Illini Basketball 2025-2026

[Fighter of the Nightman]

How we looked during the last 10 seasons as we approached the New Year...

2016-2017 - 10-4 (0-1) and unranked. Won Braggin' Rights bad had beat nobody of note and unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament.
2017-2018 - 10-5 (0-2) and unranked. Once again won Braggin' Rights but had no real good wins and some stinker losses (like New Mexico State at the UC...). Maybe feeling a tad less bad given it was Underwood's first year, but we were bad.
2018-2019 - 4-9 (0-2) and unranked. Needless to say, not great! And we lost Braggin' Rights, too. The lone bright spot was giving #3 Gonzaga a heart attack in Maui before losing a close one ... I guess that showed the early flashes of improvement!
2019-2020 - 9-4 (1-1) and unranked. Had reason for optimism after upsetting #5 Michigan and losing an absolute heartbreaker at #3 Maryland by just 1 point, but ... that Braggin' Rights loss zapped a lot of enthusiasm. We were still a pretty clear "wait-and-see" product.
2020-2021 - 7-3 (3-1) and ranked #18. We finally had what seemed like a good team, but the loss at Missouri might have given us some pause. We did have that great beatdown at #10 Duke in our pocket, but the Blue Devils were already starting to flounder and would soon drop out of the top 25.
2021-2022 - 9-3 (2-0) and unranked. I think fans generally were starting to feel pretty good again after the shockingly bad start to the season, but we still lacked a good win of any kind, with the possible exception of at Iowa.
2022-2023 - 9-4 (0-2) and unranked. The goodwill from the UCLA and Texas wins had already worn off after the PSU blowout loss at home and the humiliation at Braggin' Rights. I can't remember when Skyy officially left the team and everything seemed to be falling apart, but it was just around the corner.
2023-2024 - 10-2 (2-0) and ranked #9. While everything looked rosy on paper, we had of course just received the shocking news about the charges against TSJ ... "surreal" is just about the only way to describe how we all felt at this point.
2024-2025 - 9-3 (1-1) and ranked #22. I think folks were generally still pretty optimistic about this group given they were young, but the warning signs of inconsistency had certainly shown themselves with the loss at Northwestern.

2025-2026 - 10-3 (1-1) and ranked #20. While it might look similar to last year 2020 on paper, it cannot be overstated that we have played such a tough schedule already and have multiple Quad 1 wins already in our pocket, to go along with zero bad losses. On top of that, other than a buzzer beater loss vs. Nebraska, we have now put together a month of playing really good basketball and seemingly gaining momentum.

It's a long season, and some of this team's issues (which now admittedly seem more minor than they did after the UConn game!!) do have shades of what doomed last year's team to a Second Round exit. However, no team is perfect, and I can honestly say I feel as excited for January at this point in the year as I have for any Illini team of the last 10 years, when you take everything into account.

Let's keep stacking wins!!

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

How we looked during the last 10 seasons as we approached the New Year...

2016-2017 - 10-4 (0-1) and unranked. Won Braggin' Rights bad had beat nobody of note and unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament.
2017-2018 - 10-5 (0-2) and unranked. Once again won Braggin' Rights but had no real good wins and some stinker losses (like New Mexico State at the UC...). Maybe feeling a tad less bad given it was Underwood's first year, but we were bad.
2018-2019 - 4-9 (0-2) and unranked. Needless to say, not great! And we lost Braggin' Rights, too. The lone bright spot was giving #3 Gonzaga a heart attack in Maui before losing a close one ... I guess that showed the early flashes of improvement!
2019-2020 - 9-4 (1-1) and unranked. Had reason for optimism after upsetting #5 Michigan and losing an absolute heartbreaker at #3 Maryland by just 1 point, but ... that Braggin' Rights loss zapped a lot of enthusiasm. We were still a pretty clear "wait-and-see" product.
2020-2021 - 7-3 (3-1) and ranked #18. We finally had what seemed like a good team, but the loss at Missouri might have given us some pause. We did have that great beatdown at #10 Duke in our pocket, but the Blue Devils were already starting to flounder and would soon drop out of the top 25.
2021-2022 - 9-3 (2-0) and unranked. I think fans generally were starting to feel pretty good again after the shockingly bad start to the season, but we still lacked a good win of any kind, with the possible exception of at Iowa.
2022-2023 - 9-4 (0-2) and unranked. The goodwill from the UCLA and Texas wins had already worn off after the PSU blowout loss at home and the humiliation at Braggin' Rights. I can't remember when Skyy officially left the team and everything seemed to be falling apart, but it was just around the corner.
2023-2024 - 10-2 (2-0) and ranked #9. While everything looked rosy on paper, we had of course just received the shocking news about the charges against TSJ ... "surreal" is just about the only way to describe how we all felt at this point.
2024-2025 - 9-3 (1-1) and ranked #22. I think folks were generally still pretty optimistic about this group given they were young, but the warning signs of inconsistency had certainly shown themselves with the loss at Northwestern.

