Week of 2/23 Bracketology

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#3      
Fly Illini Fly!
I’m a bit confused about the narrative that even if we beat scUM, we’re not even in play for a 1 seed. If I’m totally out of line, hand me my crow, BUT:

at this point in time, there seems to be 3 teams that are EXTREMELY well positioned for a 1seed: Michigan, Duke, Arizona. I hate to use the term “lock,” but it would take a bit of a collapse for one of those to NOT end up a 1.

That leaves the final spot up for grabs between UCONN, Iowa State, Houston. In the past week, all of those teams suffered pretty disappointing losses along with us (especially ISU and UCONN).

Iowa State still has a game left @AZ and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

Houston still has a game left @KU (tonight) and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

UCONN still has a game left against St John’s, albeit at home, and the Red Storm have not lost since Jan 3rd. Plus, the entire Big East tourney will be played on St John’s home court.

So, in that same stretch the rest of the way… if we beat Michigan and win one or two in the BTT, why isn’t Illinois in contention?

Just FYI, Illinois is still 4th in the NET:

IMG_0373.jpeg


AND 4th on Kenpom:

IMG_0372.jpeg
 
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#4      
Illinialldayeveryday
I don't think Purdue is losing the rest of the regular season and I trust Florida more than us right now. A 2 seed and St. Louis are in big trouble imo. That being said 3 seed is still dynamite.
 
#5      
NarrowJ
Illinialldayeveryday said:
I don't think Purdue is losing the rest of the regular season and I trust Florida more than us right now. A 2 seed and St. Louis are in big trouble imo. That being said 3 seed is still dynamite.
Click to expand...

Purdue still has 4 very losable games:

#15 MSU
@ OSU
@ NW
#24 Wisc

They lost at UCLA and Indiana, so they can absolutely also lose any (or multiple) of these four
 
#7      
NarrowJ
Illinialldayeveryday said:
True-but they also have 3 possible chances at q1 wins to stack up.
Click to expand...

Right Q1s are tough games, if they win all 4 and we lose another then we have a conversation, but I don't see both of those things happening

EDIT: May be more likely than I thought, Purdue has a 33% chance to go 4-0 in their remaining games according to Torvik (so just beat Michigan so we don't have to worry about it lol)
 
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#8      
21ChampaignSt
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I’m a bit confused about the narrative that even if we beat scUM, we’re not even in play for a 1 seed. If I’m totally out of line, hand me my crow, BUT:

at this point in time, there seems to be 3 teams that are EXTREMELY well positioned for a 1seed: Michigan, Duke, Arizona. I hate to use the term “lock,” but it would take a bit of a collapse for one of those to NOT end up a 1.

That leaves the final spot up for grabs between UCONN, Iowa State, Houston. In the past week, all of those teams suffered pretty disappointing losses along with us (especially ISU and UCONN).

Iowa State still has a game left @AZ and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

Houston still has a game left @KU (tonight) and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

UCONN still has a game left against St John’s, albeit at home, and the Red Storm have not lost since Jan 3rd. Plus, the entire Big East tourney will be played on St John’s home court.

So, in that same stretch the rest of the way… if we beat Michigan and win one or two in the BTT, why isn’t Illinois in contention?

Just FYI, Illinois is still 4th in the NET:

View attachment 47817

AND 4th on Kenpom:

View attachment 47818
Click to expand...
Agree with everything. But also, Florida has entered the chat. They may have the best chance to win out of all the aforementioned teams which would include probably 4 more Q1 wins, bringing their total to 12. For reference, the only way we can get to 12 now is with some help from IU and Northwestern moving into Q1.

Which, good for them. A month ago, I thought their ceiling was a 3. Now, their resume is finally catching up to their metrics.
 
#9      
Illini2010-11
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I’m a bit confused about the narrative that even if we beat scUM, we’re not even in play for a 1 seed. If I’m totally out of line, hand me my crow, BUT:

at this point in time, there seems to be 3 teams that are EXTREMELY well positioned for a 1seed: Michigan, Duke, Arizona. I hate to use the term “lock,” but it would take a bit of a collapse for one of those to NOT end up a 1.

That leaves the final spot up for grabs between UCONN, Iowa State, Houston. In the past week, all of those teams suffered pretty disappointing losses along with us (especially ISU and UCONN).

