My feelings about this game have evolved. While I thought losing Tomi put us at a big disadvantage, I no longer think so. I think we win this and it is not that close. They have Toppin and Anderson and mostly role players, and not a lot of depth in comparison to us.
Bam may not completely shut down Anderson, but I don't think we have to worry that he is going to go off on us for 25 or 30.
As for Toppin, I don't think that Tomi not being available is going to matter that much in how effective Toppin will be offensively. He would probably get 22 and 10 or so regardless. We have the front court depth. If Z and Mirk can't avoid fouling him, I think that Ben can guard him. Ben got a deservedly bad rap in the early season last year for his defense, but by year end it was a lot better. I still go back to the job he did on TKR late last year to support the idea he can defend someone like Toppin in the post. Now that he has added 25 pounds it should be even easier for him. He won't stop him, but I think he can slow him down without fouling out. We could play Z on their 4 and he can help with and hunt blocks on Toppin, while Mirk or Ben guard him. And Jakstys can give us some minutes as well. Toppin may be the best big in the country, but I don't think we have to worry about depth in the frontcourt when defending him.
I think the only way they win is that if someone else on TT has the game of their life, or we just choke. In the past I might worry that some unknown would make 8 of 10 threes or something against us, but I don't worry too much about that or the choking aspect. We have veterans. They will find a way to get going if shots aren't falling in the beginning. And they can help the freshman acclimate to what I hope is a crazy atmosphere tonight.
So, my prediction is we start fast, get up by 12 in the first half, then make our free throws and hold on to win by 9 - Illinois 92, Texas Tech 83.