Illini Football 2025

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#251      
MrBlueHandsOG
Random Thoughts:
1- Luke Altmyer is agruably the best QB in Illinois history.

2-Next year is a massive step back, with so many guys graduating or hears to the League.

3- Has the introduction of CFP capped Illinois’ potential? If we aren’t in CFP then best we can ever do is Citrus Bowl? What happens if we run the table and don’t get a Top 12 bid? Each year becomes a race to Citrus Bowl? Saddened by this truth.

4- Papa Del’s isn’t as good as it was 20 yrs ago. It’s approaching Bonnie Jean’s level, which is no knock on BJ’s just a frame of reference.

I L L!
 
#252      
lstewart53x3
If (and this is a really big if) we win the next two, would we have the best playoff resume in the nation? Certainly top 5, right?

Our resume would include:

- 6-1 in a top 10 strength of schedule
- two top 25 wins (including a win over the #1 team in the country)
- a road win by 26 against a P4 opponent
- only loss coming to a top 10 ranked playoff contender

Of course we’d still have a giant ding in our resume from the *how* we lost the Indiana game, but how many teams would have a resume that strong?
 
#254      
Fly Illini Fly!
lstewart53x3 said:
If (and this is a really big if) we win the next two, would we have the best playoff resume in the nation? Certainly top 5, right?

Our resume would include:

- 6-1 in a top 10 strength of schedule
- two top 25 wins (including a win over the #1 team in the country)
- a road win by 26 against a P4 opponent
- only loss coming to a top 10 ranked playoff contender

Of course we’d still have a giant ding in our resume from the *how* we lost the Indiana game, but how many teams would have a resume that strong?
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Probably Oregon. By that time they'll also have beaten IU.
 
#255      
BrownTown
MrBlueHandsOG said:
Random Thoughts:
1- Luke Altmyer is agruably the best QB in Illinois history.

2-Next year is a massive step back, with so many guys graduating or hears to the League.

3- Has the introduction of CFP capped Illinois’ potential? If we aren’t in CFP then best we can ever do is Citrus Bowl? What happens if we run the table and don’t get a Top 12 bid? Each year becomes a race to Citrus Bowl? Saddened by this truth.

4- Papa Del’s isn’t as good as it was 20 yrs ago. It’s approaching Bonnie Jean’s level, which is no knock on BJ’s just a frame of reference.

I L L!
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2.

5 in 5 passes and all of a sudden things don't look as bleak.
All RBs, All WRs, All DBs eligible to return.

It would also flood the portal market with OL/DL, QBs etc who thought THIS would be their year only to find out the person they are behind could be coming back. Would be the biggest wrinkle since the multiple transfers rule.

Teams like Ohio State still send all their best to the league while a team like Illinois could bring back a Hank Beatty or even a X Scott if you have the cash and luck on your side should the NFL not give him the grade he wants (I don't foresee it but possible).

It really becomes 3 or low 4 stars at age 23 vs high 4 and low 5 stars at age 20. Could make for a very interesting shake up and further lead to more parody in the sport.
 
#256      
BrownTown
It would be very similar to the COVID year where you have hundreds of extra players who everyone thought would be out of eligiblity all of a sudden flooding the proverbial market.

If there was a year to be in desperate need of a reload...the year that 5 in 5 passes, will be it.
 
#257      
ChiefKingfisher
Dan said:
^^ best I can tell yes this is correct. AP Poll rankings of the teams at the time the game was played-

2011 vs #22 Arizona State (W 17-14)
2019 vs #6 Wisconsin (W 24-23)
2021 at #7 Penn State (W 20-18 9OT)

link
link
Click to expand...

We also beat a ranked Minnesota team during that time period. So I think the 3 ranked win stat is incorrect.
 
#258      
RabidDawgClassic
BrownTown said:
2.

5 in 5 passes and all of a sudden things don't look as bleak.
All RBs, All WRs, All DBs eligible to return.

It would also flood the portal market with OL/DL, QBs etc who thought THIS would be their year only to find out the person they are behind could be coming back. Would be the biggest wrinkle since the multiple transfers rule.

Teams like Ohio State still send all their best to the league while a team like Illinois could bring back a Hank Beatty or even a X Scott if you have the cash and luck on your side should the NFL not give him the grade he wants (I don't foresee it but possible).

It really becomes 3 or low 4 stars at age 23 vs high 4 and low 5 stars at age 20. Could make for a very interesting shake up and further lead to more parody in the sport.
Click to expand...
Is there a chance Luke could return as well if 5 in 5 passes AND they grandfather in those who had taken a redshirt year? Tate and Steve Kelly were talking about that and mentioned that, with these type of rulings, the NCAA generally takes such things into consideration. I interpreted that as Luke’s 2021 redshirt year would essentially not exist within the context of the five years.
 
