Week of 12/30 Games & News Thread

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#76      
NarrowJ
It's difficult to use transitive math with regard to single game outcomes. Michigan State also lost to Memphis, who is worse than Arkansas, Missouri and Northwestern.

The answer is likely that all of them are pretty damn good. There are only a couple teams in the entire league that I would not be able to say are 'good' teams.
 
#77      
21ChampaignSt
NarrowJ said:
It's difficult to use transitive math with regard to single game outcomes. Michigan State also lost to Memphis, who is worse than Arkansas, Missouri and Northwestern.

The answer is likely that all of them are pretty damn good. There are only a couple teams in the entire league that I would not be able to say are 'good' teams.
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Is this a reply to my above comment? It's not the transitive property.

Transitive property would be like "We beat Missouri and Missouri beat Kansas, therefore we're better than Kansas".

My point is, according to Torvik and KenPom, MSU's win over Nebraska is better than any of our wins. So to say MSU isn't any good because they haven't beaten anyone would also be an indictment on us.
 
#80      
fatboyslim
Yes Kenpom, the end all be all like Sleepers. Ken Pom and Sleepers are the two most reliable sources on this forum by far. :rolleyes:
 
#81      
NarrowJ
21ChampaignSt said:
Is this a reply to my above comment? It's not the transitive property.

Transitive property would be like "We beat Missouri and Missouri beat Kansas, therefore we're better than Kansas".

My point is, according to Torvik and KenPom, MSU's win over Nebraska is better than any of our wins. So to say MSU isn't any good because they haven't beaten anyone would also be an indictment on us.
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I didn't quote you, so no. I did use the 3 teams from your transitive analysis, but I admit I didn't include your quote directly (just so as to hopefully avoid another interaction with you).

However, yes... that's exactly what you were doing: saying that since MSU beat Nebraska by 37, and they are 'better than' 3 teams we played, for folks to draw a conclusion from that.
 
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#82      
Piotyr
It's a new year, and the bulk of the conference season is about to start, so here are my current thoughts on the state of the B1G basketball season (aka Power Rankings):

Tier 1: Favorites

1. UCLA (11-2, 2-0) - NET: 15, KP: 13, BT: 12, WAB: 17 - They get the nod here due to their win at Oregon, which gives them a clear leg up in the conference race. Good non-con resume, good numbers across the board. Top 5 here are largely interchangeable overall, and plenty to sort out over the next two months.
2. Michigan (10-3, 2-0) - NET: 14, KP: 10, BT: 10, WAB: 40 - Road win at Wisconsin, non-con a little light on victories, but good metrics overall.
3. Oregon (12-1, 1-1) - NET: 12, KP: 12, BT: 15, WAB: 2 - Best non-conference resume by far. Would be #1 if they won the UCLA game. Did get a road win at USC. Another big home game coming up tomorrow for them, would really hurt them in conference race if they dropped two early home games.
4. Illinois (9-3, 1-1) - NET: 11, KP: 18, BT: 11, WAB: 37 - Played one of their better games of the year vs Tennessee, shame they came up short or their non-con would look a ton better right now. Blowing the NW game really hurts as well, but that's what a young team does early in the season. Big opportunity on the road tomorrow to cement their stance as favorites.
5. Maryland (11-2, 1-1) - NET: 13, KP: 17, BT: 16, WAB: 52 - Close loss to Marquette hurts, as it ended up being the only team of substance they played in non-conference (non-con SOS was 363, second worst in nation). Good metrics, they've looked good against teams they should beat, couldn't pull out a win at Purdue but are still in this tier for now.

