Bracketology

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#2      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
Looks like the only way we fall to a 3 seed in the BTT is if Northwestern wins at Breslin on Wednesday (regardless of our results).
 
#3      

RabidDawgClassic

RabidDawgClassic
RabidDawgClassic
FIRST!!
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#6      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
Chad Fleck said:
It's worth noting that Illinois is now the second 4 seed on bracket matrix. They were the last 4 seed on the previous update.
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Good catch! Another VERY important reminder to all of those people who might not be "impressed" with our wins or whatever ... we are ONLY judged on a curve. We have to have one of the 12 best resumes (more or less) to get a #3 seed. According to this, we are close! Needless to say that getting two more massive Quad 1 wins this week would probably do the trick!

Here are the teams above us and their games coming up this week (using NET Rankings) for those wishing to root against 'em!

#2 SEEDS
#5 Tennessee - at #47 South Carolina (Q1), vs. #20 Kentucky (Q1)
#9 North Carolina - vs. #125 Notre Dame (Q3), at #10 Duke (Q1)
#14 Marquette - vs. #3 UConn (Q1), at #61 Xavier (Q1)
#8 Iowa State - vs. #12 BYU (Q1), at #73 Kansas State (Q1)

#3 SEEDS
#18 Kansas - vs. #73 Kansas State (Q2), at #1 Houston (Q1)
#13 Baylor - vs. #27 Texas (Q1), at #42 Texas Tech (Q1)
#10 Duke - at #80 NC State (Q2), vs. #9 North Carolina (Q1)
#7 Alabama - at #33 Florida (Q1), vs. #121 Arkansas (Q3)

#4 SEEDS
#11 Creighton - at #26 Villanova (Q1)
#15 ILLINOIS - vs. #2 Purdue (Q1), at #57 Iowa (Q1)
#6 Auburn - at #151 Missouri (Q3), vs. #104 Georgia (Q3)
#19 San Diego State - at #82 UNLV (Q2), vs. #24 Boise State (Q1)

I know the bracket matrix isn't gospel, but let's just assume it's truly where we stand in the eyes of the Committee for the sake of simplicity. These would be some interesting questions that stick out to me:

1. If Creighton wins at Villanova (Quad 1) but we go 2-0, would we jump them? We'd be 24-7, and they would be 23-8. They're currently 4 spots above us in the NET rankings, and we would be at 7 Quad 1 wins vs. their 8. They still have two "marquee" wins (UConn and Marquette) compared to our one (Purdue).

2. How far can Kansas slide?? Their #18 NET Ranking is theoretically in line with a #5 seed. If KU beats KSU at home but loses at Houston, we would be tied with them for Quad 1 wins and one behind them for Quad 2 wins. We'd also have a significantly better road record (6-5 vs. 3-7). If they lose to Kansas State (again), then it's really game on to pass them...

3. I know they are the Committee's darlings, but I would SERIOUSLY have to believe we pass up Duke if we win out and they lose out - something that is a lot more realistic than it sounds at face value. We'd have two more Quad 1 wins, a better overall record, likely a very similar NET Ranking and an equal road/neutral record.
 
#8      

Bbuck21

B
Bbuck21
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Good catch! Another VERY important reminder to all of those people who might not be "impressed" with our wins or whatever ... we are ONLY judged on a curve. We have to have one of the 12 best resumes (more or less) to get a #3 seed. According to this, we are close! Needless to say that getting two more massive Quad 1 wins this week would probably do the trick!

Here are the teams above us and their games coming up this week (using NET Rankings) for those wishing to root against 'em!

#2 SEEDS
#5 Tennessee - at #47 South Carolina (Q1), vs. #20 Kentucky (Q1)
#9 North Carolina - vs. #125 Notre Dame (Q3), at #10 Duke (Q1)
#14 Marquette - vs. #3 UConn (Q1), at #61 Xavier (Q1)
#8 Iowa State - vs. #12 BYU (Q1), at #73 Kansas State (Q1)

#3 SEEDS
#18 Kansas - vs. #73 Kansas State (Q2), at #1 Houston (Q1)
#13 Baylor - vs. #27 Texas (Q1), at #42 Texas Tech (Q1)
#10 Duke - at #80 NC State (Q2), vs. #9 North Carolina (Q1)
#7 Alabama - at #33 Florida (Q1), vs. #121 Arkansas (Q3)

