He was terrible at the plate last year to
Chicago Cubs 2025
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"Clutch" is a statistical myth that really has no place in the statistical analysis modern baseball (or any sport for that matter).
This is only believed by those who never played at any level. You're basically denying that people press and get the yips in big moments. It wouldn't make any sense that a hall of very good pitcher (Jon Lester) can't throw the ball to first base, but yet that was a thing was it not?
This is even more obviously a thing with Seiya since he's also dropped balls that little leaguers would catch when the game was on the line. Again, he's a good guy from all accounts. He just is not a winning baseball player.
I am curious how far you will believe your point of view though. Look up Jason Heyward's career numbers and then his playoff numbers. Now do the same for Clayton Kershaw. Now explain to me what's going on there.
Maybe "clutch" is just performing at your usual high level no matter how big the moment is. That's a lot of people. And there are people who rarely come through in those big moments. It's not just luck or variance over the course of long careers, I promise you
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Simply put, a regression to the mean.
So game 7, your life on the line, you'd take Clayton Kershaw in his prime over Madison Bumgarner in his prime? I suppose you'd have to. Kershaw is a significantly better pitcher by any career metrics...
Statistically, yes.
You seem to be a "trust the gut" person. I'm a "trust the data" person.
And that's okay.
Knowing what we know now you absolutely take Mad Bum. We live!
The issue for me to that conclusion is I want a manager to trust the numbers with bullpen and lineup construction.
What you have to argue is that Kershaw’s full season amount of playoff splits represent an anomaly that means nothing. I think that mentality dramatically understates the pressure and mental strain famous athletes go through.
KBLEE
- Montgomery, IL
It's actually not. Seiya has dropped plenty of routine fly balls in "non-clutch" situations as well. Why? He's simply not a good defensive player, which is why he is mainly a DH these days.
There is a confounding of variables here. The former is the result of a sample size. The latter is relating to performance psychology. Kershaw's splits are noise to any statistician worth their salt. There is certainly pressures & strain that athletes at the highest levels face, but there is no correlational data to be found here.
You mentioned earlier that I may be exhibiting the argument of someone who never played at a high level, and I'll acknowledge that I never did play beyond high school (unless you count a college intramural wiffleball championship). That said, I do know a thing or two about data and performance in my career as a psychologist.
I do appreciate the dialogue and hearing from your school of thought. Hope you enjoyed hearing a little bit from mine, too.
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
2-out BA and RBI's?
How do you explain Reggie Jackson? They don’t call him Mr. October for nothing. He was clutch.
Reggie Jackson was a very good hitter on some very good teams and played in a lot of World Series games - 5 in 10 years - during a time when a good chunk of the country only got to see out of town teams when they played in the postseason.
But his post season numbers were’t hugely different from his regular season numbers, especially if you filter out his past his prime seasons with the Angels.
He was a great post season clutch hitter, largely because he was a great hitter who hit absolute massive bombs during a time when there wasn’t as much power in the game as there is now.
The five teams the Cubs have played so far this year are 53-22 (.706) in games against teams other than the Cubs.
And even the A's would be 9-7 if they didn't play the Cubs. They have improved to a mediocre team.
Are you kidding me? He has completely rebuilt the farm system that Theo destroyed. The way you win and Stacy winning is the way is to build from within. We tried the spending spree way and that failed after 2016. When we win the division with over 90 wins and get to the NLCS, Jed might win EOY.
I believe that to be true.
The bull pen is light years ahead of where we were this time last year. We have had a few bumps but it will be better as we have played a very tough schedule top this point and came away with a 12-9 record. We will be fine in the BP.
Not to rehash this argument for the sake of other readers who are probably beyond tired of my stats dorkery (apologies to the other Cub fan readers), but the two you listed are stats that correlate more with being an above replacement-level hitter than being quantified as clutch. RBIs especially.
RBI is so dependent on things outside of a player’s control. For example…
Babe Ruth had about 300 more RBI than Willie Mays in about 500 fewer games played. Does that mean Ruth was more “clutch” than Mays?
