Pregame: Illinois vs Xavier, Friday, March 21st, 8:45pm CT, CBS

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#101      
RollChief
Orangetool said:
There is some great stat analysis here in previous posts.

However for this Illinois team the stat that really matters is: who wants it more.
Gotta come out pissed with great energy, use the bench early and tell them to use up some hard physical fouls.
Play BIG style basketball. (assuming the refs let us)

Oh, and lotsa Morez.
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Xavier has a low ceiling and this Illini team (and probably 10-12 teams we've played this year) is far and away more talented than the team I watched last night. If we turn it into a boat race then they won't be able to keep up.

The only stat that worries me is the same stat that worried me in the exhibition game against Ole Miss at the very beginning of the season: Experience. They're #2 and we're #301. Thankfully not all experience is the same and this year has hopefully been a crash course in handling big moments/stages for our guys.
 
#102      
RollChief
From the cheap seats said:
The Illini look to match up well physically at every position. I'm not sure Xavier has an answer for Will's ability to cut to the basket and his ability to slice through the defense and finish. Until Texas stopped trying to run any team offense, their point guard was able to get deep into the lane whenever he wanted. I think Will can do that with his quickness and I think Kylan can with his strength. Kylan has been finishing well around the rim the past several games. Nor do I think Xavier can keep Morez, Tre and others off the offensive boards.
As others have said, KJ does not have to win the game; he just cannot be loose with the ball and give Xavier runouts off of turnovers -- they've scored about 20% of their points on fastbreaks this year and it is where they get a lot of open looks from the arc.
IMO, Xavier has to win the game from the 3-point line. The Illini don't need to fire up 30 3's in this game given their advantage inside. But I'm sure Xavier will do all that they can to invite the Illini to fire away from the arc...if we take the bait, we'd better be all over the offensive boards.
Illini 80, Xavier 73
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Not sure how many folks here can attest to this (I certainly can't) but it seems like fast-break offense requires confidence and playing freely.

The games where they've looked the most shell-shocked (Duke & Maryland 2) are the games where they've had the least fast break points (2 and 0 respectively). I'm not sure if this was a defensive scheme by either team or more so no one from our squad wanted to get out and run with the ball.
 
#103      
DJM
we beat "first half" Xavier by 10 or 11. We lose to "second half" Xavier by 2 or 3.
they got on a run in the second half with the help of home game atmosphere.
Don't foul or committ 3 TOs in the frst couple mins and Don't give up big runs, which we've been prone to do. we'll be just fine.
 
#104      
GoodePodzMelendez
RollChief said:
Not sure how many folks here can attest to this (I certainly can't) but it seems like fast-break offense requires confidence and playing freely.

The games where they've looked the most shell-shocked (Duke & Maryland 2) are the games where they've had the least fast break points (2 and 0 respectively). I'm not sure if this was a defensive scheme by either team or more so no one from our squad wanted to get out and run with the ball.
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What I noticed in the second half last night was Xavier weaving to get Texas to over commit then they would attack, find the open shooter and bang, another 3 pointer. The obvious answer is running them off the three point line but they are good at finding open looks. Just need to stay with them and get them to shoot contested shots. Get Freemantle in foul trouble as their back up C is not a good shooter around the basket. We out rebound them and go 7-19 from 3, we should win going away.
 
#105      
skyIdub
Well, once again I will sacrifice and do my part for the FamILLy.

I’m going to work and will miss all of the first round, but be in the hotel to see our Illini Fri night.

This worked spectacularly for our mini streak, then ended when I stayed home to watch the Maryland game.

I’m still trying to harness this juju.🧡🧐
 
#106      
RML
Since we seemed lackadaisical or tired in some of our recent losses, I checked our box scores. Since the Tennessee game, we are 7-0 in games where Tomi gets 8 or more boards. All year, the only games we've lost where Tomi got 8 or more boards were Alabama, Northwestern in OT, and Tennessee.

(I suppose that's somewhat universal; kinda like the team that gets the most points usually wins. :))
 
#107      
Fighter of the Nightman
Now that we officially know it's Xavier, I thought it would be fun to do another comparison of our results vs. similar teams based on KenPom and NET rankings. I will define "comparable" as within 10 spots of Xavier on either side.