#4 SEEDS
#11 Creighton - at #26 Villanova (Q1)
#15 ILLINOIS - vs. #2 Purdue (Q1), at #57 Iowa (Q1)
#6 Auburn - at #151 Missouri (Q3), vs. #104 Georgia (Q3)
#19 San Diego State - at #82 UNLV (Q2), vs. #24 Boise State (Q1)

I know the bracket matrix isn't gospel, but let's just assume it's truly where we stand in the eyes of the Committee for the sake of simplicity. These would be some interesting questions that stick out to me:

1. If Creighton wins at Villanova (Quad 1) but we go 2-0, would we jump them? We'd be 24-7, and they would be 23-8. They're currently 4 spots above us in the NET rankings, and we would be at 7 Quad 1 wins vs. their 8. They still have two "marquee" wins (UConn and Marquette) compared to our one (Purdue).

2. How far can Kansas slide?? Their #18 NET Ranking is theoretically in line with a #5 seed. If KU beats KSU at home but loses at Houston, we would be tied with them for Quad 1 wins and one behind them for Quad 2 wins. We'd also have a significantly better road record (6-5 vs. 3-7). If they lose to Kansas State (again), then it's really game on to pass them...

3. I know they are the Committee's darlings, but I would SERIOUSLY have to believe we pass up Duke if we win out and they lose out - something that is a lot more realistic than it sounds at face value. We'd have two more Quad 1 wins, a better overall record, likely a very similar NET Ranking and an equal road/neutral record.
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This is what I am curious to see. I don't really care where the Illini end up seeded. I just want Illinois to win every game. Therefore there only 3 teams on this list that I want to see lose: Purdue, Iowa, and, as always, Auburn.
 
#10      

SkyysNotFalling

S
SkyysNotFalling
Nervous about how some of these teams end up… Maryland on the road could turn into a quad 2… Maryland at home could turn into a quad 3…Michigan on the road could turn into a quad 3… Minnesota at home is close to being a quad 2…

Maryland plays Penn state this week… who do we root for?
 
#12      

OnlyOrange

O
Belleville, IL
OnlyOrange
SkyysNotFalling said:
Nervous about how some of these teams end up… Maryland on the road could turn into a quad 2… Maryland at home could turn into a quad 3…Michigan on the road could turn into a quad 3… Minnesota at home is close to being a quad 2…

Maryland plays Penn state this week… who do we root for?
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Maryland - they're closer to moving down, and impact us twice.
 
#13      

Chad Fleck

Chad Fleck
Eureka, IL
Chad Fleck
SkyysNotFalling said:
Nervous about how some of these teams end up… Maryland on the road could turn into a quad 2… Maryland at home could turn into a quad 3…Michigan on the road could turn into a quad 3… Minnesota at home is close to being a quad 2…

Maryland plays Penn state this week… who do we root for?
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Maryland, for sure. Need them to stay in the top 75. Penn State is not near changing. It's a bummer that MD blew it vs. Indiana.
 
#14      

Zorak

Zorak
Naperville
Zorak
Would be really nice if Maryland killed Penn State in Happy Valley on Sunday, and not only because I'm still pissed at the Lions.
 
#17      

mysterio2525

mysterio2525
mysterio2525
Marquette's Tyler kolek missed last game with oblique injury (yikes) and will now miss final 2 regular season games. This could move them down a seed of they drop some games or he doesn't look the same.

Granted we know what he can do when "injured" so this may be just a precaution
 
#18      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
As others have mentioned, this time of year always gets interesting with teams hovering around a certain cutoff in the NET Rankings. Here is the Big Ten:

