December Bracketology

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#2      
NarrowJ
Doesn't seem like there's a specific time NET rankings get updated each day. Sometimes its 8 AM, sometimes its 10 AM... must just be whenever the intern gets their coffee and clicks the button lol
 
#8      
Fighter of the Nightman
the juiceman cometh said:
For all the griping of less than a week ago, 2-2 v. Q1 is not a bad place to be going into conference play.
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As a possible alleged griper, I think most of us were pretty clear that we would love to see the type of improvement we saw in Nashville, and if we saw that improvement our worries would disappear! Our performance vs. UConn would be just as worrying as ever if I had concerns that it would be a regular occurrence, but the toughness we brought vs. Tennessee definitely has me now believing the narrative that these guys just needed more practice and more time to get healthy! As you said, we are back in a really good spot ... and that is part of the reason I was so antsy before the Tennessee game. It was a must-win to get back into that top 2/3 seed conversation, and it feels really good to be back in it!! :cool:

Our updated resume and upcoming games, as of today:

Quad 1 | 2-2
vs. #1 Michigan
at #9 Purdue
at #10 Michigan State
L 86-90 vs. #11 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
L 61-74 vs. #7 UConn (New York, NY)
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
at #24 Nebraska
vs. #24 Nebraska
at #28 Iowa
W 75-62 vs. #33 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
at #36 USC
at #44 Ohio State
at #50 UCLA
at #73 Northwestern

Quad 2 | 0-0
vs. #32 Indiana
vs. #55 Wisconsin
vs. #68 Washington
vs. #71 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
vs. #73 Northwestern
vs. #83 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)

Quad 3 | 2-0
vs. #132 Minnesota
W 84-65 vs. #147 Colgate
W 87-73 vs. #153 UTRGV
at #168 Maryland

Quad 4 | 3-0
vs. #168 Maryland
vs. #174 Oregon
W 98-58 vs. #189 LIU
vs. #192 Rutgers
W 113-70 vs. #208 FGCU
vs. #250 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #348 Jackson State

A Couple Notes
1. Since the Big Ten and the world seem intent on forcing Northwestern down our throats as our most hated rival just so we can fit into the manufactured rivalry grid the conference wants, we will play the Mildcats twice per year forever. On that note, in a day and age when you only play THREE Big Ten opponents twice, it is really in our best interests for them to be in at least the top 75, making our Champaign game Quad 2 and our Evanston game Quad 1. They're #73 right now, so we need them to stabilize a bit ... especially since they always seem to be up for us when we play in that little gym.

2. On a somewhat similar scheduling note, we will always get Missouri at a neutral site, and it is thus important for them to be either top 50 (making Braggin' Rights Quad 1) or at least top 100 (making it Quad 2). They are #71 after the blowout loss to Kansas, so we at least need them to beat up on some patsies and not tank in SEC play. Braggin' Rights can truly be a game where records and rankings are thrown out the window, and we want that to be a pretty good win or respectable loss every single year.

3. They'll probably end up dropping, but it's sort of a blessing that we got Nebraska twice and both games are Quad 1 as of now, due to the Huskers being in the top 30! I'm not disrespecting them at all, as I think they're good ... but we have sort of had their number, winning 10 of the last 11, and we haven't lost to them in Champaign since John Groce was on the sidelines.

4. On the opposite end of the spectrum, playing Maryland this year sucks! I've mentioned it before, but our game in College Park to end the year is Quad 3, and our home date vs. them is Quad 4 (!!). That is crazy for a Big Ten opponent, especially one that has absolutely owned us for some reason, so I hope they stabilize. On that general note, it is pretty crazy that we have THREE Quad 4 home games in Big Ten play, as of now. We cannot afford to take any of them lightly, as losing any of these would be a resume killer that we have not experienced and that would make any of our "dud" losses of the last 5 years look like child's play (we have not had a Quad 4 loss at all since the 2019-2020 season).
 
#16      
mysterio2525
NarrowJ said:
I actually agree with it being top 75... road games are hard, man
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they should go to 8 tier system. with the first 4 tiers being what we call now quad 1A and quad 1b, and quad 2... because that's the big 4 (hey a quad) they look at already.

the other 4 tiers can be segmented however but with the last 2 tiers really getting those current quad 3 and 4 tiers groups identified for bad losses and poor scheduling. it's not much different than now but I think they want to emphasize good wins more so let's get down a level for those.

