Week of 3/10 Bracketology

[sacraig]

Things might get very interesting if Flagg is out for an extended period of time for Duke. They are still a lock for a 1 seed, but they are much more beatable than the product they put on the floor at MSG.

We also put a shambolic caricature of our normal product on the floor for that game. Duke is really good, but I read very little into that game.

 

[Navy_illini]

I think it would be very hard for the committee to give Purdue a 4 seed (which is what Lunardi has them as) if we beat them twice. There are also 3 teams projected as 3 seeds that are debatable. There is a world where if we make the B1G tournament finals we are a 4 and if we win it we are a 3. Just like last year.

I think after tomorrow the tournament games mean a lot less for seeding

Games are not equal because of the amount of days without rest

When we win and if PU wins then both teams would be playing their third game in three games. If scUM wins then they will have an extra days rest

 

[From the cheap seats]

Surely the Kansas loss knocks them off the #6 line, right? Gotta think #6 is the floor for the Illini even if they lose to MD.

 

[Piotyr]

Committee analysis part 3:

Now we've got 3 buckets consisting of 101 total teams.

Bucket 1, top 24 at large:
Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan,
Michigan State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Purdue, Saint John's, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Wisconsin

Bucket 2, Auto bids only (13 so far):
American (Patriot), Bryant (AE), Jackson State (SWAC), Montana (Big Sky), Norfolk State (MEAC), Omaha (Summit), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Robert Morris (Horizon), Saint Francis (PA) (NEC), SIUE (OVC), Troy (Sun Belt), UNCW (CAA), Wofford (Southern)

Bucket 3: Under consideration (64):
Akron, Arizona State, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Baylor, Boise State, Bradley, Butler, BYU, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Colorado State, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Drake, George Mason, Georgia, Grand Canyon, High Point, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas State, Liberty, Lipscomb, Louisville, McNeese, Memphis, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Texas, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's College, San Diego State, San Francisco, Santa Clara, SMU, Stanford, TCU, Texas, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, UCF, USC, Utah, Utah State, Vanderbilt, VCU, Villanova, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Xavier, Yale

Next steps:
1. Filter out the bottom 16 under consideration, since we still have 33 teams too many

Here are my bottom 16 from that under consideration group:
- Colorado: 14-19 record, 3-17 in conference
- Butler: 14-19 record, 6-14 in conference
- Arizona State: 13-19 record, 4-16 in conference, 3-14 vs Q1
- Grand Canyon: 1 Q4 loss, average NET loss is 138, 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, NC SOS is 287 which is bad for a team in a bad league, moved to Auto Bid bucket for WAC
- Rutgers: 15-17 record, 4-13 vs Q1, 2 Q3 losses
- Kansas State: 16-18 record, 8-15 vs Q1/Q2, 2 Q3 losses
- Nevada: 8-12 in MWC, 3-12 vs Q1/Q2, 3 Q3 losses
- Lipscomb: 2 Q4 losses, 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, average NET win is 251, moved to Auto Bid bucket for the ASUN
- High Point: 2 Q4 losses, average NET loss is 291 (partially because they're 1-0 vs Q1/Q2), moved to Auto Bid bucket for the Big South
- Arkansas State: 2 Q4 losses, average NET loss is 133, moved to Auto Bid bucket for Sun Belt
- Akron: 1-3 vs Q1/Q2, average NET win is 240, moved to Auto Bid bucket for the MAC
- Liberty: NC SOS of 290, not good enough in CUSA, 4 Q3 losses, no Q1 games
- Yale: 2 Q4 losses, average NET win is 227, moved to Auto bid bucket for Ivy
- USC: 16-17 record, 7-13 in conference, 3-12 vs Q1
- Utah: 16-16 record, 2-12 vs Q1
- TCU: 16-16 record, 7-16 vs Q1/Q2

That eliminates 10 teams (leaving us with 91, still 23 too many) and moves another 6 to the Auto Bid group.