2025-2026 - 10-3 (1-1) and ranked #20. While it might look similar to last year 2020 on paper, it cannot be overstated that we have played such a tough schedule already and have multiple Quad 1 wins already in our pocket, to go along with zero bad losses. On top of that, other than a buzzer beater loss vs. Nebraska, we have now put together a month of playing really good basketball and seemingly gaining momentum.

It's a long season, and some of this team's issues (which now admittedly seem more minor than they did after the UConn game!!) do have shades of what doomed last year's team to a Second Round exit. However, no team is perfect, and I can honestly say I feel as excited for January at this point in the year as I have for any Illini team of the last 10 years, when you take everything into account.

Let's keep stacking wins!!

We don't turn the ball over like a year ago, especially in the backcourt.
Keaton - only 17 turnovers on the season.
Kylan - only 17 turnovers on the season.

 

[lstewart53x3]

2. Thus, the ultimate goal of this program - for well-founded reasons based on historical evidence of success across many decades, eras and coaching regimes - is for us to win a National Championship. We have had heart-breaking near misses, and it simply sucks we haven't made it to the mountain top. However, we have ALWAYS bounced back to the point where we are putting ourselves in a position to achieve that dream. You can argue what subjective metrics indicate that you are "putting yourself in a position to win a National Championship," but things like winning Big Ten championships, getting top 3 (and especially #1) seeds and making it to at least the Elite Eight are often EXCELLENT evidence of "doing the right things" to give yourself a chance. And from Henson to Kruger to Self to Weber to Underwood, each coach across FIVE decades in the modern era has been able to do those things here ... it's not hard to win at Illinois.

To me, the bolded doesn’t prove that it’s easy to win at Illinois. It proves the importance of having a good coach. Each coach you highlighted was excellent at their job. And the second we had a coach (Groce, who you selectively omitted) who wasn’t good at his job, we were bad.

I don’t believe that Brad has the 2nd most wins in the B1G over the past 5 years (or whatever the stat is) because “it’s easy to win at Illinois”. I believe it’s because he’s a great coach, which he’s proven year after year as he’s rebuilt staffs, teams, and schemes since he’s arrived.

And if the next coach is bad, like Groce, we’ll see results like Groce.

NIL obviously changes things from Groce’s tenure, but you can’t buy wins. Look at Kentucky. They have the most expensive roster in college basketball, yet are 9-4, unranked in the AP, and sit at #19 in KP (and I realize they’ve had some injuries, but still).

Creighton outbid us for Dix and they’re #44 in KP. BYU likely has the highest paid player in the country and they slot one spot below us.

Good coaches win games. We’ve got a good one now. And I’m confident it’ll stay that way (whether that’s with Brad or someone else) with Josh at the helm.

 

[SkyysNotFalling]

How we looked during the last 10 seasons as we approached the New Year...

2016-2017 - 10-4 (0-1) and unranked. Won Braggin' Rights bad had beat nobody of note and unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament.
2017-2018 - 10-5 (0-2) and unranked. Once again won Braggin' Rights but had no real good wins and some stinker losses (like New Mexico State at the UC...). Maybe feeling a tad less bad given it was Underwood's first year, but we were bad.
2018-2019 - 4-9 (0-2) and unranked. Needless to say, not great! And we lost Braggin' Rights, too. The lone bright spot was giving #3 Gonzaga a heart attack in Maui before losing a close one ... I guess that showed the early flashes of improvement!
2019-2020 - 9-4 (1-1) and unranked. Had reason for optimism after upsetting #5 Michigan and losing an absolute heartbreaker at #3 Maryland by just 1 point, but ... that Braggin' Rights loss zapped a lot of enthusiasm. We were still a pretty clear "wait-and-see" product.
2020-2021 - 7-3 (3-1) and ranked #18. We finally had what seemed like a good team, but the loss at Missouri might have given us some pause. We did have that great beatdown at #10 Duke in our pocket, but the Blue Devils were already starting to flounder and would soon drop out of the top 25.
2021-2022 - 9-3 (2-0) and unranked. I think fans generally were starting to feel pretty good again after the shockingly bad start to the season, but we still lacked a good win of any kind, with the possible exception of at Iowa.
2022-2023 - 9-4 (0-2) and unranked. The goodwill from the UCLA and Texas wins had already worn off after the PSU blowout loss at home and the humiliation at Braggin' Rights. I can't remember when Skyy officially left the team and everything seemed to be falling apart, but it was just around the corner.
2023-2024 - 10-2 (2-0) and ranked #9. While everything looked rosy on paper, we had of course just received the shocking news about the charges against TSJ ... "surreal" is just about the only way to describe how we all felt at this point.
2024-2025 - 9-3 (1-1) and ranked #22. I think folks were generally still pretty optimistic about this group given they were young, but the warning signs of inconsistency had certainly shown themselves with the loss at Northwestern.

