Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX

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#377      
I-L-L 1318
Second place is 1st loser said:
This is the most physical big that Mirk will play against....by FAR. He needs to be super effective shooting the three. MJJ biting on a pump fake does nothing but funnel him down to Mara. If Mirk doesn't make the three, it will be a one sided matchup because Morez is going to punish him in the post with Mirk far more likely to be in foul trouble. That's just how it works when one guy is interior based and one is perimeter based. If Mirk can pull him out of the lane and bury some shots, that would be a huge factor. If not, it's an absolutely terrible matchup for us.

I feel the same way about the Michigan guards as I do about Mirk. They have to make threes at a relatively high clip. I see us packing into a tight zone to try and eliminate disparity in front courts. If they beat us from the perimeter, we live with it. If they outscore us 36 to 8 in the paint, that would be irritating because we absolutely know their strength and we know the underbelly of what we are defensively.

Make their guards beat us and if they do, so be it
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For us to be effective tomorrow, Mara has to be out of the lane respecting Tomi as a shooter imo. And Tomi has to make them pay if Mara camps the lane.
 
#380      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I’d anticipate a heavy dosage of Tomi-Wagler ball screens at the top of the key. Get Mara in those actions (they’ve primarily been a drop coverage team), and open up the pick and pops.

Could also see us playing through Tomi as a facilitator.
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The problem is they’ll just take Mara off the court and put Morez at the 5, who’s a ton more capable of guarding in space.
 
#381      
Hoopster
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
The problem is they’ll just take Mara off the court and put Morez at the 5, who’s a ton more capable of guarding in space.
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Agree, there's nothing more I'd like to see than 40 minutes of Mara, probably get 15 min.
 
#382      
Iloveorangekoolaid
Fly Illini Fly! said:
The best 2seed is extremely significant because you get the worst 1seed and the worst 3seed.

If you’re the worst 2seed, you get the best 1seed and the best 3seed.

People don’t realize this, but in 2024 Illinois WAS the best 3seed. It’s just how the s curve thing works.
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We actually were number 12 on the seed list and Iowa State was number 8. So the worst 2 and 3 seed got paired together to make the other bracket rules work. We also were all mad because we got paired either 6 seed BYU who was number 17 on the seed list so we basically got the best 5 seed that year but then they lost to Duquesne lol This year there as so many B10 and B12 teams on the top 4 seed lines that the bracket probably won’t be able to follow the S curve very closely.
 
#383      
I-L-L 1318
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
The problem is they’ll just take Mara off the court and put Morez at the 5, who’s a ton more capable of guarding in space.
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Hopefully we get a friendly whistle (we always do at home, right? /s) I could see Rez being amped up with the crowd going at him and playing extra physical. Mirk is going to have his hands full on the glass.
 
#384      
New Creation
We are now fighting for 4th place and a triple bye. We lose this game. We are in double buy territory.
 
#386      
Fly Illini Fly!
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
This year there as so many B10 and B12 teams on the top 4 seed lines that the bracket probably won’t be able to follow the S curve very closely.
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Probably yes, but I don’t think it should change that the best 2seed will get UConn. That’s like the basic, basic scenario. There’s no Big East teams even close to the 2 line.
 
#388      
BrownTown
Fly Illini Fly! said:
The best 2seed is extremely significant because you get the worst 1seed and the worst 3seed.

If you’re the worst 2seed, you get the best 1seed and the best 3seed.

People don’t realize this, but in 2024 Illinois WAS the best 3seed. It’s just how the s curve thing works.
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Yet, we got what I felt to be the best 2 seed (by way of Iowa State being a media favorite for the last 1 seed and had an argument for such.) and the best 1 seed in UConn...


Kind of a crap shoot. We also SHOULD have gotten screwed over by playing a BYU team that would have been a 5 seed if not for the Sunday game pushing them to be a 6. They obviously lost out to Duquesne and that was our only break, NCAA tournament wise in recent memory.
 
#389      
Iloveorangekoolaid
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Probably yes, but I don’t think it should change that the best 2seed will get UConn. That’s like the basic, basic scenario. There’s no Big East teams even close to the 2 line.
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In 2024, the top 2 seed Tennessee didn’t get paired with the last 1 seed UNC. The other other top 4 seed from the ACC was Duke. Building the bracket is difficult and teams get moved up and down constantly to make the rules work.
 
