Coaching Carousel (Basketball)
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RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
I always used to think when people said “you have too much time on your hands” that it was an insult. But then I realized it’s actually a compliment. It means I created something quickly which that person assumes must’ve taken much much longer because he or she cannot comprehend how it was done so easily and effortlessly. So I thank you.
It was my pleasure - and your comment is spot on!I always used to think when people said “you have too much time on your hands” that it was an insult. But then I realized it’s actually a compliment. It means I created something quickly which that person assumes must’ve taken much much longer because he or she cannot comprehend how it was done so easily and effortlessly. So I thank you.
Plus, while looking for the Styx link I ran across a live version of Yes playing Roundabout, and it was phenomenal. Made me re-realize what a blessing it was to live my youth in that era of music.
RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
It was a damn fine musical era!
Ha Ha HAAAAA HAAAA ha Ha HAAAA,
brilliant. I. cant. breath!
Offense is by far the most important side of the ball. A top 10 offense and a top 40 defense is a recipe for the final 4. Obviously the closer you bring both of those to 1, the closer you get to the ultimate goal.
But a good offense helps your defense get set, which in general, is better for your defensive efficiency overall.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Even my 24 year old daughter believes that our music was/is better.
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
I vibed out on the Best of Cream this morning on my wake and bake.........righteous tunes and a lot of memories................
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
The final 4 teams this year had Kenpom defensive rankings in the top ten: (Florida #6, Houston #1, Duke #5, and Auburn #9). Pulling out to the Elite 8 teams -- #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #28 (Texas Tech), and #39 (Alabama). Maybe you can make it to the final 4 with defensive metrics hovering just inside the top 40, but you put yourself at the disadvantage when you have an off shooting night --see Alabama vs Duke in Elite 8 (or us vs UCONN the year before). The real recipe is having both a solid offense and defense in the top 15 (i.e., having a great defense will keep you in games when your shooting is off).
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The final 4 teams this year had Kenpom defensive rankings in the top ten: (Florida #6, Houston #1, Duke #5, and Auburn #9). Pulling out to the Elite 8 teams -- #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #28 (Texas Tech), and #39 (Alabama). Maybe you can make it to the final 4 with defensive metrics hovering just inside the top 40, but you put yourself at the disadvantage when you have an off shooting night --see Alabama vs Duke in Elite 8 (or us vs UCONN the year before). The real recipe is having both a solid offense and defense in the top 15 (i.e., having a great defense will keep you in games when your shooting is off).
You only went back one season though
2024 F4 had the 38th and 111th ranked defense
2023 F4 had the 34th and 99th ranked defense
2022 F4 had the 35th and 49th ranked defense
2021 F4 had the 46th ranked defense
You "don't see it happening" but yet it happens pretty much every single year (except last year, the single season you cherry picked to use as reference)?
I think there will be a cap on our defensive metrics as long as we continue play a high-pace NBA type of offense
Last year was unique in that all of the FF teams were top-ten in both Defense and Offense. That is obviously the best way to build a team. It's also really hard to do. Most teams are good at one, or the other, or neither.
The final 4 teams this year had Kenpom defensive rankings in the top ten: (Florida #6, Houston #1, Duke #5, and Auburn #9). Pulling out to the Elite 8 teams -- #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #28 (Texas Tech), and #39 (Alabama). Maybe you can make it to the final 4 with defensive metrics hovering just inside the top 40, but you put yourself at the disadvantage when you have an off shooting night --see Alabama vs Duke in Elite 8 (or us vs UCONN the year before). The real recipe is having both a solid offense and defense in the top 15 (i.e., having a great defense will keep you in games when your shooting is off).
I posted earlier in one of these boards a comparison of teams that were top ten in just Offense and those that were top ten in just Defense. The teams that excelled on Offense fared better in the tourney. The teams that excelled on Defense were more prone to underperforming their seed, and only 50% of them made the second weekend (Despite being top 10 defenses).
BYU is an example of a team with a much worse defense than ours that made the S16 (#9 Offense, #82 Defense). Kentucky, who beat us, also had a worse DRtg than us (and better ORtg).
If anything, there is some evidence to support the notion that is more value to be added by improving our #14 offense than by improving our #40 defense (although, if we can improve both, we should!).
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
He talked about the recipe though. NC State was a complete anomaly in 2024, and you can argue so was Fl Atlantic the year before. Good offensive teams might be able to overcome defensive deficiencies, but it is hardly the recipe for that run. The true recipe is both a good offense and defense. My main point being, that we need to improve upon our defense to have a real shot.
Like I said, it happens pretty much every season
The season which you cherry picked was the anomaly
EDIT: The fact we have teams with 100+ ranked defenses in the final four a lot of years proves you even more wrong than I originally suspected you were
We need to quit comparing now to then. Are we better, obviously, but getting to the tourney is not the bar and that is where we are at. We are 6-5 in Brad’s tenure over 5 years is not where we need to be.
