Illini Football 2025

[MajorNathanMaxwellJanice]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ball-fpi-power-index-best-matchups-title-odds

There was most definitely a write up by espn when their 2025 FPI was released.

initially, that separate table page had not yet been updated to add 2025. Once it was, then links directed to the bare table. But the original article by the fpi dude is still out there to be found.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...ball-fpi-power-index-best-matchups-title-odds

There was most definitely a write up by espn when their 2025 FPI was released.

initially, that separate table page had not yet been updated to add 2025. Once it was, then links directed to the bare table. But the original article by the fpi dude is still out there to be found.

OK fair enough. Dumb by ESPN to put so much weight on a meaningless formula (I think even KenPom has said not to put too much stock into his rankings until at least a couple weeks into the season). But definitely not "intentional disrespect" to Illinois.

Meanwhile a different ESPN formula (SP+) ranked us at #19: https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-college-football-sp+-rankings-every-fbs-team

 

[MajorNathanMaxwellJanice]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-college-football-sp+-rankings-every-fbs-team

Been puzzled why so much discussion about ESPN FPI in this thread with little (any?) about ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+.

The latter makes much more sense, I’d submit.

SP+ putting Illini o/u at 8.7.

I’ll take the over, fwiw.

This is the year the program gets breaks through the 10 win ceiling (1983, 2001, 2024) to set a new season total wins record.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...-college-football-sp+-rankings-every-fbs-team

Been puzzled why so much discussion about ESPN FPI in this thread with little (any?) about ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+.

The latter makes much more sense, I’d submit.

SP+ putting Illini o/u at 8.7.

I’ll take the over, fwiw.

This is the year the program gets breaks through the 10 win ceiling (1983, 2001, 2024) to set a new season total wins record.

Because there's a portion of our fanbase that loves the idea that everyone is out to get us.

We are finally in a good place in both football and basketball folks, let's abandon this 'woe is me' mentality!

 

[Mr. Tibbs]

Because there's a portion of our fanbase that loves the idea that everyone is out to get us.

We are finally in a good place in both football and basketball folks, let's abandon this 'woe is me' mentality!

I am far from a “woe is me mentality” the last 3 years . but in 2016 ? yea , I was

I know how far we’ve come and how well grounded the program is . but the idiots at ESPN are still living 10 years behind the times .

and yes, there are A LOT of people out there that refuse to believe our program is legit . ESPN is full of them . don’t fool yourself .

 

[Illinir1]

Wasn't sure where to put this: Luke Fickell reveals why the Air Raid system didn’t work in Wisconsin

I hope this means continued/more/worse offensive struggles for Bucky. I know from past Illini Football history, anytime we switched offensive coordinators and schemes, the first year results were not good ("we're learning the system and have to get the right players to fit into it"). Their new offensive coordinator, Jeff Grimes, comes from a one-year stop (2024 5-7) as OC at Kansas, following three years at Baylor (2021 12-2, 2022 6-7, 2023 3-9). I wouldn't think that a loosing record in his last three years, and three of his last four years as an offensive coordinator would be cause for optimism amongst Bucky fans. Welcome to the B1G Mr. Grimes, and good luck.

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

LULZ. the josh pate guy has Luke as the 5th best big ten QB.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

I am far from a “woe is me mentality” the last 3 years . but in 2016 ? yea , I was

I know how far we’ve come and how well grounded the program is . but the idiots at ESPN are still living 10 years behind the times .

and yes, there are A LOT of people out there that refuse to believe our program is legit . ESPN is full of them . don’t fool yourself .

As I pointed out before, FPI is a computer.

 

[Mr. Tibbs]

As I pointed out before, FPI is a computer.

and as mentioned before , people are in control of computers and edit their output should they choose .

stop denying reality .
my god , does your dad work for ESPN

 

[battle]

As I pointed out before, FPI is a computer.

but humans choose what computer model(s) to use

 

[the juiceman cometh]

but humans choose what computer model(s) to use

ESPN has been using FPI since 2014. Do you think they designed a computer model over a decade ago (when Tim Beckman was our coach) with the specific intent of underrating Illinois' chances of success in the 2025 football season?

 

[Marshall_Lucky]

ESPN has been using FPI since 2014. Do you think they designed a computer model over a decade ago (when Tim Beckman was our coach) with the specific intent of underrating Illinois' chances of success in the 2025 football season?