2025-2026 - 10-3 (1-1) and ranked #20. While it might look similar to last year 2020 on paper, it cannot be overstated that we have played such a tough schedule already and have multiple Quad 1 wins already in our pocket, to go along with zero bad losses. On top of that, other than a buzzer beater loss vs. Nebraska, we have now put together a month of playing really good basketball and seemingly gaining momentum.

It's a long season, and some of this team's issues (which now admittedly seem more minor than they did after the UConn game!!) do have shades of what doomed last year's team to a Second Round exit. However, no team is perfect, and I can honestly say I feel as excited for January at this point in the year as I have for any Illini team of the last 10 years, when you take everything into account.

Let's keep stacking wins!!

This years team is way better than last years. Not being able to hold on to the Alabama and/or Nebraska games might bite us in the butt come seeding, probably the difference between a 2/3 seed and a 3/4 seed, but just pour basketball wise- this team can make an elite 8 or final 4. They’re good.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

To me, the bolded doesn’t prove that it’s easy to win at Illinois. It proves the importance of having a good coach. Each coach you highlighted was excellent at their job. And the second we had a coach (Groce, who you selectively omitted) who wasn’t good at his job, we were bad.

I don’t believe that Brad has the 2nd most wins in the B1G over the past 5 years (or whatever the stat is) because “it’s easy to win at Illinois”. I believe it’s because he’s a great coach, which he’s proven year after year as he’s rebuilt staffs, teams, and schemes since he’s arrived.

And if the next coach is bad, like Groce, we’ll see results like Groce.

NIL obviously changes things from Groce’s tenure, but you can’t buy wins. Look at Kentucky. They have the most expensive roster in college basketball, yet are 9-4, unranked in the AP, and sit at #19 in KP (and I realize they’ve had some injuries, but still).

Creighton outbid us for Dix and they’re #44 in KP. BYU likely has the highest paid player in the country and they slot one spot below us.

Good coaches win games. We’ve got a good one now. And I’m confident it’ll stay that way (whether that’s with Brad or someone else) with Josh at the helm.

So, you don't think it's "easy" to win anywhere? Or that there's no such thing as good programs, only good coaches?

I think Weber showed that you can still accomplish quite a lot at Illinois even if you're not a top tier coach. You just can't be totally in over your head as JG was.

I agree with you that good coaches win games. But if BU were head coach at Penn St., PSU would not have the most B1G wins over the last 5 years.

 

[lstewart53x3]

So, you don't think it's "easy" to win anywhere? Or that there's no such thing as good programs, only good coaches?

I think Weber showed that you can still accomplish quite a lot at Illinois even if you're not a top tier coach. You just can't be totally in over your head as JG was.

I agree with you that good coaches win games. But if BU were head coach at Penn St., PSU would not have the most B1G wins over the last 5 years.

Of course some programs are better than others and have built in advantages due to financial resources, recruiting grounds, etc.

But good programs with those advantages struggle when they have bad coaches all the time and vise versa.

Examples:

Illinois was bad under Weber when he had his own players, along with Groce.
Michigan was good under Beilien, bad under Howard, and now good under May.
Villanova was winning championships, now they’re not.
Virginia was winning championships, now they’re not.
Ohio St was good, now they’re not.
North Carolina was good, now they’re not.
Indiana was good, now they’re not.
St John’s was bad, now they’re good.
Alabama was bad, now they’re good.

There are plenty of programs who are one good coach away from having good teams and plenty of programs who are one bad coach away from having bad teams.

You mention that Brad wouldn’t be #2 in the B1G at PSU and you’re probably right. But if you give OSU Brad and us Deibler, OSU’s in the KP top 10 and we’re in the 30’s right now. Or you give Indiana Brad and us Archie Miller/Mike Woodson and they’d be #2 in the B1G over the past 5 years and we’d have a first year head coach.

Iowa finished last year at #62 in KP. They currently sit at #18. The program didn’t change, but the coach did.

