danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
- Rochester, MN
Update to the seed vs. quality chart after this week's game:
Bracketology
- Status
Looking at the 4 seeds vs 5 seeds on bracket matrix...all the 4 seeds are looking very dangerous. Us, Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn. Some years the 4 and 5 seeds are pretty interchangeable. This year those 4 seeds look considerably scarier than the 5's.
But obviously bracket matrix isn't official. It would be very unfortunate if we dropped to a 5 and got matched up against one of those current 4's. Or vice versa.
But obviously bracket matrix isn't official. It would be very unfortunate if we dropped to a 5 and got matched up against one of those current 4's. Or vice versa.
A win at Iowa seals a #4 seed. If the Illini lose to Iowa, but win two games in the Big Ten tournament, they keep their #4 seed as well. I even think if they win one game in the tournament, they'll probably be the lowest #4 seed.
One more win this year clinches a 4. With that being said, let's win tomorrow and get to Sunday of the BTT and see if a 3 loses a couple in a row
3 years is too long, I want another BTT banner
For sure. In the end, the percentages should play out with the Illini being a 4 seed. It'd be very nice to see them in the final against PU on Sunday.
Creighton and Alabama with NCAAT style victories to stay in front of Illinois.
Gross. Both teams were on the fence. Creighton did hit a sick shot to win it and bama drilled one to tie it.... But I still don't like it
I don't see AL as in front of us. Beating ark at home in OT because ref didn't call hit to head on dunk near end of regulation doesn't count as ncaat win
I’ll take a stab at what I think the committee has the top 16 seed line today:
1. Houston (1)
2. Purdue (1)
3. UConn (1)
4. Tennessee (1)
5. North Carolina (2)
6. Arizona (2)
7. Marquette (2)
8. Creighton (2)
9. Kentucky (3)
10. Kansas (3)
11. Iowa state (3)
12. Baylor (3)
13. Illinois (4)
14. Auburn (4)
15. Alabama (4)
16. BYU (4)
Next 4: Wazzu, Clemson, South Carolina, Florida….
Let's take a quick look at the at-large pool right now, according to T-Rank (since it's free and logical)...
There are 36 total at-large bids available in the tournament. According to T-Rank, there are currently 30 teams that are complete locks for bids:
Houston, Purdue, Connecticut, Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Creighton, Duke, Iowa State, Kansas, Illinois, Baylor, Kentucky, Alabama, BYU, Auburn, Texas, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Nevada, Boise State, San Diego State, Wisconsin, Florida, Dayton, Washington State, St. Mary's
Now, this could potentially eat up all but 6 of the at large bids if none of these teams wins the automatic bid, but that's not at all likely, as these teams represent 0 conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, WCC, MWC, A-10). So, assuming they all claim auto bids (I think a lot of bubble teams will be rooting hard for Dayton next week), that leaves a maximum of 15 bids remaining for teams that are not locked in yet.
Of the remaining teams, 11 are likely in (80% chance or better). Those teams are Michigan State, Utah State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, St. John's, Nebraska, TCU, Seton Hall, Florida Atlantic and Mississippi State. Florida Atlantic could get an auto bid for the American, so that leaves a maximum of 5 bids left for bubble teams (and remember, if Dayton loses the A-10 or FAU loses the American or Gonzaga/St. Mary's lose the WCC, or a surprise team wins a power conference, those bubble chances could be eliminated completely).
For those 5 bubble spots, there are 5 teams with better than even odds: Colorado, Indiana State, Villanova, Colorado State and Drake. One of Indiana State and Drake will win the MVC auto bid, as they play in the final today (again, bubble teams hard rooting for Indiana State, as they have the better profile), which would open up a spot or two for the bottom of the bubble.
The teams with a realistic chance at snagging the last at-large spots are Virginia, Iowa, Pitt, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Butler, South Florida, Richmond, Loyola (IL) and SMU. Those teams are over 10%. Everyone else is a long shot, including Ohio State, currently listed as the 10th team out and would have to go on some sort of magical run to the title game, lose the title game, and have 5-10 teams fall apart in front of them to steal the last bid.
There are 36 total at-large bids available in the tournament. According to T-Rank, there are currently 30 teams that are complete locks for bids:
Houston, Purdue, Connecticut, Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Creighton, Duke, Iowa State, Kansas, Illinois, Baylor, Kentucky, Alabama, BYU, Auburn, Texas, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, Nevada, Boise State, San Diego State, Wisconsin, Florida, Dayton, Washington State, St. Mary's
Now, this could potentially eat up all but 6 of the at large bids if none of these teams wins the automatic bid, but that's not at all likely, as these teams represent 0 conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, WCC, MWC, A-10). So, assuming they all claim auto bids (I think a lot of bubble teams will be rooting hard for Dayton next week), that leaves a maximum of 15 bids remaining for teams that are not locked in yet.
Of the remaining teams, 11 are likely in (80% chance or better). Those teams are Michigan State, Utah State, Oklahoma, Northwestern, St. John's, Nebraska, TCU, Seton Hall, Florida Atlantic and Mississippi State. Florida Atlantic could get an auto bid for the American, so that leaves a maximum of 5 bids left for bubble teams (and remember, if Dayton loses the A-10 or FAU loses the American or Gonzaga/St. Mary's lose the WCC, or a surprise team wins a power conference, those bubble chances could be eliminated completely).
For those 5 bubble spots, there are 5 teams with better than even odds: Colorado, Indiana State, Villanova, Colorado State and Drake. One of Indiana State and Drake will win the MVC auto bid, as they play in the final today (again, bubble teams hard rooting for Indiana State, as they have the better profile), which would open up a spot or two for the bottom of the bubble.