Iowa State still has a game left @AZ and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

Houston still has a game left @KU (tonight) and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

UCONN still has a game left against St John’s, albeit at home, and the Red Storm have not lost since Jan 3rd. Plus, the entire Big East tourney will be played on St John’s home court.

So, in that same stretch the rest of the way… if we beat Michigan and win one or two in the BTT, why isn’t Illinois in contention?

Just FYI, Illinois is still 4th in the NET:

View attachment 47817

AND 4th on Kenpom:

View attachment 47818
Click to expand...
The issue is that the last two regular season games for Illini are likely to be Quad 3 games. So we are really only looking at possibly adding one marquis Quad 1A win against Michigan until the B1G Tourney. It is hard to see how Illini can get a 1 seed with any more losses. I feel the Illini would need to win out for any discussion of a 1 seed. Then you get into discussion of if the Committee even takes into account the results of BTT.

The loss Saturday likely closes realistic path to a 1 seed. Winning the last 3 regular season games likely secures a 2 seed, regardless of BTT. Lose to Michigan and beat Oregon and MD, we are likely hovering the 2/3 seed line going into BTT.

The key for Illini is avoiding falling to the 4 line. I think two more wins will be enough to guarantee at least a 3 seed (assuming we do not take on a Quad 3 loss).
 
#10      
jrichisamazing
21ChampaignSt said:
Agree with everything. But also, Florida has entered the chat. They may have the best chance to win out of all the aforementioned teams which would include probably 4 more Q1 wins, bringing their total to 12. For reference, the only way we can get to 12 now is with some help from IU and Northwestern moving into Q1.

Which, good for them. A month ago, I thought their ceiling was a 3. Now, their resume is finally catching up to their metrics.
Click to expand...

This is how Torvik sees it too. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona with a +90% chance at a 1 seed. Then wide open after that...

UConn 27%
Florida 23%
Purdue 22%
Illinois 21%
Houston 16%
Iowa St 10%

A scenario I really wouldn't mind is UConn getting that 4th 1 seed and we are the top 2 seed, facing them in Houston.

I would like 1000x better than earning the 1 seed, but playing 2 seed Florida in the elite 8. Just goes to show that seeding isn't everything.
 
#11      
jrichisamazing
jrichisamazing said:
This is how Torvik sees it too. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona with a +90% chance at a 1 seed. Then wide open after that...

UConn 27%
Florida 23%
Purdue 22%
Illinois 21%
Houston 16%
Iowa St 10%

A scenario I really wouldn't mind is UConn getting that 4th 1 seed and we are the top 2 seed, facing them in Houston.

I would like 1000x better than earning the 1 seed, but playing 2 seed Florida in the elite 8. Just goes to show that seeding isn't everything.
Click to expand...

Also adding on to this. Here were the 1 seed chances on Friday.

Houston 30%
Iowa St 29%
Illinois 28%
Purdue 18%
UConn 17%
Florida 8%

That tells us how tight things are. 1 weekend of games changed things drastically.
 
#12      
Fly Illini Fly!
21ChampaignSt said:
Agree with everything. But also, Florida has entered the chat. They may have the best chance to win out of all the aforementioned teams which would include probably 4 more Q1 wins, bringing their total to 12. For reference, the only way we can get to 12 now is with some help from IU and Northwestern moving into Q1.

Which, good for them. A month ago, I thought their ceiling was a 3. Now, their resume is finally catching up to their metrics.
Click to expand...
True for the most part, but they do finish their season @KY. Rupp is never an easy place to walk in and get a win.
 
#14      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Kentucky got jobbed at the end of the Auburn game. Horrible call.

They’re a solid team that’s been competitive in all their games (certainly by Kentucky standards still disappointing).
 
#15      
IlliniFan42
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I’m a bit confused about the narrative that even if we beat scUM, we’re not even in play for a 1 seed. If I’m totally out of line, hand me my crow, BUT:

at this point in time, there seems to be 3 teams that are EXTREMELY well positioned for a 1seed: Michigan, Duke, Arizona. I hate to use the term “lock,” but it would take a bit of a collapse for one of those to NOT end up a 1.

That leaves the final spot up for grabs between UCONN, Iowa State, Houston. In the past week, all of those teams suffered pretty disappointing losses along with us (especially ISU and UCONN).

Iowa State still has a game left @AZ and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

Houston still has a game left @KU (tonight) and the B12 tournament. That could easily result in 2 more losses for them.