 

[alaskaillini]

RE: Some discussions lately, I want to reiterate that I sincerely believe the vast majority of Illini fans here want the same thing and genuinely support our program loyally. You have a few trolls who feed on negativity and you might have some who are "head-in-the-sand" types, but I would argue the vast majority of us just process the following things we can all agree on differently.
...
This team DOES seem like it could have the potential to go deep in March ... and if you are in the Elite Eight or obviously even further, anything can happen ... and you can start to dream big about that ultimate goal. So if fans think there is any "unforced error" that is cutting this team's potential - whether that is an offensive scheme that doesn't match our personnel or an unreasonably subpar defense that could cost us game or some assistant who Brad is too loyal to or ANY of that ... it doesn't matter - they are going to get even more upset than in a normal year. Because this team CAN be special, and we all desperately want it to be ... some will just get understandably emotional and frustrated if it at all seems like we're wasting an opportunity. We waited 4 seasons after 2001 to "get another shot," we waited over 15 years after 2005 due to a decade in the wilderness and we waited 3 years after 2021. Who knows when we'll have a squad like this again? It's special ... and it's a tricky thing for fans to both appreciate that and soak in the moment but also not feel a sort of tenseness about this possibly being a golden opportunity.

Go Illini!

This is the third team that brad has had that could win it all, along with 2020-21 and 2023-24. There are probably 10-15 teams every year that have the talent to win it all. These are the true bites at the apple.
The issue I have is with the complaints about offensive scheme, about staff decisions, etc., that the fans on here are constantly making hot takes about. The staff is getting paid millions, spend months around these guys watching them play basketball every day, but some of the people on here think they know better.
The fact that this is the third team in 9 years that realistically has a chance to win a natty should be enough proof of BU's ability. Putting together a team that has a realistic chance is not easy at Illinois, and you need to do it about 10 times to have a better than 50% chance of winning a championship. How many teams have we had in the last 50 years that had the talent necessary to legitimately compete for a championship? Is it even 10? BU has done a remarkable job.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Of course some programs are better than others and have built in advantages due to financial resources, recruiting grounds, etc.

But good programs with those advantages struggle when they have bad coaches all the time and vise versa.

Examples:

Illinois was bad under Weber when he had his own players, along with Groce.
Michigan was good under Beilien, bad under Howard, and now good under May.
Villanova was winning championships, now they’re not.
Virginia was winning championships, now they’re not.
Ohio St was good, now they’re not.
North Carolina was good, now they’re not.
Indiana was good, now they’re not.
St John’s was bad, now they’re good.
Alabama was bad, now they’re good.

There are plenty of programs who are one good coach away from having good teams and plenty of programs who are one bad coach away from having bad teams.

You mention that Brad wouldn’t be #2 in the B1G at PSU and you’re probably right. But if you give OSU Brad and us Deibler, OSU’s in the KP top 10 and we’re in the 30’s right now. Or you give Indiana Brad and us Archie Miller/Mike Woodson and they’d be #2 in the B1G over the past 5 years and we’d have a first year head coach.

Iowa finished last year at #62 in KP. They currently sit at #18. The program didn’t change, but the coach did.

Right. I don't imagine anyone would argue with the idea that a good coach elevates a program and a bad one sinks it. The point is that success comes easier at some schools than others. And Illinois is one at which success comes easier than others.

OSU and IU are comparable to Illinois in my opinion. Actually more so OSU than IU. Once they get a competent -not even top tier, just good enough- coach they'll be back toward the top of the league regularly. History has shown us that.
Same with UNC, et al.

In fact, most of the schools you mentioned are historically pretty good programs. Only Virginia and Michigan are outside the top 35 in all time win percentage. Somehow, the coaches change but these schools find themselves toward the top more often than not.

By the way, if you exclude mid majors (i.e. Western Kentucky and Murray St.) Illinois is 10th on that all time win percentage list.

 

[Illwinsagain]

How we looked during the last 10 seasons as we approached the New Year...

2016-2017 - 10-4 (0-1) and unranked. Won Braggin' Rights bad had beat nobody of note and unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament.
2017-2018 - 10-5 (0-2) and unranked. Once again won Braggin' Rights but had no real good wins and some stinker losses (like New Mexico State at the UC...). Maybe feeling a tad less bad given it was Underwood's first year, but we were bad.
2018-2019 - 4-9 (0-2) and unranked. Needless to say, not great! And we lost Braggin' Rights, too. The lone bright spot was giving #3 Gonzaga a heart attack in Maui before losing a close one ... I guess that showed the early flashes of improvement!
2019-2020 - 9-4 (1-1) and unranked. Had reason for optimism after upsetting #5 Michigan and losing an absolute heartbreaker at #3 Maryland by just 1 point, but ... that Braggin' Rights loss zapped a lot of enthusiasm. We were still a pretty clear "wait-and-see" product.
2020-2021 - 7-3 (3-1) and ranked #18. We finally had what seemed like a good team, but the loss at Missouri might have given us some pause. We did have that great beatdown at #10 Duke in our pocket, but the Blue Devils were already starting to flounder and would soon drop out of the top 25.
2021-2022 - 9-3 (2-0) and unranked. I think fans generally were starting to feel pretty good again after the shockingly bad start to the season, but we still lacked a good win of any kind, with the possible exception of at Iowa.
2022-2023 - 9-4 (0-2) and unranked. The goodwill from the UCLA and Texas wins had already worn off after the PSU blowout loss at home and the humiliation at Braggin' Rights. I can't remember when Skyy officially left the team and everything seemed to be falling apart, but it was just around the corner.
2023-2024 - 10-2 (2-0) and ranked #9. While everything looked rosy on paper, we had of course just received the shocking news about the charges against TSJ ... "surreal" is just about the only way to describe how we all felt at this point.
2024-2025 - 9-3 (1-1) and ranked #22. I think folks were generally still pretty optimistic about this group given they were young, but the warning signs of inconsistency had certainly shown themselves with the loss at Northwestern.