The teams with a realistic chance at snagging the last at-large spots are Virginia, Iowa, Pitt, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Butler, South Florida, Richmond, Loyola (IL) and SMU. Those teams are over 10%. Everyone else is a long shot, including Ohio State, currently listed as the 10th team out and would have to go on some sort of magical run to the title game, lose the title game, and have 5-10 teams fall apart in front of them to steal the last bid.
Unfortunately, Duke will be in there somewhere…
B1G tourney seeding almost set now.
PSU, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan will play Wednesday. If Maryland beats PSU, they'll get the 11 seed and PSU the 12, otherwise it's the opposite.
If Penn State wins, that will make Ohio State the 10 seed and Minnesota the 9 seed. If Maryland beats PSU, Ohio State is the 9 seed and Minnesota the 10.
Michigan State is the 8 seed.
On the other end of the bracket, Purdue is the 1 seed, Illinois the 2, Nebraska the 3, Northwestern the 4.
If Iowa beats Illinois, Iowa is the 5, Wisconsin the 6, Indiana the 7. If Illinois beats Iowa, Wisconsin is the 5, Indiana the 6, Iowa the 7.
PSU, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan will play Wednesday. If Maryland beats PSU, they'll get the 11 seed and PSU the 12, otherwise it's the opposite.
If Penn State wins, that will make Ohio State the 10 seed and Minnesota the 9 seed. If Maryland beats PSU, Ohio State is the 9 seed and Minnesota the 10.
Michigan State is the 8 seed.
On the other end of the bracket, Purdue is the 1 seed, Illinois the 2, Nebraska the 3, Northwestern the 4.
If Iowa beats Illinois, Iowa is the 5, Wisconsin the 6, Indiana the 7. If Illinois beats Iowa, Wisconsin is the 5, Indiana the 6, Iowa the 7.
Forgot about Duke… ew
Chad Fleck
- Eureka, IL
To my surprise, Maryland moved up to 72 in the Net since I last looked. Hopefully they can stay in that top 75 with this loss at PSU.
Drake beating Indiana St today should have taken away a P5 bubble spot
Right now I am not sure if MSU is in after today.
I normally don’t think conference tournaments mean much for the NCAA but with how close resumes are the first two rounds will burst bubbles or strengthen resumes. Still doubt you get full credit for the quad 1 wins
Right now I am not sure if MSU is in after today.
I normally don’t think conference tournaments mean much for the NCAA but with how close resumes are the first two rounds will burst bubbles or strengthen resumes. Still doubt you get full credit for the quad 1 wins
Yeah I could see this. They really need to win that first game of BTT to feel comfortable.
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Illini now #10 KenPom. And we're right on Creighton's butt for the #9 slot. (Still waiting for NET to update following today's victory.)
Seems like we're still sitting in the vicinity of a 3-seed. 2-1 in Minneapolis just might do it.
3-0 for the title, and an overall record of 26-8 and a 2-seed.
Seems like we're still sitting in the vicinity of a 3-seed. 2-1 in Minneapolis just might do it.
3-0 for the title, and an overall record of 26-8 and a 2-seed.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I think MSU is still safe right now. While not great, losing in Bloomington was only a Quad 2 loss. I think their win over NW keeps them safely in the field. However, beating MN on Friday makes them a lock (if not already).
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Wow -- and the #3 seed venues are all in (relatively) great/accessible locations.
* Memphis
* Indianapolis
* Pittsburgh
* Omaha
As I look at ESPN --- Kansas, Creighton and Baylor can all be passed this week.
* Memphis
* Indianapolis
* Pittsburgh
* Omaha
As I look at ESPN --- Kansas, Creighton and Baylor can all be passed this week.
Just looked at Jerry Palm's bracket update from earlier this morning, he had us 3rd among the 4 seeds and playing the first 2 rounds in Spokane. For those wanting us in the closer geographic venues mentioned above, here's who he has in those spots:
-Memphis: 1 seed Houston, 2 seed Baylor
-Indianapolis: 1 seed Purdue, 2 seed Marquette (This is the longest shot of any of them)
-Pittsburgh: 3 seed Creighton, 4 seed Alabama (Creighton can't play in Omaha since they're a host)
-Omaha: 3 seed Iowa State, 3 seed Kansas
If we move up a seed line, the most likely spot we land is Pittsburgh or Omaha and then Memphis. I think we need to just forget about Indianapolis as a possible early round site.
-Memphis: 1 seed Houston, 2 seed Baylor
-Indianapolis: 1 seed Purdue, 2 seed Marquette (This is the longest shot of any of them)
-Pittsburgh: 3 seed Creighton, 4 seed Alabama (Creighton can't play in Omaha since they're a host)
-Omaha: 3 seed Iowa State, 3 seed Kansas
If we move up a seed line, the most likely spot we land is Pittsburgh or Omaha and then Memphis. I think we need to just forget about Indianapolis as a possible early round site.
I honestly i dont see a path to a 3 seed. Too many good resumes ahead of us. We are 5-6 in quad 1 games and 5-2 in quad 2 games (10-8).
I see KU being dropped to the 4 seed but UK has moved up but our resume is better quad 1 6-5 quad 2 2-2 (8-7 but has quad 3 loss)
Baylor and Creighton have really good resumes. Baylor is quad 1 9-8 and 4-1 quad 2 (13-9). Creighton quad 1 8-5 quad 2 7-3 (15-8). We aren’t catching them
With that said we will be probably the top 4 seed and I believe we should get a good location
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