Babe Ruth had a plate appearance somewhere other than 3rd or 4th in the lineup only about 500 times in his career (about 5% of his plate appearances). Willie Mays hit somewhere other than 3rd or 4th in approximately 2000 plate appearances during his career (about 17% of the time).
Willie Mays spent the first half of his prime with Orlando Cepeda in the lineup and the second half with Willie McCovey. Ofherwise he had pretty average guys around him.
Babe Ruth was joined by Lou Gehrig a decade. He also spent much of his prime with Bill Dickey, Tony Lazzeri and Earl Combs in the lineup with him.
From ‘20 to ‘34 (15 seasons of Ruth’s prime with the team) the Yankees won at least 90 games 11 times and went to 7 WS. (The Red Sox also won a WS in ‘18 with Ruth still splitting time between hitting and pitching.) From ‘54 to ‘71 (18 seasons of Mays’ prime) the Giants won at least 90 games 8 times and went to 2 WS.
In short, Ruth had better teammates getting on base around him and took more plate appearances in a batting position where he was able take advantage of it.
Babe Ruth had about 300 more RBI than Willie Mays in about 500 fewer games played. Does that mean Ruth was more “clutch” than Mays?
Babe Ruth had a plate appearance somewhere other than 3rd or 4th in the lineup only about 500 times in his career (about 5% of his plate appearances). Willie Mays hit somewhere other than 3rd or 4th in approximately 2000 plate appearances during his career (about 17% of the time).
Willie Mays spent the first half of his prime with Orlando Cepeda in the lineup and the second half with Willie McCovey. Ofherwise he had pretty average guys around him.
Babe Ruth was joined by Lou Gehrig a decade. He also spent much of his prime with Bill Dickey, Tony Lazzeri and Earl Combs in the lineup with him.
From ‘20 to ‘34 (15 seasons of Ruth’s prime with the team) the Yankees won at least 90 games 11 times and went to 7 WS. (The Red Sox also won a WS in ‘18 with Ruth still splitting time between hitting and pitching.) From ‘54 to ‘71 (18 seasons of Mays’ prime) the Giants won at least 90 games 8 times and went to 2 WS.
In short, Ruth had better teammates getting on base around him and took more plate appearances in a batting position where he was able take advantage of it.
Matt Mervis Thrives with Miami Marlins After Cubs Trade
Matt Mervis, acquired by the Miami Marlins from the Cubs, is thriving in his new environment, showing significant improvement in performance and confidence. Aft
bvmsports.com
I hope they don't call him Mash. It may have been a jinx
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
A four-digit OPS with an NL-leading 6 homers and he's only accrued 0.2 WAR? Lol, how bad has he been in the field?Matt Mervis Thrives with Miami Marlins After Cubs Trade
Matt Mervis, acquired by the Miami Marlins from the Cubs, is thriving in his new environment, showing significant improvement in performance and confidence. Aft
I hope they don't call him Mash. It may have been a jinx
Had only played in 12 of 17 games. They have played 18 now. If he had played in all of them he would have 9 HR. Obviously the pace won't vary. /S
If his fielding is bad there is still a spot for him.
You're not one of those guys who want him to do badly I hope.
Don't think anyone is wishing I'll will towards him, but it is kind of a funny stat with how he's been hitting the ball.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
Remind me how many playoff games the Cubs have won under Hoyer's leadership? Oh yeah, it's zero because they haven't made the playoffs since Jed took over from Theo. Take a look at the overall standings right now. Cubs are 11th in MLB. If the season ended today, he wouldn't even be considered for Executive of the Year. I won't rehash the issues with the bullpen because we know it's bad. What I don't understand is why he can't build a decent bullpen. It's great that he has rebuilt the farm system but ultimately, his goal is to win the World Series. Can't do that when you don't make the playoffs.
They are on pace for 92 wins. So far, they played a killer schedule but haven't played anyone in their division. We'll see how they fare against the so-called weaker teams in the NL Central. I'm cautiously optimistic but if they don't get the bullpen figured out, they are toast.
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