I agree with most of this. I said early on in thread that I didn’t see him getting 500M. Then again, I’m not a great a predicting these things. Point of my post was just that I don’t think GMs are going to hold back based on “injury prone” or having played in dome in Houston for most of his career since overall he’s been better on road.If you were Hoyer, how much is too much at this point?
Playing RF in Wrigley is not easy. When the wind is blowing in, it's damn near impossible to fence one. Conversely, when the wind is blowing out, not much stays in the ballpark.
Last year, how many games did he play? This season, his numbers are average and that's because he will take a walk. He's currently being benched. He's not running out ground balls. He's being boo'd by the most loyal fans in the planet.
If you were the Cubs, would you break the $250M barrier over 8 years to keep him? That's more than $30M per year and let's face it, given the expectations, he's been a bust. There's just no argument against that at this point. Like you said, he can have just an outstanding September, which changes the outlook.
Maybe the expectations were too high, but they were that of a $500M player. That type of money is paid to guys who can carry a team.
To be clear, he's not the only one that's wet the bed the second half of the year. Their ability to score runs, especially late in games, is abysmal. He's a huge part of that.
Edit: In Houston, he had FAR more protection in the order.
I really don’t know how much he’ll get. I’d guess north of $300M, but the looming work stoppage could change things. He’s not a Judge or Soto, but he’s in the next tier. Somebody will pay up.