2. Start building the S-Curve, a 1-68 ranking of all teams in the field

We'll start at the top with the top 8 of this group:

Spoiler: At Large bucket

1. Team #8 - 15 Q1 wins, average NET loss of just 7, overall SOS of 2, NC SOS of 8, no losses outside Q1
2. Team #34 - 11 Q1 wins, Avg NET loss of just 16, 17-4 vs Q1/Q2, no losses outside Q1
3. Team #25 - NC SOS of 11, 14-3 vs Q1/Q2, 10-1 road record
4. Team #26 - 17-4 vs Q1/Q2, no losses outside Q1, dinged slightly for NC SOS of 264
5. Team #2 - 18-7 vs Q1/Q2, overall SOS of 1, NC SOS of 9, average NET win of 63 and average NET loss of just 14, no losses vs Q1
6. Team #94 - 14-6 vs Q1/Q2, average NET loss of just 17, no losses outside Q1
7. Team #52 - 12-4 vs Q1, 17-5 vs Q1/Q2, 17-3 in conference, average NET win under 100
8. Team #81 - 13-4 vs Q1/Q2, only other team with no losses outside Q1, 18-2 in conference

- And for the bottom of the bracket:

Spoiler: Auto Bids

68. Team #80 - 13-17 record, 297 NET, no top 200 wins
67. Team #39 - 15-17 record, 271 NET no top 300 wins
66. Team #3 - 1-6 record vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 201
65. Team #87 - 2-4 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 227, only 13-7 in conference
64. Team #76 - 1-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 212
63. Team #60 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 4-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
62. Team #12 - 0-4 vs Q1/Q2, 3-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
61. Team #69 - 0-7 vs Q1/Q2, but 6 Q3 wins is a giant in this group
60. Team #56 - 1-6 vs Q1/Q2, 5-9 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
59. Team #116 - 2-5 vs Q1/Q2, 8-13 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
58. Team #104 - 0-1 vs Q1/Q2, NC SOS 320, 8 Q3 wins, 3 Q4 losses
57. Team #33 - No Q1 games, NC SOS 356 (nearly worst in D1), 8 Q3 wins, 2 Q4 losses
56. Team #118 - 0-1 vs Q1, 6-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 2 Q4 losses
55. Team #99 - 0-3 vs Q1, 7-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 3 Q4 losses
54. Team #44 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 7-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 2 Q4 losses
53. Team #77 - 0-1 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q1/Q2, 11-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 3 Q4 losses
52. Team #32 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 8-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 1 Q4 loss
51. Team #1 - 1-3 vs Q1/Q2, 5-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, no Q4 losses
50. Team #7 - 1 Q1 win, 2 Q4 losses, 7-3 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
49. Team #43 - 3-2 vs Q1/Q2, 15-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, no Q4 losses

That puts 28 of 68 teams in the S-Curve and is enough for one day. Tomorrow we pare down the consideration board again, move some under consideration into the at-large pool, and continue seeding the at-large pool.

 

[Thaillini22]

Committee analysis part 3:

Now we've got 3 buckets consisting of 101 total teams.

Bucket 1, top 24 at large:
Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, Kansas, Kentucky, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan,
Michigan State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Purdue, Saint John's, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCLA, Wisconsin

Bucket 2, Auto bids only (13 so far):
American (Patriot), Bryant (AE), Jackson State (SWAC), Montana (Big Sky), Norfolk State (MEAC), Omaha (Summit), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Robert Morris (Horizon), Saint Francis (PA) (NEC), SIUE (OVC), Troy (Sun Belt), UNCW (CAA), Wofford (Southern)

Bucket 3: Under consideration (64):
Akron, Arizona State, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Baylor, Boise State, Bradley, Butler, BYU, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Colorado State, Connecticut, Creighton, Dayton, Drake, George Mason, Georgia, Grand Canyon, High Point, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas State, Liberty, Lipscomb, Louisville, McNeese, Memphis, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Texas, Northwestern, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Saint Joseph's, Saint Mary's College, San Diego State, San Francisco, Santa Clara, SMU, Stanford, TCU, Texas, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, UCF, USC, Utah, Utah State, Vanderbilt, VCU, Villanova, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Xavier, Yale

Next steps:
1. Filter out the bottom 16 under consideration, since we still have 33 teams too many

Here are my bottom 16 from that under consideration group:
- Colorado: 14-19 record, 3-17 in conference
- Butler: 14-19 record, 6-14 in conference
- Arizona State: 13-19 record, 4-16 in conference, 3-14 vs Q1
- Grand Canyon: 1 Q4 loss, average NET loss is 138, 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, NC SOS is 287 which is bad for a team in a bad league, moved to Auto Bid bucket for WAC
- Rutgers: 15-17 record, 4-13 vs Q1, 2 Q3 losses
- Kansas State: 16-18 record, 8-15 vs Q1/Q2, 2 Q3 losses
- Nevada: 8-12 in MWC, 3-12 vs Q1/Q2, 3 Q3 losses
- Lipscomb: 2 Q4 losses, 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, average NET win is 251, moved to Auto Bid bucket for the ASUN
- High Point: 2 Q4 losses, average NET loss is 291 (partially because they're 1-0 vs Q1/Q2), moved to Auto Bid bucket for the Big South
- Arkansas State: 2 Q4 losses, average NET loss is 133, moved to Auto Bid bucket for Sun Belt
- Akron: 1-3 vs Q1/Q2, average NET win is 240, moved to Auto Bid bucket for the MAC
- Liberty: NC SOS of 290, not good enough in CUSA, 4 Q3 losses, no Q1 games
- Yale: 2 Q4 losses, average NET win is 227, moved to Auto bid bucket for Ivy
- USC: 16-17 record, 7-13 in conference, 3-12 vs Q1
- Utah: 16-16 record, 2-12 vs Q1
- TCU: 16-16 record, 7-16 vs Q1/Q2

