If I had to guess, he would be a 6th or 7th man next year. I think they are going to add two starters to go along with Morez Ivisic and Kylan
Illini Basketball 2024-2025
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That seems to be the rule these days. If you get the guarantee, you move on. 2nd rounders, especially borderline guys I would expect to have a much tougher decision. I assume there is a lot of back-channel info that players in his position get as it gets closer to the draft, as well as info on the Illinois side so he can make his best decision.
I imagine he'd benefit quite a bit from another year of physical development and playing in college, but as people say all the time, the draft is about potential.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I posted a version of this in the UCLA postgame thread, but while there are a lot of ways to divide up this team's chances of winning (when we have a full team, when we shoot above a certain percentage, when we have fewer than X turnovers, etc.), nothing tells a story like this...
ILLIN RECORD BY POINTS SCORED
79 or Fewer: 1-7
80 or More: 16-1
We score more when the effort is there, we are hustling for rebounds and we aren't settling for dumb threes. We haven't lost a game where we scored at least 80 since November 20th vs. Alabama, so that means we are on a 14-game winning streak when we score 80 or more.
It's also worth noting that of the 7 losses where we had fewer than 80 points, 4 of them occurred in a 2-4 stretch from January 11th to January 30th where we were without KJ or Ivisic for a majority of minutes in all but one of those games. Even with the bizarre dud of a performance at Rutgers, since we got the full team back, we are 3-1, averaging 84.5 points per game and have outscored our opponents by an average margin of 6.25 points per game. Take out Rutgers, and we're averaging 88.3 PPG and have an average victory margin of 11.3 points. Let's hope this is us back on track, and we can expect this from now on!!
ILLIN RECORD BY POINTS SCORED
79 or Fewer: 1-7
80 or More: 16-1
We score more when the effort is there, we are hustling for rebounds and we aren't settling for dumb threes. We haven't lost a game where we scored at least 80 since November 20th vs. Alabama, so that means we are on a 14-game winning streak when we score 80 or more.
It's also worth noting that of the 7 losses where we had fewer than 80 points, 4 of them occurred in a 2-4 stretch from January 11th to January 30th where we were without KJ or Ivisic for a majority of minutes in all but one of those games. Even with the bizarre dud of a performance at Rutgers, since we got the full team back, we are 3-1, averaging 84.5 points per game and have outscored our opponents by an average margin of 6.25 points per game. Take out Rutgers, and we're averaging 88.3 PPG and have an average victory margin of 11.3 points. Let's hope this is us back on track, and we can expect this from now on!!
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OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Speaking from experience in a different college sport, what you are assuming here is just not the case.
I have had discussions with assignors about specific calls or the overall tenor of a particular game. Hasn't happened a lot, but when it did the conversation was not a lot of fun. I know in one year, the game I had (and I knew I stunk in that game) was enough to keep me from having a post-season conference tournament assignment.
The issue is that since there is such an officiating shortage, we have a smaller pool of officials from which to get the next generation of officials. In other words, does a conference like the Big Ten feel like they have enough new officials to tell someone like DJ Carstensen or Jeffrey Anderson (who, remember, has worked a Final Four recently) that they need to move aside for a younger or newer official?
At the power conference level, officials are being graded on every game. There are entire reporting structures in place to assess and coach officials at this level. Here's one example for six D1 conferences. While we all may scratch our heads at seeing some of the officials who are going out there night after night, they are at least keeping their assignors happy. As I've mentioned before, then it becomes more about objectives and expectations at the management level.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Interesting, and thank you for the feedback. I suppose a shortage preventing any replacement can certainly come across as the league not caring to discipline/remove consistently bad officials, even if that is not the root cause.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Any chance for Ty to stay? He seems so engaged and has been a great ambassador for the program.
IlliniKat91
- Chicago, IL
Part of me wonders if it comes down to where TA might be coaching next year. If I remember correctly, he was a TA recruit and the announcement that he'd be redshirting came after TA left the program. But, I may have too simple a take on things.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I REALLY hope Ty and DGL stay. We need some "program guys." God love KJ and Ivisic, but walking into a stage like Braggin' Rights just means more when there is someone who's been there before (i.e., been indoctrinated to "get it" from guys like TSJ who learned it from guys like Coleman who learned it from guys like Trent, etc.) vs. a coach/fans instructing them to randomly care more about a certain "rivalry game."