UCONN still has a game left against St John’s, albeit at home, and the Red Storm have not lost since Jan 3rd. Plus, the entire Big East tourney will be played on St John’s home court.

So, in that same stretch the rest of the way… if we beat Michigan and win one or two in the BTT, why isn’t Illinois in contention?

Just FYI, Illinois is still 4th in the NET:

View attachment 47817

AND 4th on Kenpom:

View attachment 47818
Click to expand...
My opinion is that we cannot go above UConn in the Committee's eyes. We lost this year to them handily and history is against us. The Tournament games mean next to nothing to teams that aren't fighting for the automatic qualifier. Every time I think the committee will value Tournament games, Selection Sunday proves me wrong.
 
#17      
JJE
Carrying over some discussion about Miami (OH) getting disrespected in the polls.

CBS has them as an 11 seed playing St. John’s. I can see St. John’s beating them by 20+.

Season 7 Nbc GIF by Brooklyn Nine-Nine
 
#19      
Fighter of the Nightman
Fly Illini Fly! said:
It's quite the stat:

We have 7 Q1 wins. 6 of them are Q1A wins after Texas Tech just moved up to #14.

The only Q1 that's not a Q1A is USC.

Northwestern, Missouri, and Indiana are close to being Q1.
Click to expand...
Yeah, our resume could look a LOT better with a few breaks in the NET Rankings ... I like to think that the Committee considers things like that.

Anywho, I thought I would look at the current Bracket Matrix and see the range of KenPom rankings on each side line. Then, I looked at how we have performed vs. teams in that bracket this season. Given the nature of the exercise, some results will show up more than once due to the varying seed lines having overlapping ranges.

Apologies if I missed any games here, an asterisk was added for each starter we had out for a given game.

Current Bracket Matrix by Seed Line & KenPom Ranking

#1 Seeds | #1 to #6
#1 Michigan, #2 Duke, #3 Arizona, #6 Houston

#2 Seeds | #4 to #11
#4 Illinois, #7 Purdue, #8 Iowa State, #11 UConn

#3 Seeds | #5 to #19
#5 Florida, #9 Gonzaga, #12 Nebraska, #19 Kansas

#4 Seeds | #10 to #18
#10 Michigan State, #13 Vanderbilt, #16 Texas Tech, #18 Virginia

#5 Seeds | #14 to #22
#14 Tennessee, #17 Arkansas, #20 Alabama, #22 St. John's (NY)

#6 Seeds | #15 to #31
#15 Louisville, #21 BYU, #30 North Carolina, #31 Kentucky

#7 Seeds | #23 to #29
#23 Utah State, #24 Saint Louis, #28 Villanova, #29 Wisconsin

#8 Seeds | #25 to #40
#25 NC State, #26 Iowa, #39 Miami (FL), #40 Clemson

#9 Seeds | #27 to #49
#27 St. Mary's, #32 Texas, #33 SMU, #49 UCF

#10 Seeds | #34 to #41
#34 Auburn, #37 Texas A&M, #38 Georgia, #41 Indiana

#11 Seeds | #35 to #84
#35 Santa Clara, #42 UCLA, #50 TCU, #52 Missouri, #57 USC, #84 Miami (OH)

#12 Seeds | #54 to #104
#54 Belmont, #55 USF, #77 Yale, #104 Liberty

#13 Seeds | #89 to #110
#89 Stephen F. Austin, #91 High Point, #103 UNC Wilmington, #110 Hawaii

#14 Seeds | #117 to #205
#117 North Dakota State, #126 Cal Baptist, #161 Troy, #205 Portland State

#15 Seeds | #133 to #156
#133 East Tennessee State, #141 Austin Peay, #147 Navy, #156 Wright State

#16 Seeds | #166 to #234
#166 Merrimack, #201 UT-Martin, #216 LIU, #218 Howard, #231 UMBC, #234 Bethune-Cookman


Illini Results vs. Each Seed Range

#1 Seeds - #1 to #6
N/A

#2 Seeds - #4 to #11 | Illini are 1-2
* (A) W 88-82 at #7 Purdue
* (A) L 82-85 in OT at #10 Michigan State
(N) L 61-74 vs. #11 UConn in New York, NY

#3 Seeds - #5 to #19 | Illini are 4-3
* (A) W 88-82 at #7 Purdue
* (A) L 82-85 in OT at #10 Michigan State
(N) L 61-74 vs. #11 UConn in New York, NY
* (A) W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
(H) L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska
(N) W 75-62 vs. #14 Tennessee in Nashville, TN
(H) W 81-77 vs. #16 Texas Tech

