
- Illinois and Purdue will bring decent followings because they are good, and their contingents will increase significantly the longer they are in.
- MSU and Indiana will bring decent contingents because they are "good fans" or whatever.
- The rest will simply have their small little pockets and won't affect ticket sales.
Well, I think if we are the “#1 or #2 4 seed” we have a shot at Pittsburg. If we are one of the bottom 2 4th seeds we are either getting Spokane or Salt Lake. There simply is no place to put teams 15 and 16 even though a top 4 seed is suppose to get “protected”
Explain to me how MSU is a lock if they lose to IU. Is that Baylor win the only reason?
They beat us. That's also a good reason.
Their preconference schedule was extremely challenging and they actually beat good teams:
Duke(L)
Arizona (L)
Baylor (W)
Indiana State (W)
Butler (W)
They'd never be penalized for lining up that non-conference schedule and nor should they be. Compared to that, our non-conference schedule sucked. Tennessee was tough, but FAU ended up being average.
They're benefitting from not being afraid of scheduling good teams.
Their preconference schedule was extremely challenging and they actually beat good teams:
Duke(L)
Arizona (L)
Baylor (W)
Indiana State (W)
Butler (W)
They'd never be penalized for lining up that non-conference schedule and nor should they be. Compared to that, our non-conference schedule sucked. Tennessee was tough, but FAU ended up being average.
They're benefitting from not being afraid of scheduling good teams.
danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
They have Quad 1 wins over Baylor, us, Maryland, and Indiana State (the latter two are iffy though). 5 more Q2 wins, and no bad losses. Not a great resume, but solid - and the predictive metrics still say they're a top-25 team.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
And to add to that point, IU (they are 95 NET at the moment and would rise higher if they beat MSU) would most likely end up as a Quad 2 game, so there would be no "bad losses", no matter how that game ends up.
Tons of open seats from ORD-MSP on Friday.
Current projection bracket with BYU in potential 2nd round. I can see them going 17 -21 from 3....
Other than Purdue and Illinois what a down year for this conference.
If we beat Iowa Sunday I’m seeing an extremely likely scenario where Iowa gets the 7 seed and we could play them back to back. Don’t love that or am I missing something
I've accepted our ceiling is likely a 4.
Here's what I think we should root for: Tennessee to get the last one seed and for as many SEC teams to be on the 4 line with us. Right now on bracket matrix we are a 4 with Auburn, Bama, and Kentucky as the other 4s. In this scenario, we would almost certainly be the 4 seed in the Tennessee region with the 5 seed being South Carolina. It isn't an awesome draw, but thats as good as we can realistically hope for. Even two SEC teams on the 4 line with us increase the odds of us not being with UConn or Houston substantially (we won't be in the Purdue region).
Here's what I think we should root for: Tennessee to get the last one seed and for as many SEC teams to be on the 4 line with us. Right now on bracket matrix we are a 4 with Auburn, Bama, and Kentucky as the other 4s. In this scenario, we would almost certainly be the 4 seed in the Tennessee region with the 5 seed being South Carolina. It isn't an awesome draw, but thats as good as we can realistically hope for. Even two SEC teams on the 4 line with us increase the odds of us not being with UConn or Houston substantially (we won't be in the Purdue region).
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
I wouldn't call Nebraska a lock. They could make it but one BTT win makes it a lock. Michigan is truly awful but Nebraska has been really bad on the road. In the unlikely event that Nebraska would lose to Michigan this weekend, they would be very bubbly.
43rd in NET
37th in BPI
They'll need to beat UM badly to avoid sliding down in NET
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
That is possible, but their win against Purdue will carry serious weight. Not to mention, @Michigan will be a Quad 2 game. While we would all say it is a bad loss, it would not show up that way. I consider Nebraska a virtual lock unless there are a multitude of bid thieves and they lose badly in their next two games.
IMO, if you are not putting Nebraska in the lock status, then Northwestern is most certainly bubbly with that ugly Q4 loss and even lower NET.
I was thinking the same thing, but this link is saying the only way MSU gets the 7 seed is if we lose to Iowa (plus MSU winning and Wisconsin winning at least 1). Kind of a bummer if true (I haven't verified).
Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for Michigan State basketball
With just a handful of games left in Big Ten play, MSU’s seeding scenarios for the Big Ten Tournament are starting to take form:
spartanswire.usatoday.com
Last edited:
Adding to this...I believe our best case scenario is Wisconsin with the 7 seed. Which means we need Wisconsin to lose to Rutgers and Purdue, plus we need MSU to beat Indiana.
Then hopefully get a 3 seed Nebraska for another Q1 opportunity.
- Status