From November to February, we had the 20th ranked offense and 6th ranked defense, according to Torvik.
Since February 1, we've had the 4th ranked offense and the 200th ranked defense.
Haven't had time yet to dig in and understand what changed over the last 4 games (during which we're 3-1) but it's notable that White only played 14 minutes total during that interval.
Since February 1, we've had the 4th ranked offense and the 200th ranked defense.
Haven't had time yet to dig in and understand what changed over the last 4 games (during which we're 3-1) but it's notable that White only played 14 minutes total during that interval.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
It's always a good discussion, and I hope that my in the trenches experience (even if in a different sport) can help with the discussion.
If I could wave a magic wand and make two big changes to college basketball officiating, here's how I would change it.
1) Mandate that officials could not work consecutive days and would work no more than three games in a 7-day period.
2) Ensure that the officiating consortiums have a clear line of communication to the national officiating people that eventually handle the assigning for the post-season tournaments.
As I've said a lot before, the reason you always seem to see DJ Carstensen and Jeffrey Anderson working games is because they ARE always working games. For a lot of these officials, this is essentially their full-time income (or at least a substantial part of their income). So they are working too many games because this is their income source. They are also officially independent contractors. They can accept as many games as they want because they are not bound by any employment agreements like NBA officials are.
I'd love to get one or two of the officials' schedules for a season just to see how many games they work. But here's some very back of the napkin work.
I counted 20 weeks from the first week of November to the week of the Big Ten Tournament. If a referee works five games a week (and this is not completely unheard of), that's close to 100 games. At a rate of $2,000 per game (I don't know specific rates, but given a center referee in a mid-major non-revenue sport like soccer makes $600/game I don't think that's unreasonable), that's $200,000/season. And that's before any NCAA tournament assignments.
If I'm an independent contractor, I'm grabbing that bag as well.
The issue is you're doing those five games in different cities every night. That's wearing at a bare minimum. We are talking about the physical toll on 18-22 year old kids playing a Saturday and then a Tuesday. Now think about that for a 50-55 year old guy refereeing in Champaign on Tuesday, Stillwater on Wednesday, maybe Chapel Hill on Saturday, Charlottesville on Sunday, and Storrs on Monday. Yikes!
Interesting is that we essentially flipped our kenpom rankings regarding offense and defense. We were right around 10 on defense and between 20-30 in offense. Now we're are around 14 offense and defense has slipped to 30. i think top 20 on both is reasonable goal heading into the tourney but not easy
The way Tomi is playing (with post mono symptoms and a bum ankle) and if he continues the consistent 3's, rebounding and defense .... he will be a legit stretch 5 drafted in the first round
I doubt it. No TA and probably 15-20 mins off the bench because Morez owns the dunker's spot. Good program guy, but I don't think we can offer him what he wants
At this point it would take a massive collapse from him down the stretch for him not to be a first rounder. Hes shown enough already. I expect him gone.
You think DGL is likely gone?
That's a really good starting point.
Would love to add DGL, Tre, and Ty too, but assuming we have a couple of NBA caliber guys coming in (or staying) somebody will leave for more minutes.
^^ Makes me wonder if DGL and Tre have basically told the staff they're gone after this year. I'm surprised to see Morez listed as coming back from all the scuttlebutt earlier in the season. But I'm quite happy if that happens. Hum won't accept a bench role. No way. No how.
MDchicago
- Lake Norman NC
Stepping away from my fandom and looking at a team with this work-in-progress profile, my take would be:
- excellent rebounding team and very good at getting to the FT line, including against top teams. Great qualities to have that travel well, but together account for only ~30% of winning.
- good offensive team, though evenly matched or at slight EFG% disadvantage against top teams on the factor with the greatest explanatory power.
- terrible performance on the TO% factor with nearly 25% of the explanatory power, with near-certain TO% deficit against tournament quality teams that too-often negates the advantages of its rebounding and FTR strengths (too often leaving winning up to whether they have a decent shooting night).
TO% on offense - Decent (11th in B10, 96th in D1), but room for improvement in ball security and decision-making (collectively, though KJ (4.6 TO per 40 min) and Kylan (2.9) have the greatest opportunity, with Tomi (2.3) and Tre (2.1) next in line.)