2025-2026 - 10-3 (1-1) and ranked #20. While it might look similar to last year 2020 on paper, it cannot be overstated that we have played such a tough schedule already and have multiple Quad 1 wins already in our pocket, to go along with zero bad losses. On top of that, other than a buzzer beater loss vs. Nebraska, we have now put together a month of playing really good basketball and seemingly gaining momentum.

It's a long season, and some of this team's issues (which now admittedly seem more minor than they did after the UConn game!!) do have shades of what doomed last year's team to a Second Round exit. However, no team is perfect, and I can honestly say I feel as excited for January at this point in the year as I have for any Illini team of the last 10 years, when you take everything into account.

Let's keep stacking wins!!

I had forgotten how bad (mediocre) we were at times in the past decade. I like being good (or better) a lot more than being bad.

 

[NarrowJ]

The historical data points are mostly moot with the current NIL situation, I’m afraid.

Some may argue Illinois has had 3 of their last 6 coaches fail to a point of being fired/removed, and 2 of the 6 left before you could really judge any long-term performance. Brad is the 1 in those 6 left standing. Then others may argue Illinois is 12th all time in winning percentage and has made 2nd weekends at X rate over the last Y years.

Both are correct, but I just don’t think it matters. The parameters of all of this have shifted so recently that we don’t have a relevant sample with the NIL and unlimited transfer portal yet. Would a guy like Bruce Weber, who was a very good coach but poor recruiter, fare much better in this era where your administration gives you a payroll? There is far less need to be a gray area guy or slick salesman these days. Sure, relationships always help. But, are there slush fund or Deon Thomas scandals if players are legally paid? Are we doing well in the current landscape of things? Are we innovating with roster construction and/or scheme?

These are all far more interesting convos to me than how many 20 win seasons we had in the 80s, or whether we should pretend the 2010s decade didn’t happen.

 

[BryceHopkins]

On a lighter, I am imploring all Illini fans who have the time and the means to travel to Iowa City for our January 11 game vs. Iowa! The Hawkeyes are currently #25, and they have UMass Lowell and UCLA at home before a trip to Minnesota ... our game against them is shaping up to be an absolutely awesome, nationally televised rivalry game on FOX, possibly the first top 25 matchup in the rivalry in 4 years! Here's why anyone on the fence should consider pulling the trigger and attending:

1. While an aesthetically "meh" arena in many ways, I will say that Carver-Hawkeye Arena (CHA) is a surprisingly awesome place to watch a game. As someone who has been there more times than I can count, including for a ton of games vs. Illinois, there really is not a bad seat in the house. The flat roof and completely in-the-ground arena allows it to be a lot louder than it ever should given the usual fan support they can muster.

2. There are still a decent number of tickets available at very reasonable prices. While most of the prime seats are sold out, you can sit in a corner section for $35 per ticket ... not bad at all. I really wish this game were on a Saturday so more Illini fans could make the trip, but a Sunday is the next best thing! There is still a possibility it could be an early game (time is TBD but either 11:00 am or 3:30 pm), which could allow fans to rather easily drive back home after the game.

3. This rivalry needs to regain some steam, and I hope both fan bases treat this like a huge deal, given it is our only meeting. The decline since its height in 2021 and 2022 has been unfortunate, but I think Iowa got a great coach and the rivalry will be back in full swing soon. Never count your eggs before they're hatched, but Illinois and Iowa will be favored in every game between now and January 11 ... if the results are chalk, you will get a (13-2) Iowa team that has won 5 straight and is likely ranked in the top 20 hosting a (12-3) Illini team that has won 4 straight and is likely ranked in the top 15. This will be a very big game for both teams no matter what, but it has the potential to be an absolutely huge one.

