Ya they are nothing like Iowa. They are more similar to Ohio State with a mobile big man.
Pregame: Illinois vs Xavier, Friday, March 21st, 8:45pm CT, CBS
- Status
& 
will win it.Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Lol, same. Don't get me wrong ... if we come out and put on four performances like we did against Oregon, we will be in the Final Four, almost no doubt about it. However, if we come out on Friday with a Maryland-esque performance (take your pick which time!!), we'll be one and done. I'm hoping we can settle in on how we played vs. Michigan and Purdue as something we could reasonably expect, and two outings like that make the Sweet Sixteen doable. To make the Final Four, though, this team will need to find consistency we haven't seen yet. It could happen because the tools are certainly there, but I'll consider it a smashing success if we simply find ourselves playing next weekend, haha.
Thanks as usual, Fighter. Didja by chance look at how Xavier did against teams comparable to us?Now that we officially know it's Xavier, I thought it would be fun to do another comparison of our results vs. similar teams based on KenPom and NET rankings. I will define "comparable" as within 10 spots of Xavier on either side.
NCAAT MATCHUP
KenPom
#20 Illinois vs. #41 Xavier
NET Rankings
#17 Illinois vs. #45 Xavier
COMPARABLE RESULTS
KenPom
W 109-77 at #32 Oregon
W 87-79 vs. #39 Ohio State
W 90-77 vs. #40 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
----- #41 Xavier -----
W 83-74 vs. #45 Northwestern
L 66-70 in OT at #45 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #46 Indiana
NET Rankings
W 90-77 vs. #40 Arkansas (Kansas City, MO)
W 87-79 vs. #41 Ohio State
----- #45 Xavier -----
W 83-74 vs. #53 Northwestern
L 66-70 in OT at #53 Northwestern
W 94-69 at #54 Indiana
So the best comparison strictly based on this analysis is a neutral site win over Arkansas, which is within 1 spot of Xavier on KenPom and 5 spots on the NET Rankings. Here is how that matchup went down compared to Illinois' season average, our opponents' overall average and then how Illinois/Arkansas fared in that matchup:
PPG
ILL Avg.: 83.8
OPP: 74.6
ILL: 90.0
ARK: 77.0
FG PCT.
ILL Avg.: 45.0%
OPP: 42.2%
ILL: 52.6%
ARK: 48.3%
3-POINT PCT
ILL Avg.: 30.1%
OPP: 33.3%
ILL: 48.4%
ARK: 29.1%
So a big takeaway for me is that it didn't kill us that Arkansas shot pretty well overall (about 14% better than our average opponent) ... because we held them below our opponents' season average from three, at just 29.1%. We also shot very well, but we likely didn't need to shoot THAT well to win. So, in conclusion, here are my two super obvious, not-insightful keys to winning.
1. Limit Xavier's threes. Xavier shoots 38.8% from three, and we limit our opponents to 33.3% from three. Xavier is just 9-7 when they shoot below 38.0% from three, and they are 5-6 when they shoot below our average allowed of 33.3%. If they are going to beat us, it is because we are giving them open threes, and they're making them.
2. Make. Our. Damn. Shots! I know this is obvious, but it's crazy how much we can fluctuate. Xavier allows its opponents to make 44.3% of their shots. We are 18-1 when we shoot over 44.0%, and the only loss is to Alabama back in November.
There are obviously other factors, but damn ... it really seems that simple!
Anyone have luck with tix for Friday? Struck out on the I Fund lottery. Secondary market still pretty pricey.
Agreed. I am usually OK with understanding stats. This is gobbledygook.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I've shied away from that type of analysis because it is a little bit harder; for Illinois, I can just eyeball teams in the NET Rankings and know immediately if we have played them. However, I'm now interested, haha. Illinois is #20 in KenPom and #17 in the NET Rankings. It looks like this is how Xavier has fared:
COMPARABLE RESULTS FOR XAVIER
KenPom
L 72-82 vs. #11 St. John's (NY)
L 71-79 in OT at #11 St. John's (NY)
----- #20 Illinois -----
L 53-78 vs. #23 Michigan (Fort Myers, FL)
W 59-57 at #26 Marquette
L 70-72 vs. #26 Marquette
L 87-89 vs. #26 Marquette (BET in New York, NY)
NET Rankings
L 72-82 vs. #13 St. John's (NY)
L 71-79 in OT at #13 St. John's (NY)
----- #17 Illinois -----
L 53-78 vs. #23 Michigan (Fort Myers, FL)
W 59-57 at #26 Marquette
L 70-72 vs. #26 Marquette
L 87-89 vs. #26 Marquette (BET in New York, NY)
So I mean ... I think everyone has a right to think we *should* win if we come to play and are properly prepared, but it obviously could be a very tough fight (especially if our shots aren't falling).
USAFILLINI
- Florida
It’s KenPom. If you understand stats, there’s no reason this should be confusing.
Tendency? TENDENCY? KJ is a turnover machine! when double-teamed dribbles, dribbles, dribbles until opponents gladly take it away. Driving into pressure he jumps up with nowhere to go, flings it to the other team or fires it out of bounds. Completely over his head against strong defensive pressure. Huge flaws that he seems unable to correct. I wish it wasn't so.
Ok. Thanks for your empathetic take. If only we could be as wise as you.
USAFILLINI
- Florida
It took me hours and hours of staring at crappy UI/UX and googling to understand what went into all the stats.
The info is pretty disjointed, KenPom talks about this (he is indeed a guy with a pretty interesting story), from what I remember in one of his blogs or info pages he likes to run a pretty tight ship and isn't interested in changes, so continues to use 00's style formatting (akin to this board haha, no offense mods).
If it makes you feel any better, I am no richer from spending dozens of hours a year staring at KenPom stats. It is worth the $20/year subscription though.
LOL. One mean nasty lil' geek are you.
Been a Prarie Farms guy since childhood.
No that strategy is reserved for Klingons
Attachments
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
I hope you don't do your own taxes.
Looking ahead, we still look a step slower than Tennessee
- Status