Last year was unique because all 4 teams were historically good. All 4 were in the top ten best teams ever since KenPom started.
The final 4 teams this year had Kenpom defensive rankings in the top ten: (Florida #6, Houston #1, Duke #5, and Auburn #9). Pulling out to the Elite 8 teams -- #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #9, #28 (Texas Tech), and #39 (Alabama). Maybe you can make it to the final 4 with defensive metrics hovering just inside the top 40, but you put yourself at the disadvantage when you have an off shooting night --see Alabama vs Duke in Elite 8 (or us vs UCONN the year before). The real recipe is having both a solid offense and defense in the top 15 (i.e., having a great defense will keep you in games when your shooting is off).
robertgoulet
IL Board Resident Crooner
- Austin, TX
An even truer recipe for a FF run is the luck of the draw on your side of the bracket.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If you think the recipe for the Illini to make the F4 is to keep the defense around where it is at, and to improve the offense more, then fine. I believe the recipe to success for us is to improve more on the defensive end. Of course there are going to be teams with worse defenses making the final 4, but those are not necessarily sustainable models (they are generally one off teams making fluke extended runs). I believe we need to try to get closer to a top 10 offense and top 25 or 30 defense to have higher likelihood of success. Simply maintaining at top 40 defense is not the recipe. I think that is why there is generally angst about a particular coach from a lot on this board.
We're arguing metrics here, though. Of course I want the defense to improve, that's a straw man on your part (whether intentional or not).
I'm also not arguing for or against Hamer.
So getting back on topic: the original point you contested was that we could make a F4 with a top 40 defense. You said "I don't see it happening", when in reality, it happens nearly every single season with most seasons having multiple teams in the F4 with 40+ ranked defenses.
This is the last I'll say though, as I don't want to clutter the thread with a back and forth or have it devolve into more Zach Hamer discourse lol.
I think this kind of says everything about making the results of a single-elimination tournament the be-all-end-all definition of success.
We actually have had sustainable success in the BU era. Making the tournament every year is sustainable success. Putting up multiple conference banners is sustainable success. Fielding three All-Americans (I'm counting TSJ even though he didn't actually make an AA team) is sustainable success. Getting guys drafted into the NBA is sustainable success.
Tournament success is lightning in a bottle. Yes, I want us to catch it more often and am frustrated we haven't caught it more often. But I would never dream of jettisoning the sustainable success we have had in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.
NC State making the final four is a nice example as Kevin Keatts got hired the same time as BU. Would you trade BU's tenure and trajectory for this? (Will Wade excitement aside... lol)
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Yes, the NCAAT is lightning in a bottle. However, for all of their tourney goofs, Purdue has made 6 S16s in the last decade. Houston and Gonzaga have made nine (!) in the past decade. So you can have “sustained success” in the tourney as well.
I will say, it does seem like there is a pretty heavy correlation between extended tourney runs and getting a top 4 seed. I think that’s been the secret sauce for the Zags in particular, getting some good wins in the non con and then dominating a weak conference to lock in a top 4 seed. Purdue too has had great success in the non con which has helped their seeding.
We are a more cohesive and veteran group this year so I’m optimistic we can snag a couple more marquee non con games and avoid some of the toe stubs we had last year that pushed us down to the 6 line. For all the talk about how we got a good draw this year (we did), we still needed to beat a higher seed to make the second weekend.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
And with the way the game is changing with the new portal rules, I think is even more important to be a top 4 seed going into tourney.
Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2025
These are the all-time, round-by-round records for every seed in the March Madness men's tournament from 1985 (when the field expanded) to 2025.
www.ncaa.com
If you remove the injuries and illnesses of last season, maybe we are a 4 or even a 3. I think that moves us on to Sweet 16 with a better second round matchup.
I only wish Brad can have a fluke tourney year like Keatts... We will see what happens this year but it frustrates me that Brad is not addressing (so far) an obvious hole. Even Puke knows you need an X&O coach... Keatts is probably not a coach you can fix at the P4 level but Underwood can definitely do better...
Sure, you keep getting to the tourney with high seeds, and it absolutely increases your odds of of making a sustained run.
The three teams you've cited have done that better than us. I'm also going to make a bold prediction that Matt Painter, Mark Few, and Kelvin Sampson are also three coaches who will never be the head coach of Illinois.
Like I said, I am frustrated we haven't gotten there more and want us to do better. But I also don't think we should throw the baby out with the bathwater. Let's say this season Illinois comes in 2nd place in the conference to Purdue (Painter strikes again), ends up as a 4-seed, and gets bounced in a close game to a good 5-seed in round 2. Should BU be on the hot seat for that? Or what if we win the conference, get a 2-seed, and get bounced in round 2 to a highly under-seeded 7 (Loyola part deux).
The sentiment on this board seems to be yes in either scenario (or any other scenario where we don't at least make the S16). I'm not sure that would make sense.
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