Hoping for a great bounce back for Mirk. We need him if we want to make a run in March.
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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I've seen this "we have to shoot lights out to even have a chance against Michigan" about 1000x in the last 2 weeks
Wake Forest shot 34% overall and missed 24 threes
TCU shot 37% overall and missed 17 threes
Penn St shot 35% overall and missed 22 threes
Nebraska shot 46% overall and missed 21 threes
Duke shot 45% overall and only made 6/19 threes
I think Wisconsin is the only team that shot well against them in these games
Common theme in Michigan's losses and close games isn't the other team being 'hot from outside', its Michigan playing poorly (which they do pretty often, they're statistically one of the most volatile teams in CBB)
We lost another game to a good team by a close margin and now we can't 'hang' with Michigan again
Torvik also has Illinois as 1.1 point favorite and 54% chance to win
“Live by the 3 and die by the 3” is just the placeholder fans say whenever you lose and shoot poorly from 3.
We shot incredibly well from 3 against Wisconsin and lost, while we also had the Indiana game you just highlighted.
Most of our missed 3s yesterday, we got points anyway because we rebound the hell out of the ball, which is the very definition of doing other things well than living and dying by chucking.
I’m far concerned with keeping Cadeau out of the lane Friday than I am about this team shooting 3’s
Against the 31st rated 3 point defensive team. We are 76th. I expect Michigan to burn up the nets Friday.
Meanwhile, Michigan is #7. So, yeah, this will be a tough, tough game.
I admit to being an optimist but it’s tough for me to see these 3 overtime losses as anything but stars aligning for our opponents. Injured players, controversial calls, 18% shooters hitting clutch 3s, etc etc etc.
This game we had 6 rotation players experience some sort of injury: Kylan face, Mirkovic neck, Wagler shoulder, Tomi leg, Andrej tweaked ankle, Ben stepped on a guys foot and hobbled around for a few minutes
Edit just to mention we were 8-2 in games decided by 10 pts or less prior to the 3 overtime losses (so still 8-5 after all of that jazz)
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I should have expanded on this thought...The problem with Illinois is our defense is Average at best and one of strong points is offensive rebounding..Unfortantely, Michigan plays outstanding defense and hits the defensive boards very well. I can almost guarantee that we will have limited second chance points on the offensive end and we are unlikely to stop them from a defensive standpoint.. Our only chance is to make a high percentage of 3s; higher than average..As of today, I don't see this happening with the way Michigan plays D and unfortunately see Michigan with an easy win.
I get your very valid point. I would just like to see the offense go inside more when they are indeed struggling with their 3-pointers.
Both twins have great potential to baby-hook their way to easy baskets. Why not try Wagler or Mirk backing in and incorporating a little "Booty Ball."
Just try it--all I am asking. Plus, if they can score inside, that will create even more wide open 3-point shots. It's a "win/win" for me.
Probably the kiss of death right there lol.
They got dominated on the boards yesterday.
As has been the case all year with them, if Mara is off the floor, either because he can’t guard a stretch big or foul trouble, the rebounding craters.
Not shocked we dropped the UCLA game. 2nd game of the west coast swing, they had only lost once at home and were fighting for their tourney lives. The way in which we lost it was unfortunate and painful.
Think we are a little beat up and have tired legs especially Keaton. Think carrying us for a month plus is starting to show. We’ve been really good coming off extended breaks where we get a chance to work on ourselves. Let’s get some rest and refocus.
Still think we match up as well with Michigan as anybody. Again go watch the second half of their Wisconsin game. What will decide the game in my opinion is rebounding. If we can get 35% or more of our misses back we are in good shape. Less than that we probably get killed in transition points.
Agree Cadeau may be the biggest concern matchup wise for us, although I will say by my eye he is the least quick of he and Boyd, Fears, and Dent, so hopefully can keep him in front. But he’s probably the best shooter too so can’t go under screens.
Michigan is great but definitely beatable. They just lost last night! We come out focused and play our game we’ve got a chance.
EDIT: I see Duke outrebounded them by 13. If they can do it we can do it.
Think we are a little beat up and have tired legs especially Keaton. Think carrying us for a month plus is starting to show. We’ve been really good coming off extended breaks where we get a chance to work on ourselves. Let’s get some rest and refocus.
Still think we match up as well with Michigan as anybody. Again go watch the second half of their Wisconsin game. What will decide the game in my opinion is rebounding. If we can get 35% or more of our misses back we are in good shape. Less than that we probably get killed in transition points.
