And Kenpom projects a one point loss, so pick your computer model I guess. All I'm saying is that it will be an extremely hard fought win if we are fortunate enough to get one. As I said in my post it will take our best effort of the year. A prediction - ESPN, Torvik, Kenpom - guarantees zero when the ball goes up and plays and in game decisions have to be made.
Goes to show that sometimes stats lie through their teeth. Michigan are the kind of team that has given us fits this season. Athletic at nearly every position, particularly in the front court. Given how slow of foot Tomi and Mirko looked against UCLA's front court, can anyone honestly trust what Torvik is spitting out in this situation? To clarify, I'm not saying we can't win. I'm saying that I'm with FloridaMan on this one...based upon what we've seen on the court this season, it's going to be an uphill battle.
Alright, so there's 3 things I'd like to get to here. FIRSTLY, just so everyone's on the same page, here's the conversation being had:
We'll be lucky to keep it within 20. That's all I have to say.
Guaranteed loss- book it.
Not really a convincing rebuttal as they gave us a 68.6% chance of winning last night.
We will not be favored in this one. I will not go so far as to say we cannot win, but it will take our best effort of the season by far.
LOL. Torvik projects Illinois as a 1.1pt favorite, projects we will win 80-79, and gives us a 54% chance to win:
View attachment 47808
I mean, the original conversation being had was regarding these comments claiming this game is a "guaranteed loss" —
From that standpoint, I think it's a fairly "convincing rebuttal" that two reputable analytics not only give us a chance, but project Illinois to win the game outright:
View attachment 47809
View attachment 47810
And Kenpom projects a one point loss, so pick your computer model I guess. All I'm saying is that it will be an extremely hard fought win if we are fortunate enough to get one. As I said in my post it will take our best effort of the year. A prediction - ESPN, Torvik, Kenpom - guarantees zero when the ball goes up and plays and in game decisions have to be made.
Goes to show that sometimes stats lie through their teeth. Michigan are the kind of team that has given us fits this season. Athletic at nearly every position, particularly in the front court. Given how slow of foot Tomi and Mirko looked against UCLA's front court, can anyone honestly trust what Torvik is spitting out in this situation? To clarify, I'm not saying we can't win. I'm saying that I'm with FloridaMan on this one...based upon what we've seen on the court this season, it's going to be an uphill battle.
So, the initial point of discussion had effectively nothing to do with who would win, being an uphill battle, who'd be favored, needing our best effort of the year.... it was attempting to disprove the claim that we would lose by 20 and don't have a prayer's chance. For that particular ridiculous opinion, it is a very good rebuttal to point out those analytics, which have us WINNING the game (let alone the idea of getting blown out). I do not think they're "lying through their teeth" by NOT predicting we'll lose by 20.
SECONDLY, about my response to Floridaman's comment saying "we will not be favored in this one." First of all, nobody here determines that but Vegas. HOWEVER, analytics sites such as kenpom, torvik, espn matchup predictor... are
generally (not a universal rule) a good indicator of who'll be favored. 2/3 of those metrics have Illinois winning the game. ALL I AM SAYING is that it isn't a forgone conclusion in terms of who the line will favor when it comes out. If you think it'll be Michigan, go for it, and you'll probably be right, and I could care less given I'm not even a sports gambler.... but it'll be a close call and might even flip flop.
THIRDLY, and this will be my response to Pasadena's comment:
Goes to show that sometimes stats lie through their teeth. Michigan are the kind of team that has given us fits this season. Athletic at nearly every position, particularly in the front court. Given how slow of foot Tomi and Mirko looked against UCLA's front court, can anyone honestly trust what Torvik is spitting out in this situation? To clarify, I'm not saying we can't win. I'm saying that I'm with FloridaMan on this one...based upon what we've seen on the court this season, it's going to be an uphill battle.
Michigan is not the kind of team that has given us fits this season. The teams that have given us fits have the COMBINATION of both 1) a really good guard who can control the game and 2) all five guys on the court being able to space the floor and knock down 3 pointers. Understandably, this has been a bad matchup for us because our bigs (Tomi, Z, Mirk) are very uncomfortable closing out to shooters and love to sit in drop coverage. When you face a team of that ability, you can't just sit in drop and give up those pick and pops. It forces us to mix up coverages, switch a lot, and play out of our comfort zone.
BUT ....
Michigan is not that team. Mara is non-shooter, and for all intents and purposes, so is Morez -- yes, I get he's shot it well in limited volume, but a Morez Johnson 3pt attempt is not the worst thing in the world when you're playing Michigan.
All in all -- am I advocating for penciling in the win just like we would, say, a random game against Rutgers? Absolutely no way! Michigan is as good as it gets in terms of college basketball teams this season. We all saw what they did to Purdue. HOWEVER, they aren't unbeatable.
With a full 5 days to prepare, returning back home, coming off a disappointing loss.... I'd be VERY surprised if Illinois doesn't come out with its hair on fire, with a different level of focus / attention to detail.
When we win!!!
Baby!!! ILL
