Come on. Is the 36th ranked offense with the best QB IL has had since Kitner really that much stronger of an argument?
For context, the D is ranked 42nd in efficiency by Connelly.
Last edited:
Coaching Carousel (Football)
- Status
For context, the D is ranked 42nd in efficiency by Connelly.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
Yes, because that ranking means this has been Illinois' best offensive performance in a very long time.
SP+: This is the best offense in 12 seasons.
FEI: This is the best offense in at least 24 seasons (metric doesn't go beyond 2007 but this season is better than all of those).
Going off your statement, FEI is saying that Illinois had their best offense since (at least) Kitner's final season.
The original statement was that I'm surprised that Lunney isn't getting more heat compared to the D & Oline coaches.
I get that IL historical offensive incompetency plays into this, but including that Connelly's metrics show the O was ranked only 6 teams higher than the D reinforces not refutes my point & it doesn't address that you couldn't crack the top 35 with a generational (for IL) QB.
Toledo has done good at idenifying good young talent and taking the risk to move on it while they can. I know we were worried Parker might be a guy, but I think he leaves to be a DC in FBS or a FCS HC before Toldedo would get him. I do think he will get that opportunity with how those in the know speak of him, but our defense's down year probably didn't create the launching pad for him this year.
We have decided who the scapegoat for the offense is in Bart. OL play matters and our lack of development/ regression of OL is the easiest explanation for Luke not taking this offense higher. I also think you can say Luke really optimized our offense and the passing attack could not get much better, but our running game really brought us back to earth.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
I would argue that you are fortuitously ignoring history and conference priors to your advantage. Is Bret getting heat because he had Illinois' highest pre-season ranking since 1990 and only went 8-4? No, because the fanbase has perspective of the program's past performance. That also applies to Lunney (and Henry). Again, going into a season with sky-high expectations for the program:
Lunney: best offensive season in the past 12 seasons (via SP+)
Henry: fourth best defensive season in the past 5 seasons (via SP+)
I'm choosing SP+ to my disadvantage, FEI would make these differences wider. I get that your argument is about a generational QB, which is a valid one. To counter, the offense just had their best performance since the last two program generational QBs (Scheelhaase + Kittner). That said, these are the comparisons that people will traditionally make on their opinions of coaches. Fans hold their coaches to a standard set by the program's history. Further baked into this system is the Big Ten has traditionally leaned into defense, therefore making it harder for the non-Ohio State's of the conference to have good (efficient) offenses. Facing the Wisconsin's, Iowa's, Minnesota's, Penn State's, and Michigan's defenses week-over-week makes it a lot harder to create an efficient offense compared to, say, any Big XII or ACC team.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
@jamarvelous31 I say all this but still believe it's fair to criticize Lunney. I may disagree with it but it's also tough to ignore the offense falling flat to finish the season, especially with Wisconsin and wanting this season to be undoubtedly the best offensive performance since '01. Just trying to provide perspective on how the fanbase's trend has been this offseason of being upset at Henry but very few voices concerned about Lunney.
I just don't think it'd be crazy to say that Lunney should shoulder some of that responsibility given he oversees the offense.
Part of why Henry is likely out the door is due to subpar DB play exacerbated by soft coverage and passive play calling. Wild that we're not pointing to Luke being pressured on 1 of every 3 dropbacks and sacked on 10% (watching live it felt like more) of them as an offensive schematic flaw.
Last edited:
some very funny stuff in here when you know what the defese chart looks like
see those offense spikes in 2013 and 2018? memorably horrid defense.
see where the offense bottoms out for the worst performance since 2006? that's the year we had the generational defense
18 wins in two years behind offense AND defense being not elite but good enough. neither unit absolutely horrendous (by sp+ metrics at least, efficiency metrics hate the offense and success rate metrics rank the defense as just about the worst in football)
I think there's a broad consensus that changing OL coaches fixes this, and I don't know how true that is but the fact that in year 6 we all agree that next year's OL starters aren't all currently on the roster is concerning and I don't think it was supposed to be like this.
What I think we can ABSOLUTELY all agree on is that something on the offense needs to change. If Lunney's scheme is not compatible with what Miller coaches, this needs to be resolved somehow.
Yeah, it was kind of fun (and sometimes cringeworthy) to look back on those teams b/c of the chart.
I'll add, in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Illinois had average P4 RB's and well below average P2 RB's.
in hindsight it's clear that mccray was an enormous difference maker whose reps were absolutely not replaced
Completely fair.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
Is it? He has not received many reps at Georgia. When he has played, he hasn't performed well behind a better offensive line.
I do believe there is incongruence between Miller and Lunney's approach. The difference is Lunney has raised the offensive profile at Illinois while Miller has not. It's an easy decision on who is underperforming and the less valuable piece. The question is, if you replace Miller then you need to reflect on why it didn't work and what approach is needed to maximize the performance with Lunney's scheme.
Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
McGray/Dogs....total man on the outside. Latest stat vs Tide, 3 carries for 3 yards? This is the poached player Kirby grabbed.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I don’t think McCray would’ve had a huge impact on our rushing numbers this year, but one thing to keep in mind for his yards per rush is that he’s usually put in for short yardage situations, where the goal is typically 1 yard or less and he usually picks it up.
MoCoMdIllini
- Montgomery County, Maryland
Running through that hole was right out of a movie.
Was there. Threw my arms in the air like I didn't care and yelled out ball game!
With thousands of Illini Nation doing the same around us!!
Sure, but he's averaging 4 touches a game the last 5 and and that's heavily distorted by the Ga Tech game where he had more touches than the other 4 games combined.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
Yes, I understand that. Which is why I mentioned he likely wouldn’t have had a big impact to our rushing attack. Just wanted to add additional context for why his yards per rush are so low.
I still can't remove it from my avatar.
- Status