In a way it's going towards comic book/board game type system and might as well make it fun
 
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#17      
Fighter of the Nightman
RE: The Quad classifications, it would probably be helpful to repost these! Also going to post it in two formats in case one "clicks" a bit better for different folks.

By Location
Home: Quad 1 #1-30, Quad 2 #31-75, Quad 3 #76-160, Quad 4 #161-353
Neutral: Quad 1 #1-50, Quad 2 #51-100, Quad 3 #101-200, Quad 4 #201-353
Away: Quad 1 #1-75, Quad 2 #76-135, Quad 3 #136-240, Quad 4 #241-353

By Quad
Quad 1: #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2: #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3: #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4: #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away

By Big Ten Opponent
#1 Michigan - Quad 1 everywhere
#9 Purdue - Quad 1 everywhere
#10 Michigan State - Quad 1 everywhere
#12 Illinois - Quad 1 everywhere
#20 Indiana - Quad 1 everywhere
#23 Nebraska - Quad 1 everywhere
#29 Iowa - Quad 1 everywhere

#36 USC - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 1 neutral

#51 UCLA - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#54 Ohio State - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#59 Wisconsin - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#68 Washington - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral

#77 Northwestern - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 2 neutral

#107 Penn State - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 3 neutral
#130 Minnesota - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 3 neutral

#171 Maryland - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral
#175 Oregon - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral
#194 Rutgers - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral

So while the rankings will change a lot, assuming we play good basketball and come to play each game, I would say the following, only looking at the current NET Rankings and not things like the Big Ten title race.

Lucky Things for Us
1) Getting #23 Nebraska at home, given they are Quad 1 everywhere and Champaign has historically been a house of horrors for them.
2) Getting #54 Ohio State on the road, as that will remain solidly Quad 1 and it's not an overly intimidating environment.

Unlucky Things For Us
1) Not getting #29 Iowa at home, assuming they could remain in the top 30 (which is a big if). For one, this should be a protected rivalry where we play twice per year. However, they are historically awful in Champaign, and it would be a very good chance at another Quad 1 win.
2) #107 Penn State game being in Philadelphia, as they would be a Quad 2 opponent in their very unintimidating home gym, and they will now be a Quad 3 opponent in a very enclosed, intimidating Palestra (though it wouldn't surprise me if there is a lot of orange in the stands for this Saturday game!!).
3) Traveling to #171 Maryland, as they have our number, it's a long trip and that would be a Quad 3 loss (something almost unheard of for a Big Ten road game). In fact, just getting Maryland twice period, as they seem to be in our heads and losing either one of these would be a resume killer, ESPECIALLY the home game.
 
#18      
mysterio2525
Fighter of the Nightman said:
RE: The Quad classifications, it would probably be helpful to repost these! Also going to post it in two formats in case one "clicks" a bit better for different folks.

By Location
Home: Quad 1 #1-30, Quad 2 #31-75, Quad 3 #76-160, Quad 4 #161-353
Neutral: Quad 1 #1-50, Quad 2 #51-100, Quad 3 #101-200, Quad 4 #201-353
Away: Quad 1 #1-75, Quad 2 #76-135, Quad 3 #136-240, Quad 4 #241-353

By Quad
Quad 1: #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2: #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3: #76-160 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4: #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away

By Big Ten Opponent
#1 Michigan - Quad 1 everywhere
#9 Purdue - Quad 1 everywhere
#10 Michigan State - Quad 1 everywhere
#12 Illinois - Quad 1 everywhere
#20 Indiana - Quad 1 everywhere
#23 Nebraska - Quad 1 everywhere
#29 Iowa - Quad 1 everywhere

#36 USC - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 1 neutral

#51 UCLA - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#54 Ohio State - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#59 Wisconsin - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral
#68 Washington - Quad 2 at home, Quad 1 away, Quad 2 neutral

#77 Northwestern - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 2 neutral

#107 Penn State - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 3 neutral
#130 Minnesota - Quad 3 at home, Quad 2 away, Quad 3 neutral

#171 Maryland - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral
#175 Oregon - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral
#194 Rutgers - Quad 4 at home, Quad 3 away, Quad 3 neutral

So while the rankings will change a lot, assuming we play good basketball and come to play each game, I would say the following, only looking at the current NET Rankings and not things like the Big Ten title race.