4. The boys need our support, and Illini fans have an excellent and hilarious history of flooding CHA with orange ... and I promise you, it makes Iowa fans absolutely irate. I have attended Iowa/Illini games at CHA on and off from 2003 (first game as a fifth grade Illini fan living in hostile territory!) to 2024, and there have only been a couple years with a bad Illini fan showing. The local papers have actually routinely reported on the estimated number of Illini fans, and it has varied from a respectable 1,000 or so in years like 2008 and 2023, to very noticeable and loud estimates of closer to 2,000 or 3,000 in years like 2006, 2011 and 2024, to absolutely wild showings of over 6,000 orange-clad fans plus the Orange Krush in 2005 ... the last one is still one of my core sports memories, and it KILLS me that this game cannot be found on YouTube.

TL;DR

If you can make it, help paint Carver-Hawkeye Arena orange on Sunday, January 11. It's going to be a huge game, and it will be worth your trip ... it's always fun to invade that place!

Just bought 6 tickets to take the family... thanks for posting the link to the Iowa ticket office, Fighter! Secondary market tix going for over $100 each, but I was able to get some direct from the University for under $50 each. Now I just hope the Bears playoff game isn't at the same time!

 

[OrangeBlue98]

Do we have any idea yet of a start time for Iowa? I keep seeing TBD. If it’s an afternoon tip, I’ll go. If it’s an evening tip, it’s probably a no-go with a long day at work the following Monday.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Do we have any idea yet of a start time for Iowa? I keep seeing TBD. If it’s an afternoon tip, I’ll go. If it’s an evening tip, it’s probably a no-go with a long day at work the following Monday.

It’s TBD, but I believe the only options are 11:00 am or 3:30 pm … so you’re set on no evenings!

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

The historical data points are mostly moot with the current NIL situation, I’m afraid.

Some may argue Illinois has had 3 of their last 6 coaches fail to a point of being fired/removed, and 2 of the 6 left before you could really judge any long-term performance. Brad is the 1 in those 6 left standing. Then others may argue Illinois is 12th all time in winning percentage and has made 2nd weekends at X rate over the last Y years.

Both are correct, but I just don’t think it matters. The parameters of all of this have shifted so recently that we don’t have a relevant sample with the NIL and unlimited transfer portal yet. Would a guy like Bruce Weber, who was a very good coach but poor recruiter, fare much better in this era where your administration gives you a payroll? There is far less need to be a gray area guy or slick salesman these days. Sure, relationships always help. But, are there slush fund or Deon Thomas scandals if players are legally paid? Are we doing well in the current landscape of things? Are we innovating with roster construction and/or scheme?

These are all far more interesting convos to me than how many 20 win seasons we had in the 80s, or whether we should pretend the 2010s decade didn’t happen.

Again, highlighting a decade like the 2010s as an outlier is not pretending it doesn’t exist or cherry-picking or whatever. The argument is that a semi-competent coach has lifted us to being a very good program historically moreso than would consistently happen at a program like Minnesota or even Iowa … I and many others think the evidence for that claim is obvious, but it’s fine if you don’t.

Your other argument is valid, and it’s fine to throw history out the window to SOME extent. However, the admittedly limited information available also seems to indicate that Illinois is in a more advantageous position than all but about 10 or 15 at most programs in the country in this new NIL era, too.

I think it would be an extraordinarily difficult claim to make that it’s more difficult to be successful at Illinois than your average program. That’s a different discussion than being appreciative of Brad’s success! Our success since 2020 isn’t strictly because we’re this elite spot where even a monkey could win Big Ten titles, and it’s not strictly a situation where we’re just so lucky to have Brad and would immediately slide into the cellar for a decade without him because we can’t attract another great coach.

We have a good situation for all involved.

 

[NarrowJ]

Again, highlighting a decade like the 2010s as an outlier is not pretending it doesn’t exist or cherry-picking or whatever. The argument is that a semi-competent coach has lifted us to being a very good program historically moreso than would consistently happen at a program like Minnesota or even Iowa … I and many others think the evidence for that claim is obvious, but it’s fine if you don’t.

Your other argument is valid, and it’s fine to throw history out the window to SOME extent. However, the admittedly limited information available also seems to indicate that Illinois is in a more advantageous position than all but about 10 or 15 at most programs in the country in this new NIL era, too.

I think it would be an extraordinarily difficult claim to make that it’s more difficult to be successful at Illinois than your average program. That’s a different discussion than being appreciative of Brad’s success! Our success since 2020 isn’t strictly because we’re this elite spot where even a monkey could win Big Ten titles, and it’s not strictly a situation where we’re just so lucky to have Brad and would immediately slide into the cellar for a decade without him because we can’t attract another great coach.

We have a good situation for all involved.