#259      
therealmiket86
RabidDawgClassic said:
Is there a chance Luke could return as well if 5 in 5 passes AND they grandfather in those who had taken a redshirt year? Tate and Steve Kelly were talking about that and mentioned that, with these type of rulings, the NCAA generally takes such things into consideration. I interpreted that as Luke’s 2021 redshirt year would essentially not exist within the context of the five years.
Click to expand...

The way I understand it he would have 1 more year. Guys like Gabe and X will go pro but besides that everyone could come back
 
#260      
Illinifan1154
ChiefKingfisher said:
We also beat a ranked Minnesota team during that time period. So I think the 3 ranked win stat is incorrect.
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Minnesota was only ranked in the CFP poll and not AP when we beat them in 2021. Minnesota was only ranked in the Coaches Poll and not the AP poll when we beat them in 2014. See below from the website. The stat from Fornelli likely should’ve specified AP ranked wins because most TV broadcasts switch to CFP once those rankings come out.

https://fightingillini.com/sports/2016/8/16/football-vs-ranked-opponents.aspx
 
#262      
Fighter of the Nightman
I saw someone saying we want Indiana to continue to win ... but do we?? They are a VERY good team, but their performance last week at Iowa makes me think they were EXCEPTIONALLY good vs. us in a way that might not be replicated all year (and it was combined with by far our worst performance). I would think we would want IU to lose a couple unlucky games and drop to 3 losses in the event we can keep gaining momentum and be within striking distance of 10-2...
 
#264      
the juiceman cometh
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I saw someone saying we want Indiana to continue to win ... but do we?? They are a VERY good team, but their performance last week at Iowa makes me think they were EXCEPTIONALLY good vs. us in a way that might not be replicated all year (and it was combined with by far our worst performance). I would think we would want IU to lose a couple unlucky games and drop to 3 losses in the event we can keep gaining momentum and be within striking distance of 10-2...
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For us to make the playoff, I think the magnitude of that loss requires that we be 10-2 and that no more than 3 other Big Ten teams be 10-2. Even better if there are only three 10-2 teams in the conference, and we are one of them. So we will need at least four of OSU, Penn St., Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, and USC to drop to 3 losses. OSU and Oregon aren't losing 3 games (even if Oregon loses to Indiana they likely end up 11-1). Michigan, Maryland, and USC (the dark horse contenders) are likely to get to 3 losses (and we probably don't make it to 10-2 without giving Maryland one of theirs). So that leaves Penn St. and Indiana as the most likely obstacles. Rooting interest wise, it makes the most sense to root for Oregon and OSU winning out their schedules (minus our game against OSU), and then rooting against Indiana and Penn St., as well as the potential dark horse candidates.
 
#265      
STLini25
the juiceman cometh said:
For us to make the playoff, I think the magnitude of that loss requires that we be 10-2 and that no more than 3 other Big Ten teams be 10-2. Even better if there are only three 10-2 teams in the conference, and we are one of them. So we will need at least four of OSU, Penn St., Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland, and USC to drop to 3 losses. OSU and Oregon aren't losing 3 games (even if Oregon loses to Indiana they likely end up 11-1). Michigan, Maryland, and USC (the dark horse contenders) are likely to get to 3 losses (and we probably don't make it to 10-2 without giving Maryland one of theirs). So that leaves Penn St. and Indiana as the most likely obstacles. Rooting interest wise, it makes the most sense to root for Oregon and OSU winning out their schedules (minus our game against OSU), and then rooting against Indiana and Penn St., as well as the potential dark horse candidates.
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Good analysis. Going one step further. Indiana plays PSU. If Indiana wins then PSU likely has 3 losses.

We really need PSU to lose to Indiana and OSU.
 
#266      
TheChief4Life
let me start by saying the following:
If we go 11-1, we’re in.
If we go 9-3, we’re out.
So all of this “what if”ism revolves purely around us going 10-2.

If Indiana goes 10-2, we’re out. If Indiana goes 9-3, sorry… but we’re out.

My hunch is that if Illinois goes 10-2, there will either be four teams from the Big Ten in the CFP and Indiana and Illinois will both be one of them, or there will be three, and it won’t be either Illinois or Indiana.

You can come up with 1 million scenarios as to how we get to that point, but I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario in which a 10-2 Illinois goes to the CFP with a 10-2 or 9-3 Indiana in existence.
 
