Illinois 66, Oakland 54 Postgame
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foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Eh. Morez is a freshman and he will have to earn his role but I don't think Tomislav is going to be playing 30+ minutes a night.
I expect Morez to average at least about 15 mins. Maybe if the team is clearly better with Ivisic he will see less in March as Brad shortens the rotation but not many 7 footers play 30+ minutes a game and I'd argue it's probably best to not ride Ivisic that hard during the regular season.
That's just how every defense works though. Analytics says every shot should be around the basket or a three.
Every defense wants to limit teams to tough mid range jumpers.
Also, if a team can play 5 out then it makes it extremely difficult to limit both open 3s and the driving lanes because of how well the floor is spaced.
I guess we'll see. I expect Tomi will get about 28-30 minutes a night. Leaving 10-12 minutes to be split between Morez, Booth, or Ben if we go small.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I, for one, enjoy Bardo as an analyst. Never understood why so many people are against him.
Spot on. He is knowledgeable about the Big 10. And I much prefer him over some of his more polished compatriots who do not have his insight. He has played the game at a high level and brings an expertise that few of us have experienced.
I have always liked him. I like the fact that he is a straight shooter.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
Tre's historical TOV% (12.5% as freshman at USC and 13.8% at Louisville) is much more reasonable than we've seen in the first three games. At this point I'll attribute it mainly to small sample size and correctable errors (e.g., keep the ball moving more and be more purposeful when he does put it on the deck) as he settles to new role in new system on a new team, but we will see.
If we're making the comparison, Ty was the highest of the rotation players at 18.1% TOV% last season, reflecting in part the PG experiment (though he was even higher at 20% as a freshman).
I understand analytics. My degrees revolve around analytics. My living revolves around analytics. I won national championships with analytics in another sport. I coached national champions with analytics.
I'm not saying we need radical change, maybe just a tweak. Game theory suggests having 3 levels of scoring is better than 2, because both teams have access to the same analytics and adjust strategies accordingly. In that situation, more options is better. I don't believe that's a controversial statement.
I don't think we can sugarcoat this one - we were bad
Oakland lost by 43 points to Boise St. and 44 to Michigan in their exhibition. They may have stepped up and played harder/ better against us, but we really do not have an excuse. Almost all of our 18 turnovers were unforced, it was not because of their "unusual zone" I think that is coach speak wanting to cover up his teams really poor play to the media. We just simply have to execute better and take better shots - for some reason we settled for a lot of mid-range floaters, rather than getting to the rim or shooting threes which are higher efficiency shots
Oakland lost by 43 points to Boise St. and 44 to Michigan in their exhibition. They may have stepped up and played harder/ better against us, but we really do not have an excuse. Almost all of our 18 turnovers were unforced, it was not because of their "unusual zone" I think that is coach speak wanting to cover up his teams really poor play to the media. We just simply have to execute better and take better shots - for some reason we settled for a lot of mid-range floaters, rather than getting to the rim or shooting threes which are higher efficiency shots
Something tells me Underwood schedules Oakland every year for a reason…. Good to see us find a way in a rock fight.
I hate to say it but Bardo is the worst. Seems like a great guy, but man he’s cringy.
I hate to say it but Bardo is the worst. Seems like a great guy, but man he’s cringy.
I agree about Rez’s minutes going forward…. thought this would have been more of a Rez game because you aren’t spacing the floor against a zone no matter what, might as well have a guy who catches the ball exclusively 12’ and in. Want to get him some reps catching the ball and at the ft line. Cuz he is going to get fouled a bunch. Excited to see more of what he can do defensively; Tomi still struggling a little with physicality on the block and in situations where he’s one on one off the bounce - goes to the arm bar too early and stops moving his feet.
That’s hilarious. I’d tend to agree with the Baron Von Strudelmeister though…they really are better.My thought too, potentially. Big shoes, etc...
I think it’ll depend on matchups. We needed Tomi tonight against their zone. He was our most effective player against it with his little 8-10 foot push shots.
We will likely have matchups this year that call for more athleticism/defense/rebounding in which case Morez will get more minutes than he had tonight.
That’s what’s so fun about this team is there are zero redundant pieces. Everybody brings something different. It’s all about figuring out how to fit the pieces together and push the right buttons at the right times.
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
JMO
1. Tomas is playing like 5 star. Great get by Geoff A. and Brad. Suprisingly good passer. Kofi was a monster but passing and shot blocking were not his strengths.
2. KJ is adjusting to more physical style of play and faster competition. We saw Caitlin Clark experience this in 1H of WNBA stadium but she adjusted and by 2H had eliminated a lot of the turnovers. KJ just needs to be more careful with ball.
3. Riley is the real deal. Deadeye shooter. Can create his own shot. Really pumped to see him commit to defense vs Georgetown. He has good quickness and length. Unless Tre really steps up Riley will force his way into starting lineup.
4. DGL looked great on defense and rebounding. Spark plug on offense. He should be able to give Kylan and KJ more rest. JMO- Brad play him more so others are more rested.
5. Morez is a beast on the boards. Definitely doing great job backing up Tomas.
6. Humrichous showed his 3 point shooting ability yesterday. He also used his height on defense and boards. Really glad we brought him in.
7. White has more offensive ability than Ty but needs to become beast on defense and rebounding. Otherwise it may not turn out to be good trade.
8. Boswell showed he is best defender on team. I think he will be able to shut down hot shooters. Not as tall as TSJ but the strength and desire is there.