Agree Cadeau may be the biggest concern matchup wise for us, although I will say by my eye he is the least quick of he and Boyd, Fears, and Dent, so hopefully can keep him in front. But he’s probably the best shooter too so can’t go under screens.
Michigan is great but definitely beatable. They just lost last night! We come out focused and play our game we’ve got a chance.
EDIT: I see Duke outrebounded them by 13. If they can do it we can do it.
It's crazy how deflating last night's game was for my excitement about the Michigan game. Michigan is also no longer ranked number one, and the Big Ten title chase will be over when they beat Minnesota on Tuesday.
I think the biggest thing that has everyone concerned is that from the end of December on, it appeared that when this team was at full strength, we would simply be too good to be taken down by inferior teams, regardless of the matchup.
I still think we have Final Four talent and would even say we should be considered good enough to win the whole thing when it comes to talent and the size and shooting you need.
But a loss like this to a mid-tier team like UCLA with essentially the full roster available shows that fears of another earlier than expected March exit are back on the table. Matchups will be very important as UCLA is not a great one with their three-point shooting, and Dent being quick and able to drive and finish well.
We know what this team is capable of, but the confidence that they will get as far as we hope is badly shaken, and no fan will feel comfortable if it comes down to the final minute, let alone OT.
I think the biggest thing that has everyone concerned is that from the end of December on, it appeared that when this team was at full strength, we would simply be too good to be taken down by inferior teams, regardless of the matchup.
I still think we have Final Four talent and would even say we should be considered good enough to win the whole thing when it comes to talent and the size and shooting you need.
But a loss like this to a mid-tier team like UCLA with essentially the full roster available shows that fears of another earlier than expected March exit are back on the table. Matchups will be very important as UCLA is not a great one with their three-point shooting, and Dent being quick and able to drive and finish well.
We know what this team is capable of, but the confidence that they will get as far as we hope is badly shaken, and no fan will feel comfortable if it comes down to the final minute, let alone OT.
Michigan's guards are not that great or quick. Above average but not like Arizona's or Duke's guards. Yesterday against Duke Michigan guards were 3 for 19. Illinois has trouble with real quick guards so I think Illinois matches up well with Michigan but Morez and Landeborg could be a problem. I think the Ivisics neutralize Mara.
I am under no illusions this will be an easy game haha. Fully expect a war.
And I’d be very, very disappointed if this is an easy Michigan victory like it was in Mackey. But candidly, I have no reason to think it’ll be that.
We are absolutely as good as Mich a third of the time. Problem is, they are that good 2/3 of the time. Still excited for Friday!
I think we have a good shot to make the E8 this year. My main fear is that in order to make the S16 and beyond, you need to make free throws and close teams out at the end of games. I'm not comfortable with us winning single possession tournament games at this point. But, our offense is good enough where this may not matter.
I hope we win this game close. This team is gaining a reputation of not being able to wins those and I tend to agree.
Hopefully we can self scout a bit this week and figure out how to play tighter defense down the stretch.
Hopefully we can self scout a bit this week and figure out how to play tighter defense down the stretch.
What about the 8-2 record in games decided by under 10 points that we had prior to these OT losses. Do those not count as being able to win close games?
We can beat anyone. That’s not a bad place to be going into the post season. I say forget about the pressure of winning the B10. That ship has sailed. Focus on getting better and having a great post season. The UCLA game won’t mean jack if we make a deep run in the tournament (Final 4). Or, dare I say, even better
Like others said, gotta think that elbow to the back of the head had a lot to Mirk's difficulties last night.
They beat us up all game (with few calls despite the 2 foul outs) and we still almost beat them is the way I prefer to look at it.
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Just because we had a full roster, does not mean we have a healthy roster. Still no excuses for dropping the game last night after building such a large lead. I get those that fear an early exit from tourney, but I doubt losing these close ot games mean anything to this team. Getting and staying healthy is far more important, and it is fair to question if we will get a fully healthy squad come tourney time.
Regarding the last bolded point...I have never met a fan of a team who is comfortable in any close game in last minute or ot, regardless of how good the team is. Despite these ot losses, there have been a number of big moment shots made by our players. If we didn't have the last second defensive collapse, we would all be talking about Wagler's huge offensive rebound and putback.
Also on the health front, we had so many guys get dinged up and/or have injury scares last night. Keaton with his shoulder. Mirk had a bad game but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was concussed after that elbow to the head, Tomi slipping on a wet spot, Kylan needed stitches, both Ben and Andrej stepped on feet and were a little gimpy at times. Understandable how we maybe lost our edge and focus a little bit.
But we ran the offense instead of jacking 3s.
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