#2 Purdue: Both our away loss and hopefully our home win are safely Quad 1.
#22 Michigan State: Our home win remains Quad 1 as long as MSU stays in the top 30. Our road loss is safely Quad 1 no matter what.
#23 Wisconsin: Our road win in Madison is safely Quad 1.
#43 Nebraska: Our home win is safely Quad 2, AND (as of right now) Nebraska is a Quad 1 opponent on a neutral floor. Given the current standings, this is relevant to us.
#53 Northwestern: Our road loss is safely Quad 1, and our home win is safely Quad 2. However, if NU were to climb into the top 50, any win vs. them in Minneapolis would be Quad 1, as noted above.
#57 Iowa: At least for now, our home win is safely Quad 2, and what is hopefully a great win in Iowa City to end the year will be Quad 1.
#59 Ohio State: OSU would need to tumble 17 spots for our road win to not be Quad 1.
#74 Maryland: This one is scary. Not only do we want to keep the Quad 1 win in College Park, but we REALLY want to keep our Quad 2 loss in Champaign from becoming Quad 3 ... for both, we need Maryland in the top 75. UMD finishes at Penn State, so I am a little worried here! Be rooting for the Terps hard.
#77 Minnesota: Conversely, our home win vs. Minnesota can go from Quad 3 to Quad 2 if they can sneak into the top 75 by Selection Sunday. They get to play Indiana at home this week, but they finish at Northwestern. It would be really nice for Minnesota to finish 2-0, as NU is really unlikely to fall out of the top 75.
#91 Rutgers: It is very unlikely Rutgers gets back into the top 75, so our win in Piscataway will remain Quad 2, and our win in Champaign will remain Quad 3. However, it would be nice for them to remain in the top 100 so any potential BTT win could be Quad 2.
#94 Penn State: Our road loss is safely Quad 2, but see my comment about Rutgers RE: PSU remaining a Quad 2 opponent in the BTT.
#101 Indiana: Our win vs. them in Champaign will remain Quad 3, but again ... right now a slipup vs. them in the BTT is a BAD loss. It is in our best interests if as many Big Ten teams as possible are in the top 100.
#131 Michigan: Lol, I have lost the energy to type by the time I got all the way down to Juwan's squad! You shouldn't count your victories against Michigan as anything too special, and you should NEVER lose to them ... so their NET Ranking is irrelevant.
 
#22      

illiniswish09

illiniswish09
Northwest Suburbs
illiniswish09
Obviously a lot depends on what other teams do but say we beat Purdue and lose at Iowa…. What do we need to do to be a 3 seed? Get to BTT final?
 
#23      

Illini2010-11

I
Sugar Grove
Illini2010-11
gibb52 said:
Trying to figure out how Wisconsin is still a 5 seed. They've been in free fall for over a month. Head scratcher.
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I think Wisconsin is probably closer to a 6 seed line right now, and very well may fall to the 7 seed line (or worse) when all is said and done. They have been propped up by their SOS and volume of Quad 1 (Marquette, Virginia, @MSU) wins up to this point. This week is very important for them. I still think they are safely in the tourney regardless of how the rest of the year plays out, but they need to beat Rutgers at home on Thursday. If they lose that game and then @Purdue, they would close the regular season at 18-13. If they lose the first round in BTT, then they could easily fall to an 8 or 9 seed if they lose out this week. Quite a remarkable collapse considering how highly ranked they were at the end of January (#6). As a reminder, they were 16-4 at the start of play in February. The thought that they could realistically close the season 2-9 is quite a fall for a team ranked #6 at the beginning of February.

Without a doubt, Wisconsin is trending in the completely wrong direction.
 
#24      

jrichisamazing

J
jrichisamazing
21ChampaignSt said:
It's crazy how similar they are on Kenpom.

AdjO
Alabama: 127.9
Illinois: 126.7

AdjD
Alabama: 102.9
Illinois: 102.9
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Illinois Alabama would be a crazy matchup, but just looking at the top 20ish Kenpom there are a ton of teams that rely on their offense to win games. Obviously not as much as us and Bama, but there are quite a few matchups that could be pushing the high 80's or even 100's....Creighton, Purdue, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Arizona, BYU, etc are all teams willing to play at a fast pace and score 85+.

I wonder if this is just an odd year, or maybe this is the new norm due to the transfer portal? Elite shot makers are going to be the most coveted guys on the transfer market. Almost all these teams have a transfer as one of their best scorers.
 
#25      

NarrowJ

NarrowJ
NarrowJ
mysterio2525 said:
Marquette's Tyler kolek missed last game with oblique injury (yikes) and will now miss final 2 regular season games. This could move them down a seed of they drop some games or he doesn't look the same.

Granted we know what he can do when "injured" so this may be just a precaution
Click to expand...

They also were missing Ighadaro (spelling?) last game. Hopefully they get everyone back soon.
 
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