That eliminates 10 teams (leaving us with 91, still 23 too many) and moves another 6 to the Auto Bid group.


2. Start building the S-Curve, a 1-68 ranking of all teams in the field

We'll start at the top with the top 8 of this group:

Spoiler: At Large bucket

View attachment 40502

1. Team #8 - 15 Q1 wins, average NET loss of just 7, overall SOS of 2, NC SOS of 8, no losses outside Q1
2. Team #34 - 11 Q1 wins, Avg NET loss of just 16, 17-4 vs Q1/Q2, no losses outside Q1
3. Team #25 - NC SOS of 11, 14-3 vs Q1/Q2, 10-1 road record
4. Team #26 - 17-4 vs Q1/Q2, no losses outside Q1, dinged slightly for NC SOS of 264
5. Team #2 - 18-7 vs Q1/Q2, overall SOS of 1, NC SOS of 9, average NET win of 63 and average NET loss of just 14, no losses vs Q1
6. Team #94 - 14-6 vs Q1/Q2, average NET loss of just 17, no losses outside Q1
7. Team #52 - 12-4 vs Q1, 17-5 vs Q1/Q2, 17-3 in conference, average NET win under 100
8. Team #81 - 13-4 vs Q1/Q2, only other team with no losses outside Q1, 18-2 in conference

- And for the bottom of the bracket:

Spoiler: Auto Bids

View attachment 40503

68. Team #80 - 13-17 record, 297 NET, no top 200 wins
67. Team #39 - 15-17 record, 271 NET no top 300 wins
66. Team #3 - 1-6 record vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 201
65. Team #87 - 2-4 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 227, only 13-7 in conference
64. Team #76 - 1-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, average NET loss 212
63. Team #60 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 4-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
62. Team #12 - 0-4 vs Q1/Q2, 3-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
61. Team #69 - 0-7 vs Q1/Q2, but 6 Q3 wins is a giant in this group
60. Team #56 - 1-6 vs Q1/Q2, 5-9 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
59. Team #116 - 2-5 vs Q1/Q2, 8-13 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
58. Team #104 - 0-1 vs Q1/Q2, NC SOS 320, 8 Q3 wins, 3 Q4 losses
57. Team #33 - No Q1 games, NC SOS 356 (nearly worst in D1), 8 Q3 wins, 2 Q4 losses
56. Team #118 - 0-1 vs Q1, 6-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 2 Q4 losses
55. Team #99 - 0-3 vs Q1, 7-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 3 Q4 losses
54. Team #44 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 7-7 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 2 Q4 losses
53. Team #77 - 0-1 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q1/Q2, 11-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 3 Q4 losses
52. Team #32 - 1-4 vs Q1/Q2, 8-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, 1 Q4 loss
51. Team #1 - 1-3 vs Q1/Q2, 5-5 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, no Q4 losses
50. Team #7 - 1 Q1 win, 2 Q4 losses, 7-3 vs Q1/Q2/Q3
49. Team #43 - 3-2 vs Q1/Q2, 15-6 vs Q1/Q2/Q3, no Q4 losses

That puts 28 of 68 teams in the S-Curve and is enough for one day. Tomorrow we pare down the consideration board again, move some under consideration into the at-large pool, and continue seeding the at-large pool.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Kentucky beats Oklahoma on a buzzer beater.

 

[Illinicpa14]

Lol palm moved us down to an 8 this AM….

 

[OrangeBlue98]

Lol palm moved us down to an 8 this AM….

He's just trolling right now. I've never listened to that hack, and I'm sure not starting anytime soon.

 

[Mistakenj]

Lol palm moved us down to an 8 this AM….

What!?!? LoL

 

[Butters]

Surely the Kansas loss knocks them off the #6 line, right? Gotta think #6 is the floor for the Illini even if they lose to MD.

16 of the 20 teams on bracket matrix 4/5/6/7/8 lines are alive in their conference tournament. I don't think can rule out moving down at this point.