 

[Ander1345]

We won a lot of very close games last year. I've said it before that luck is some aspect of it, but look at Nebraska under Frost. At some point it is not just good or bad breaks, but coaches and players creating success.

I dont think we will be a team that just blows out other teams regularly, but the detail orientated staff and system will always give us a high floor.

Honestly 7-5 is still a success to me from where we have been. It would be a little on the bittersweet side, but I think another 8 win season and you have to talk about Bielema being one of the best hires in cfb period in the last 20 years or so considering where we were.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

We won a lot of very close games last year. I've said it before that luck is some aspect of it, but look at Nebraska under Frost. At some point it is not just good or bad breaks, but coaches and players creating success.

I dont think we will be a team that just blows out other teams regularly, but the detail orientated staff and system will always give us a high floor.

Honestly 7-5 is still a success to me from where we have been. It would be a little on the bittersweet side, but I think another 8 win season and you have to talk about Bielema being one of the best hires in cfb period in the last 20 years or so considering where we were.

I agree with you. I think there is something to the idea that "clutch" performance is its own separate skill. I'm a tennis fan, and an interesting thing in tennis is that not every point is created equal. Because of the way scoring works, some points mean more in the context of a match than others. You can win more points and lose a match, and vice versa. And some players have a knack for winning the important points. Those are often the players that end up winning a bunch of Grand Slams. Like, here's a representative stat. Roger Federer only won 54% of the points he played in his career. But he won 80% of his matches. In the 2019 Wimbledon Final, Federer lost to Djokovic, another player that has a knack for winning the big points, even though Federer won more points (and more games). I think you can argue that our record in close games is a reflection of something our team did well, rather than just luck.

 

[lstewart53x3]

I agree with you. I think there is something to the idea that "clutch" performance is its own separate skill. I'm a tennis fan, and an interesting thing in tennis is that not every point is created equal. Because of the way scoring works, some points mean more in the context of a match than others. You can win more points and lose a match, and vice versa. And some players have a knack for winning the important points. Those are often the players that end up winning a bunch of Grand Slams. Like, here's a representative stat. Roger Federer only won 54% of the points he played in his career. But he won 80% of his matches. In the 2019 Wimbledon Final, Federer lost to Djokovic, another player that has a knack for winning the big points, even though Federer won more points (and more games). I think you can argue that our record in close games is a reflection of something our team did well, rather than just luck.

Close games in college football are part luck for sure. If Rutgers doesn’t call timeout on our missed field goal, we lose that game.

But the other 80%, IMO, is coaching and quarterback play.

Coaching includes both preparation pre-game and late-game clock management.

And if you have a quarterback who can march down the field late and score, you’ve got a chance in every close game, as we saw last year.

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

Close games in college football are part luck for sure. If Rutgers doesn’t call timeout on our missed field goal, we lose that game.

But the other 80%, IMO, is coaching and quarterback play.

Coaching includes both preparation pre-game and late-game clock management.

And if you have a quarterback who can march down the field late and score, you’ve got a chance in every close game, as we saw last year.

the luck is both ways. if Jacas doesn't have one of the dumbest unsportsman penalties I've ever seen after we had them stopped on 4th down, they don't ever score their last TD IIRC.

i'd argue Bret going for an impossible 60 yd FG in bad weather instead of a much more managable 4th&13 is pretty fools drool too.

it's just the one that's at the end gets the most recognition.

all in all - do we lose if they don't call the TO? Yes. Did we deserve to lose altogether? Probably. But it goes both ways.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

and as mentioned before , people are in control of computers and edit their output should they choose .

stop denying reality .
my god , does your dad work for ESPN

ESPN cares enough about Illinois to manipulate FPI results to specifically underrate Illinois? While we're at it, COVID was made in a lab specifically to extend our basketball teams steak of not making the tourney and the CIA gave Matthew Mayer all those Monster energy drinks.

 

[Mr. Tibbs]

it comes down to a few things
good line play ,good quarterback , but most importantly it’s doing the fundamentals properly .

for once , we are strong in doing the basic things really well . that’s why we won about 2 games last year we normally wouldn’t .

luck played a part in 2 w’s . but doing the important little things really well is why we were 10-3. it’s why we should win 9+ this year

 

[lstewart53x3]

the luck is both ways. if Jacas doesn't have one of the dumbest unsportsman penalties I've ever seen after we had them stopped on 4th down, they don't ever score their last TD IIRC.

i'd argue Bret going for an impossible 60 yd FG in bad weather instead of a much more managable 4th&13 is pretty fools drool too.

it's just the one that's at the end gets the most recognition.

all in all - do we lose if they don't call the TO? Yes. Did we deserve to lose altogether? Probably. But it goes both ways.