I was just saying, I think with NIL it’s easier to win here than ever before. That’s the argument you should be making, as opposed to the historical data like winning percentage or what have you. It really does fall flat on its face when the most recent and relevant period of Illini basketball to compare to is the 2010 decade that y’all have selectively forgotten (and yes it’s fair to mention that you leave it out).

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I was just saying, I think with NIL it’s easier to win here than ever before. That’s the argument you should be making, as opposed to the historical data like winning percentage or what have you. It really does fall flat on its face when the most recent and relevant period of Illini basketball to compare to is the 2010 decade that y’all have selectively forgotten (and yes it’s fair to mention that you leave it out).

That's the argument I'll start making then. But I only think it's "fair" to point it out if you are trying to make a point about me leaving that decade out ... and the only point I can fathom is that you think the 2010s are indicative of how easy it was to win at Illinois pre-NIL. I would argue it is not, and that stretch said more about Bruce Weber and John Groce than Illinois. Pretty much, I think if you put our lineup of coaches from Henson to Underwood at Iowa, the results would be worse over that timespan ... because I think Illinois has more built-in advantages, from a better recruiting footprint, a bigger and more loyal fan base, better facilities, more tradition (back when it indeed was more important), etc.

Like you said, though, it's bordering on irrelevant now. This is pretty much conjecture, but I would guess that the main things that will draw top recruits somewhere right now are (1) NIL available, (2) ability to compete for a National Championship and (3) likelihood of making the NBA. I do think things like fan support, facilities, the conference you'd play in and even history/tradition DO still matter ... but they're way behind those three. Underwood has done a fantastic job at making us probably among the top 10-15 for NIL, probably top 15 in ability to cut down the nets and arguably top 10 lately in NBA potential! That's a great spot to be in.

 

[NarrowJ]

That's the argument I'll start making then. But I only think it's "fair" to point it out if you are trying to make a point about me leaving that decade out ... and the only point I can fathom is that you think the 2010s are indicative of how easy it was to win at Illinois pre-NIL. I would argue it is not, and that stretch said more about Bruce Weber and John Groce than Illinois. Pretty much, I think if you put our lineup of coaches from Henson to Underwood at Iowa, the results would be worse over that timespan ... because I think Illinois has more built-in advantages, from a better recruiting footprint, a bigger and more loyal fan base, better facilities, more tradition (back when it indeed was more important), etc.

Like you said, though, it's bordering on irrelevant now. This is pretty much conjecture, but I would guess that the main things that will draw top recruits somewhere right now are (1) NIL available, (2) ability to compete for a National Championship and (3) likelihood of making the NBA. I do think things like fan support, facilities, the conference you'd play in and even history/tradition DO still matter ... but they're way behind those three. Underwood has done a fantastic job at making us probably among the top 10-15 for NIL, probably top 15 in ability to cut down the nets and arguably top 10 lately in NBA potential! That's a great spot to be in.

It is just very hard for me to look at our historical W-L record over the years and call an entire decade "an outlier"

To me, the outlier is highlighted below:

And this is not me saying I think we're beneath those type of results year in and year out. I want to achieve that level of success as well, and I think in this NIL era we certainly can. I'm by no means tied to Brad as far as my fandom is concerned. Heck, there is a universe where Josh is gone before Brad. My hope is that we sustain the success we've had during the regular season while adding more deep tournament runs (which I believe will come). That's the thing I think we all agree on that gets lost in these discussions about expectations vs results: that we all want the same thing, pretty much.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

It is just very hard for me to look at our historical W-L record over the years and call an entire decade "an outlier"

To me, the outlier is highlighted below:

View attachment 45965
View attachment 45967

And this is not me saying I think we're beneath those type of results year in and year out. I want to achieve that level of success as well, and I think in this NIL era we certainly can. I'm by no means tied to Brad as far as my fandom is concerned. Heck, there is a universe where Josh is gone before Brad. My hope is that we sustain the success we've had during the regular season while adding more deep tournament runs (which I believe will come). That's the thing I think we all agree on that gets lost in these discussions about expectations vs results: that we all want the same thing, pretty much.

Lol why would you go all the way down to the 50s but crop out the part where we went to multiple final fours?

Why are the 2000s an outlier in your mind but not the 80s and 2020s?

If I'm just focused on the modern era (1980s onward) my eye goes directly to that big gap in the NCAA Tournament column from 2014 to 2020. That stretch is atypical of all other stretches of the last 45 years.

And I wouldn't be so fast to throw history out the window. There might not be proof that historical records have any bearings on modern programs but there also isn't much evidence to the contrary.

Let's make a wager. I'll take the top 20 winningest programs of all time and you can have the bottom 40. If one of your teams wins a championship before one of mine, I'll let you stay in one of my beach houses in peak season. Just pick the date.