#4 Seeds - #10 to #18 | Illini are 3-3
* (A) L 82-85 in OT at #10 Michigan State
(N) L 61-74 vs. #11 UConn in New York, NY
* (A) W 78-69 at #12 Nebraska
(H) L 80-83 vs. #12 Nebraska
(N) W 75-62 vs. #14 Tennessee in Nashville, TN
(H) W 81-77 vs. #16 Texas Tech

#5 Seeds - #14 to #22 | Illini are 2-1
(N) W 75-62 vs. #14 Tennessee in Nashville, TN
(H) W 81-77 vs. #16 Texas Tech
(N) L 86-90 vs. #20 Alabama in Chicago, IL

#6 Seeds - #15 to #31 | Illini are 2-2
(H) W 81-77 vs. #16 Texas Tech
(N) L 86-90 vs. #20 Alabama in Chicago, IL
(A) W 75-69 at #26 Iowa
** (H) L 90-92 in OT vs. #29 Wisconsin

#7 Seeds - #23 to #29 | Illini are 1-1
(A) W 75-69 at #26 Iowa
** (H) L 90-92 in OT vs. #29 Wisconsin

#8 Seeds - #25 to #40 | Illini are 2-1
(A) W 75-69 at #26 Iowa
** (H) L 90-92 in OT vs. #29 Wisconsin
(A) W 88-80 at #36 Ohio State

#9 Seeds - #27 to #49 | Illini are 3-1
** (H) L 90-92 in OT vs. #29 Wisconsin
(A) W 88-80 at #36 Ohio State
(H) W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana
* (H) W 75-66 vs. #47 Washington

#10 Seeds - #34 to #41 | Illini are 2-0
(A) W 88-80 at #36 Ohio State
(H) W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana

#11 Seeds - #35 to #84 | Illini are 8-1
(A) W 88-80 at #36 Ohio State
(H) W 71-51 vs. #41 Indiana
(A) L 94-95 in OT at #42 UCLA
* (H) W 75-66 vs. #47 Washington
(N) W 91-48 vs. #52 Missouri in St. Louis, MO
(A) W 101-65 at #57 USC
(A) W 79-68 at #70 Northwestern
* (H) W 84-44 vs. #70 Northwestern
* (H) W 77-67 vs. #72 Minnesota

#12 Seeds - #54 to #104 | Illini are 4-0
(A) W 101-65 at #57 USC
(A) W 79-68 at #70 Northwestern
* (H) W 84-44 vs. #70 Northwestern
* (H) W 77-67 vs. #72 Minnesota

#13 Seeds - #89 to #110
N/A

#14 Seeds - #117 to #205 | Illini are 4-0
* (H) W 89-70 vs. #128 Maryland
(H) W 87-73 vs. #130 UTRGV
(A) W 73-65 at #136 Penn State in Philadelphia, PA
(H) W 81-55 vs. #150 Rutgers

#15 Seeds - #133 to #156 | Illini are 2-0
(A) W 73-65 at #136 Penn State in Philadelphia, PA
(H) W 81-55 vs. #150 Rutgers

#16 Seeds - #166 to #234 | Illini are 1-0
(H) W 98-58 vs. #216 LIU
 
#20      
Fighter of the Nightman
^
Our remaining regular season games would be vs. #1 Michigan (#1 seed range), vs. #106 Oregon (#13 seed range) and at #128 Maryland (#14 seed range). So, here are some thoughts from this somewhat arbitrary exercise.

First, the Bad News...
1. In the "this team has a chance to win it all" discussion, it should be noted that we have not yet faced one of the truly elite, #1 seed-caliber teams that we would likely have to beat to achieve that ultimate goal. We have some very impressive wins and have looked extremely dominant at times, but Michigan will be our first test vs. that "Title Contender" tier. We have plenty of experience vs. our fellow #2/3 group, but it remains to be seen how we will handle Michigan. I'm cautiously optimistic, but they are (at least IMO) much better and more complete than anyone we've played.