#390      
lstewart53x3
Good vibes

IMG_0498.jpeg
 
#392      
Fly Illini Fly!
Iloveorangekoolaid said:
We actually were number 12 on the seed list and Iowa State was number 8. So the worst 2 and 3 seed got paired together to make the other bracket rules work. We also were all mad because we got paired either 6 seed BYU who was number 17 on the seed list so we basically got the best 5 seed that year but then they lost to Duquesne lol This year there as so many B10 and B12 teams on the top 4 seed lines that the bracket probably won’t be able to follow the S curve very closely.
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Iloveorangekoolaid said:
In 2024, the top 2 seed Tennessee didn’t get paired with the last 1 seed UNC. The other other top 4 seed from the ACC was Duke. Building the bracket is difficult and teams get moved up and down constantly to make the rules work.
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You are correct on the rankings part. Went back and checked, this was the committee’s seed rankings for 2024:

IMG_0397.jpeg


By rule of the S curve, we should’ve gotten UNC… which is even more frustrating.
 
#393      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
You are correct on the rankings part. Went back and checked, this was the committee’s seed rankings for 2024:

View attachment 47867

By rule of the S curve, we should’ve gotten UNC… which is even more frustrating.
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I’m not sure what happened here? They didn’t just adjust teams, they did the exact opposite of the S curve. Exactly upside down:

Baylor should have been in UConn’s bracket (1) but were in UNC’s (4)

Creighton should’ve been in Houston’s bracket (2) but were in Purdue’s (3)

Kentucky should’ve been in Purdue’s bracket (3) but were in Houston’s (2).

Illinois should’ve been in UNC’s bracket (4) but were in UConn’s (1).
 
#394      
HouTexIllini
Second place is 1st loser said:
This is the most physical big that Mirk will play against....by FAR. He needs to be super effective shooting the three. MJJ biting on a pump fake does nothing but funnel him down to Mara. If Mirk doesn't make the three, it will be a one sided matchup because Morez is going to punish him in the post with Mirk far more likely to be in foul trouble. That's just how it works when one guy is interior based and one is perimeter based. If Mirk can pull him out of the lane and bury some shots, that would be a huge factor. If not, it's an absolutely terrible matchup for us.

I feel the same way about the Michigan guards as I do about Mirk. They have to make threes at a relatively high clip. I see us packing into a tight zone to try and eliminate disparity in front courts. If they beat us from the perimeter, we live with it. If they outscore us 36 to 8 in the paint, that would be irritating because we absolutely know their strength and we know the underbelly of what we are defensively.

Make their guards beat us and if they do, so be it.
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Seems like a man who put some good thought in. I like it.

If one of their guards has a career night, I’ll curse you !
 
#395      
HouTexIllini
fuggles said:
I know fans get wound up about games like this, and I do too. But it is a basketball game. To be enjoyed. And that is my plan for tomorrow. Enjoy the game. Go Illini! Muck Fishigan.
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Agreed, this is the stance I’m taking.

Brad has good a good record vs Michigan, hoping that continues.
 
#398      
Fly Illini Fly!
BrownTown said:
Yet, we got what I felt to be the best 2 seed (by way of Iowa State being a media favorite for the last 1 seed and had an argument for such.) and the best 1 seed in UConn...


Kind of a crap shoot. We also SHOULD have gotten screwed over by playing a BYU team that would have been a 5 seed if not for the Sunday game pushing them to be a 6. They obviously lost out to Duquesne and that was our only break, NCAA tournament wise in recent memory.
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If we're being honest, that probably helped us. Gonzaga was a better team than BYU that year, and BYU was overseeded.

Also, at the time, I believe Gonzaga had a streak of 9 consecutive sweet sixteens. If they were the 6 and we were the 3.... I personally, in the moment, liked that we got BYU instead.

I was more upset that we got Iowa State AND UConn. The brackets had ISU as a 1seed -- AT WORST the best 2seed. For them to be seeded as the worst 2seed was insanity.

And then we also got UConn as our 1seed. That path was murderers' row.
 
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#400      
Vinegarben
Tonight's game against Michigan is a measuring stick on how far the Illini can go in the NCAA tourney. They are at home against a top 2-3 team, evenly matched with size, depth and talent. The Illini are very good when they come to play and that has been an issue for them all year. The deciding factor for me will be if the Illini play solid defense and keep the Wolverines from making a bunch of 3's and staying out of foul trouble. I think the Illini will need at least 12-15 3's and MUST make free throws to win.
 
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