Yes of course, luck goes both ways.

And there are things you can do to increase your luck (be better prepared, have a good qb, etc).

But luck is absolutely a factor and if you win 5 out of 6 one score games in a single season (83.3%), you’ve had a lucky year.

Here’s a couple of examples:

Nick Saban, in his 17 years at Alabama, went 30-20 in one score games.

I’d imagine that in many of those games, he was the best coach on the field with the best players on the field, yet he only won 60% of his one score games.

Which to me that seems about right. Over the course of a decade or two, if you’re a great coach, you win slightly more close games than you lose. Average coaches are probably around 50/50 and then coaches who get fired are likely quite a bit under .500.

Here’s Brett’s record in one score games at Illinois:

1-3
2-2
2-4
1-5
5-1

11-15 overall.

So I think it’s safe to assume that if we have 6 one score games this season, we likely won’t win 5 of them again.

 

[pvaughn8]

Yes of course, luck goes both ways.

And there are things you can do to increase your luck (be better prepared, have a good qb, etc).

But luck is absolutely a factor and if you win 5 out of 6 one score games in a single season (83.3%), you’ve had a lucky year.

Here’s a couple of examples:

Nick Saban, in his 17 years at Alabama, went 30-20 in one score games.

I’d imagine that in many of those games, he was the best coach on the field with the best players on the field, yet he only won 60% of his one score games.

Which to me that seems about right. Over the course of a decade or two, if you’re a great coach, you win slightly more close games than you lose. Average coaches are probably around 50/50 and then coaches who get fired are likely quite a bit under .500.

Here’s Brett’s record in one score games at Illinois:

1-3
2-2
2-4
1-5
5-1

11-15 overall.

So I think it’s safe to assume that if we have 6 one score games this season, we likely won’t win 5 of them again.

Yeah let's shoot for 4 one score games instead of 6

 

[Joel Goodson]

Because there's a portion of our fanbase that loves the idea that everyone is out to get us.

it's not paranoia if it's true

 

[MajorNathanMaxwellJanice]

Yes of course, luck goes both ways.

And there are things you can do to increase your luck (be better prepared, have a good qb, etc).

But luck is absolutely a factor and if you win 5 out of 6 one score games in a single season (83.3%), you’ve had a lucky year.

Here’s a couple of examples:

Nick Saban, in his 17 years at Alabama, went 30-20 in one score games.

I’d imagine that in many of those games, he was the best coach on the field with the best players on the field, yet he only won 60% of his one score games.

Which to me that seems about right. Over the course of a decade or two, if you’re a great coach, you win slightly more close games than you lose. Average coaches are probably around 50/50 and then coaches who get fired are likely quite a bit under .500.

Here’s Brett’s record in one score games at Illinois:

1-3
2-2
2-4
1-5
5-1

11-15 overall.

So I think it’s safe to assume that if we have 6 one score games this season, we likely won’t win 5 of them again.

Uh, about that list of Bret’s record at Illinois. Is that meant to suggest that Bret has completed five seasons as Illini HC?

 

[AZILL]

ESPN cares enough about Illinois to manipulate FPI results to specifically underrate Illinois? While we're at it, COVID was made in a lab specifically to extend our basketball teams steak of not making the tourney and the CIA gave Matthew Mayer all those Monster energy drinks.

You hit on 2 of the 3, I'll let you figure out the odd one....

 

[blackdog]

it comes down to a few things
good line play ,good quarterback , but most importantly it’s doing the fundamentals properly .

for once , we are strong in doing the basic things really well . that’s why we won about 2 games last year we normally wouldn’t .

luck played a part in 2 w’s . but doing the important little things really well is why we were 10-3. it’s why we should win 9+ this year

We know how much BU preaches and practices situational football. All the players talk about how prepared they are for those moments because they feel like they've been there in practice. Especially now that the talent level is going to be even with most other teams that preparation will pay off even more.

 

[drsmitty74]

We know how much BU preaches and practices situational football. All the players talk about how prepared they are for those moments because they feel like they've been there in practice. Especially now that the talent level is going to be even with most other teams that preparation will pay off even more.

I wish he'd focus on out of bounds plays instead of situational football.