Again I think this is vastly overstating the case. Coward is showing up as 1st round on some mocks. Other teams have high-priced players that may opt to stay in the draft (like Michigan). If Kansas were to low-ball Sarr I am confident other teams would jump in. Barcelona is not the only Euroleague team that would want Sarr. In fact, Real Madrid might like and be willing to pay for the opportunity to roster a guy who was once a prized possession of their bitter rival.4m --> 2m is just me reiterating what other people (yet people I think probably know) have said. The telling part is that all of their leverage (Illinois, Duke, Oregon, NBA, Barcelona) has now completely vanished.
And $4 million is what they were asking, not what anyone was paying. When negotiating you always ask for a really high amount, not expecting to get it but hoping to draw the offers up. There's even a term for it - it is called "anchoring." The side asking for money tries to "anchor" high and the side who would have to pay tries to "anchor" low. There's a whole host of psychology behind it that shows you get more money if you anchor high, even if it's not a realistic ask, because the other side compares future negotiations to the starting point. And this is proof positive it's working. If Sarr gets $2 million he's increased his NIL deal by something in the$500k to $1M range, and you think his camp is "in shambles" over it. Kansas fans might think they got a bargain. But in the end Sarr got more money, not less. Maybe it ends up there was point at which he could have done better, but it seems likely this process will have succeeded in increasing his NIL from where it was when we thought we had him.