Tier 2: Tournament teams

6. Michigan State (11-2, 2-0) - NET: 26, KP: 20, BT: 26, WAB: 23 - They looked like world-beaters against Nebraska, and have a couple of Q2 wins in non-conference, but they haven't looked great otherwise. Played a couple Q4 games rather dangerously and laid an egg against a so-so Memphis team. Road conference win was against Minnesota, which only barely counts.
7. Purdue (8-4, 1-1) - NET: 38, KP: 27, BT: 28, WAB: 20 - Trending the wrong direction here, and metrics are getting a bit dicey. 3 Q1 wins already though, and that Alabama win is only going to look better later. Already have 3 losses of 10+ points, which is tanking the metrics.
8. Wisconsin (10-3, 0-2) - NET: 32, KP: 31, BT: 29, WAB: 21 - Toughest opening conference schedule in the league puts them in an early hole, but their overall results are good enough to keep them safely in tournament discussion, including wins against Arizona and Pitt.
9. Nebraska (11-2, 1-1) - NET: 41, KP: 37, BT: 31, WAB: 25 - Laid a huge egg against MSU, but won at Creighton (which is looking less impressive than it did at the time), and won a holiday tournament against Q2 teams which will help keep the resume respectable if they can continue to split B1G games.
10. Ohio State (9-4, 1-1) - NET: 22, KP: 28, BT: 40, WAB: 43 - Weirdest team in the league so far, looked great against Kentucky, beat Texas, and laid two absolute eggs against Maryland and Auburn. Three losses by 10+ points, offset slightly by a 20 point win over Kentucky. Still think they're safely in the field as of right now.

Tier 3: Bubble teams

11. Penn State (11-2, 1-1) - NET: 35, KP: 38, BT: 43, WAB: 59 - No bad losses, good win against Purdue at home, close loss to Clemson, which is the only Q1 game they've played. Non-con schedule is as soft as Maryland's, so there'll be plenty of opportunities in conference to play their way into the field, but they won't get an automatic boost from their past schedule.
12. Iowa (10-3, 1-1) - NET: 49, KP: 44, BT: 34, WAB: 54 - One point buzzer beat win at home vs Northwestern is their best win so far this year. No bad losses, no real bad efforts so far this year, which keeps them here.
13. Northwestern (10-3, 1-1) - NET: 47, KP: 45, BT: 38, WAB: 51 - OT win over Illinois so far is their only Q1 or Q2 win. Losses to Dayton, Butler and Iowa. No terrible losses despite close calls against Eastern Illinois and Montana State. Probably outside looking in now but they can play their way into a spot.

Tier 4: NCAA Tournament? One of these teams won't even make the B1G tournament!

14. Indiana (10-3, 1-1) - NET: 68, KP: 56, BT: 58, WAB: 64 - The most talented team in the conference, everyone! I think their best, and only Q1+Q2 win, is a neutral site win over Providence. They lost by nearly 30 to Louisville. In 13 games, they've looked decent twice, once against South Carolina and against Providence coming off two beat downs against Louisville and Gonzaga. Could they still flip a switch with their talent and make a run? Sure, but they haven't done anything of the sort yet.
15. Rutgers (8-5, 1-1) - NET: 80, KP: 75, BT: 80, WAB: 104 - Somehow started the season in the top 25, they've never looked like a good team. Sure, Dylan Harper is good, but one player does not make a team, as it turns out. Played a road game at Kennesaw State and lost, which is probably the worst loss from anyone in the conference thus far. Best effort this season was either a 4 point home win over PSU, or a 5 point loss to Alabama.
16. USC (9-4, 1-1) - NET: 95, KP: 83, BT: 71, WAB: 103 - They did issue a beatdown to Washington on the road. Didn't look good in any game until the last 4 they've played which showed signs of life. Home loss to Cal is in the running for worst loss in the conference thus far.

Tier 5: Hate to say the season is over before it starts, but any loss to these teams is a bad loss.

17. Washington (9-4, 0-2) - NET: 106, KP: 100, BT: 112, WAB: 86 - Actually had a decent showing against Wazzu, sandwiched between two awful home efforts against USC and Seattle U (another one in the running for worst loss by any team in the conference). Could sneak up and steal a few wins if they put in the Wazzu effort somewhere else, but if you want to win the B1G you shouldn't lose to them.
18. Minnesota (8-5, 0-2) - NET: 153, KP: 108, BT: 125, WAB: 158 - Somehow worse than anyone thought they'd be, and before the season people thought they'd be the worst team in the league. It feels like they should be better with the players they have, but they haven't even put in maybe a B effort in any game this season. Maybe their opener against Q4 Oral Roberts, where they won by 23. Since then it's been nothing but close wins against bad teams and losses against anyone of merit. I'd be surprised if they made the B1G tournament at this point.

All of this can change around easily at this point, since conference play is just starting. From Illinois' perspective, this weekend is huge for their resume, as they could get a big Q1 victory, or take a bad Q3 loss.
 