2. The 3 losses to Alabama, Wisconsin and UCLA could be seen as a sign of worry for the #2/3 seed path, as these are the types of efforts vs. the types of teams that would currently be the ones potentially sending us home in the Second Round. Even if they wouldn't phrase it in this way, I think that's what really got people reacting so negatively to the UCLA loss ... it just seemed like SUCH a concerning microcosm of a game vs. a low seed we could face in the Second Round where we could have put them away and taking our foot off the gas led to a heartbreaking loss. A #11/10/7/6 seed knocking off a #2/3 seed often has the flavor of either our UCLA loss or our Wisconsin loss, IMO ... whether it's an opposing player going off or us dealing with injuries or tired legs, it remains undeniable that it STILL takes the higher seed "beating themselves" to some degree for the upset to happen ... and that's exactly what we did vs. both Wisconsin and UCLA.

3. Obviously we have had injuries to deal with, but our pattern after the win in Lincoln could be seen as a recipe for disaster in a single elimination event like the NCAA Tournament. Demolish Northwestern and take a good MSU team to the wire at their place while shorthanded? Follow it up with a disappointing effort (even IF down two starters) vs. Wisconsin at home. Look absolutely rock solid in blowout wins vs. NCAA Tournament-caliber teams like Indiana and USC? Follow it up with a second half collapse at UCLA. Teams that make the Final Four don't get there by this 2-on-1-off pattern.

Now, the Good News!
1. We are 4-3 in the games that would "get us to the Elite Eight" as a #2/3 seed. The losses? A neutral site loss to UConn way back in November, a buzzer beater loss to Nebraska in early December and an OT loss at Michigan State down a starter. So put another way, in these types of games we are 3-1 since that buzzer beater vs. Nebraska went in, and the only loss was the OT one at MSU without Boswell ... and none of those 3 wins occurred in Champaign. I think it's obvious a bit of a switch went off in the second half of the first Nebraska game, and we have been a much better team since then. If you also believe that, this "new/current" Illini squad has a very, VERY good track record of hitting the road and taking on a #2/3 seed-caliber team away from home and almost always coming away with a win. I can honestly say that while I'm a little worried about some Second Round letdown if our shots aren't falling, I have a lot of faith that these guys bringing their A-game in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.

2. Since the UConn disaster, we honestly haven't looked anything short of "good" for any amount of time besides the second half vs. UCLA. Teams have needed overtime, injuries on our end and usually BOTH to take down this Illini team ... we have at least for the most part been a well-oiled machine. A couple very small things break our way, and we quite easily avoid losses to MSU, Wisconsin and UCLA, and we are in the driver's seat for a #1 seed in Chicago ... VERY little has to change in either game for us to win any of them. Every team has good games and bad games, but overall the post-UConn-game Illini have been nothing short of a phenomenal basketball team.

3. On that last note, while I NEVER think it's "good" to get a loss, I think most of the frustration simply comes from so many results around the country going our way and us refusing to capitalize and gain a leg up on our "seed neighborhood" ... not because it couldn't be a silver lining lesson. Wisconsin is pretty clearly an outlier given we had TWO starters out, and with that in mind, UCLA is the first non-top 10 team that has sort of punched our guys in the face. I'm hoping this serves as a slice of humble pie, and I think it can be good for us in the long run. No more taking anything fore granted, and we were given a little glimpse on Saturday of what "Second Round exit" will look like and feel like. I'm positive the guys didn't enjoy that feeling, I am confident that there are plenty of lessons they'll take away from that one and I am HOPEFUL that it will be the final turning point where we begin our campaign toward the Final Four, with all systems go and the right perspective to get there.
 
#22      
Fly Illini Fly!
Here’s the history of #1 offenses in the tournament the last 10 years. Elite 8 seems to be the floor:

2025 — Duke; final 4
2024 — UCONN; national champion
2023 — Gonzaga; elite 8
2022 — Duke; final 4
2021 — Gonzaga; national runner up
2019 — Gonzaga; elite 8
2018 — Villanova; national champion
2017 — Oklahoma St; exception
2016 — North Carolina; national runner up
2015 — Wisconsin; national runner up
 
#23      
PizzaHutParkingLot
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Here’s the history of #1 offenses in the tournament the last 10 years. Elite 8 seems to be the floor:

2025 — Duke; final 4
2024 — UCONN; national champion
2023 — Gonzaga; elite 8
2022 — Duke; final 4
2021 — Gonzaga; national runner up
2019 — Gonzaga; elite 8
2018 — Villanova; national champion
2017 — Oklahoma St; exception
2016 — North Carolina; national runner up
2015 — Wisconsin; national runner up
Click to expand...
Haters be like, "Who was the coach of OKST?"
 
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