 

[NarrowJ]

Lol why would you go all the way down to the 50s but crop out the part where we went to multiple final fours?

Why are the 2000s an outlier in your mind but not the 80s and 2020s?

If I'm just focused on the modern era (1980s onward) my eye goes directly to that big gap in the NCAA Tournament column from 2014 to 2020. That stretch is atypical of all other stretches of the last 45 years.

And I wouldn't be so fast to throw history out the window. There might not be proof that historical records have any bearings on modern programs but there also isn't much evidence to the contrary.

Where did I crop anything out? Did I make a mistake with the screenshots that I'm not seeing?

First screenshot ends at 89-90 and second screenshot begins at 88-89

Unless you're super concerned about data from 75 years ago to make a point that is now completely meaningless in this NIL & unlimited transfer era

Your 3rd sentence even states "If I'm just focused on the modern era (1980s onward)"... so your eye goes directly to a gap in NCAA tournament, but not to another 6 year stretch that is also an outlier. I'm trying to have a balanced discussion and others are selectively removing the most recent and relevant data points that we have.

Let's make a wager. I'll take the top 20 winningest programs of all time and you can have the bottom 40. If one of your teams wins a championship before one of mine, I'll let you stay in one of my beach houses in peak season. Just pick the date.

LOL what in the world? When have I ever made an argument that it is better to be a bottom 40 program than a top 20 program? That's the most ginormous strawman I've ever seen on this forum. I just got done saying it is now easier to win at Illinois than ever before (just my opinion). I don't even need to have an argument about this, because it doesn't matter. My fandom is not tied to a coach or admin regime. But, its just fun to discuss.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Unless you're super concerned about data from 75 years ago to make a point that is now completely meaningless in this NIL & unlimited transfer era

You're the one who showed us data dating back to the 50s not me.

Unless you're super concerned about data from 75 years ago to make a point that is now completely meaningless in this NIL & unlimited transfer era


LOL what in the world? When have I ever made an argument that it is better to be a bottom 40 program than a top 20 program? That's the most ginormous strawman I've ever seen on this forum. I just got done saying it is now easier to win at Illinois than ever before (just my opinion). I don't even need to have an argument about this, because it doesn't matter. My fandom is not tied to a coach or admin regime. But, its just fun to discuss.

You literally in this very same post said it's "completely meaningless" what teams have done in the past now that we're in the NIL era. If the past is so meaningless then the bet I proposed would be a no brainer for you.

 

[NarrowJ]

You're the one who showed us data dating back to the 50s not me.


You literally in this very same post said it's "completely meaningless" what teams have done in the past now that we're in the NIL era. If the past is so meaningless then the bet I proposed would be a no brainer for you.

I included what I included, you have a problem with it, that’s fine. We’ve now discussed the issues you have with it, which do not even pertain to the point I made (that the past is not very meaningful; I simply included the screenshots to show that other “outliers” exist in the data other folks have referencd)

So I think the past is meaningless, to a certain degree. Are you saying NIL and unlimited transfers don’t have any effect on the current state of things?

I would find it mildly insulting though (if I cared) that you imply this means that I would think a bottom 40 program has more chance of winning than a top 20 program. You dont need to be so extreme, obviously I don’t believe that. I’m trying to have a fair and balanced discussion and you’re responding with ridicule and vitriol. Come on, man.

 

[21ChampaignSt]

I would find it mildly insulting though (if I cared) that you imply this means that I would think a bottom 40 program has more chance of winning than a top 20 program. You dont need to be so extreme, obviously I don’t believe that. I’m trying to have a fair and balanced discussion and you’re responding with ridicule and vitriol. Come on, man.

Lol what?

Anyway, sounds like I've made my point. Onward and upward.

 

[NarrowJ]

Lol what?

Anyway, sounds like I've made my point. Onward and upward.

Yup, this is how you handle this every single time. You ridicule, imply stupidity and then self-proclaim yourself as the “winner of the interaction” and then disappear.

 

[logjam]

Lol what?

Anyway, sounds like I've made my point. Onward and upward.

Yup, this is how you handle this every single time. You ridicule, imply stupidity and then self-proclaim yourself as the “winner of the interaction” and then disappear.

 

[NarrowJ]

Is this helpful in any way either?

I said I didn’t think historical data was meaningful. Others said they did. I provided a screenshot of the historical data they referenced in an attempt to add value to the conversation, even though I don’t agree that it has a lot of relevance.

Someone then literally attacked me and insulted my intelligence by implying I think that a bottom 40 program is better than a top 20 program. It was not helpful nor constructive in any way whatsoever to the discussion, and neither is you showing up here calling people babies.

If you actually have something to add to the discussion, without insulting people, I’d love to hear/read it.