NCAAT MATCHUP
KenPom
#20 Illinois vs. #41 Xavier

NET Rankings
#17 Illinois vs. #45 Xavier

COMPARABLE RESULTS
KenPom
W 109-77 at #32 Oregon
W 87-79 vs. #39 Ohio State
W 90-77 vs. #40 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
----- #41 Xavier -----
W 83-74 vs. #45 Northwestern
L 66-70 in OT at #45 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #46 Indiana

NET Rankings
W 90-77 vs. #40 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
W 87-79 vs. #41 Ohio State
----- #45 Xavier -----
W 83-74 vs. #53 Northwestern
L 66-70 in OT at #53 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #54 Indiana

So the best comparison strictly based on this analysis is a neutral site win over Arkansas, which is within 1 spot of Xavier on KenPom and 5 spots on the NET Rankings. Here is how that matchup went down compared to Illinois' season average, our opponents' overall average and then how Illinois/Arkansas fared in that matchup:

PPG
ILL Avg.: 83.8
OPP: 74.6

ILL: 90.0
ARK: 77.0

FG PCT.
ILL Avg.: 45.0%
OPP: 42.2%

ILL: 52.6%
ARK: 48.3%

3-POINT PCT
ILL Avg.: 30.1%
OPP: 33.3%

ILL: 48.4%
ARK: 29.1%

So a big takeaway for me is that it didn't kill us that Arkansas shot pretty well overall (about 14% better than our average opponent) ... because we held them below our opponents' season average from three, at just 29.1%. We also shot very well, but we likely didn't need to shoot THAT well to win. So, in conclusion, here are my two super obvious, not-insightful keys to winning. :ROFLMAO:

1. Limit Xavier's threes. Xavier shoots 38.8% from three, and we limit our opponents to 33.3% from three. Xavier is just 9-7 when they shoot below 38.0% from three, and they are 5-6 when they shoot below our average allowed of 33.3%. If they are going to beat us, it is because we are giving them open threes, and they're making them.

2. Make. Our. Damn. Shots! I know this is obvious, but it's crazy how much we can fluctuate. Xavier allows its opponents to make 44.3% of their shots. We are 18-1 when we shoot over 44.0%, and the only loss is to Alabama back in November.

There are obviously other factors, but damn ... it really seems that simple!
 
#108      
hoopsfan47
A lot of categorical analysis about this match. For me, it is always pretty simple. The team that is more focused and energetic on both ends and hitting shots will win. Our season has shown that we cannot depend on this team to do that. But, if not now, when? We have some advantages in height and depth, but that has not worked out consistently this season. Shooting? Who knows? Defense? Far from consistent. Should be a tight one as this X team is pretty motivated and far more consistent at hitting shots.

I would love to see this team determined to not let X score a single pt.....but that seems to be a DNA gene with which our guys are not blessed.
 
#110      
From the cheap seats
RollChief said:
Not sure how many folks here can attest to this (I certainly can't) but it seems like fast-break offense requires confidence and playing freely.

The games where they've looked the most shell-shocked (Duke & Maryland 2) are the games where they've had the least fast break points (2 and 0 respectively). I'm not sure if this was a defensive scheme by either team or more so no one from our squad wanted to get out and run with the ball.
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You're not wrong. The Illini average only 7 ppg on fastbreaks (298th in the nation) as we don't get many steals (4.4/game, 350th). It's just not what we do on defense as we try to force hard two-point shots and rebound with everyone going to the boards. It's one way to get the ball back. The third way is to grab the ball as it falls through the basket, and we've done a fair bit of that lately. I prefer method #2 or #1. By comparison, Xavier is 9th in the country at 15 ppg on fastbreaks. Many of those Xavier fastbreak points come off of steals as they average almost 8 steals per game (83rd in the country).
 
#112      
kyillinifan
Go ILLINI! Watching the game last night what Tx failed to do was not build on the lead. X got some momentum and were allowed back in the game with a few 3's. I have noticed that in college bball this year. During the game I thought we were going to have to play TX. X is on a hot streak and now it is time for us to go on one. Would love to see KJ do what he did earlier in the year. I still think we need a good game from Jake and DGL on Fri night.
 