Lucky Things for Us
1) Getting #23 Nebraska at home, given they are Quad 1 everywhere and Champaign has historically been a house of horrors for them.
2) Getting #54 Ohio State on the road, as that will remain solidly Quad 1 and it's not an overly intimidating environment.

Unlucky Things For Us
1) Not getting #29 Iowa at home, assuming they could remain in the top 30 (which is a big if). For one, this should be a protected rivalry where we play twice per year. However, they are historically awful in Champaign, and it would be a very good chance at another Quad 1 win.
2) #107 Penn State game being in Philadelphia, as they would be a Quad 2 opponent in their very unintimidating home gym, and they will now be a Quad 3 opponent in a very enclosed, intimidating Palestra (though it wouldn't surprise me if there is a lot of orange in the stands for this Saturday game!!).
3) Traveling to #171 Maryland, as they have our number, it's a long trip and that would be a Quad 3 loss (something almost unheard of for a Big Ten road game). In fact, just getting Maryland twice period, as they seem to be in our heads and losing either one of these would be a resume killer, ESPECIALLY the home game.
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number 1 on the unlucky doesn't worry me, I think they will be in the 40s. so beating then on the road actually guarantees a quad 1 win... thus lucky. just got to win.

definitely agree with the other unlucky scenarios. but Indiana beat Penn State by 89 points yesterday so we should be fine. hopefully we figured out the curse last year against Maryland.... but I fear the Boogeyman always.

the big unlucky thing is having any quad 4 games in conference play.... quad 3 in the big ten in any scenario is bad.
 
#20      
mattcoldagelli
mysterio2525 said:
they should go to 8 tier system. with the first 4 tiers being what we call now quad 1A and quad 1b, and quad 2... because that's the big 4 (hey a quad) they look at already.

the other 4 tiers can be segmented however but with the last 2 tiers really getting those current quad 3 and 4 tiers groups identified for bad losses and poor scheduling. it's not much different than now but I think they want to emphasize good wins more so let's get down a level for those.

In a way it's going towards comic book/board game type system and might as well make it fun
Click to expand...
parks and recreation cones of dunshire GIF
 
#22      
NarrowJ
Moved down 1 spot from 12 to 13 in NET rankings today (jumped by Nebraska, of course… maybe they are pretty good)

Illini 12 ==> 13

UConn 7 ==> 8
Nebraska 23 ==> 12
Alabama 11 ==> 14
Texas Tech 18 ==> 25
Tennessee 32 ==> 36
Ohio State 54 ==> 48

Missouri 75
 
#23      
Illini in Italy
They can’t be good - the Loyalty hive mind says they used to suck, suck today, and will always suck.
 
#24      
Fighter of the Nightman
NarrowJ said:
Moved down 1 spot from 12 to 13 in NET rankings today (jumped by Nebraska, of course… maybe they are pretty good)

Illini 12 ==> 13

UConn 7 ==> 8
Nebraska 23 ==> 12
Alabama 11 ==> 14
Texas Tech 18 ==> 25
Tennessee 32 ==> 36
Ohio State 54 ==> 48

Missouri 75
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One more update of these opponents:

#7 UConn - Safe Quad 1 (need to be top 50)
#11 Nebraska - Safe Quad 1 (need to be top 30)
#16 Alabama - Safe Quad 1 (need to be top 50)
#23 Tennessee - Safe Quad 1 (need to be top 50)
#28 Texas Tech - Borderline Quad 1 (needs to be top 30)
#46 Ohio State - Safe Quad 1 (needs to be top 75)
#78 Missouri - Semi-safe Quad 2 (needs to be top 100)

It would be really, really annoying and unfortunate if Missouri tanks and becomes a Quad 3 opponent by slipping to #101 or worse. That game is just a war most years, and it would suck to (A) not get the proper credit for grinding out a win or (B) let a loss in what is usually a tough game be a blemish on our resume because it's technically Quad 3.
 
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