#83      
21ChampaignSt
NarrowJ said:
I didn't quote you, so no. I did use the 3 teams from your transitive analysis, but I admit I didn't include your quote directly (just so as to hopefully avoid another interaction with you).

However, yes... that's exactly what you were getting at: that since MSU beat Nebraska by 37, and they are better than 3 teams we played, that they must be better than us.
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It's decidedly not the transitive property. You're misunderstanding my point (and / or the transitive property). I'll try again. If your position is that MSU hasn't beaten anybody, then you must also concede that Illinois hasn't beaten anybody because according to KenPom and Torvik, MSU's best win is slightly better than ours.

I also didn't say (or even insuate) that they are better than us. It's my opinion that they are good and we're as good or better. That opinion is backed by Torvik, KenPom, NET, et al.
 
#84      
NarrowJ
21ChampaignSt said:
It's decidedly not the transitive property. You're misunderstanding my point (and / or the transitive property). I'll try again. If your position is that MSU hasn't beaten anybody, then you must also concede that Illinois hasn't beaten anybody because according to KenPom and Torvik, MSU's best win is slightly better than ours.

I also didn't say (or even insuate) that they are better than us. It's my opinion that they are good and we're as good or better. That opinion is backed by Torvik, KenPom, NET, et al.
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Don't be so pedantic. Agree to disagree. I'm not getting into another back-and-forth over some minor detail you must be absolutely correct about.

My position was that everybody in the league aside from a couple teams are pretty good (I already stated exactly that in a very clear and concise manner, but you apparently read through it while concentrating on whether your analysis was transitive in nature - which it was, but that's beside the point).
 
#87      
NarrowJ
Old Farm Illini said:
Memphis is ranked higher than all 3 on kenpom, and ranked higher than Missouri and NU with the NET rankings.
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I used Torvik 🤷‍♂️

Anyhow, again so we don't get all off-topic here a second time, my position was simply that it doesn't make sense to compare teams based on single game outcomes.
 
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#90      
Piotyr
The real question is, who is the second best team in the ACC this season? It's Duke, then an endless gulf, then...Pitt? Clemson? Louisville? UNC still?
 
#93      
illinifan1987
NarrowJ said:
Don't be so pedantic. Agree to disagree. I'm not getting into another back-and-forth over some minor detail you must be absolutely correct about.

My position was that everybody in the league aside from a couple teams are pretty good (I already stated exactly that in a very clear and concise manner, but you apparently read through it while concentrating on whether your analysis was transitive in nature - which it was, but that's beside the point).
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Rick And Morty GIF by Adult Swim
 
#94      
Piotyr
Since I said my opinions on the B1G, here's what I think about the rest of men's college basketball:

1. SEC is the best league by a significant bit, but only half the teams that are currently ranked are actually good. Similar to SEC football, the rest of the league rides the coattails of the actual elite teams: Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida.
2. The B1G and B12 are second and third, and between those three leagues, it could account for 30 of the 36 at-large bids, it's that crazy this year. (No joke, if you look at Torvik's projections for end of year, it has those 3 leagues taking 31 of 36 at-large bids based on end of year records).
3. There just aren't that many at-large worthy teams outside the big 5 leagues this year. Gonzaga, Utah State, Memphis, San Diego State and Dayton are really the only feasible ones, and 3 of those might only be the case if they get the auto bid. There's that much separation between the big 3 leagues and everyone else right now.
4. The ACC is extremely bad for a top 5 league, but still significantly better than the 6th best league (WCC). Duke might just sweep the league, and there's a definite chance the only surefire tournament team they play the next 2 months is Illinois.
5. The Big East has 3 good teams, and though UConn is one of them, they aren't the UConn of last year. Maybe they flip a switch in March, but for now they're a borderline top 20 team. DePaul is probably not the worst team in the Big East this year, but they haven't looked good in a month, and they're closer to the bottom than the top in a very thin league.
 
#99      
OrangeBlue98
Heisenbobble said:
No way Davis survives this season. I wonder who Carolina turns to next? Any insiders with speculation?
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Is there anyone else from the Carolina family available and ready, or is this the time they finally move on from the Dean Smith tree?

(These early flight mornings stink, by the way!)
 
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