Desperately need to step up and get two wins this week ... this will change, but as of now these are two Quad 1 opportunities. If we are all going to bed on Sunday night and the Illini are 16-6 overall, 8-4 in the Big Ten and 6-5 in Quad 1 games ... hell, that would certainly make up for the two home losses for me!
While the defensive effort absolutely has to be there (defense travels, after all!), this team REALLY needs to start maintaining a higher level of scoring. This is only against "major conference" opponents this season:
Wins: 89.3 PPG vs. 72.9 PAPG
Losses: 72.0 PPG vs. 81.6 PAPG
So in our losses, we are giving up almost 9 more points per game ... but we are SCORING more than 17 fewer points per game. And here is how we shot so far this year in those games, with wins in orange and losses in blue. I also included today's AP rankings as some sort of context:
FIELD GOALS
57.5% at #16 Oregon
52.6% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
47.0% at Washington
46.5% in average win
45.1% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
44.6% vs. Northwestern
44.2% vs. Penn State
43.9% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
42.9% in average game
42.4% at #7 Michigan State
42.2% vs. #17 Wisconsin
40.0% at Indiana
38.2% in average loss
37.7% vs. Maryland
37.3% at Northwestern
37.1% vs. USC
29.4% vs. #8 Tennessee
THREE-POINTERS
55.2% at #16 Oregon
48.4% vs. Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
34.8% in average win (obviously driven up by Oregon!)
34.4% at Indiana
33.3% vs. #4 Alabama (Birmingham, AL)
32.3% vs. Penn State
30.8% vs. #20 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
30.3% vs. #17 Wisconsin
30.0% in average game
28.1% vs. Northwestern
26.5% at Northwestern
23.6% in average loss
21.9% vs. USC
21.4% vs. Maryland
20.8% at #7 Michigan State
19.2% at Washington
17.4% vs. #8 Tennessee
So a couple takeaways...
- While you get some more variation with the 3-point shooting (e.g., we shot terribly at Washington but grinded out a win), the overall shooting is pretty clear. If this squad can make over 40% of its field goals, we will be very difficult to beat. I still haven't figured out that November Alabama game, and it doesn't really fit into my picture of this team, good or bad. However, other than that our only loss when shooting above 40% is at Michigan State. And on that note...
- The numbers reinforce what a ridiculously unlucky loss that was in East Lansing. If we make ONE more 3-pointer and shoot slightly worse than we did in the atrocious OT loss at Northwestern, we win. This says nothing of missed layups, KJ out with ridiculous foul trouble, the technical, etc. SO many unforced errors, and we lost by two. Super frustrating.
- As we all probably expected, the Oregon and Arkansas games indeed stand out as good representations of this team's ceiling. We played great basketball in practically every aspect.
- The NU home win yesterday serves as a good reminder to this team that it doesn't have to come via the three! We shot below our average from three, but we shot above our average overall. If the threes aren't falling ... go inside!!
- It is truly astounding that we were so close to knocking off Tennessee. Our offensive performance that game was just abysmal - last in both categories above. Looking back, I am pretty proud of the defense and the effort in that one, and I am less frustrated with the loss (other than the "so close!" aspect, of course).
TL;DR for Nebraska
While we obviously need to be mentally focused and bring appropriate effort on the defensive end, I am now more convinced than ever that this team really just needs to hit BASIC open shots to get back on track. When we turn in even serviceable shooting performances, we are damn good. As quoted above, we are 8-2 vs. major conference opponents when we shoot over 40% from the field; the only two losses were to Alabama way back in November and the utterly frustrating screw job at Michigan State. That's it. Don't miss layups, hit even a C minus-level of 3-pointers, bring effort, and not many teams will beat us. And at this level ... I would contend that missing wide open shots and/or layups with a large enough sample size is more mental than anything else. FOCUS, and bring home a big road win!!
#18 Illinois 83
Nebraska 70
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