9. Booth has length but has not shown much defense or rebounding. He looks raw on offense. If he wants playing time he is going to have to step it up.
10. Would like to see Jake play a little.
11. Great job in roster construction by Brad and staff. Basically replaced entire elite 8 team. The portal has changed everything. Sad for Ty but he has to develop an outside shot or he won't be more than role player anywhere in P5. Luke, Sencire, Dain and Amani got recruited over. Sad to see them go but they all would have struggled for playing time with new 5 out offense.
1. Tomas is playing like 5 star. Great get by Geoff A. and Brad. Suprisingly good passer. Kofi was a monster but passing and shot blocking were not his strengths.
2. KJ is adjusting to more physical style of play and faster competition. We saw Caitlin Clark experience this in 1H of WNBA stadium but she adjusted and by 2H had eliminated a lot of the turnovers. KJ just needs to be more careful with ball.
3. Riley is the real deal. Deadeye shooter. Can create his own shot. Really pumped to see him commit to defense vs Georgetown. He has good quickness and length. Unless Tre really steps up Riley will force his way into starting lineup.
4. DGL looked great on defense and rebounding. Spark plug on offense. He should be able to give Kylan and KJ more rest. JMO- Brad play him more so others are more rested.
5. Morez is a beast on the boards. Definitely doing great job backing up Tomas.
6. Humrichous showed his 3 point shooting ability yesterday. He also used his height on defense and boards. Really glad we brought him in.
7. White has more offensive ability than Ty but needs to become beast on defense and rebounding. Otherwise it may not turn out to be good trade.
8. Boswell showed he is best defender on team. I think he will be able to shut down hot shooters. Not as tall as TSJ but the strength and desire is there.
9. Booth has length but has not shown much defense or rebounding. He looks raw on offense. If he wants playing time he is going to have to step it up.
10. Would like to see Jake play a little.
11. Great job in roster construction by Brad and staff. Basically replaced entire elite 8 team. The portal has changed everything. Sad for Ty but he has to develop an outside shot or he won't be more than role player anywhere in P5. Luke, Sencire, Dain and Amani got recruited over. Sad to see them go but they all would have struggled for playing time with new 5 out offense.
So one important thing to note here, is that going to NET has created a significant shift to what is statistically optimal when it comes to scheduling and while I unfortunately don't have inner knowledge of the NET iterative formulas, just based off of empirical data the past few years, it appears Brad has the correct approach at least statistically speaking. So what is my reasoning for this? Well I'll try to be as brief as I can
Years ago, when SOS and RPI were the primarily tools of the selection committee, basically the really bad noncon teams on your schedule were millstones around your neck (this makes sense as almost all teams you play in conference are above .500 teams whose bulk of their schedules are against .500 teams). As such, because each game was equal weight, the worst teams you played served as outliers that absolutely tanked your SOS and RPI such that playing 300+ ranked teams was a no win situation.
On a somewhat similar note, when it came to efficiency based iterative systems like Kenpom (the one I am more intimately familiar with), Ken had to make a decision on how to deal with blowout games and runaway scores. The choice was to either to use unaltered efficiency stats (think margin of victory for the purpose of this explanation as it's a bit easier to wrap ones mind around) however this would actually result in blowouts being outliers for efficiency and as such would actually mean those games have higher relative weight than other games played on the schedule. Or he could limit and damp efficiency for high margin of victory games. He ultimately decided to damp where basically winning by more than about 30pts starts having extreme diminishing returns where say winning by 70 will have almost the exact same efficiency as winning by 40. Why? Because after a team is up by over 30, score effects start taking place- coaches empty benches, play style changes, etc. etc. As such again, playing 300+ ranked teams served basically no net benefit as since you were already expected to beat them by 30pts and you were capped at beating them at about 30pts, playing them couldn't improve your efficiency ratings, but they certainly could nuke them if you only won by say 10-15. In fact this was a known "issue" and it's why teams tried doing whatever they could to not schedule these type of games as scheduling a team ranked in the 225-275 range probability wise has just about the same likelihood of blowout without the negative effects.
Ok, so what's different with NET? While they've never released their actual formula (don't get me started), which in my opinion is fairly ridiculous in its non-transparency for the NCAA approved metric that the postseason is supposed to be on, from empirical evidence, one thing seems very clear, and it's that those scoring limiters are either not included or severely needed meaning that margin of victory has a much much much higher role in ranking than it used to.
Hence, in NET, clownstomping the worst team in college basketball by 60pts is worth way more than beating a 250th ranked team by 20. So while strategy used to be avoid 300+ ranked teams like the plague, NET actually encourages playing them and running up the score and then similarly, playing top 25 teams in the rest of your non-con to bolster opponent efficiency numbers while not having to worry about a non Q1 loss in the non-con.
TLDR: In summary, Brad was advised well in the NET era of how to schedule, and it is a departure from what we knew as fact even a few years ago. Also, NET is complete and utter trash, and the reason they don't release their formulas is so they can still adjust them behind the scenes and such that the stats community doesn't laugh it out of existence
Looks like we did make shots we didn't take !Wasn't able to watch the game but was surprised at our amazing shot/FT percentages??
I-L-L!
InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
I don’t have any of your credentials, but you seem to be saying that the addition of a lower value to two higher values raises the mean…
Me:
Yes lol...I thought it was initially Tomi's bottle but it turned out to be Kylan's bottle. Maybe they're just comfortable enough with one another like friends would be drinking out of the same liquor bottle
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