#115      
phats22
Zorak said:
This is the kind of silly comment that makes people think anyone who doesn't go all-in on analytics is a philistine.
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100%

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#116      
NASchamp
Rebounding has been a key focus for our team all year and winning that battle has been instrumental in most, if not all, our wins.

However, this only matters tomorrow if Xavier is missing enough shots. If they are shooting at 40% or 50%, we're in trouble. So we need to limit the 3s that go up, especially open ones as they can really hit those.

On Offense, we need to drive the ball and have cutters all game. Passing will be key. They're going to leave us open from 3. We can't fall in love with only taking 3s. That will be our downfall, even if we do make a few.
 
#117      
OrangeBlue98
From the cheap seats said:
You're not wrong. The Illini average only 7 ppg on fastbreaks (298th in the nation) as we don't get many steals (4.4/game, 350th). It's just not what we do on defense as we try to force hard two-point shots and rebound with everyone going to the boards. It's one way to get the ball back. The third way is to grab the ball as it falls through the basket, and we've done a fair bit of that lately. I prefer method #2 or #1. By comparison, Xavier is 9th in the country at 15 ppg on fastbreaks. Many of those Xavier fastbreak points come off of steals as they average almost 8 steals per game (83rd in the country).
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This is probably the thing that concerns me most about this game. We have a primary ballhandler that has a tendency to be loose with the ball. While I know Xavier shoots the ball well, I feel like the combination of regression to the mean and likely fatigue after last night will mean they won't shoot nearly 50% from 3. Live-ball turnovers leading to easy Xavier points is probably the most plausible way they can come away with a win.

Protect the basketball, and I like our chances.
 
#118      
doowink
At this point in the season our defense is what it is....rebounding should be a plus for us in this game...but our offense needs to be inside out to start the game....take it inside...if doubled then kick it out to the perimeter....don't start the game with 7-8 consecutive 3 point shots....take the ball into the paint!!
 
#120      
OrangeBlue98
doowink said:
At this point in the season our defense is what it is....rebounding should be a plus for us in this game...but our offense needs to be inside out to start the game....take it inside...if doubled then kick it out to the perimeter....don't start the game with 7-8 consecutive 3 point shots....take the ball into the paint!!
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We HAVE to test their energy early. If we play a noonball/chucking three offense early, they'll gain confidence and energy. Attack the rim, cut hard, move without the ball. Make them work really hard on defense. Last night was a great win for them, but they cannot be at peak energy levels. That was such a physically and emotionally charged win for them. The game plan has to be to run them hard when they play defense. I don't know how long Xavier will be able to keep their effort up if we are moving without the ball from the first possession.
 
#121      
ptgrd23
kyillinifan said:
Go ILLINI! Watching the game last night what Tx failed to do was not build on the lead. X got some momentum and were allowed back in the game with a few 3's. I have noticed that in college bball this year. During the game I thought we were going to have to play TX. X is on a hot streak and now it is time for us to go on one. Would love to see KJ do what he did earlier in the year. I still think we need a good game from Jake and DGL on Fri night.
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KJ was playing like Luka Doncic for 1st half of season. Then he got injured and missed 2 games.

People have learned how to guard him - doubling him when he dribbles over the top of key pack, and bumping/grabbing him at every opportunity.

Brad needs to make more offensive adjustments to get him going. Run plays for him to get him open when he does not have the ball.
 
#124      
ptgrd23
Times have really changed

KJ projected lottery pick 3rd team big 10 15 ppg 45% shooting 6 rbg 5 apg

Past Illini NBA first round picks

Derek Harper 11th pick 2nd team all american 15 ppg 54% shooting 4 rbg 4 apg 2 spg NCAA lost 1st round
Nick Anderson 11th pick 1st team big 10 18 ppg 54% shooting 8 rbg - NCAA final 4
Kendall Gill 5th pick 1st team all american 20 ppg 50% shooting 5 rbg 3 apg 2 spg - NCAA final 4
Deron Willams 3rd pick 2nd team all american 13 ppg 43% shooting 4 rbg 7 apg -Big 10 champions NCAA finals
Terrance Shannon JR 3rd team all american 23 ppg 48% shooting 4 rbg 2 apg NCAA elite 8

Harper was only player drafted on physical potential. He played 3 seasons for Illini.
 
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