OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
I think the only thing I can truly predict about this basketball season is that we can’t really predict anything.
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
- Status
We literally scored 1.312 points per possession. Offense was not the problem.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
It will take way more than just shooting well to beat Michigan (defense HAS to get it back together, for example), but here is the silver lining I am going to try to pitch.
We are 14-1 this year when we make 35.0% or more of our 3-point attempts, with the lone loss being in OT to Wisconsin down two starters. We shot 31.0% last night at UCLA. Going back to Braggin' Rights, we pretty much haven't gone two games in a row where we shoot less than 35.0%, with the only exception being Washington at home (33.3%) followed by at Nebraska (30.0%).
45.5% vs. Missouri
41.2% vs. Southern
22.2% at Penn State
35.5% vs. Rutgers
35.7% at Iowa
36.7% at Northwestern
37.1% vs. Minnesota
37.5% vs. Maryland
47.4% at Purdue
33.3% vs. Washington
30.0% at Nebraska
44.7% vs. Northwestern
27.8% at Michigan State
45.5% vs. Wisconsin
22.6% vs. Indiana
44.8% at USC
31.0% at UCLA
Similarly, our poor shooting on the road in a given game is almost always followed by a bounce-back shooting game when we return home:
22.2% at Penn State --> 35.5% vs. Rutgers
30.0% at Nebraska --> 44.7% vs. Northwestern
27.8% at Michigan State --> 45.5% vs. Indiana
31.0% at UCLA --> ????
Obviously, Rutgers, Northwestern and Indiana aren't exactly Michigan. However, others have speculated (at least before last night!) that we actually match up decently well vs. the Wolverines compared to most teams, so hopefully we can regain our hot shooting for this one. Michigan has clearly been mostly fantastic on defense, but they have allowed teams to shoot well from three in the Big Ten games where they have been the most vulnerable, with Nebraska shooting 34.4% in their close (and controversial...) loss in Ann Arbor and Wisconsin shooting 45.5% when they pulled off the upset. I'm usually the last person to pin hitting 3-pointers as the way to win a game, as it's just so risky and we need to be strong defensively in case they're just not going in ... but if our hyped offense is to beat their hyped defense, I would be shocked if that weren't because we are once again making 35%+ of our 3-point attempts.
We are 14-1 this year when we make 35.0% or more of our 3-point attempts, with the lone loss being in OT to Wisconsin down two starters. We shot 31.0% last night at UCLA. Going back to Braggin' Rights, we pretty much haven't gone two games in a row where we shoot less than 35.0%, with the only exception being Washington at home (33.3%) followed by at Nebraska (30.0%).
45.5% vs. Missouri
41.2% vs. Southern
22.2% at Penn State
35.5% vs. Rutgers
35.7% at Iowa
36.7% at Northwestern
37.1% vs. Minnesota
37.5% vs. Maryland
47.4% at Purdue
33.3% vs. Washington
30.0% at Nebraska
44.7% vs. Northwestern
27.8% at Michigan State
45.5% vs. Wisconsin
22.6% vs. Indiana
44.8% at USC
31.0% at UCLA
Similarly, our poor shooting on the road in a given game is almost always followed by a bounce-back shooting game when we return home:
22.2% at Penn State --> 35.5% vs. Rutgers
30.0% at Nebraska --> 44.7% vs. Northwestern
27.8% at Michigan State --> 45.5% vs. Indiana
31.0% at UCLA --> ????
Obviously, Rutgers, Northwestern and Indiana aren't exactly Michigan. However, others have speculated (at least before last night!) that we actually match up decently well vs. the Wolverines compared to most teams, so hopefully we can regain our hot shooting for this one. Michigan has clearly been mostly fantastic on defense, but they have allowed teams to shoot well from three in the Big Ten games where they have been the most vulnerable, with Nebraska shooting 34.4% in their close (and controversial...) loss in Ann Arbor and Wisconsin shooting 45.5% when they pulled off the upset. I'm usually the last person to pin hitting 3-pointers as the way to win a game, as it's just so risky and we need to be strong defensively in case they're just not going in ... but if our hyped offense is to beat their hyped defense, I would be shocked if that weren't because we are once again making 35%+ of our 3-point attempts.
To add to this -- IL had 20 Offensive Rebouds. UCLA had 19 Defensive Rebounds.
So when we did miss the shot, more times than not llinois got the offensive rebound than UCLA got the defensive rebound. And we capitized off it too, hence the 1.312 points per possession.
Really since that one UCONN game.... it's a brainrot argument at this point to start blaming our offense. Don't even need to get into those Kenpom numbers.