#267      
Battle89
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I saw someone saying we want Indiana to continue to win ... but do we?? They are a VERY good team, but their performance last week at Iowa makes me think they were EXCEPTIONALLY good vs. us in a way that might not be replicated all year (and it was combined with by far our worst performance). I would think we would want IU to lose a couple unlucky games and drop to 3 losses in the event we can keep gaining momentum and be within striking distance of 10-2...
Click to expand...
People can fill my head with all the best logic but I will have a very difficult time pulling for Indiana at any time in the near future.
 
#268      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
TheChief4Life said:
let me start by saying the following:
If we go 11-1, we’re in.
If we go 9-3, we’re out.
So all of this “what if”ism revolves purely around us going 10-2.

If Indiana goes 10-2, we’re out. If Indiana goes 9-3, sorry… but we’re out.

My hunch is that if Illinois goes 10-2, there will either be four teams from the Big Ten in the CFP and Indiana and Illinois will both be one of them, or there will be three, and it won’t be either Illinois or Indiana.

You can come up with 1 million scenarios as to how we get to that point, but I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario in which a 10-2 Illinois goes to the CFP with a 10-2 or 9-3 Indiana in existence.
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If Indiana goes 11-1, that likely means they beat PSU en route. Barring crazy brand bias, 9-3 Penn State will be below 10-2 Illinois.
 
#269      
STLini25
TheChief4Life said:
let me start by saying the following:
If we go 11-1, we’re in.
If we go 9-3, we’re out.
So all of this “what if”ism revolves purely around us going 10-2.

If Indiana goes 10-2, we’re out. If Indiana goes 9-3, sorry… but we’re out.

My hunch is that if Illinois goes 10-2, there will either be four teams from the Big Ten in the CFP and Indiana and Illinois will both be one of them, or there will be three, and it won’t be either Illinois or Indiana.

You can come up with 1 million scenarios as to how we get to that point, but I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario in which a 10-2 Illinois goes to the CFP with a 10-2 or 9-3 Indiana in existence.
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I’ll wager that in no scenario BT only gets 3 teams
 
#271      
TheChief4Life
STLini25 said:
I’ll wager that in no scenario BT only gets 3 teams
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Agreed. Meaning we need Indiana to go 11-1 or better. Illinois will not be the fourth big ten team if there’s a choice between Illinois and Indiana…. Or pretty much anyone else.

I feel like both you and the previous poster are adding validity to the “Indiana must win” argument I’m portraying.

Indiana losing only makes Illinois look worse, not better.
 
#272      
Fighter of the Nightman
TheChief4Life said:
let me start by saying the following:
If we go 11-1, we’re in.
If we go 9-3, we’re out.
So all of this “what if”ism revolves purely around us going 10-2.

If Indiana goes 10-2, we’re out. If Indiana goes 9-3, sorry… but we’re out.

My hunch is that if Illinois goes 10-2, there will either be four teams from the Big Ten in the CFP and Indiana and Illinois will both be one of them, or there will be three, and it won’t be either Illinois or Indiana.

You can come up with 1 million scenarios as to how we get to that point, but I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario in which a 10-2 Illinois goes to the CFP with a 10-2 or 9-3 Indiana in existence.
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Eh, I think that game hurt our collective psyche more than it damaged our CFP brand for the entire season ... I mean, the national narrative on Saturday/Sunday was DECIDEDLY praising how we got unexpectedly punked last week and bounced back in a very admirable way. So if there is a scenario where we finish 10-2, losing at Washington/Wisconsin but BEATING Ohio State ... I just don't see any way a 9-3 Indiana team gets in over us simply because they beat us back in mid-September at their place, no matter how bad. The magnitude of the loss will be further back in people's minds and not as important - JMO, of course.

If that same 10-2 Illinois + 9-3 Indiana scenario happens where we DON'T beat Ohio State, I guess it gets more interesting. However, let's remember that Indiana is already 5-0; if they finish 9-3 and we assume two of the obvious losses are at Oregon and at Penn State, the third loss would have to be one of the following remaining games, in order of embarrassment...

at Maryland
vs. Michigan State
at Purdue
vs. UCLA

If they drop any one of those games, that will carry as much weight with the committee as an impressive beatdown of Illinois in September, especially if the passage of time continues to make it look like a bit of a perfect storm of Indiana's best game plus our worse game, rather than Indiana just being head-and-shoulders THAT much better than we are.

EDIT: However, I do appreciate your scenario of Indiana going 11-1 and allowing us to just not worry about them at all. I personally think any 10-2 Big Ten team gets in over any 9-3 Big Ten team after a glance at everyone's schedules, and if Indiana is winning at PSU, it almost CERTAINLY means PSU is going 9-3 (also losing at OSU), and 8-4 honestly isn't off the table with a game at Iowa on the schedule...

