I was told in a company meeting that almost half of white collar jobs will be replaced by AI by 2030. This was information sent directly from Microsoft. This is what's being sold to executives and they love it. They are replacing RNs for $9/hr virtual "AI" nurses and say they can have classrooms with over 200 kids where a tablet with AI will teach your kids with one teacher (or help desk person) overseeing everything.
There are already several career spaces that are being obliterated by AI. Especially artistic and media production work.
Source: I'm in cloud IT and deal/work with AI often.
I'm not buying that timeline. Add another 5-10 years and I might believe it.
AI's are good at collating and formatting data quickly. e.g. generating the first draft for a presentation. They make mistakes in sequencing and details. e.g. Lots of AI art has 6 finger hands for some reason. If you want good work, a human has to iterate multiple times to refine the results, and then do a bit of final cleanup.
AIs are poor teachers in general. They are great sources of information. It isn't the same thing. Teaching requires presenting the information in the way the student learns, not as you organize things. A good teacher flips between multiple learning modes based on the question asked, and who asked the question. e.g. I know Little Johnny learns best from bottom up answers. The mixture of learning modes is what makes teaching in a classroom much harder than teaching an individual -- even assuming everyone there wants to learn and is behaved.
The theory of N students and 1 instructor has been a pipe-dream since the late 60s. Computer based instruction (CBI) is great for allowing students to go at their own pace. The students still have lots of questions. Sometimes they misread something and get stuck. Sometimes they don't understand the presentation. Sometimes they want to explore hypotheticals, either for fun or to further their understanding. e.g. Does this mean that ... You need enough people to answer their questions. You need people who can figure out why the student is stuck. (Computers fail at this.)
I expect AI to make quick inroads and be a very valuable time savers. For example, art studios are using AIs to quickly iterate through rough ideas. This saves a lot of time, and allows exploring more options than you could with an artist. The cost of trying something and throwing it away is a minute. Some studios then use the AI art. Others, who want higher quality results, give the AI generated art, and instructions to an artist. The artist creates the drawing from scratch using the AI art as a sort of template.
Source: I spent decades in hi-tech, including some AI work, and a lot of teaching. I've worked at places specializing in CBI.
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