Sounds like Brad’s new motto needs to be “How do you win a basketball game when the ball DOES go in the basket?”…..3/25 from 3pt line in second half and overtime is bad basketball no matter what the numbers say. Officials calling ticky tack fouls all night and we just continued to settle for threes.
We finished the game making something like 3 of our last 23 threes. It's tough to win on the road shooting at that clip. The remarkable thing about this team, is that even playing at their worst, they still have great chances to win regardless of location.
This is true but it is so terribly disappointing to not be able to get a stop when we need it. It's become a pattern in nearly all of our losses and I just don't get it. Not to be too Prumanesque, but I really, really, don't.We can beat anyone. That’s not a bad place to be going into the post season. I say forget about the pressure of winning the B10. That ship has sailed. Focus on getting better and having a great post season. The UCLA game won’t mean jack if we make a deep run in the tournament (Final 4). Or, dare I say, even better
Should have been 3 at the inbounds...too worried about fouling.
Offense was great, no doubt. My only note if I may...
I wasn't thrilled with how many jumpers we were taking late game and OT when UCLA was in foul trouble/refs started blowing the whistle at everything.
Not to mention we will finally have our “bye” with almost a week between games. We’ve had 2 of our most impressive wins and shooting performances after similar breaks , namely a ranked win vs Tennessee (39% from 3) and a beat down of bubble team Mizzou (45% from 3).
We’ve played 17 games already where most teams have played 16. Again I think the injuries coupled with the slightly condensed schedule has given us some tired legs the last couple of weeks. Hopefully a little rest and some practice and we can tighten up the defense and make a few more shots.
Last edited:
Michigan is of course better than UCLA, but we actually match up better with Michigan. We have trouble matching up with bigs that can shoot, like Rienk Mast or Tyler Bilodeau (or Booker and Dailey, who had career nights from three!). No surprise that our two worst defensive performances were against Nebraska and UCLA this year.
Michigan plays two bigs that are not really three point shooters (Morez makes one every blue moon). They overwhelm people with their size and depth. But we have size and depth to match them. This game is a toss up, team that shoots it better wins.
Michigan plays two bigs that are not really three point shooters (Morez makes one every blue moon). They overwhelm people with their size and depth. But we have size and depth to match them. This game is a toss up, team that shoots it better wins.
Not really a convincing rebuttal as they gave us a 68.6% chance of winning last night.
We will not be favored in this one. I will not go so far as to say we cannot win, but it will take our best effort of the season by far.
Well, the two comments I responded to talked about it being “guaranteed loss” and “we’ll be lucky to keep it within 20 points”
respectively.
I feel very confident in this game because as you said we match up better with them. Also we are at home with almost a full week of rest where they are playing on Tuesday after playing a very physical game last night against Duke. That will be 3 games in a week. They also may not have much to play for not that they won't be motivated to win but if they win Tuesday they clinch at least a tie for the conference title. We are still going to have to play well for a full 40 minutes but I always feel good about this team after a loss. They know how to handle themselves in those situations.
I think it's a fairly convincing rebuttal to a fellow fan claiming the team shouldn't even bother showing up
Fact: we already are favored by multiple analytics sources
It isn’t when you make up for it by getting to the foul line 31 times AND offensive rebound over 50% of your misses. That’s what makes this offense historic — it doesn’t need a good shooting need to be elite. Again, we scored 1.31 points per possession (which is ELITE).
We lost this game on the defensive end and not being able to defend 4.9 seconds with the full length of the court.
It's still tough to win on the road shooting like that from 3. That doesn't mean it is impossible to win, just tough.
Yep. I don't understand why people think this Michigan team is invincible and impossible to beat. They are a very good team but they do have flaws and they haven't always looked sharp in some games especially against lesser opponents. I don't know if it will take our best effort to win this game. It might take Michigan's best effort to win this game.
LOL. Torvik projects Illinois as a 1.1pt favorite, projects we will win 80-79, and gives us a 54% chance to win:
Big Jack
- Decatur
Great idea need a larger clock the. Chant 1, 2, 3....when he is ready to shoot it yell wait...
I mean, the original conversation being had was regarding these comments claiming this game is a "guaranteed loss" —
From that standpoint, I think it's a fairly "convincing rebuttal" that two reputable analytics not only give us a chance, but project Illinois to win the game outright:
Last edited:
Big Jack
- Decatur
Illinois will win this game. All a part of the rollercoaster us Illini fans go through year after year. just don't want to let myself feel too high after the game because another let down is sure to follow.
- Status