I'm taking it as a given that Oregon and OSU make the CFP. So, as you said, our concern is who do we want to fight for the third and fourth spot if we can keep winning? I think whether or not you want Indiana better than 9-3 depends almost entirely on if you think they have a prayer at winning one of the PSU and Oregon road games ... because I agree that 10-2 Indiana definitely gets in over 10-2 Illinois. So, the worst case scenario for us it seems is a 10-2 Indiana squad, as they didn't knock PSU out of contention and they are not below us, either.
 
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#273      
the juiceman cometh
TheChief4Life said:
let me start by saying the following:
If we go 11-1, we’re in.
If we go 9-3, we’re out.
So all of this “what if”ism revolves purely around us going 10-2.

If Indiana goes 10-2, we’re out. If Indiana goes 9-3, sorry… but we’re out.

My hunch is that if Illinois goes 10-2, there will either be four teams from the Big Ten in the CFP and Indiana and Illinois will both be one of them, or there will be three, and it won’t be either Illinois or Indiana.

You can come up with 1 million scenarios as to how we get to that point, but I don’t think there’s any realistic scenario in which a 10-2 Illinois goes to the CFP with a 10-2 or 9-3 Indiana in existence.
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Why would a 9-3 Indiana prevent 10-2 Illinois from getting in?

I'd think a competitive game against OSU and running the table after would go a long way to clearing up the stink of one terrible game in September. If not, we're already SOL regardless of what IU does.

Also there are crazier things that have happened than PSU beating IU but also losing at Iowa or something.
 
#274      
TheChief4Life
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Eh, I think that game hurt our collective psyche more than it damaged our CFP brand for the entire season ... I mean, the national narrative on Saturday/Sunday was DECIDEDLY praising how we got unexpectedly punked last week and bounced back in a very admirable way. So if there is a scenario where we finish 10-2, losing at Washington/Wisconsin but BEATING Ohio State ... I just don't see any way a 9-3 Indiana team gets in over us simply because they beat us back in mid-September at their place, no matter how bad. The magnitude of the loss will be further back in people's minds and not as important - JMO, of course.

If that same 10-2 Illinois + 9-3 Indiana scenario happens where we DON'T beat Ohio State, I guess it gets more interesting. However, let's remember that Indiana is already 5-0; if they finish 9-3 and we assume two of the obvious losses are at Oregon and at Penn State, the third loss would have to be one of the following remaining games, in order of embarrassment...

at Maryland
vs. Michigan State
at Purdue
vs. UCLA

If they drop any one of those games, that will carry as much weight with the committee as an impressive beatdown of Illinois in September, especially if the passage of time continues to make it look like a bit of a perfect storm of Indiana's best game plus our worse game, rather than Indiana just being head-and-shoulders THAT much better than we are.

EDIT: However, I do appreciate your scenario of Indiana going 11-1 and allowing us to just not worry about them at all. I personally think any 10-2 Big Ten team gets in over any 9-3 Big Ten team after a glance at everyone's schedules, and if Indiana is winning at PSU, it almost CERTAINLY means PSU is going 9-3 (also losing at OSU), and 8-4 honestly isn't off the table with a game at Iowa on the schedule...

I'm taking it as a given that Oregon and OSU make the CFP. So, as you said, our concern is who do we want to fight for the third and fourth spot if we can keep winning? I think whether or not you want Indiana better than 9-3 depends almost entirely on if you think they have a prayer at winning one of the PSU and Oregon road games ... because I agree that 10-2 Indiana definitely gets in over 10-2 Illinois. So, the worst case scenario for us it seems is a 10-2 Indiana squad, as they didn't knock PSU out of contention and they are not below us, either.
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I agree that time will obviously favor Illinois. I’m glad that game happened first in the big ten schedule instead of last. Again though, I think you are missing my point (and again validated it). I’m not saying a 9-3 Indiana gets in OVER a 10-2 Illinois. I’m saying there’s no way a 10-2 Illinois gets in if Indiana goes 9-3. Indiana doesn’t go either.

I suppose a win over Ohio state would change the narrative, and god I hope that happens. But as of right now, I just don’t see a realistic path to the CFP if Indiana goes 10-2 or worse.
 
#275      
lstewart53x3
11-1 in
9-3 out
10-2 conditional.

4 B1G teams likely make it. If one of the current top 4 goes 10-2 (OSU/PSU/Oregon/Indiana), they likely get the nod above us, even if we’re also 10-2.

I believe we’d get the nod at 10-2 above any of those 4 if they go 9-3.

Where things get really hairy is if we go 10-2 and so does another B1G team not currently in the top 4. Would we get the nod over a 10-2 Michigan or 10-2 Nebraska for example?
 
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