Illinois #21 in 12/3 CFB Playoff Rankings

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#101      
Ill in Cols
With all this discussion of Ole Miss, Ala, and the Cocks, no one has mentioned what would very likely make the decision at this time of year much easier. The SEC should play 9 conference games. To its credit, Bama did schedule a potentially tough team in Wisky, but SC and Miss each played 4 cupcakes. Heck, SC beat Old Dominion 23 - 19 at home. Replacing one cupcake for each of those with an almighty SEC conference game may well have pushed both to a 4 loss season.
 
#103      
Bucktown
aaeismacgychel said:
As for the "Man if only we were 10-2" vs. "We're really a 6-6 team who got lucky, just be happy with 9-3", I'd say as with anything, there's nothing wrong with dreaming and wanting a little more doesn't mean you aren't happy with what you have. Imagine winning $100,000 in the lottery, you'd be stoked, but had you just gotten that 1 more number that was 1 digit off, you'd have won over a million. It's ok to be like, man I was thiiiiiis close to winning a million. And yeah, we had some luck this year, we had some statistically improbable clutch plays and performance in OT and single possession games, but let's all enjoy the season we had, it truly was one of the most amazing things any of us has witnessed as fans.

I also do think the "where would we be if we had just beat Minnesota" question is a fair one, and so I'll answer it in a historical context. Historically 10-2 teams from a major conference make the CFP a good 84% of the time, however, of those 16% who missed due to a 3 loss team being selected over them, they all had one thing in common and that's that they had no CFP end of season Top 25 win whereas 3 loss teams did (and in most cases 1 was on the road). As such, even if we were 10-2 with losses to only Oregon and PSU, I'd still project us to fall right outside the playoff, either 1st or 2nd team out. Beating PSU and losing to Minnesota though? I'd have us as a lock to make the CFP.
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I think we'd be very very close and maybe even in at #11 rankings #12 seed. I know the AP rankings are not the same, but they have mirrored the CFP rankings fairly closely. We were 23rd when we played Minnesota and would moved up with a win. Then we had three more wins. We were ahead of South Carolina & Arizona State at that time and Alabama and Ole Miss have lost since then. Clemson, Miami & BYU have lost twice and Colorado has lost once since then. With us sitting at 10-2 and the only losses to the #1 & #3 teams both on the road, the whole argument between the 9-3 SEC teams might be moot.
 
#104      
aaeismacgychel
Bucktown said:
I think we'd be very very close and maybe even in at #11 rankings #12 seed. I know the AP rankings are not the same, but they have mirrored the CFP rankings fairly closely. We were 23rd when we played Minnesota and would moved up with a win. Then we had three more wins. We were ahead of South Carolina & Arizona State at that time and Alabama and Ole Miss have lost since then. Clemson, Miami & BYU have lost twice and Colorado has lost once since then. With us sitting at 10-2 and the only losses to the #1 & #3 teams both on the road, the whole argument between the 9-3 SEC teams might be moot.
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I think this is a fair argument and the one both Bret and us fans would be making though it is very important to note that CFP rankings do not align with AP voting. Our 2 losses would be of ridiculous quality- both of those teams have a combined 2 losses, each to other Top 10 CFP teams away from home. We beat everyone else including teams better than the quality Alabama and Ole Miss lost to. But, historically there is decently strong precedent for putting 3 loss teams with high quality road wins over 2 loss teams without a quality win. So I think a 10-2 Illinois would have had strong argument for just making the CFP cut, but objectively, I think if they would have been the case, we would fall just short based on historical precedent. We'll never know of course, but how the CFP treats South Carolina, Alabama, and Ole Miss versus Miami will be somewhat telling.
 
#105      
MaineIllini
pruman91 said:
I respect all the different opinions already in this thread , and they seem well thought out........But , we DID go 9-3 and all the " what if's " are only that..........Reality has to be opined and the " what if's " don't do anything to change said reality.........

We just had one of the best regular season's in our last 25 + years and I am going to enjoy it and bask in the warm glow that the IIllini are on the rise in other people's minds across the college FB landscape................The same ole " it could have been a 6-6 record will NOT take away any joy from this old man's heart.........................

It's been a great and exciting season .........................Nothing more , nothing less........................The constant tearing down of each game and bringing hypotheticals into play is another trip down the " Illinois just being Illinois negative view " and it should be retired forever and replaced by " what a new beginning and positive season records being the routine " point of view........

JMHO and in no way am I disrespecting any different opinion than mine .......I'm really really not.......................
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Pru said it better than I can. I would simply add that, from a fan enjoyment experience, the great execution of the re-dedication game, including the throwback uniforms, special helmets, first-rate CBS national broadcast, and beating Michigan, all make a wonderful “icing on the cake” of this 9-3 regular season, for me.
 
#106      
LJ22
Nothing to prove that we'd have taken care of MSU, Rutgers, and NW if we'd beaten Minnesota.

As much as I still loath Matt Sylvester, I think him hitting the 3 to hand us our first basketball loss of the 04-05 season was the necessary kick for us to go all the way to St. Louis.
 
#107      
OrangeBlue98
And on a side note, I'm REALLY hoping South Carolina is the opponent. One of my good friends from college at Illinois worked at South Carolina for a number of years and has a lot of fond memories of his time in Columbia. When I got married, our ties were South Carolina colors and I told him he hit the jackpot getting to wear his "second team's" colors as part of my wedding party. :) I spent an early-season baseball weekend there in the early 2010s and had a great time watching the Gamecocks and hanging out on the South Carolina campus when the games were done.
 
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#108      
Vinegarben
I am hoping during the layoff until the Bowl game the Coaches and players watch game film and address the massive holes in the secondary and realize the opponents know exactly what the offense will do on 3rd down because they run the same play game after game after game [right up the middle] I am guessing Laughery can get to the outside with his speed if they pitch it to him. It would be a miracle if the defense could FINALLY STOP somebody on 3rd and long!!
 
#113      
Scoregasm
Ha.....above Colorado
Suck It Schitts Creek GIF by CBC
 
#115      
aaeismacgychel
Dan said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1864102045050978532
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Wow... Well forget what I said earlier about the committee likely following historical precedent, hell, they straight up defy logic. These rankings are just completely wack for a CFP. They look more like someone's AP ballot... All I can say is the name on the front of the jersey means more than record or resume, because that's what the committee did.

Field is pretty much set now no matter what happens. It'll be:

Oregon
Texas
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Indiana
Tennessee
Georgia
SMU/Clemson winner
ASU/ISU winner
Boise State/UNLV winner
Alabama last team in

Miami first team out.
Ole Miss 2nd team out
South Carolina 3rd team out
 
#123      
Navy_illini
DeonThomas said:
As Rece Davis said during the show tonight, "It's something they need to fix really fast -- i.e. in 2025."
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Get rid of conference championship games. Unless you make conferences have divisions.

Take for example Tennessee they played UGA and Bama. Went 1-1. No Ole Miss or Texas

Missouri only played Bama and South Carolina. No UGA Texas Ole Miss

IU only played O$U. No PSU Oregon.


Conferences are not able to determine their best teams. Which allows people to say they deserve to be in

BSU played Oregon and will have to beat UNLV twice. They also played WSU and Oregon State. It isn’t a complete cupcake schedule
 
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