TO% on defense - Dead last in B10 and 358th out of 364 D1 teams. Our passivity on defense this year is as extreme as our aggressiveness on defense (TO% defense 4th/351 teams) was in BU's first year at Illinois. Not sure where the risk/return curve on defensive aggression is (and recognize potential offsetting costs in FTR and rebounding effectiveness), but seems unlikely we are at the optimal point so would try tinkering at the margins in the existing framework (e.g., giving DGL and Kylan more freedom) and/or adding defensive variants with greater denial/ball pressure for opportunistic use.
It seems clear that TO ratio is too important to winning to have such a consistent deficit against top teams and reasonably expect to string together several consecutive wins against top teams in the tournament. Improving TO% outcomes relative to its opponent would help unlock the team's full potential, but even narrowing the extent of the TO% disadvantage could be very impactful given its other strengths.
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Ty would have been perfect for this year's team, bug I can completely understand his thoughts process. He has two more shots at the college game. I'm sure his goal is to be drafted. You can't do that playing 15-20 role minutes off the bench.
I'm not sure which program will guarantee him more significant role with his inability(currently) to shoot, but I'm sure one is out there. He was recruited over last year and will be once again this year.
I would LOVE to have Ty back, but unless he has a come to Jesus moment where he accepts the role and just wants to enjoy the next two years.....he's gone and I'll continue to be a huge fan regardless of his landing spot.
I'm not sure which program will guarantee him more significant role with his inability(currently) to shoot, but I'm sure one is out there. He was recruited over last year and will be once again this year.
I would LOVE to have Ty back, but unless he has a come to Jesus moment where he accepts the role and just wants to enjoy the next two years.....he's gone and I'll continue to be a huge fan regardless of his landing spot.
Who are the leading PG recruits at this point? I'm curious about most wanted as well as most likely.
Kylan has improved significantly by playing within themselves**. Unfortunately without the 3 shot falling, and lacking a really strong finish to their drive, the offense seems to stall with Kylan as the primary ball handler.
GrayGhost77
- Centennial, CO
So basically, clean up the turnovers and we're nearly unbeatable. Seems to be the number one factor holding us back.
Stevegarbs
- Mokena, IL
Good analysis and thoughts, I wish these would resonate with fans on this board and other places. D1 officials work tremendously hard to get to D1 and then they are extensively scrutinized and critiqued while working at that level. Brutally critiqued, punished/penalized more often than many realize (your example is a classic in football- one bad game/call can cost a coveted post-season assignment). The level of scrutiny in officiating in football, the sport I am most familiar with, goes all the way down to the DIII level and even into some high schools associations. While there is a shortage across the board, that doesn't mean the overall level of competence has gone down or is going down.It's always a good discussion, and I hope that my in the trenches experience (even if in a different sport) can help with the discussion.
If I could wave a magic wand and make two big changes to college basketball officiating, here's how I would change it.
1) Mandate that officials could not work consecutive days and would work no more than three games in a 7-day period.
2) Ensure that the officiating consortiums have a clear line of communication to the national officiating people that eventually handle the assigning for the post-season tournaments.
As I've said a lot before, the reason you always seem to see DJ Carstensen and Jeffrey Anderson working games is because they ARE always working games. For a lot of these officials, this is essentially their full-time income (or at least a substantial part of their income). So they are working too many games because this is their income source. They are also officially independent contractors. They can accept as many games as they want because they are not bound by any employment agreements like NBA officials are.
I'd love to get one or two of the officials' schedules for a season just to see how many games they work. But here's some very back of the napkin work.
I counted 20 weeks from the first week of November to the week of the Big Ten Tournament. If a referee works five games a week (and this is not completely unheard of), that's close to 100 games. At a rate of $2,000 per game (I don't know specific rates, but given a center referee in a mid-major non-revenue sport like soccer makes $600/game I don't think that's unreasonable), that's $200,000/season. And that's before any NCAA tournament assignments.
If I'm an independent contractor, I'm grabbing that bag as well.
I'm not sure I fully agree with your worries about schedules and fatigue, although there are probably some instances where that is a factor. The other reason you also see certain officials seeming to always be working games is that the assignors recognize them as amongst the best and want them to work their games. They know how much they work- it's not a black box where only the individual official knows their full schedule.
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